On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Developing safer passengers through a school-based injury prevention program

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death among young people. Fourteen percent of adolescents aged 13-14 report passenger-related injuries within three months. Intervention programs typically focus on young drivers and overlook passengers as potential protective influences. Graduated Driver Licensing restricts passenger numbers, and this study focuses on a complementary school-based intervention to increase passengers’ personal- and peer-protective behavior. The aim of this research was to assess the impact of the curriculum-based injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), on passenger-related risk-taking and injuries, and intentions to intervene in friends’ risky road behavior. SPIY was implemented in Grade 8 Health classes and evaluated using survey and focus group data from 843 students across 10 Australian secondary schools. Intervention students reported less passenger-related risk-taking six months following the program. Their intention to protect friends from underage driving also increased. The results of this study show that a comprehensive, school-based program targeting individual and social changes can increase adolescent passenger safety.

Adolescent involvement in anti-social and delinquent behaviours : predicting future injury risk

The purpose of this study was to challenge the broadly based focus of injury prevention strategies towards concern with the needs of young adolescents who engage in multiple anti-social and delinquent behaviours. Five hundred and forty 13-14 year olds reported on injuries and truancy, violence, illegal road behaviours, drug, and alcohol use. Engagement in these behaviours was found to contribute to the likelihood of an injury. Those engaging in the most anti-social and delinquent behaviours were around five times more likely to report medically-treated injuries in the past three months. Their likelihood of future injury was 1.8 times more likely when they were followed up three months later. The engagement in multiple delinquent and illegal behaviours thus significantly increased the likelihood of injury and identifies a particularly vulnerable group. The findings also suggest that reaching these young people represents a key target for change strategies in injury prevention programs.

Porous Ca-Si-based nanospheres : a potential intra-canal disinfectant-carrier for infected canal treatment

The aim of this study is to develop a new intra-canal disinfectant-carrier for infected canal treatment. To achieve this purpose, a new porous Ca-Si (CS)-based nanosphere was synthesized and characterized. Results showed that the nanospheres can infiltrate into dentinal tubules and released the ampicillin over one week time in a sustained manner. The release of ampicillin from spheres has significantly antibacterial property. Extensive and well-organized in vitro mineralization and crystallization of apatite were induced on the surface of dentin slices covered by CS nanospheres. All these features indicate that the porous CS nanospheres may be developed into a new intra-canal disinfectant-carrier for infected canal treatment.

The microRNA expression signature on modified titanium implant surfaces influences genetic mechanisms leading to osteogenic differentiation

Topographically and chemically modified titanium implants are recognized to have improved osteogenic properties; however, the molecular regulation of this process remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the microRNA profile and the potential regulation of osteogenic differentiation following early exposure of osteoprogenitor cells to sand-blasted, large-grit acid-etched (SLA) and hydrophilic SLA (modSLA) surfaces. Firstly, the osteogenic characteristics of the primary osteoprogenitor cells were confirmed using ALP activity and Alizarin Red S staining. The effect of smooth (SMO), SLA and modSLA surfaces on the TGF-β/BMP (BMP2, BMP6, ACVR1) and non-canonical WNT/Ca2+ (WNT5A, FZD6) pathways, as well as the integrins ITGB1 and ITGA2, was determined. It was revealed that the modified titanium surfaces could induce the activation of TGF-β/BMP and non-canonical WNT/Ca2+ signaling genes. The expression pattern of microRNAs (miRNAs) related to cell differentiation was evaluated. Statistical analysis of the differentially regulated miRNAs indicated that 35 and 32 miRNAs were down-regulated on the modSLA and SLA surfaces respectively, when compared with the smooth surface (SMO). Thirty-one miRNAs that were down-regulated were common to both modSLA and SLA. There were 10 miRNAs up-regulated on modSLA and nine on SLA surfaces, amongst which eight were the same as observed on modSLA. TargetScan predictions for the down-regulated miRNAs revealed genes of the TGF-β/BMP and non-canonical Ca2+ pathways as targets. This study demonstrated that modified titanium implant surfaces induce differential regulation of miRNAs, which potentially regulate the TGF-β/BMP and WNT/Ca2+ pathways during osteogenic differentiation on modified titanium implant surfaces.

