The quantum inspired modelling of changing attitudes and self-organising societies

We utilise the well-developed quantum decision models known to the QI community to create a higher order social decision making model. A simple Agent Based Model (ABM) of a society of agents with changing attitudes towards a social issue is presented, where the private attitudes of individuals in the system are represented using a geometric structure inspired by quantum theory. We track the changing attitudes of the members of that society, and their resulting propensities to act, or not, in a given social context. A number of new issues surrounding this "scaling up" of quantum decision theories are discussed, as well as new directions and opportunities.

Modelling and analysis of the crush zone of a typical Australian passenger train

In this paper, a three-dimensional nonlinear rigid body model has been developed for the investigation of the crashworthiness of a passenger train using the multibody dynamics approach. This model refers to a typical design of passenger cars and train constructs commonly used in Australia. The high-energy and low-energy crush zones of the cars and the train constructs are assumed and the data are explicitly provided in the paper. The crash scenario is limited to the train colliding on to a fixed barrier symmetrically. The simulations of a single car show that this initial design is only applicable for the crash speed of 35 km/h or lower. For higher speeds (e.g. 140 km/h), the crush lengths or crush forces or both the crush zone elements will have to be enlarged. It is generally better to increase the crush length than the crush force in order to retain the low levels of the longitudinal deceleration of the passenger cars.

Towards determining soft tissue properties for modelling spine surgery : current progress and challenges

Current complication rates for adolescent scoliosis surgery necessitate the development of better surgical planning tools to improve outcomes. Here we present our approach to developing finite element models of the thoracolumbar spine for deformity surgery simulation, with patient-specific model anatomy based on low-dose pre-operative computed tomography scans. In a first step towards defining patient-specific tissue properties, an initial 'benchmark' set of properties were used to simulate a clinically performed pre-operative spinal flexibility assessment, the fulcrum bending radiograph. Clinical data for ten patients were compared with the simulated results for this assessment and in cases where these data differed by more than 10%, soft tissue properties for the costo-vertebral joint (CVJt) were altered to achieve better agreement. Results from these analyses showed that changing the CVJt stiffness resulted in acceptable agreement between clinical and simulated flexibility in two of the six cases. In light of these results and those of our previous studies in this area, it is suggested that spinal flexibility in the fulcrum bending test is not governed by any single soft tissue structure acting in isolation. More detailed biomechanical characterisation of the fulcrum bending test is required to provide better data for determination of patient-specific soft tissue properties.

Differential expression of chemokine and matrix re-modelling genes is associated with contrasting schistosome-induced hepatopathology in murine models

The pathological outcomes of schistosomiasis are largely dependent on the molecular and cellular mechanisms of the host immune response. In this study, we investigated the contribution of variations in host gene expression to the contrasting hepatic pathology observed between two inbred mouse strains following Schistosoma japonicum infection. Whole genome microarray analysis was employed in conjunction with histological and immunohistochemical analysis to define and compare the hepatic gene expression profiles and cellular composition associated with the hepatopathology observed in S. japonicum-infected BALB/c and CBA mice. We show that the transcriptional profiles differ significantly between the two mouse strains with high statistical confidence. We identified specific genes correlating with the more severe pathology associated with CBA mice, as well as genes which may confer the milder degree of pathology associated with BALB/c mice. In BALB/c mice, neutrophil genes exhibited striking increases in expression, which coincided with the significantly greater accumulation of neutrophils at granulomatous regions seen in histological sections of hepatic tissue. In contrast, up-regulated expression of the eosinophil chemokine CCL24 in CBA mice paralleled the cellular influx of eosinophils to the hepatic granulomas. Additionally, there was greater down-regulation of genes involved in metabolic processes in CBA mice, reflecting the more pronounced hepatic damage in these mice. Profibrotic genes showed similar levels of expression in both mouse strains, as did genes associated with Th1 and Th2 responses. However, imbalances in expression of matrix metalloproteinases (e.g. MMP12, MMP13) and tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMP1) may contribute to the contrasting pathology observed in the two strains. Overall, these results provide a more complete picture of the molecular and cellular mechanisms which govern the pathological outcome of hepatic schistosomiasis. This improved understanding of the immunopathogenesis in the murine model schistosomiasis provides the basis for a better appreciation of the complexities associated with chronic human schistosomiasis.

Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Numerical modelling of load bearing LSF Walls under fire conditions

Abstract. Fire safety of light gauge cold-formed steel frame (LSF) stud walls is significant in the design of buildings. In this research, finite element thermal models of both the traditional LSF wall panels with cavity insulation and the new LSF composite wall panels were developed to simulate their thermal behaviour under standard and real design fire conditions. Suitable thermal properties were proposed for plasterboards and insulations based on laboratory tests and literature review. The developed models were then validated by comparing their results with available fire test results. This paper presents the details of the developed finite element models of load bearing LSF wall panels and the thermal analysis results. It shows that finite element models can be used to simulate the thermal behaviour of load bearing LSF walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards. Failure times of load bearing LSF walls were also predicted based on the results from finite element thermal analyses.

