Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

The application of financial ratios in analysing nonprofit organisations

Historically ratios have been used to assess the financial standing of profit organisations. It would be expected the role which such ratios play in analysing nonprofit organisations would be considerably different due to the lack of profit motive. Many traditional ratios are based on profitability as a benchmark. The nonprofit sector plays an important role in society yet to date there has been no research carried out on financial statement analysis for nonprofit organisations in Australia. This paper examines ratios of a group of nonprofit organisations and assesses the applicability of the traditional profit-based ratios to nonprofit organisations. Financial statements of a sample of charities registered in Queensland are analysed. The traditional profitability, liquidity and financial stability ratios are analysed and calculated wherever practicable and compared to the typical benchmarks used in profit analysis.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

Acquisition modelling for heavy engineering assets in mining industry

Each year, organizations in Australian mining industry (asset intensive industry) spend substantial amount of capital (A$86 billion in 2009-10) (Statistics, 2011) in acquiring engineering assets. Engineering assets are put to use in operations to generate value. Different functions (departments) of an organization have different expectations and requirements from each of the engineering asset e.g. return on investment, reliability, efficiency, maintainability, low cost of running the asset, low or nil environmental impact and easy of disposal, potential salvage value etc. Assets are acquired from suppliers or built by service providers and or internally. The process of acquiring assets is supported by procurement function. One of the most costly mistakes that organizations can make is acquiring the inappropriate or non-conforming assets that do not fit the purpose. The root cause of acquiring non confirming assets belongs to incorrect acquisition decision and the process of making decisions. It is very important that an asset acquisition decision is based on inputs and multi-criteria of each function within the organization which has direct or indirect impact on the acquisition, utilization, maintenance and disposal of the asset. Literature review shows that currently there is no comprehensive process framework and tool available to evaluate the inclusiveness and breadth of asset acquisition decisions that are taken in the Mining Organizations. This thesis discusses various such criteria and inputs that need to be considered and evaluated from various functions within the organization while making the asset acquisition decision. Criteria from functions such as finance, production, maintenance, logistics, procurement, asset management, environment health and safety, material management, training and development etc. need to be considered to make an effective and coherent asset acquisition decision. The thesis also discusses a tool that is developed to be used in the multi-criteria and cross functional acquisition decision making. The development of multi-criteria and cross functional inputs based decision framework and tool which utilizes that framework to formulate cross functional and integrated asset acquisition decisions are the contribution of this research.

Valuation of family firms : the limitations of accounting information

This conceptual paper explores the extent to which reported accounting information captures unique family firm decision-making and intangible asset factors that impact financial value. We review the family firm valuation-relevant literature and identify that this body of research is predicated on the assumption that accounting information reflects the underlying reality of family firms. This research, however, fails to recognise that current accounting technology does not fully recognise the family firm factors in the book value of the firm or the implications for long run persistence of earnings. Thus, valuation models underpinning the extant empirical research, which are predicated on reported accounting information, may not fully reflect the intrinsic value of family firms. We present propositions on the interaction between accounting information, family factors and valuation as a road map for future empirical research with a discussion of appropriate methodologies.

Promotion and succession management and associated retention issues in Australian law firms