Floods and human health : a systematic review

Floods are the most common type of disaster globally, responsible for almost 53,000 deaths in the last decade alone (23:1 low- versus high-income countries). This review assessed recent epidemiological evidence on the impacts of floods on human health. Published articles (2004–2011) on the quantitative relationship between floods and health were systematically reviewed. 35 relevant epidemiological studies were identified. Health outcomes were categorized into short- and long-term and were found to depend on the flood characteristics and people's vulnerability. It was found that long-term health effects are currently not well understood. Mortality rates were found to increase by up to 50% in the first year post-flood. After floods, it was found there is an increased risk of disease outbreaks such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis, particularly in areas with poor hygiene and displaced populations. Psychological distress in survivors (prevalence 8.6% to 53% two years post-flood) can also exacerbate their physical illness. There is a need for effective policies to reduce and prevent flood-related morbidity and mortality. Such steps are contingent upon the improved understanding of potential health impacts of floods. Global trends in urbanization, burden of disease, malnutrition and maternal and child health must be better reflected in flood preparedness and mitigation programs.

Empirical analysis on relationship between traffic conditions and crash occurrences

This paper investigates relationship between traffic conditions and the crash occurrence likelihood (COL) using the I-880 data. To remedy the data limitations and the methodological shortcomings suffered by previous studies, a multiresolution data processing method is proposed and implemented, upon which binary logistic models were developed. The major findings of this paper are: 1) traffic conditions have significant impacts on COL at the study site; Specifically, COL in a congested (transitioning) traffic flow is about 6 (1.6) times of that in a free flow condition; 2)Speed variance alone is not sufficient to capture traffic dynamics’ impact on COL; a traffic chaos indicator that integrates speed, speed variance, and flow is proposed and shows a promising performance; 3) Models based on aggregated data shall be interpreted with caution. Generally, conclusions obtained from such models shall not be generalized to individual vehicles (drivers) without further evidences using high-resolution data and it is dubious to either claim or disclaim speed kills based on aggregated data.

