Beyond the 'at risk' individual : housing and the eradication of poverty to prevent homelessness

The 2008 White Paper on Homelessness (Australian Government 2008) constitutes a watershed initiative outlining the future for Australian homelessness policy. This contemporary homelessness policy is diverse and it continues to unfold and evolve during implementation. Nevertheless, it is characterised by the explicit intention to move beyond the former crisis based system, and the espousal of achieving measurable outcomes of permanently ending homelessness (Australian Government 2008).

Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Measurement of alcohol craving

Despite considerable research activity and application in treatment, the construct of craving remains poorly understood. We propose that cravings and urges are cognitive–emotional events in time, characterised by frequency, duration, intensity and salience. Commonly used measures of alcohol craving are reviewed, and their strengths and weaknesses identified. Most measures confound craving with behaviours, or with separable cognitive phenomena such as expectancies, intentions, or perceived behavioural control. These confounds have limited our advances in understanding the determinants and consequences of craving. Based on the criteria applied in this review, among the better performing multi-item measures are the Penn Alcohol Craving Scale and Obsessive subscale of the Obsessive–Compulsive Drinking Scale. Optimal assessment strategies are likely to involve daily assessments of peak intensity of cravings, desires or urges and of the frequency and duration of craving episodes. Of particular interest are measures of intensity at times when individuals are at risk of drinking or of other functional impacts from craving.

Craving as a predictor of treatment outcomes in heavy drinkers with comorbid depressed mood

Alcohol and depression comorbidity is high and is associated with poorer outcomes following treatment. The ability to predict likely treatment response would be advantageous for treatment planning. Craving has been widely studied as a potential predictor, but has performed inconsistently. The effect of comorbid depression on craving's predictive performance however, has been largely neglected, despite demonstrated associations between negative affect and craving. The current study examined the performance of craving, measured pretreatment using the Obsessive subscale of the Obsessive Compulsive Drinking Scale, in predicting 18-week and 12-month post-treatment alcohol use outcomes in a sample of depressed drinkers. Data for the current study were collected during a randomized controlled trial (Baker, Kavanagh, Kay-Lambkin, Hunt, Lewin, Carr, & Connolly, 2010) comparing treatments for comorbid alcohol and depression. A subset of 260 participants from that trial with a Timeline Followback measure of alcohol consumption was analyzed. Pre-treatment craving was a significant predictor of average weekly alcohol consumption at 18 weeks and of frequency of alcohol binges at 18 weeks and 12months, but pre-treatment depressive mood was not predictive, and effects of Baseline craving were independent of depressive mood. Results suggest a greater ongoing risk from craving than from depressive mood at Baseline.

Loss of breast epithelial marker hCLCA2 promotes epithelial to mesenchymal transition and indicates higher risk of metastasis

Transition between epithelial and mesenchymal states is a feature of both normal development and tumor progression. We report that expression of chloride channel accessory protein hCLCA2 is a characteristic of epithelial differentiation in the immortalized MCF10A and HMLE models, while induction of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition by cell dilution, TGFβ or mesenchymal transcription factors sharply reduces hCLCA2 levels. Attenuation of hCLCA2 expression by lentiviral small hairpin RNA caused cell overgrowth and focus formation, enhanced migration and invasion, and increased mammosphere formation in methylcellulose. These changes were accompanied by downregulation of E-cadherin and upregulation of mesenchymal markers such as vimentin and fibronectin. Moreover, hCLCA2 expression is greatly downregulated in breast cancer cells with a mesenchymal or claudin-low profile. These observations suggest that loss of hCLCA2 may promote metastasis. We find that higher-than-median expression of hCLCA2 is associated with a one-third lower rate of metastasis over an 18-year period among breast cancer patients compared with lower-than-median (n=344, unfiltered for subtype). Thus, hCLCA2 is required for epithelial differentiation, and its loss during tumor progression contributes to metastasis. Overexpression of hCLCA2 has been reported to inhibit cell proliferation and is accompanied by increases in chloride current at the plasma membrane and reduced intracellular pH (pHi). We found that knockdown cells have sharply reduced chloride current and higher pHi, both characteristics of tumor cells. These results suggest a mechanism for the effects on differentiation. Loss of hCLCA2 may allow escape from pHi homeostatic mechanisms, permitting the higher intracellular and lower extracellular pH that are characteristic of aggressive tumor cells.

School-based programs for increasing connectedness and reducing risk behavior : a systematic review

School connectedness has a significant impact on adolescent outcomes, including reducing risk taking behavior. This paper critically examines the literature on school-based programs targeting increased connectedness for reductions in risk taking. Fourteen articles describing seven different school-based programs were reviewed. Programs drew on a range of theories to increase school connectedness, and evaluations conducted for the majority of programs demonstrated positive changes in school connectedness, risk behavior, or a combination of the two. Many of the reviewed programs involved widespread school system change, however, which is frequently a complex and time consuming task. Future research is needed to examine the extent of intervention complexity required to result in change. This review also showed a lack of consistency in definitions and measurement of connectedness as well as few mediation analyses testing assumptions of impact on risk taking behavior through increases in school connectedness. Additionally, this review revealed very limited evaluation of the elements of multi-component programs that are most effective in increasing school connectedness and reducing adolescent risk taking.

Children with autistic spectrum disorder have an associated risk of depression

Over recent years there has been an increase in the literature examining youth with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). The growth in this area of research has highlighted a significant gap in our understanding of suitable interventions for people with ASD and the treatment of co-occurring psychiatric disorders.1-3 Children with ASD are at increased risk of experiencing depressive symptoms and developing depression; however with very few proven interventions available for preventing and treating depression in children with ASD, there is a need for further research in this area.