The focus of this research was promotion and succession management in Australian law firms. Two staff retention issues currently faced by the Australian legal industry were identified as suggesting possible failures in this area: 1) Practitioners are leaving law firms early in their careers, 2) Female representation is disproportionally low at partnership level. The research described current Australian law firm promotion and succession practices and then explained their possible relevance to the two retention issues. The overall aim of the research was to uncover key findings and present practical recommendations to law firm managers and partners ready for incorporation into their future promotion and succession planning practice. In so doing the research aimed to benefit the Australian legal community as a whole. Four areas of literature relevant to the topic were reviewed, 1) law firm governance concluding that the fundamental values of the P²-Form remained constant (Cooper, Hinings, Greenwood & Brown, 1996; Morris & Pinnington, 1998) with ownership and strategic control of law firms remaining in the hands of partners; 2) the importance of individual practitioners to law firms concluding that the actual and opportunity costs relating to practitioner turnover were significant due to the transient nature of knowledge as a key asset of law firms (Gottschalk & Khandelwal, 2004; Rebitzer & Taylor, 2007); 3) generational differences concluding with support for the work of Finegold, Mohrman and Spreitzer (2002), Davis, Pawlowski and Houston (2006), Kuhnreuther (2003), and Avery, McKay, and Wilson (2007) which indicated that generational cohort differences were of little utility in human resources management practice; and 4) previous research relating to law firm promotion and succession practices indicating that five practices were relevant in law firm promotion outcomes; 1) firm billing requirements (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004; Webley & Duff, 2007); 2) mentoring programs (Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004); 3) the existence of female partners (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Beckman & Phillips, 2005); 4) non-partner career paths (Phillips, 2001; Corcoran & Noonan, 2004); and 5) the existence of family friendly policies (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004; Webley & Duff, 2007.) The research was carried out via a sequential mixed method approach. The initial quantitative study was based upon a theoretical framework grounded in the literature and provided baseline information describing Australian law firm promotion and succession practices. The study was carried out via an on-line survey of Australian law firm practitioners. The results of the study provided the basis for the second qualitative study. The qualitative study further explained the statistically generated results and focused specifically on the two identified retention issues. The study was conducted via one-on-one interviews with Australian law firm partners and experienced law firm managers. The results of both studies were combined within the context of relevant literature resulting in eight key findings: Key findings 1) Organisational commitment levels across generational cohorts are more homogenous than different. 2) Law firm practitioners are leaving law firms early in their careers due to the heavy time commitment behaviour demanded of them, particularly by clients. 3) Law firm promotion and succession practices reinforce practitioner time commitment behaviour marking it as an indicator of practitioner success. 4) Law firm practitioners believe that they have many career options outside law firms and are considering these options. 5) Female practitioners are considering opting out of law firms due to time commitment demands related to partnership conflicting with family commitment demands. 6) A masculine, high time commitment culture in law firms is related to the decision by female practitioners to leave law firms. 7) The uptake of alternative work arrangements by female practitioners is not fatal to their partnership prospects particularly in firms with supportive policies, processes and organisational culture. 8) Female practitioners are less inclined than their male counterparts to seek partnership as an ultimate goal and are more likely to opt out of law firms exhibiting highly competitive, masculine cultures. Practical recommendations Further review of the data collected in relation to the key findings provided the basis for nine practical recommendations specifically geared towards implementation by law firm managers and partners. The first recommendation relates to the use of generational differences in practitioner management. The next six relate to recommended actions to reduce the time commitment demands on practitioners. The final two recommendations relate to the practical implementation of these actions both at an individual and organisational level. The recommendations are as follows: 1) "Generationally driven," age based generalisations should not be utilised in law firm promotion and succession management practice. 2) Expected levels of client access to practitioners be negotiated on a client by client basis and be included in client retention agreements. 3) Appropriate alternative working arrangements such as working off-site, flexible working hours or part-time work be offered to practitioners in situations where doing so will not compromise client serviceability. 4) The copying of long working hour behaviours of senior practitioners should be discouraged particularly where information technology can facilitate remote client serviceability. 5) Refocus the use of timesheets from an employer monitoring tool to an employee empowerment tool. 6) Policies and processes relating to the offer of alternative working arrangements be supported and reinforced by law firm organisational culture. 7) Requests for alternative working arrangements be determined without regard to gender. 8) Incentives and employment conditions offered to practitioners to be individualised based on the subjective need of the individual and negotiated as a part of the current employee performance review process. 9) Individually negotiated employment conditions be negotiated within the context of the firm’s overall strategic planning process. Through the conduct of the descripto-explanatory study, a detailed discussion of current law firm promotion and succession practices was enabled. From this discussion, 7 eight key findings and nine associated recommendations were generated as well as an insight into the future of the profession being given. The key findings and recommendations provide practical advice to law firm managers and partners in relation to their everyday promotion and succession practice. The need to negotiate individual employee workplace conditions and their integration into overall law firm business planning was put forward. By doing so, it was suggested that both the individual employee and the employing law firm would mutually benefit from the arrangement. The study therefore broadened its practical contribution from human resources management to a contribution to the overall management practice of Australian law firms. In so doing, the research has provided an encompassing contribution to the Australian legal industry both in terms of employee welfare as well as firm and industry level success.

Maintenance optimisation of a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals

This paper presents a maintenance optimisation method for a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals. The objective function considered in the paper is the average revenue per unit time calculated based on the semi-regenerative theory and the universal generating function (UGF). A new algorithm using the stochastic ordering is also developed in this paper to reduce the search space of maintenance strategies and to enhance the efficiency of optimisation algorithms. A numerical simulation is presented in the study to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed maintenance strategy and optimisation algorithms. The simulation result reveals that maintenance strategies with opportunistic maintenance and state-dependent inspection intervals are more cost-effective when the influence of economic dependence and inspection cost is significant. The study further demonstrates that the optimisation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency than the commonly employed heuristic algorithms.

A practical signal processing approach for condition monitoring of low speed machinery using Peak-Hold-Down-Sample algorithm

A simple and effective down-sample algorithm, Peak-Hold-Down-Sample (PHDS) algorithm is developed in this paper to enable a rapid and efficient data transfer in remote condition monitoring applications. The algorithm is particularly useful for high frequency Condition Monitoring (CM) techniques, and for low speed machine applications since the combination of the high sampling frequency and low rotating speed will generally lead to large unwieldy data size. The effectiveness of the algorithm was evaluated and tested on four sets of data in the study. One set of the data was extracted from the condition monitoring signal of a practical industry application. Another set of data was acquired from a low speed machine test rig in the laboratory. The other two sets of data were computer simulated bearing defect signals having either a single or multiple bearing defects. The results disclose that the PHDS algorithm can substantially reduce the size of data while preserving the critical bearing defect information for all the data sets used in this work even when a large down-sample ratio was used (i.e., 500 times down-sampled). In contrast, the down-sample process using existing normal down-sample technique in signal processing eliminates the useful and critical information such as bearing defect frequencies in a signal when the same down-sample ratio was employed. Noise and artificial frequency components were also induced by the normal down-sample technique, thus limits its usefulness for machine condition monitoring applications.