Monte Carlo simulations of dynamic radiotherapy treatments

The effects of tumour motion during radiation therapy delivery have been widely investigated. Motion effects have become increasingly important with the introduction of dynamic radiotherapy delivery modalities such as enhanced dynamic wedges (EDWs) and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) where a dynamically collimated radiation beam is delivered to the moving target, resulting in dose blurring and interplay effects which are a consequence of the combined tumor and beam motion. Prior to this work, reported studies on the EDW based interplay effects have been restricted to the use of experimental methods for assessing single-field non-fractionated treatments. In this work, the interplay effects have been investigated for EDW treatments. Single and multiple field treatments have been studied using experimental and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Initially this work experimentally studies interplay effects for single-field non-fractionated EDW treatments, using radiation dosimetry systems placed on a sinusoidaly moving platform. A number of wedge angles (60º, 45º and 15º), field sizes (20 × 20, 10 × 10 and 5 × 5 cm2), amplitudes (10-40 mm in step of 10 mm) and periods (2 s, 3 s, 4.5 s and 6 s) of tumor motion are analysed (using gamma analysis) for parallel and perpendicular motions (where the tumor and jaw motions are either parallel or perpendicular to each other). For parallel motion it was found that both the amplitude and period of tumor motion affect the interplay, this becomes more prominent where the collimator tumor speeds become identical. For perpendicular motion the amplitude of tumor motion is the dominant factor where as varying the period of tumor motion has no observable effect on the dose distribution. The wedge angle results suggest that the use of a large wedge angle generates greater dose variation for both parallel and perpendicular motions. The use of small field size with a large tumor motion results in the loss of wedged dose distribution for both parallel and perpendicular motion. From these single field measurements a motion amplitude and period have been identified which show the poorest agreement between the target motion and dynamic delivery and these are used as the „worst case motion parameters.. The experimental work is then extended to multiple-field fractionated treatments. Here a number of pre-existing, multiple–field, wedged lung plans are delivered to the radiation dosimetry systems, employing the worst case motion parameters. Moreover a four field EDW lung plan (using a 4D CT data set) is delivered to the IMRT quality control phantom with dummy tumor insert over four fractions using the worst case parameters i.e. 40 mm amplitude and 6 s period values. The analysis of the film doses using gamma analysis at 3%-3mm indicate the non averaging of the interplay effects for this particular study with a gamma pass rate of 49%. To enable Monte Carlo modelling of the problem, the DYNJAWS component module (CM) of the BEAMnrc user code is validated and automated. DYNJAWS has been recently introduced to model the dynamic wedges. DYNJAWS is therefore commissioned for 6 MV and 10 MV photon energies. It is shown that this CM can accurately model the EDWs for a number of wedge angles and field sizes. The dynamic and step and shoot modes of the CM are compared for their accuracy in modelling the EDW. It is shown that dynamic mode is more accurate. An automation of the DYNJAWS specific input file has been carried out. This file specifies the probability of selection of a subfield and the respective jaw coordinates. This automation simplifies the generation of the BEAMnrc input files for DYNJAWS. The DYNJAWS commissioned model is then used to study multiple field EDW treatments using MC methods. The 4D CT data of an IMRT phantom with the dummy tumor is used to produce a set of Monte Carlo simulation phantoms, onto which the delivery of single field and multiple field EDW treatments is simulated. A number of static and motion multiple field EDW plans have been simulated. The comparison of dose volume histograms (DVHs) and gamma volume histograms (GVHs) for four field EDW treatments (where the collimator and patient motion is in the same direction) using small (15º) and large wedge angles (60º) indicates a greater mismatch between the static and motion cases for the large wedge angle. Finally, to use gel dosimetry as a validation tool, a new technique called the „zero-scan method. is developed for reading the gel dosimeters with x-ray computed tomography (CT). It has been shown that multiple scans of a gel dosimeter (in this case 360 scans) can be used to reconstruct a zero scan image. This zero scan image has a similar precision to an image obtained by averaging the CT images, without the additional dose delivered by the CT scans. In this investigation the interplay effects have been studied for single and multiple field fractionated EDW treatments using experimental and Monte Carlo methods. For using the Monte Carlo methods the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc code has been validated and automated and further used to study the interplay for multiple field EDW treatments. Zero-scan method, a new gel dosimetry readout technique has been developed for reading the gel images using x-ray CT without losing the precision and accuracy.

Investigating the change in three dimensional deformity for idiopathic scoliosis using axially loaded MRI

Background: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three-dimensional deformity, involving a lateral deformity in the coronal plane and axial rotation of the vertebrae in the transverse plane. Gravitational loading plays an important biomechanical role in governing the coronal deformity, however, less is known about how they influence the axial deformity. This study investigates the change in three-dimensional deformity of a series of scoliosis patients due to compressive axial loading. Methods: Magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained and coronal deformity (measured using the coronal Cobb angle) and axial rotations measured for a group of 18 scoliosis patients (Mean major Cobb angle was 43.4 o). Each patient was scanned in an unloaded and loaded condition while compressive loads equivalent to 50% body mass were applied using a custom developed compressive device. Findings: The mean increase in major Cobb angle due to compressive loading was 7.4 o (SD 3.5 o). The most axially rotated vertebra was observed at the apex of the structural curve and the largest average intravertebral rotations were observed toward the limits of the coronal deformity. A level-wise comparison showed no significant difference between the average loaded and unloaded vertebral axial rotations (intra-observer error = 2.56 o) or intravertebral rotations at each spinal level. Interpretation: This study suggests that the biomechanical effects of axial loading primarily influence the coronal deformity, with no significant change in vertebral axial rotation or intravertebral rotation observed between the unloaded and loaded condition. However, the magnitude of changes in vertebral rotation with compressive loading may have been too small to detect given the resolution of the current technique.

