Sustainable Road Management in Texas : network-level flexible pavement structural condition analysis using data mining techniques

The research team recognized the value of network-level Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) testing to evaluate the structural condition trends of flexible pavements. However, practical limitations due to the cost of testing, traffic control and safety concerns and the ability to test a large network may discourage some agencies from conducting the network-level FWD testing. For this reason, the surrogate measure of the Structural Condition Index (SCI) is suggested for use. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and to develop a prediction method of the structural condition trends for network-level applications which does not require FWD testing. The research team first evaluated the existing and historical pavement condition, distress, ride, traffic and other data attributes in the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Pavement Maintenance Information System (PMIS), applied data mining strategies to the data, discovered useful patterns and knowledge for SCI value prediction, and finally provided a reasonable measure of pavement structural condition which is correlated to the SCI. To evaluate the performance of the developed prediction approach, a case study was conducted using the SCI data calculated from the FWD data collected on flexible pavements over a 5-year period (2005 – 09) from 354 PMIS sections representing 37 pavement sections on the Texas highway system. The preliminary study results showed that the proposed approach can be used as a supportive pavement structural index in the event when FWD deflection data is not available and help pavement managers identify the timing and appropriate treatment level of preventive maintenance activities.

Organisational knowledge integration: towards a conceptual framework

This study analyses organisational knowledge integration processes from a multi-level and systemic perspective, with particular reference to the case of Fujitsu. A conceptual framework for knowledge integration is suggested focusing on team-building capability, capturing and utilising individual tacit knowledge, and communication networks for integrating dispersed specialist knowledge required in the development of new products and services. The research highlights that knowledge integration occurring in the innovation process is a result of knowledge exposure, its distribution and embodiment and finally its transfer, which leads to innovation capability and competitive advantage in firm.

A general method to determine sampling windows for nonlinear mixed effects models with an application to population pharmacokinetic studies

Optimal design methods have been proposed to determine the best sampling times when sparse blood sampling is required in clinical pharmacokinetic studies. However, the optimal blood sampling time points may not be feasible in clinical practice. Sampling windows, a time interval for blood sample collection, have been proposed to provide flexibility in blood sampling times while preserving efficient parameter estimation. Because of the complexity of the population pharmacokinetic models, which are generally nonlinear mixed effects models, there is no analytical solution available to determine sampling windows. We propose a method for determination of sampling windows based on MCMC sampling techniques. The proposed method attains a stationary distribution rapidly and provides time-sensitive windows around the optimal design points. The proposed method is applicable to determine sampling windows for any nonlinear mixed effects model although our work focuses on an application to population pharmacokinetic models.

Genetic algorithms to schedule container transfers at multimodal terminals

Optimising the container transfer schedule at the multimodal terminals is known to be NP-hard, which implies that the best solution becomes computationally infeasible as problem sizes increase. Genetic Algorithm (GA) techniques are used to reduce container handling/transfer times and ships' time at the port by speeding up handling operations. The GA is chosen due to the relatively good results that have been reported even with the simplest GA implementations to obtain near-optimal solutions in reasonable time. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled throughput time as well as different strategies such as the alternative plant layouts, storage policies and number of yard machines. A real data set used for the solution and subsequent sensitivity analysis is applied to the alternative plant layouts, storage policies and number of yard machines.

Assessing of circuit breaker restrike risks using computer simulation and wavelet analysis