Correlation-based damage detection for complicated truss bridges using multi-layer genetic algorithms

The study presents a multi-layer genetic algorithm (GA) approach using correlation-based methods to facilitate damage determination for through-truss bridge structures. To begin, the structure’s damage-suspicious elements are divided into several groups. In the first GA layer, the damage is initially optimised for all groups using correlation objective function. In the second layer, the groups are combined to larger groups and the optimisation starts over at the normalised point of the first layer result. Then the identification process repeats until reaching the final layer where one group includes all structural elements and only minor optimisations are required to fine tune the final result. Several damage scenarios on a complicated through-truss bridge example are nominated to address the proposed approach’s effectiveness. Structural modal strain energy has been employed as the variable vector in the correlation function for damage determination. Simulations and comparison with the traditional single-layer optimisation shows that the proposed approach is efficient and feasible for complicated truss bridge structures when the measurement noise is taken into account.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Innovative damage assessment of steel truss bridges using modal strain energy correlation

As a part of vital infrastructure and transportation network, bridge structures must function safely at all times. Bridges are designed to have a long life span. At any point in time, however, some bridges are aged. The ageing of bridge structures, given the rapidly growing demand of heavy and fast inter-city passages and continuous increase of freight transportation, would require diligence on bridge owners to ensure that the infrastructure is healthy at reasonable cost. In recent decades, a new technique, structural health monitoring (SHM), has emerged to meet this challenge. In this new engineering discipline, structural modal identification and damage detection have formed a vital component. Witnessed by an increasing number of publications is that the change in vibration characteristics is widely and deeply investigated to assess structural damage. Although a number of publications have addressed the feasibility of various methods through experimental verifications, few of them have focused on steel truss bridges. Finding a feasible vibration-based damage indicator for steel truss bridges and solving the difficulties in practical modal identification to support damage detection motivated this research project. This research was to derive an innovative method to assess structural damage in steel truss bridges. First, it proposed a new damage indicator that relies on optimising the correlation between theoretical and measured modal strain energy. The optimisation is powered by a newly proposed multilayer genetic algorithm. In addition, a selection criterion for damage-sensitive modes has been studied to achieve more efficient and accurate damage detection results. Second, in order to support the proposed damage indicator, the research studied the applications of two state-of-the-art modal identification techniques by considering some practical difficulties: the limited instrumentation, the influence of environmental noise, the difficulties in finite element model updating, and the data selection problem in the output-only modal identification methods. The numerical (by a planer truss model) and experimental (by a laboratory through truss bridge) verifications have proved the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed damage detection scheme. The modal strain energy-based indicator was found to be sensitive to the damage in steel truss bridges with incomplete measurement. It has shown the damage indicator's potential in practical applications of steel truss bridges. Lastly, the achievement and limitation of this study, and lessons learnt from the modal analysis have been summarised.

Removal of toxic metals in a multi metal system using sorbents for potential application to urban stormwater treatment

