467 resultados para Prediction techniques


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Using cooperative learning in classrooms promotes academic achievement, communication skills, problem-solving, social skills and student motivation. Yet it is reported that cooperative learning as a Western educational concept may be ineffective in Asian cultural contexts. The study aims to investigate the utilisation of scaffolding techniques for cooperative learning in Thailand primary mathematics classes. A teacher training program was designed to foster Thai primary school teachers’ cooperative learning implementation. Two teachers participated in this experimental program for one and a half weeks and then implemented cooperative learning strategies in their mathematics classes for six weeks. The data collected from teacher interviews and classroom observations indicates that the difficulty or failure of implementing cooperative learning in Thailand education may not be directly derived from cultural differences. Instead, it does indicate that Thai culture can be constructively merged with cooperative learning through a teacher training program and practices of scaffolding techniques.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Airport efficiency is important because it has a direct impact on customer safety and satisfaction and therefore the financial performance and sustainability of airports, airlines, and affiliated service providers. This is especially so in a world characterized by an increasing volume of both domestic and international air travel, price and other forms of competition between rival airports, airport hubs and airlines, and rapid and sometimes unexpected changes in airline routes and carriers. It also reflects expansion in the number of airports handling regional, national, and international traffic and the growth of complementary airport facilities including industrial, commercial, and retail premises. This has fostered a steadily increasing volume of research aimed at modeling and providing best-practice measures and estimates of airport efficiency using mathematical and econometric frontiers. The purpose of this chapter is to review these various methods as they apply to airports throughout the world. Apart from discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and their key findings, the paper also examines the steps faced by researchers as they move through the modeling process in defining airport inputs and outputs and the purported efficiency drivers. Accordingly, the chapter provides guidance to those conducting empirical research on airport efficiency and serves as an aid for aviation regulators and airport operators among others interpreting airport efficiency research outcomes.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Purpose The aim of this study was to examine the expression and prognostic relevance of thrombospondin-1 (TSP-1) in tumor biopsies taken from a consecutive series of liver resections done at the University Hospitals of Leicester and the Royal Liverpool Hospital. Experimental Design Patients having undergone a liver resection for colorectal liver metastases at our institutions between 1993 and 1999 inclusive were eligible. Inclusion criteria were curative intent, sufficient tumor biopsy, and patient follow-up data. One hundred eighty-two patients were considered in this study. Standard immunohistochemical techniques were used to study the expression of TSP-1 in 5-μm tumor sections from paraffin-embedded tissue blocks. TSP-1 was correlated with survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for univariate analysis and the Cox proportional hazard model for multivariate analysis. Results One hundred eighty-two patients (male, n = 122 and female, n = 60) ages between 25 and 81 years (mean, 61 years) were included. TSP-1 was expressed around blood vessels (n = 45, 25%) or in the stroma (n = 59, 33%). No expression was detected in the remaining tumors. TSP-1 significantly correlated with poor survival on univariate (P = 0.01 for perivascular expression and P = 0.03 for stromal expression) and multivariate analysis (P = 0.01 for perivascular expression). Conclusion TSP-1 is a negatively prognostic factor for survival in resected colorectal liver metastases. © 2005 American Association for Cancer Research.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In particle-strengthened metallic alloys, fatigue damage incubates at inclusion particles near the surface or at the change of geometries. Micromechanical simulation of inclusions such that the fatigue damage incubation mechanisms can be categorized. As micro-plasticity gradient field around different inclusions is different, a novel concept for nonlocal evaluation of micro-plasticity intensity is introduced. The effects of void aspects ration and spatial distributions are quantified for fatigue incubation life in the high-cycle fatigue regime. At last, these effects are integrated based on the statistical facts of inclusions to predict the fatigue life of structural components.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Diagnostics of rolling element bearings involves a combination of different techniques of signal enhancing and analysis. The most common procedure presents a first step of order tracking and synchronous averaging, able to remove the undesired components, synchronous with the shaft harmonics, from the signal, and a final step of envelope analysis to obtain the squared envelope spectrum. This indicator has been studied thoroughly, and statistically based criteria have been obtained, in order to identify damaged bearings. The statistical thresholds are valid only if all the deterministic components in the signal have been removed. Unfortunately, in various industrial applications, characterized by heterogeneous vibration sources, the first step of synchronous averaging is not sufficient to eliminate completely the deterministic components and an additional step of pre-whitening is needed before the envelope analysis. Different techniques have been proposed in the past with this aim: The most widely spread are linear prediction filters and spectral kurtosis. Recently, a new technique for pre-whitening has been proposed, based on cepstral analysis: the so-called cepstrum pre-whitening. Owing to its low computational requirements and its simplicity, it seems a good candidate to perform the intermediate pre-whitening step in an automatic damage recognition algorithm. In this paper, the effectiveness of the new technique will be tested on the data measured on a full-scale industrial bearing test-rig, able to reproduce the harsh conditions of operation. A benchmark comparison with the traditional pre-whitening techniques will be made, as a final step for the verification of the potentiality of the cepstrum pre-whitening.