A breaker restrike is an abnormal arcing phenomenon, leading to a possible breaker failure. Eventually, this failure leads to interruption of the transmission and distribution of the electricity supply system until the breaker is replaced. Before 2008, there was little evidence in the literature of monitoring techniques based on restrike measurement and interpretation produced during switching of capacitor banks and shunt reactor banks in power systems. In 2008 a non-intrusive radiometric restrike measurement method and a restrike hardware detection algorithm were developed by M.S. Ramli and B. Kasztenny. However, the limitations of the radiometric measurement method are a band limited frequency response as well as limitations in amplitude determination. Current restrike detection methods and algorithms require the use of wide bandwidth current transformers and high voltage dividers. A restrike switch model using Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Wavelet Transforms which support diagnostics are proposed. Restrike phenomena become a new diagnostic process using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms for online interrupter monitoring. This research project investigates the restrike switch model Parameter „A. dielectric voltage gradient related to a normal and slowed case of the contact opening velocity and the escalation voltages, which can be used as a diagnostic tool for a vacuum circuit-breaker (CB) at service voltages between 11 kV and 63 kV. During current interruption of an inductive load at current quenching or chopping, a transient voltage is developed across the contact gap. The dielectric strength of the gap should rise to a point to withstand this transient voltage. If it does not, the gap will flash over, resulting in a restrike. A straight line is fitted through the voltage points at flashover of the contact gap. This is the point at which the gap voltage has reached a value that exceeds the dielectric strength of the gap. This research shows that a change in opening contact velocity of the vacuum CB produces a corresponding change in the slope of the gap escalation voltage envelope. To investigate the diagnostic process, an ATP restrike switch model was modified with contact opening velocity computation for restrike waveform signature analyses along with experimental investigations. This also enhanced a mathematical CB model with the empirical dielectric model for SF6 (sulphur hexa-fluoride) CBs at service voltages above 63 kV and a generalised dielectric curve model for 12 kV CBs. A CB restrike can be predicted if there is a similar type of restrike waveform signatures for measured and simulated waveforms. The restrike switch model applications are used for: computer simulations as virtual experiments, including predicting breaker restrikes; estimating the interrupter remaining life of SF6 puffer CBs; checking system stresses; assessing point-on-wave (POW) operations; and for a restrike detection algorithm development using Wavelet Transforms. A simulated high frequency nozzle current magnitude was applied to an Equation (derived from the literature) which can calculate the life extension of the interrupter of a SF6 high voltage CB. The restrike waveform signatures for a medium and high voltage CB identify its possible failure mechanism such as delayed opening, degraded dielectric strength and improper contact travel. The simulated and measured restrike waveform signatures are analysed using Matlab software for automatic detection. Experimental investigation of a 12 kV vacuum CB diagnostic was carried out for the parameter determination and a passive antenna calibration was also successfully developed with applications for field implementation. The degradation features were also evaluated with a predictive interpretation technique from the experiments, and the subsequent simulation indicates that the drop in voltage related to the slow opening velocity mechanism measurement to give a degree of contact degradation. A predictive interpretation technique is a computer modeling for assessing switching device performance, which allows one to vary a single parameter at a time; this is often difficult to do experimentally because of the variable contact opening velocity. The significance of this thesis outcome is that it is a non-intrusive method developed using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms to predict and interpret a breaker restrike risk. The measurements on high voltage circuit-breakers can identify degradation that can interrupt the distribution and transmission of an electricity supply system. It is hoped that the techniques for the monitoring of restrike phenomena developed by this research will form part of a diagnostic process that will be valuable for detecting breaker stresses relating to the interrupter lifetime. Suggestions for future research, including a field implementation proposal to validate the restrike switch model for ATP system studies and the hot dielectric strength curve model for SF6 CBs, are given in Appendix A.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Dirichlet process mixture models for unsupervised clustering of symptoms in Parkinson's disease

In this paper, the goal of identifying disease subgroups based on differences in observed symptom profile is considered. Commonly referred to as phenotype identification, solutions to this task often involve the application of unsupervised clustering techniques. In this paper, we investigate the application of a Dirichlet Process mixture (DPM) model for this task. This model is defined by the placement of the Dirichlet Process (DP) on the unknown components of a mixture model, allowing for the expression of uncertainty about the partitioning of observed data into homogeneous subgroups. To exemplify this approach, an application to phenotype identification in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is considered, with symptom profiles collected using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Clustering, Dirichlet Process mixture, Parkinson’s disease, UPDRS.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Visualising mathematical knowledge and understanding

Contemporary mathematics education attempts to instil within learners the conceptualization of mathematics as a highly organized and inter-connected set of ideas. To support this, a means to graphically represent this organization of ideas is presented which reflects the cognitive mechanisms that shape a learner’s understanding. This organisation of information may then be analysed, with the view to informing the design of mathematics instruction in face-to-face and/or computer-mediated learning environments. However, this analysis requires significant work to develop both theory and practice.

Integration of medical images to the teaching of systematic pathology : an evaluation of relevance

A sound knowledge of pathological disease processes is required for professional practice within health professions. The project described in this paper reviewed the resources currently available for the delivery of systematic pathology tutorials. Additional complementary resources were developed and the inclusion of these additional learning resources in practical tutorial sessions was evaluated for their impact on student learning. Student evaluation of the learning resources was undertaken across one semester with two different cohorts of health profession students using questionnaires and focus group discussion. Both cohorts reported an enhancement to their understanding of pathological disease processes through the use of the additional resources. Results indicate student perception of the value of the resources correlates with staff perception and is independent of prior experiences.

