Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

Tendinopathy alters cumulative transverse strain in the patellar tendon postexercise.

Introduction This research evaluated the effect of tendinopathy on the cumulative transverse strain response of the patellar tendon to a bout of resistive quadriceps exercise. Methods Nine adults with unilateral patellar tendinopathy (age 18.2±0.7 years, height 1.92±0.06 m and weight 76.8±6.8 kg) and ten healthy adults free of knee pain (age 17.8±0.8 years, height 1.83±0.05 m and weight 73.2±7.6 kg) underwent standardised sagittal sonograms (7.2–14 MHz linear–array transducer) of both patellar tendons immediately prior and following 45 repetitions of a double–leg decline–squat exercise performed against a resistance of 145% bodyweight. Tendon thickness was determined 5–mm and 25–mm distal to the patellar pole. Transverse Hencky strain was calculated as the natural log of the ratio of post– to pre–exercise tendon thickness and expressed as a percentage. Measures of tendon echogenicity were calculated within the superficial and deep aspects of each tendon site from gray–scale profiles. Intratendinous microvessels were evaluated using power Doppler ultrasound. Results The cumulative transverse strain response to exercise in symptomatic tendinopathy was significantly lower than that of asymptomatic and healthy tendon (P<.05). There was also a significant reduction (57%) in the area of microvascularity immediately following exercise (P=.05), which was positively correlated (r=0.93, P<.05) with VISA-P score. Conclusions This study is the first to show that patellar tendinopathy is associated with an altered morphological and mechanical response of the tendon to exercise, which is manifest by a reduction in cumulative transverse strain and microvascularity, when present. Research directed toward identifying factors that influence the acute microvascular and transverse strain response of the patellar tendon to exercise in the various stages of tendinopathy is warranted.

Incidence trends of keratinocytic skin cancers and melanoma in Israel 2006-2011

BACKGROUND The incidence of skin cancer, both melanoma and keratinocyte cancers (KC) is rising throughout the world, specifically squamous cell carcinomas(SCC) and basal cell carcinoma(BCC), being the most common of all cancers. OBJECTIVE To determine trends in incidence of Melanoma, BCC and SCC among 1.7 million members of Maccabi Healthcare Services from 2006 to 2011. METHODS Data on newly diagnosed Melanoma, SCC and BCC cases was collected from the MHS Cancer Registry and based on histology reports from the centralized pathology lab. Age-specific and overall age-adjusted European standardized rates were computed. Trends were estimated by calculating Average Annual Percentage Change(AAPC). RESULTS During the six year study period, a total of 16,079 subjects were diagnosed with at least one BCC, 4,767 with SCC and 1,264 with invasive melanoma. Age-standardized incidence rates were 188, 58 and 17 per 100,000 person years for BCC, SCC and melanoma, respectively. All lesions were more common among males and primarily affected the elderly. BCC rates were stable throughout the study period(AAPC -0.7%, 95%CI -4.5% to 3.2%) while SCC incidence increased significantly(AAPC 15.5%, 95%CI: 2.6% to 30.0%). In contrast, melanoma rates continuously decreased with a significant AAPC of -3.0%, 95%CI (-4.5 to -0.1). CONCLUSIONS Previously unreported, the incidence of KC in Israel is high. The disparities in incidence trends between SCC, BCC and melanoma allude to their different etiologies. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring, education and prevention programs in a growing high risk population.

Synthesis, characterization and activity of an immobilized photocatalyst : natural porous diatomite supported titania nanoparticles

Diatomite, a porous non-metal mineral, was used as support to prepare TiO2/diatomite composites by a modified sol–gel method. The as-prepared composites were calcined at temperatures ranging from 450 to 950 _C. The characterization tests included X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and nitrogen adsorption/desorption measurements. The XRD analysis indicated that the binary mixtures of anatase and rutile exist in the composites. The morphology analysis confirmed the TiO2 particles were uniformly immobilized on the surface of diatom with a strong interfacial anchoring strength, which leads to few drain of photocatalytic components during practical applications. In further XPS studies of hybrid catalyst, we found the evidence of the presence of Ti–O–Si bond and increased percentage of surface hydroxyl. In addition, the adsorption capacity and photocatalytic activity of synthesized TiO2/diatomite composites were evaluated by studying the degradation kinetics of aqueous Rhodamine B under UV-light irradiation. The photocatalytic degradation was found to follow pseudo-first order kinetics according to the Langmuir–Hinshelwood model. The preferable removal efficiency was observed in composites by 750 _C calcination, which is attributed to a relatively appropriate anatase/rutile mixing ratio of 90/10.

