Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. Methods and Findings A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. Conclusions This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Veracity of the archive : a research approach to the collection and verification of urban morphological records using qualitative data analysis software

Critical to the research of urban morphologists is the availability of historical records that document the urban transformation of the study area. However, thus far little work has been done towards an empirical approach to the validation of archival data in this field. Outlined in this paper, therefore, is a new methodology for validating the accuracy of archival records and mapping data, accrued through the process of urban morphological research, so as to establish a reliable platform from which analysis can proceed. The paper particularly addresses the problems of inaccuracies in existing curated historical information, as well as errors in archival research by student assistants, which together give rise to unacceptable levels of uncertainty in the documentation. The paper discusses the problems relating to the reliability of historical information, demonstrates the importance of data verification in urban morphological research, and proposes a rigorous method for objective testing of collected archival data through the use of qualitative data analysis software.

Australian nurses volunteering for the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 : a review of experience and analysis of data collected by the Tsunami Volunteer Hotline

This paper provides an outline of the work undertaken by nurses who participated in the relief effort as members of Australian medical teams during the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami response. This profile is contrasted with the information provided by nurses who registered their interest in volunteering to help via the Australian Tsunami Hotline. The paper provides an overview of the skills and background of the nurses who provided information to the hotline and describes the range and extent of experience among this cohort of potential volunteers. This data is compared to nursing workforce data and internal rates of volunteering in Australia. The paper concludes that further research is necessary to examine the motivations of and disincentives for nurses to volunteer for overseas (disaster) work and, to develop an improved understanding within the discipline of the skills and experience required of volunteer responders. Further, it is argued that the development of standards for the collection of disaster health volunteer data would assist future responses and provide better tools for developing an improved understanding of disaster volunteering.

An analysis of DNA methylation in human adipose tissue reveals differential modification of obesity genes before and after gastric bypass and weight loss

Background Environmental factors can influence obesity by epigenetic mechanisms. Adipose tissue plays a key role in obesity-related metabolic dysfunction, and gastric bypass provides a model to investigate obesity and weight loss in humans. Results Here, we investigate DNA methylation in adipose tissue from obese women before and after gastric bypass and significant weight loss. In total, 485,577 CpG sites were profiled in matched, before and after weight loss, subcutaneous and omental adipose tissue. A paired analysis revealed significant differential methylation in omental and subcutaneous adipose tissue. A greater proportion of CpGs are hypermethylated before weight loss and increased methylation is observed in the 3′ untranslated region and gene bodies relative to promoter regions. Differential methylation is found within genes associated with obesity, epigenetic regulation and development, such as CETP, FOXP2, HDAC4, DNMT3B, KCNQ1 and HOX clusters. We identify robust correlations between changes in methylation and clinical trait, including associations between fasting glucose and HDAC4, SLC37A3 and DENND1C in subcutaneous adipose. Genes investigated with differential promoter methylation all show significantly different levels of mRNA before and after gastric bypass. Conclusions This is the first study reporting global DNA methylation profiling of adipose tissue before and after gastric bypass and associated weight loss. It provides a strong basis for future work and offers additional evidence for the role of DNA methylation of adipose tissue in obesity.

The suffix-free-prefix-free hash function construction and its indifferentiability security analysis

In this paper, we observe that in the seminal work on indifferentiability analysis of iterated hash functions by Coron et al. and in subsequent works, the initial value (IV) of hash functions is fixed. In addition, these indifferentiability results do not depend on the Merkle–Damgård (MD) strengthening in the padding functionality of the hash functions. We propose a generic n -bit-iterated hash function framework based on an n -bit compression function called suffix-free-prefix-free (SFPF) that works for arbitrary IV s and does not possess MD strengthening. We formally prove that SFPF is indifferentiable from a random oracle (RO) when the compression function is viewed as a fixed input-length random oracle (FIL-RO). We show that some hash function constructions proposed in the literature fit in the SFPF framework while others that do not fit in this framework are not indifferentiable from a RO. We also show that the SFPF hash function framework with the provision of MD strengthening generalizes any n -bit-iterated hash function based on an n -bit compression function and with an n -bit chaining value that is proven indifferentiable from a RO.

Improved Security Analysis of Fugue-256 (Poster)

We present some improved analytical results as part of the ongoing work on the analysis of Fugue-256 hash function, a second round candidate in the NIST’s SHA3 competition. First we improve Aumasson and Phans’ integral distinguisher on the 5.5 rounds of the final transformation of Fugue-256 to 16.5 rounds. Next we improve the designers’ meet-in-the-middle preimage attack on Fugue-256 from 2480 time and memory to 2416. Finally, we comment on possible methods to obtain free-start distinguishers and free-start collisions for Fugue-256.

Side Channel Analysis of Some Hash Based MACs: A Response to SHA-3 Requirements

The forthcoming NIST’s Advanced Hash Standard (AHS) competition to select SHA-3 hash function requires that each candidate hash function submission must have at least one construction to support FIPS 198 HMAC application. As part of its evaluation, NIST is aiming to select either a candidate hash function which is more resistant to known side channel attacks (SCA) when plugged into HMAC, or that has an alternative MAC mode which is more resistant to known SCA than the other submitted alternatives. In response to this, we perform differential power analysis (DPA) on the possible smart card implementations of some of the recently proposed MAC alternatives to NMAC (a fully analyzed variant of HMAC) and HMAC algorithms and NMAC/HMAC versions of some recently proposed hash and compression function modes. We show that the recently proposed BNMAC and KMDP MAC schemes are even weaker than NMAC/HMAC against the DPA attacks, whereas multi-lane NMAC, EMD MAC and the keyed wide-pipe hash have similar security to NMAC against the DPA attacks. Our DPA attacks do not work on the NMAC setting of MDC-2, Grindahl and MAME compression functions.