Signal patterns of piston slap of a four-cylinder diesel engine

This paper presents an experimental study on the vibration signal patterns associated with a simulated piston slap test of a four-cylinder diesel engine. It is found that a simulated worn-off piston results in an increase in vibration RMS peak amplitudes associated with the major mechanical events of the corresponding cylinder (i.e., inlet and exhaust valve closing and combustion of Cylinder 1). This then led to an increase of overall vibration amplitude of the time domain statistical features such as RMS, Crest Factor, Skewness and Kurtosis in all loading conditions. The simulated worn-off piston not only increased the impact amplitude of piston slap during the engine combustion, it also produced a distinct impulse response during the air induction stroke of the cylinder attributing to an increase of lateral impact force as a result of piston reciprocating motion and the increased clearance between the worn-off piston and the cylinder. The unique signal patterns of piston slap disclosed in this paper can be utilized to assist in the development of condition monitoring tools for automated diagnosis of similar diesel engine faults in practical applications.

Stakeholder service delivery expectations of military facilities management

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the quality of service of a South East Asian country's military facilities management organisation. Design/methodology/approach – An interview survey and questionnaire survey were used to obtain a description and summary of stakeholders’ expectations and the extent to which they were being satisfied by the services provided. Findings – The method provides a useful means of identifying and prioritising varying expectations between stakeholder groups and of indicating any mismatch in expectations in the management of military facilities. Social implications – The development and use of a method to test and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the management of military facilities helps in providing better value for money. Originality/value – In addition to re-affirming Parasuraman's overall dimensions of service expectation, the empirical summary of the stakeholders’ expectations obtained in this way is of practical value for the service provider in developing a strategy for expectation management. For the case studied, it is also apparent that although the current processes in service delivery are well understood by all involved stakeholders, there is a need for further improvement with regards to their expectation levels. It is also one of the very few reported studies on the management of military facilities.

Islamic project financing implementation for sustainable infrastructure development in Indonesia

Islamic financing in Indonesia infrastructure projects development has not been optimally implemented. Therefore this paper serves as a catalyst to explore alternative financial scheme such as Islamic financing for infrastructure development. The purpose of this paper is to explore the enablers and barriers in implementing Islamic project financing for public infrastructure development. The findings are then culminated into enablers and barriers in the implementation of Islamic project financing. The two main enablers are the readily availability of huge fund that can be used to support infrastructure projects; and the acceptability of the concept of shariah-compliant financing. On the other hand, the barriers include: high cost of funding; lack of financial institution capability; lack of government policy and regulation; insufficient government support and commitment; conflict between infrastructure and Islamic finance business practices; profit oriented mindset; lack of understanding of Islamic project financing knowledge in infrastructure; and insufficient project preparation.

The effect of ribbing on the energy flow between two rectangular plates coupled at right angle

This paper presents an analytical model to study the effect of stiffening ribs on vibration transmission between two rectangular plates coupled at right angle. Interesting wave attenuation patterns were observed by placing the stiffening rib either on the source or on the receiving plate. The result can be used to improve the understanding of vibration and for vibration control of more complex structures such as transformer tanks and machine covers.

Making space for knowledge generation and place for knowledge communities : an analysis of the Australian practice

In the era of global knowledge economy, urban regions—seeking to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment, and provide prosperity and quality of life to their inhabitants—have little chance achieving their development goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. This paper aims to shed light on the planning and development processes of the knowledge-based urban development phenomenon with respect to the construction of knowledge community precincts aimed at making space for knowledge generation and place for knowledge communities. Following to a thorough review of the literature on knowledge-based urban development and strategic asset-based planning, the paper undertakes policy and best practice analyses to learn from the planning and development processes of internationally renowned knowledge community precincts—from Copenhagen, Eindhoven and Singapore. In the light of the analyses findings, this paper scrutinises major Australian knowledge community precinct initiatives—from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane—to better understand the dynamics of national practices, and benchmark them against the international best practice cases. The paper concludes with a discussion on the study findings and recommendations for successfully establishing space and place for both knowledge economy and society in Australian cities.

The Chemistry Discipline Network: One Year On

The Chemistry Discipline Network was funded in mid-2011, with the aim of improving communication between chemistry academics in Australia. In our first year of operation, we have grown to over 100 members, established a web presence, and produced substantial mapping reports on chemistry teaching in Australia. We are now working on the definition of standards for a chemistry degree based on the Threshold Learning Outcomes published by the Learning and Teaching Academic Standards Project.