Use of physical activity self-management strategies by high school students

Teaching adolescents to use self-management strategies (SMS's) may be an effective approach to promoting lifelong physical activity (PA). However, the extent to which adolescents use SMS's and their impact on current PA have not been studied previously. The aims of this study were: 1) describe the prevalence of SMS use in adolescents; and 2) determine relationships between SMS use, PA self-efficacy, and PA participation. 197 students completed questionnaires measuring use of SMS's, self-efficacy, and PA behavior. The most prevalent SMS's (>30%) were thinking about the benefits of PA, making PA more enjoyable, choosing activities that are convenient, setting aside time to do PA, and setting goals to do PA. Less than 10% reported rewarding oneself for PA, writing planned activities in a book or calendar, and keeping charts of PA. SMS use was associated with increased self-efficacy (r = 0.47, P < .001) and higher levels of PA (r = 0.34 P < .001). A one unit difference in SMS scores was associated with a ~ 4-fold increase in the probability of being active (OR = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.8-7.4). Although strongly associated with PA, a relatively small percentage of adolescents routinely use SMS's.

Causes of rigidity in SMEs' export commencement decision

Today, small-medium sized enterprises (SMEs) collectively contribute to the largest percentage of job creation in OECD countries. SMEs have become increasingly international since the turn of the century despite being smaller in size in comparison to large multinational firms, and notably, exporting is the most favoured mode of international market entry utilised by SMEs in their internationalisation strategy. Governments around the world have acknowledged the importance of export promotion and have employed policies that are targeted at increasing the export activity of SMEs. However, in many countries, the involvement of SMEs in export operations remains rather low. Within Australia, for example, only about one-third of local SMEs are exporting and this raises an important question as to why there is such a huge percentage of non-exporters. Much scholarly research that focuses on this problem has concentrated on the broad concept of 'export barriers' that act as obstacles to a firm's export development. This paper takes a different approach to previous studies and proposes that a firm's resistance to commence exporting can be better understood through an analysis of the behavioural decision process during its pre-export state. Using a sample of Australian SMEs, the factors that are important in preventing a firm’s initial export commencement decision are categorised and discussed through the use of factor analysis.

Hyperlinking history and illegitimate imagination : the historiographic metafictional E-novel

‘Historiographic Metafiction’ (HM) is a literary term first coined by creative writing academic Linda Hutcheon in 1988, and which refers to the postmodern practice of a fiction author inserting imagined--or illegitimate--characters into narratives that are intended to be received as authentic and historically accurate, that is, ostensibly legitimate. Such adventurous and bold authorial strategies frequently result in “novels which are both intensely self-reflexive and yet paradoxically also lay claim to historical events and personages” (Hutcheon, A Poetics 5). They can be so entertaining and engaging that the overtly intertextual, explicitly inventive work of biographical HM can even change the “hegemonic discourse of history” (Nunning 353) for, as Philippa Gregory, the author of HM novel The Other Boleyn Girl (2001), has said regarding this genre of creative writing: “Fiction is about imagined feelings and thoughts. History depends on the outer life. The novel is always about the inner life. Fiction can sometimes do more than history. It can fill the gaps” (University of Sussex). In a way, this article will be filling one of the gaps regarding HM...

Seed germination may explain differences in invasiveness and prevalence : a case study using cat's claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati)

High germination rates and rapid germination behavior in response to different environmental cues are traits that may be associated with invasiveness. Cat’s claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), a Weed of National Significance has two forms, a long-pod (LP) form and a short-pod (SP) from. The LP form occurs in only a few localities in southeast Queensland while the SP form is widely distributed in Queensland and New South Wales. The aims of this investigation were: to evaluate whether there are significant differences in germination traits between the two forms of cat’s claw creeper; and if there are any significant differences, to find out whether the differences in germination can be related to prevalence and invasiveness levels for the two forms. Long pod and short pod seeds collected in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 from various localities in Qld were germinated in growth chambers in early 2013. The growth chambers were set to 10/20 ºC, 15/25 ºC and 20/30 ºC temperature cycles. Seeds from 2009-2012 of either form did not germinate, while for the fresh seeds (2013), SP exhibited significantly higher total germination percentage and rates than LP. Assuming that the two forms were introduced in Australia at around the same period, these results could explain why SP is widely distributed (and therefore more invasive) in Qld and NSW while LP is only confined to a few localities in southeast Qld.