Analysing environmental acoustic data through collaboration and automation

Monitoring environmental health is becoming increasingly important as human activity and climate change place greater pressure on global biodiversity. Acoustic sensors provide the ability to collect data passively, objectively and continuously across large areas for extended periods. While these factors make acoustic sensors attractive as autonomous data collectors, there are significant issues associated with large-scale data manipulation and analysis. We present our current research into techniques for analysing large volumes of acoustic data efficiently. We provide an overview of a novel online acoustic environmental workbench and discuss a number of approaches to scaling analysis of acoustic data; online collaboration, manual, automatic and human-in-the loop analysis.

Environmental degradation of lignin/poly(hydroxybutyrate) blends

Blends of lignin and poly(hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) were obtained by melt extrusion. They were buried in a garden soil for up to 12 months, and the extent and mechanism of degradation were investigated by gravimetric analysis, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy (FTIR) over the entire range of compositions. The PHB films were disintegrated and lost 45 wt% of mass within 12 months. This value dropped to 12 wt% of mass when only 10 wt% of lignin was present, suggesting that lignin both inhibited and slowed down the rate of PHB degradation. TGA and DSC indicated structural changes, within the lignin/PHB matrix, with burial time, while FTIR results confirmed the fragmentation of the PHB polymer. XPS revealed an accumulation of biofilms on the surface of buried samples, providing evidence of a biodegradation mechanism. Significant surface roughness was observed with PHB films due to microbial attack caused by both loosely and strongly associated micro-organisms. The presence of lignin in the blends may have inhibited the colonisation of the micro-organisms and caused the blends to be more resistant to microbial attack. Analysis suggested that lignin formed strong hydrogen bonds with PHB in the buried samples and it is likely that the rate of breakdown of PHB is reduced, preventing rapid degradation of the blends.

Low rank Runge-Kutta methods, symplecticity and stochastic Hamiltonian problems with additive noise

In this paper we extend the ideas of Brugnano, Iavernaro and Trigiante in their development of HBVM($s,r$) methods to construct symplectic Runge-Kutta methods for all values of $s$ and $r$ with $s\geq r$. However, these methods do not see the dramatic performance improvement that HBVMs can attain. Nevertheless, in the case of additive stochastic Hamiltonian problems an extension of these ideas, which requires the simulation of an independent Wiener process at each stage of a Runge-Kutta method, leads to methods that have very favourable properties. These ideas are illustrated by some simple numerical tests for the modified midpoint rule.

Reclaiming professionalism for geography education : defending our own territory

In a world where governments increasingly attempt to impose regulation on all professional activities, this paper advocates that professional standards for teachers be developed ‘by the profession for the profession’. Foucauldian archaeology is applied to two teacher standards documents recently published in Australia, one developed at national governmental level and the other by geography teachers through their professional associations. The excavation reveals that both students and geography teachers themselves are better served when teachers assert their own definition of professionalism and thus reclaim their professional territory, rather than being compliant with generic governmental agendas. Whilst we use Australia as an illustrative example, our findings are applicable to all other countries where governments attempt to impose external professional standards on the teaching profession.

Employee perceptions of reputation : an ethnographic study

The ability of organizational members to identify and analyse stakeholder opinion is critical to the management of corporate reputation. In spite of the significance of these abilities to corporate reputation management, there has been little effort to document and describe internal organizational influences on such capacities. This ethnographic study conducted in Red Cross Queensland explores how cultural knowledge structures derived from shared values and assumptions among organizational members influence their conceptualisations of organizational reputation. Specifically, this study explores how a central attribute of organizational culture – the property of cultural selection – influences perceptions of organizational reputation held by organizational members. We argue that these perceptions are the result of collective processes that synthesise (with varying degrees of consensus) member conceptualisations, interpretations, and representations of environmental realities in which their organization operates. Findings and implications for organizational action suggest that while external indicators of organizational reputation are acknowledged by members as significant, the internal influence of organizational culture is a far stronger influence on organizational action.