Relationships between self-reported bicycling injuries and perceived risk of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

The focus of governments on increasing active travel has motivated renewed interest in cycling safety. Bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers so understanding the relationship among factors in bicyclist crash risk is critically important for identifying effective policy tools, for informing bicycle infrastructure investments, and for identifying high risk bicycling contexts. This study aims to better understand the complex relationships between bicyclist self reported injuries resulting from crashes (e.g. hitting a car) and non-crashes (e.g. spraining an ankle) and perceived risk of cycling as a function of cyclist exposure, rider conspicuity, riding environment, rider risk aversion, and rider ability. Self reported data from 2,500 Queensland cyclists are used to estimate a series of seemingly unrelated regressions to examine the relationships among factors. The major findings suggest that perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates, nor do injury rates influence perceived risks of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling as risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding, tend to always wear mandatory helmets and front lights, and lower their perception of risk by increasing days per week of riding and by increasing riding proportion on bicycle paths. Riders who always wear helmets have lower crash injury risk. Increasing the number of days per week riding tends to decrease both crash injury and non crash injury risk (e.g. a sprain). Further work is needed to replicate some of the findings in this study.

Association between ambient ultraviolet radiation and risk of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVES: Ecological studies have suggested an inverse relationship between latitude and risks of some cancers. However, associations between solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and esophageal cancer risk have not been fully explored. We therefore investigated the association between nevi, freckles, and measures of ambient UVR over the life-course with risks of esophageal cancers. METHODS: We compared estimated lifetime residential ambient UVR among Australian patients with esophageal cancer (330 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 386 esophago-gastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), and 279 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)), and 1471 population controls. We asked people where they had lived at different periods of their life, and assigned ambient UVR to each location based on measurements from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer database. Freckling and nevus burden were self-reported. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the magnitude of associations between phenotype, ambient UVR, and esophageal cancer risk. RESULTS: Compared with population controls, patients with EAC and EGJAC were less likely to have high levels of estimated cumulative lifetime ambient UVR (EAC odds ratio (OR) 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.99, EGJAC OR 0.55, 0.34-0.90). We found no association between UVR and risk of ESCC (OR 0.91, 0.51-1.64). The associations were independent of age, sex, body mass index, education, state of recruitment, frequency of reflux, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and H. pylori serostatus. Cases with EAC were also significantly less likely to report high levels of nevi than controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data show an inverse association between ambient solar UVR at residential locations and risk of EAC and EGJAC, but not ESCC.

Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci on 5p15 some associating with TERT expression

Associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 5p15 and multiple cancer types have been reported. We have previously shown evidence for a strong association between prostate cancer (PrCa) risk and rs2242652 at 5p15, intronic in the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that encodes TERT. To comprehensively evaluate the association between genetic variation across this region and PrCa, we performed a fine-mapping analysis by genotyping 134 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array or Sequenom MassArray iPlex, followed by imputation of 1094 SNPs in 22 301 PrCa cases and 22 320 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis identified four signals in the promoter or intronic regions of TERT that independently associated with PrCa risk. Gene expression analysis of normal prostate tissue showed evidence that SNPs within one of these regions also associated with TERT expression, providing a potential mechanism for predisposition to disease.

Modification of advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model for the whole project life cycle’s risks

The advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (APRAM) is one of the recently developed methods that can be used for risk analysis and management purposes considering schedule, cost, and quality risks simultaneously. However, this model considers those failure risks that occur only over the design and construction phases of a project’s life cycle. While it can be sufficient for some projects for which the required cost during the operating life is much less than the budget required over the construction period, it should be modified in relation to infrastructure projects because the associated costs during the operating life cycle are significant. In this paper, a modified APRAM is proposed, which can consider potential risks that might occur over the entire life cycle of the project, including technical and managerial failure risks. Therefore, the modified model can be used as an efficient decision-support tool for construction managers in the housing industry in which various alternatives might be technically available. The modified method is demonstrated by using a real building project, and this demonstration shows that it can be employed efficiently by construction managers. The Delphi method was applied in order to figure out the failure events and their associated probabilities. The results show that although the initial cost of a cold-formed steel structural system is higher than a conventional construction system, the former’s failure cost is much lower than the latter’s

Does fundamental indexation lead to better risk-adjusted returns? New evidence from Australian Securities Exchange

We investigate the claims of superiority of fundamental indexation strategy over capitalisation-weighted indexation by using data for Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listed stocks. Whilst our results are in line with the outperformance observed in other geographical markets, we find that the excess returns from fundamental indexation in Australian market are much higher. On a rolling 5-year basis, the fundamental index always outperforms the capitalisation-weighted index. Our results suggest that superior performance of fundamental indexation could not be entirely attributed to value, size, or momentum effects. The outperformance persists even after adjusting for slightly higher transaction costs related to turnover.

Automated risk mitigation in business processes

This paper proposes a concrete approach for the automatic mitigation of risks that are detected during process enactment. Given a process model exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to the risk of approval fraud, we enact this process and as soon as the likelihood of the associated risk(s) is no longer tolerable, we generate a set of possible mitigation actions to reduce the risks' likelihood, ideally annulling the risks altogether. A mitigation action is a sequence of controlled changes applied to the running process instance, taking into account a snapshot of the process resources and data, and the current status of the system in which the process is executed. These actions are proposed as recommendations to help process administrators mitigate process-related risks as soon as they arise. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL environment and its performance evaluated. The results show that it is possible to mitigate process-related risks within a few minutes.