Development of an online role-play assessment initiative for nursing students in their bioscience studies

Devising assessment tasks for large units that embrace academic goals of authenticity and assessment variety can be a challenge. We developed an online Role-Play Assessment Initiative for first year nursing students in bioscience. Students responded to a case study by preparing two role-play dialogues: as a nurse with the patient, and between two nurses. The aims were to assess whether the students could: 1) understand the underlying disease process (pathophysiology) and relate it to clinical practice; 2) use language appropriate for lay and medical conversation; and 3) apply information using active learning. We conducted a student survey using quantitative questions (Likert scale: 1=strongly disagree to 5=strongly agree), and qualitative questions. 65 completed surveys were received. 80% of respondents agreed (includes agree or strongly agree) that it was a useful way to learn and understand pathophysiology of the case study. 86% agreed that it was useful to apply pathophysiology from lectures to a clinical setting. Overall, students found it enjoyable, which is beneficial for enhanced student engagement, and agreed that it allowed them to work well in a group (74% and 85%, respectively). Most qualitative suggestions for improvement related to group work, despite the encouraging response to group work in quantitative questions. Most positive comments surrounded different communication with a nurse compared with a patient. These results demonstrate that students developed deeper understanding of pathophysiology through active learning and were able to expand their nursing career skills during the role-play. Learning using role-play to simulate the workforce has fostered active learning.

Improving safety communication of ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong

The construction workforce in Hong Kong is experiencing a severe ageing problem and labour shortage. One initiative to enhance the supply of manpower is to assist ethnic minorities joining the industry. It is foreseeable that the percentage of ethnic minorities in the construction workforce will keep increasing. Statistics show that ethnic minorities were nearly 30% more likely to have work-related injuries than local workers in some developed countries. However, official statistics on the safety of ethnic minorities are not available in Hong Kong. A search in newspaper archive revealed that ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong are subjected to higher fatality rate than local workers, just as is the case in many developed countries. This reflects that the safety of ethnic minorities has not received the attention it rightly deserves. Safety communication has been one of the key factors leading to accidents. Safety communication barriers of ethnic minorities impede them from receiving safety training and acquiring safety information effectively. Research towards improving the safety communication of ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong becomes more urgent. This paper will provides an initial report on a research project which focuses on improving the safety communication of ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong. Quantitative and qualitative research methods including Social Network Analysis (SNA) applied in conducting the research are first discussed. Preliminary statistics of construction accidents related to ethnic minorities in Hong Kong are then presented.

Development of a new index of balance in adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities

Purposes: The first objective was to propose a new model representing the balance level of adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) using Principal Components Analysis (PCA); and the second objective was to use the results from the PCA recorded by regression method to construct and validate summative scales of the standardized values of the index, which may be useful to facilitate a balance assessment in adults with IDD. Methods: A total of 801 individuals with IDD (509 males) mean 33.1±8.5 years old, were recruited from Special Olympic Games in Spain 2009 to 2012. The participants performed the following tests: the timed-stand test, the single leg stance test with open and closed eyes, the Functional Reach Test, the Expanded Timed-Get-up-and-Go Test. Data was analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA) with Oblimin rotation and Kaiser normalization. We examined the construct validity of our proposed two-factor model underlying balance for adults with IDD. The scores from PCA were recorded by regression method and were standardized. Results: The Component Plot and Rotated Space indicated that a two-factor solution (Dynamic and Static Balance components) was optimal. The PCA with direct Oblimin rotation revealed a satisfactory percentage of total variance explained by the two factors: 51.6 and 21.4%, respectively. The median score standardized for component dynamic and static of the balance index for adults with IDD is shown how references values. Conclusions: Our study may lead to improvements in the understanding and assessment of balance in adults with IDD. First, it confirms that a two-factor model may underlie the balance construct, and second, it provides an index that may be useful for identifying the balance level for adults with IDD.