An updated analysis of death data during the Morwell mine fire

An updated analysis of the previous analysis available here: http://eprints.qut.edu.au/76230/

Determination of effective moisture diffusivity of banana using thermogravimetric analysis

Drying has been extensively used as a food preservation procedure. The longer life attained by drying is however accompanied by huge energy consumption and deterioration of quality. Moisture diffusivity is an important factor that is considered essential to understand for design, analysis, and optimization of drying processes for food and other materials. Without an accurate value of moisture diffusivity, drying kinetics, energy consumption, quality attributes such as shrinkage, texture, and microstructure cannot be predicted properly. However, moisture diffusivities differ due to variation of composition and microstructure of foodstuff and drying variables. For a particular food, it changes with many factors including moisture content, water holding capacity, process variables and physiochemical attributes of food. Published information on moisture diffusivities of banana is inadequate and sometimes inconsistent due to lack of precise repeatable analysis techniques. In this work, the effective moisture diffusivity of banana was determined by Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA), which ensures precise measurements and reproduction of experiments. A TGA Q500 V20.13 Build 39 was deployed to obtain the drying curve of the food material. It was found that effective moisture diffusivity ranged from 6.63 x10-10 to 1.03 x10-9 and 1.34 x10-10 to 6.60 x10-10 for isothermal at 70 0C and non-isothermal process respectively.These values are consistent with the value of moisture diffusivity found in the literature.

Regional aviation and economic growth : cointegration and causality analysis in Australia

Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.

Latent class analysis reveals distinct subgroups of patients based on symptom occurrence and demographic and clinical characteristics

Context Cancer patients experience a broad range of physical and psychological symptoms as a result of their disease and its treatment. On average, these patients report ten unrelieved and co-occurring symptoms. Objectives To determine if subgroups of oncology outpatients receiving active treatment (n=582) could be identified based on their distinct experience with thirteen commonly occurring symptoms; to determine whether these subgroups differed on select demographic, and clinical characteristics; and to determine if these subgroups differed on quality of life (QOL) outcomes. Methods Demographic, clinical, and symptom data from one Australian and two U.S. studies were combined. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify patient subgroups with distinct symptom experiences based on self-report data on symptom occurrence using the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale (MSAS). Results Four distinct latent classes were identified (i.e., All Low (28.0%), Moderate Physical and Lower Psych (26.3%), Moderate Physical and Higher Psych (25.4%), All High (20.3%)). Age, gender, education, cancer diagnosis, and presence of metastatic disease differentiated among the latent classes. Patients in the All High class had the worst QOL scores. Conclusion Findings from this study confirm the large amount of interindividual variability in the symptom experience of oncology patients. The identification of demographic and clinical characteristics that place patients are risk for a higher symptom burden can be used to guide more aggressive and individualized symptom management interventions.

Sectional analysis of stormwater treatment performance of a constructed wetland

Constructed wetlands are among the most common Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) measures for stormwater treatment. These systems have been extensively studied to understand their performance and influential treatment processes. Unfortunately, most past studies have been undertaken considering a wetland system as a lumped system with a primary focus on the reduction of the event mean concentration (EMC) values of specific pollutant species or total pollutant load removal. This research study adopted an innovative approach by partitioning the inflow runoff hydrograph and then investigating treatment performance in each partition and their relationships with a range of hydraulic factors. The study outcomes confirmed that influenced by rainfall characteristics, the constructed wetland displays different treatment characteristics for the initial and later sectors of the runoff hydrograph. The treatment of small rainfall events (<15 mm) is comparatively better at the beginning of runoff events while the trends in pollutant load reductions for large rainfall events (>15 mm) are generally lower at the beginning and gradually increase towards the end of rainfall events. This highlights the importance of ensuring that the inflow into a constructed wetland has low turbulence in order to achieve consistent treatment performance for both, small and large rainfall events.

Women at work! evaluating equal employment policies and outcomes in construction

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine equal employment policies in Australia’s male-dominated construction industry and categorise the types of activities undertaken against an equal employment typology to identify links to outcomes for women in the form of increased participation and management. Design/methodology/approach To explore the issue of low representation of women in construction through the content analysis of 83 construction organisations’ equal employment opportunity (EEO) reports. Findings This industry is not engaging with equal employment issues and the numbers of women working in the industry and/or management are based on individual decision rather than an institutional commitment to equality in diversity. Research limitations/implications Australian legislation mandates organisational reporting of relevant data and offers public access to this information offering a unique data set. Practical implications An ageing population means that the predominately older male workforce is leaving construction in greater numbers with fewer potential replacements making new labour markets a vital consideration. Social implications Legislation and organisational policies designed to promote EEO for women have existed in numerous countries for decades. One objective of this legislation was to reduce male domination in senior positions and industries/occupations where women were under-represented. Despite this, few women are employed in construction in operational or management roles worldwide. Originality/value This study offers a comprehensive analysis of a male-dominated industry in one jurisdiction rather than a few selected cases and uses a broader rigorous typology for analysis that acknowledges both equal and different treatment options.