Maintaining a cognitive map in darkness : the need to fuse boundary knowledge with path integration

Spatial navigation requires the processing of complex, disparate and often ambiguous sensory data. The neurocomputations underpinning this vital ability remain poorly understood. Controversy remains as to whether multimodal sensory information must be combined into a unified representation, consistent with Tolman's "cognitive map", or whether differential activation of independent navigation modules suffice to explain observed navigation behaviour. Here we demonstrate that key neural correlates of spatial navigation in darkness cannot be explained if the path integration system acted independently of boundary (landmark) information. In vivo recordings demonstrate that the rodent head direction (HD) system becomes unstable within three minutes without vision. In contrast, rodents maintain stable place fields and grid fields for over half an hour without vision. Using a simple HD error model, we show analytically that idiothetic path integration (iPI) alone cannot be used to maintain any stable place representation beyond two to three minutes. We then use a measure of place stability based on information theoretic principles to prove that featureless boundaries alone cannot be used to improve localization above chance level. Having shown that neither iPI nor boundaries alone are sufficient, we then address the question of whether their combination is sufficient and - we conjecture - necessary to maintain place stability for prolonged periods without vision. We addressed this question in simulations and robot experiments using a navigation model comprising of a particle filter and boundary map. The model replicates published experimental results on place field and grid field stability without vision, and makes testable predictions including place field splitting and grid field rescaling if the true arena geometry differs from the acquired boundary map. We discuss our findings in light of current theories of animal navigation and neuronal computation, and elaborate on their implications and significance for the design, analysis and interpretation of experiments.

Regional integration 2.0 : facilitating regional integration and development with collaborative technologies

The current global economic instability and the vulnerability of small nations provide the impetus for greater integration between the countries of the South Pacific region. This exercise is critical for their survival. Past efforts of regional integration in the South Pacific have mostly failed. However, today’s IT collaborative capabilities provide the opportunity to develop a shared IT infrastructure to facilitate integration in the South Pacific. In developing an IT-backed model of regional integration, this study identifies and reports on the antecedents of the current stage for integration in the Pacific. We conducted interviews with twenty five individuals from various sectors and find that while most respondents were optimistic about the potential of IT-backed regional integration, significant challenges exists. The study identifies and discusses these challenges providing policy implications to stakeholders in the regional integration process. The findings will assist in suggesting a model of regional integration 2.0 for the Pacific region.

Measurements of particle emissions from nanotechnology processes, with assessment of measuring techniques and workplace controls

The overall aim of this project was to contribute to existing knowledge regarding methods for measuring characteristics of airborne nanoparticles and controlling occupational exposure to airborne nanoparticles, and to gather data on nanoparticle emission and transport in various workplaces. The scope of this study involved investigating the characteristics and behaviour of particles arising from the operation of six nanotechnology processes, subdivided into nine processes for measurement purposes. It did not include the toxicological evaluation of the aerosol and therefore, no direct conclusion was made regarding the health effects of exposure to these particles. Our research included real-time measurement of sub, and supermicrometre particle number and mass concentration, count median diameter, and alveolar deposited surface area using condensation particle counters, an optical particle counter, DustTrak photometer, scanning mobility particle sizer, and nanoparticle surface area monitor, respectively. Off-line particle analysis included scanning and transmission electron microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometry, and thermal optical analysis of elemental carbon. Sources of fibrous and non-fibrous particles were included.

A variable-stepsize Jacobian-free exponential integrator for simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media : application to wood drying

A Jacobian-free variable-stepsize method is developed for the numerical integration of the large, stiff systems of differential equations encountered when simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media. Our method utilises the exponential Rosenbrock-Euler method, which is explicit in nature and requires a matrix-vector product involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix at each step of the integration process. These products can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods, which permit a large integration stepsize to be utilised without having to precondition the iterations. This means that our method is truly "Jacobian-free" - the Jacobian need never be formed or factored during the simulation. We assess the performance of the new algorithm for simulating the drying of softwood. Numerical experiments conducted for both low and high temperature drying demonstrates that the new approach outperforms (in terms of accuracy and efficiency) existing simulation codes that utilise the backward Euler method via a preconditioned Newton-Krylov strategy.

Jabberwocky : the complexities of mathematical English

Mathematical English is a unique language based on ordinary English, with the addition of highly stylised formal symbol systems. Some words have a redefined status. Mathematical English has its own lexicon, syntax, semantics and literature. It is more difficult to understand than ordinary English. Ability in basic interpersonal communication does not necessarily result in proficiency in the use of mathematical English. The complex nature of mathematical English may impact upon the ability of students to succeed in mathematical and numeracy assessment. This article presents a review of the literature about the complexities of mathematical English. It includes examples of more than fifty language features that have been shown to add to the challenge of interpreting mathematical texts. Awareness of the complexities of mathematical English is an essential skill needed by mathematics teachers when teaching and when designing assessment tasks.