Anatomical specializations for enhanced olfactory sensitivity in kiwi, Apteryx mantelli

The ability to function in a nocturnal and ground-dwelling niche requires a unique set of sensory specializations. The New Zealand kiwi has shifted away from vision, instead relying on auditory and tactile stimuli to function in its environment and locate prey. Behavioral evidence suggests that kiwi also rely on their sense of smell, using olfactory cues in foraging and possibly also in communication and social interactions. Anatomical studies appear to support these observations: the olfactory bulbs and tubercles have been suggested to be large in the kiwi relative to other birds, although the extent of this enlargement is poorly understood. In this study, we examine the size of the olfactory bulbs in kiwi and compare them with 55 other bird species, including emus, ostriches, rheas, tinamous, and 2 extinct species of moa (Dinornithiformes). We also examine the cytoarchitecture of the olfactory bulbs and olfactory epithelium to determine if any neural specializations beyond size are present that would increase olfactory acuity. Kiwi were a clear outlier in our analysis, with olfactory bulbs that are proportionately larger than those of any other bird in this study. Emus, close relatives of the kiwi, also had a relative enlargement of the olfactory bulbs, possibly supporting a phylogenetic link to well-developed olfaction. The olfactory bulbs in kiwi are almost in direct contact with the olfactory epithelium, which is indeed well developed and complex, with olfactory receptor cells occupying a large percentage of the epithelium. The anatomy of the kiwi olfactory system supports an enhancement for olfactory sensitivities, which is undoubtedly associated with their unique nocturnal niche.

Statistics at play

Three core components in developing children’s understanding and appreciation of data — establish a context, pose and answer statistical questions, represent and interpret data — lay the foundation for the fourth component: use data to enhance existing context.

Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity

Background Multi-strategic community wide interventions for physical activity are increasingly popular but their ability to achieve population level improvements is unknown. Objectives To evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon population levels of physical activity. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Public Health Group Segment of the Cochrane Register of Studies,The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, PsycINFO, ASSIA, the British Nursing Index, Chinese CNKI databases, EPPI Centre (DoPHER, TRoPHI), ERIC, HMIC, Sociological Abstracts, SPORTDiscus, Transport Database and Web of Science (Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index). We also scanned websites of the EU Platform on Diet, Physical Activity and Health; Health-Evidence.org; the International Union for Health Promotion and Education; the NIHR Coordinating Centre for Health Technology (NCCHTA); the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and NICE and SIGN guidelines. Reference lists of all relevant systematic reviews, guidelines and primary studies were searched and we contacted experts in the field. The searches were updated to 16 January 2014, unrestricted by language or publication status. Selection criteria Cluster randomised controlled trials, randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental designs which used a control population for comparison, interrupted time-series studies, and prospective controlled cohort studies were included. Only studies with a minimum six-month follow up from the start of the intervention to measurement of outcomes were included. Community wide interventions had to comprise at least two broad strategies aimed at physical activity for the whole population. Studies which randomised individuals from the same community were excluded. Data collection and analysis At least two review authors independently extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias. Each study was assessed for the setting, the number of included components and their intensity. The primary outcome measures were grouped according to whether they were dichotomous (per cent physically active, per cent physically active during leisure time, and per cent physically inactive) or continuous (leisure time physical activity time (time spent)), walking (time spent), energy expenditure (as metabolic equivalents or METS)). For dichotomous measures we calculated the unadjusted and adjusted risk difference, and the unadjusted and adjusted relative risk. For continuous measures we calculated percentage change from baseline, unadjusted and adjusted. Main results After the selection process had been completed, 33 studies were included. A total of 267 communities were included in the review (populations between 500 and 1.9 million). Of the included studies, 25 were set in high income countries and eight were in low income countries. The interventions varied by the number of strategies included and their intensity. Almost all of the interventions included a component of building partnerships with local governments or non-governmental organisations (NGOs) (29 studies). None of the studies provided results by socio-economic disadvantage or other markers of equity. However, of those included studies undertaken in high income countries, 14 studies were described as being provided to deprived, disadvantaged or low socio-economic communities. Nineteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias, 10 studies were unclear, and four studies had a low risk of bias. Selection bias was a major concern with these studies, with only five studies using randomisation to allocate communities. Four studies were judged as being at low risk of selection bias although 19 studies were considered to have an unclear risk of bias. Twelve studies had a high risk of detection bias, 13 an unclear risk and four a low risk of bias. Generally, the better designed studies showed no improvement in the primary outcome measure of physical activity at a population level. All four of the newly included, and judged to be at low risk of bias, studies (conducted in Japan, United Kingdom and USA) used randomisation to allocate the intervention to the communities. Three studies used a cluster randomised design and one study used a stepped wedge design. The approach to measuring the primary outcome of physical activity was better in these four studies than in many of the earlier studies. One study obtained objective population representative measurements of physical activity by accelerometers, while the remaining three low-risk studies used validated self-reported measures. The study using accelerometry, conducted in low income, high crime communities of USA, emphasised social marketing, partnership with police and environmental improvements. No change in the seven-day average daily minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity was observed during the two years of operation. Some program level effect was observed with more people walking in the intervention community, however this result was not evident in the whole community. Similarly, the two studies conducted in the United Kingdom (one in rural villages and the other in urban London; both using communication, partnership and environmental strategies) found no improvement in the mean levels of energy expenditure per person per week, measured from one to four years from baseline. None of the three low risk studies reporting a dichotomous outcome of physical activity found improvements associated with the intervention. Overall, there was a noticeable absence of reporting of benefit in physical activity for community wide interventions in the included studies. However, as a group, the interventions undertaken in China appeared to have the greatest possibility of success with high participation rates reported. Reporting bias was evident with two studies failing to report physical activity measured at follow up. No adverse events were reported.The data pertaining to cost and sustainability of the interventions were limited and varied. Authors' conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is a noticeable inconsistency of the findings in the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. The body of evidence in this review does not support the hypothesis that the multi-component community wide interventions studied effectively increased physical activity for the population, although some studies with environmental components observed more people walking. Plain language summary Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity Not having enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one's health and wellbeing. The lack of physical activity is a common and in some cases a growing health problem. To address this, 33 studies have used improvement activities directed at communities, using more than one approach in a single program. When we first looked at the available research in 2011 we observed that there was a lack of good studies which could show whether this approach was beneficial or not. Some studies claimed that community wide programs improved physical activities and other studies did not. In this update we found four new studies that were of good quality; however none of these four studies increased physical activity levels for the population. Some studies reported program level effects such as observing more people walking, however the population level of physical activity had not increased. This review found that community wide interventions are very difficult to undertake, and it appears that they usually fail to provide a measurable benefit in physical activity for a population. It is apparent that many of the interventions failed to reach a substantial portion of the community, and we speculate that some single strategies included in the combination may lack individual effectiveness. Laički sažetak Intervencije u zajednici za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti Nedostatna tjelesna aktivnost povezana je s lošijim zdravljem.Redovita tjelesna aktivnost može umanjiti rizik od kroničnih bolesti te poboljšati zdravlje i kvalitetu života pojedinca.Manjak tjelesne aktivnosti čest je problem, a učestalost tog problema se povećava.Cochrane sustavni pregled je analizirao 33 studije koje su istražile programe za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici, u kojima se koristilo više od jednog pristupa.Kad su prvi put pregledani dokazi iz istraživanja koja su bila dostupna 2011. godine, utvrđeno je da nema dovoljno dobrih studija koje bi mogle pokazati je li takav pristup koristan ili ne.Primjerice, neke studije tvrde da programi za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici poboljšavaju tjelesnu aktivnost pojedinaca u zajednici, a druge studije tvrde suprotno.U ovom obnovljenom sustavnom pregledu pronađene su 4 nove studije koje su bile visoke kvalitete, ail nijedna od tih studija nije pokazala da je istraživana intervencija dovela do povećanja tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici.Neke su studije opisale učinak na način da je opisano da je uočeno da više ljudi u zajednici hoda, međutim, ukupna razina tjelesne aktivnosti u promatranoj populaciji nije se povećala.Ovaj sustavni pregled je utvrdio da je intervencije za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici teško provesti i čini se da one obično ne uspijevaju u svojoj namjeri da na mjerljiv način povećaju tjelesnu aktivnost u populaciji.Čini se da mnoge intervencije nisu uspjele doseći veći broj stanovnika u zajednici pa se može smatrati da neke od strategija uključene u analizirane kombinacije nisu zasebno učinkovite.

Classification of inventory data suit for managing Australian railway bridges

With a focus to optimising the life cycle performance of Australian Railway bridges, new bridge classification and environmental classification systems are proposed. The new bridge classification system is mainly to facilitate the implementation of novel Bridge Management System (BMS) which optimise the life cycle cost both at project level and network level while environment classification is mainly to improve accuracy of Remaining Service Potential (RSP) module of the proposed BMS. In fact, limited capacity of the existing BMS to trigger the maintenance intervention point is an indirect result of inadequacies of the existing bridge and environmental classification systems. The proposed bridge classification system permits to identify the intervention points based on percentage deterioration of individual elements and maintenance cost, while allowing performance based rating technique to implement for maintenance optimisation and prioritisation. Simultaneously, the proposed environment classification system will enhance the accuracy of prediction of deterioration of steel components.