In the context of increasing demand for potable water and the depletion of water resources, stormwater is a logical alternative. However, stormwater contains pollutants, among which metals are of particular interest due to their toxicity and persistence in the environment. Hence, it is imperative to remove toxic metals in stormwater to the levels prescribed by drinking water guidelines for potable use. Consequently, various techniques have been proposed, among which sorption using low cost sorbents is economically viable and environmentally benign in comparison to other techniques. However, sorbents show affinity towards certain toxic metals, which results in poor removal of other toxic metals. It was hypothesised in this study that a mixture of sorbents that have different metal affinity patterns can be used for the efficient removal of a range of toxic metals commonly found in stormwater. The performance of six sorbents in the sorption of Al, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn and Cd, which are the toxic metals commonly found in urban stormwater, was investigated to select suitable sorbents for creating the mixtures. For this purpose, a multi criteria analytical protocol was developed using the decision making methods: PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) and GAIA (Graphical Analysis for Interactive Assistance). Zeolite and seaweed were selected for the creation of trial mixtures based on their metal affinity pattern and the performance on predetermined selection criteria. The metal sorption mechanisms employed by seaweed and zeolite were defined using kinetics, isotherm and thermodynamics parameters, which were determined using the batch sorption experiments. Additionally, the kinetics rate-limiting steps were identified using an innovative approach using GAIA and Spearman correlation techniques developed as part of the study, to overcome the limitation in conventional graphical methods in predicting the degree of contribution of each kinetics step in limiting the overall metal removal rate. The sorption kinetics of zeolite was found to be primarily limited by intraparticle diffusion followed by the sorption reaction steps, which were governed mainly by the hydrated ionic diameter of metals. The isotherm study indicated that the metal sorption mechanism of zeolite was primarily of a physical nature. The thermodynamics study confirmed that the energetically favourable nature of sorption increased in the order of Zn < Cu < Cd < Ni < Pb < Cr < Al, which is in agreement with metal sorption affinity of zeolite. Hence, sorption thermodynamics has an influence on the metal sorption affinity of zeolite. On the other hand, the primary kinetics rate-limiting step of seaweed was the sorption reaction process followed by intraparticle diffusion. The boundary layer diffusion was also found to limit the metal sorption kinetics at low concentration. According to the sorption isotherm study, Cd, Pb, Cr and Al were sorbed by seaweed via ion exchange, whilst sorption of Ni occurred via physisorption. Furthermore, ionic bonding is responsible for the sorption of Zn. The thermodynamics study confirmed that sorption by seaweed was energetically favourable in the order of Zn < Cu < Cd < Cr . Al < Pb < Ni. However, this did not agree with the affinity series derived for seaweed suggesting a limited influence of sorption thermodynamics on metal affinity for seaweed. The investigation of zeolite-seaweed mixtures indicated that mixing sorbents have an effect on the kinetics rates and the sorption affinity. Additionally, the theoretical relationships were derived to predict the boundary layer diffusion rate, intraparticle diffusion rate, the sorption reaction rate and the enthalpy of mixtures based on that of individual sorbents. In general, low coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationships between theoretical and experimental data indicated that the relationships were not statistically significant. This was attributed to the heterogeneity of the properties of sorbents. Nevertheless, in relative terms, the intraparticle diffusion rate, sorption reaction rate and enthalpy of sorption had higher R2 values than the boundary layer diffusion rate suggesting that there was some relationship between the former set of parameters of mixtures and that of sorbents. The mixture, which contained 80% of zeolite and 20% of seaweed, showed similar affinity for the sorption of Cu, Ni, Cd, Cr and Al, which was attributed to approximately similar sorption enthalpy of the metal ions. Therefore, it was concluded that the seaweed-zeolite mixture can be used to obtain the same affinity for various metals present in a multi metal system provided the metal ions have similar enthalpy during sorption by the mixture.

Finite element modelling of load bearing steel stud walls under real building fires

Fire safety has become an important part in structural design due to the ever increasing loss of properties and lives during fires. Conventionally the fire rating of load bearing wall systems made of Light gauge Steel Frames (LSF) is determined using fire tests based on the standard time-temperature curve given in ISO 834 (ISO, 1999). The standard time-temperature curve given in ISO 834 (ISO, 1999) originated from the application of wood burning furnaces in the early 1900s. However, modern commercial and residential buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, which mean considerably high fuel loads. Hence a detailed fire research study into the performance of LSF walls was undertaken using the developed real fire curves based on Eurocode parametric curves (ECS, 2002) and Barnett’s BFD curves (Barnett, 2002) using both full scale fire tests and numerical studies. It included LSF walls without any insulation, and the recently developed externally insulated composite panel system. This paper presents the details of the numerical studies and the results. It also includes brief details of the development of real building fire curves and experimental studies.

Modelling the flow of cane constituents in the milling process

A model has been developed to track the flow of cane constituents through the milling process. While previous models have tracked the flow of fibre, brix and water through the process, this model tracks the soluble and insoluble solid cane components using modelling theory and experiment data, assisting in further understanding the flow of constituents into mixed juice and final bagasse. The work provided an opportunity to understand the factors which affect the distribution of the cane constituents in juice and bagasse. Application of the model should lead to improvements in the overall performance of the milling train.

Modelling resilience in a water supply system : contrasting conditions of drought and flood

This paper presents an approach to modelling the resilience of a generic (potable) water supply system. The system is contextualized as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the natural catchment, the water treatment plant and the water distribution infrastructure for urban use. An abstract mathematical model of the meta-system is disaggregated progressively to form a cascade of equations forming a relational matrix of models. This allows the investigation of commonly implicit relationships between various operational components within the meta system, the in-depth understanding of specific system components and influential factors and the incorporation of explicit disturbances to explore system behaviour. Consequently, this will facilitate long-term decision making to achieve sustainable solutions for issues such as, meeting a growing demand or managing supply-side influences in the meta-system under diverse water availability regimes. This approach is based on the hypothesis that the means to achieve resilient supply of water may be better managed by modelling the effects of changes at specific levels that have a direct or in some cases indirect impact on higher-order outcomes. Additionally, the proposed strategy allows the definition of approaches to combine disparate data sets to synthesise previously missing or incomplete higher-order information, a scientifically robust means to define and carry out meta-analyses using knowledge from diverse yet relatable disciplines relevant to different levels of the system and for enhancing the understanding of dependencies and inter-dependencies of variable factors at various levels across the meta-system. The proposed concept introduces an approach for modelling a complex infrastructure system as a meta system which consists of a combination of bio-ecological, technical and socio-technical subsystems.