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Over the past decade, vision-based tracking systems have been successfully deployed in professional sports such as tennis and cricket for enhanced broadcast visualizations as well as aiding umpiring decisions. Despite the high-level of accuracy of the tracking systems and the sheer volume of spatiotemporal data they generate, the use of this high quality data for quantitative player performance and prediction has been lacking. In this paper, we present a method which predicts the location of a future shot based on the spatiotemporal parameters of the incoming shots (i.e. shot speed, location, angle and feet location) from such a vision system. Having the ability to accurately predict future short-term events has enormous implications in the area of automatic sports broadcasting in addition to coaching and commentary domains. Using Hawk-Eye data from the 2012 Australian Open Men's draw, we utilize a Dynamic Bayesian Network to model player behaviors and use an online model adaptation method to match the player's behavior to enhance shot predictability. To show the utility of our approach, we analyze the shot predictability of the top 3 players seeds in the tournament (Djokovic, Federer and Nadal) as they played the most amounts of games.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper presents a comparative study on the response of a buried tunnel to surface blast using the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) techniques. Since explosive tests with real physical models are extremely risky and expensive, the results of a centrifuge test were used to validate the numerical techniques. The numerical study shows that the ALE predictions were faster and closer to the experimental results than those from the SPH simulations which over predicted the strains. The findings of this research demonstrate the superiority of the ALE modelling techniques for the present study. They also provide a comprehensive understanding of the preferred ALE modelling techniques which can be used to investigate the surface blast response of underground tunnels.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety in individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuro-images that are routinely available in clinical practice. METHODS: Two experienced neuro-ophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which provided information regarding the site and extent of the lesion and made predictions regarding whether they would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was defined using two independent measures: (1) The potential for safe driving was defined based upon whether the participant was rated as having the potential for safe driving, determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist conducted just prior and (2) state recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault). Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study by state recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) recorded over the previous 5 years, as well as whether the participant was rated as having the potential for safe driving, determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. RESULTS: The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving outcome measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from -0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuro-ophthalmologists was also only fair (kappa =0.28). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that clinical evaluation of summary reports currently available neuro-images by neuro-ophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Big Data presents many challenges related to volume, whether one is interested in studying past datasets or, even more problematically, attempting to work with live streams of data. The most obvious challenge, in a ‘noisy’ environment such as contemporary social media, is to collect the pertinent information; be that information for a specific study, tweets which can inform emergency services or other responders to an ongoing crisis, or give an advantage to those involved in prediction markets. Often, such a process is iterative, with keywords and hashtags changing with the passage of time, and both collection and analytic methodologies need to be continually adapted to respond to this changing information. While many of the data sets collected and analyzed are preformed, that is they are built around a particular keyword, hashtag, or set of authors, they still contain a large volume of information, much of which is unnecessary for the current purpose and/or potentially useful for future projects. Accordingly, this panel considers methods for separating and combining data to optimize big data research and report findings to stakeholders. The first paper considers possible coding mechanisms for incoming tweets during a crisis, taking a large stream of incoming tweets and selecting which of those need to be immediately placed in front of responders, for manual filtering and possible action. The paper suggests two solutions for this, content analysis and user profiling. In the former case, aspects of the tweet are assigned a score to assess its likely relationship to the topic at hand, and the urgency of the information, whilst the latter attempts to identify those users who are either serving as amplifiers of information or are known as an authoritative source. Through these techniques, the information contained in a large dataset could be filtered down to match the expected capacity of emergency responders, and knowledge as to the core keywords or hashtags relating to the current event is constantly refined for future data collection. The second paper is also concerned with identifying significant tweets, but in this case tweets relevant to particular prediction market; tennis betting. As increasing numbers of professional sports men and women create Twitter accounts to communicate with their fans, information is being shared regarding injuries, form and emotions which have the potential to impact on future results. As has already been demonstrated with leading US sports, such information is extremely valuable. Tennis, as with American Football (NFL) and Baseball (MLB) has paid subscription services which manually filter incoming news sources, including tweets, for information valuable to gamblers, gambling operators, and fantasy sports players. However, whilst such services are still niche operations, much of the value of information is lost by the time it reaches one of these services. The paper thus considers how information could be filtered from twitter user lists and hash tag or keyword monitoring, assessing the value of the source, information, and the prediction markets to which it may relate. The third paper examines methods for collecting Twitter data and following changes in an ongoing, dynamic social movement, such as the Occupy Wall Street movement. It involves the development of technical infrastructure to collect and make the tweets available for exploration and analysis. A strategy to respond to changes in the social movement is also required or the resulting tweets will only reflect the discussions and strategies the movement used at the time the keyword list is created — in a way, keyword creation is part strategy and part art. In this paper we describe strategies for the creation of a social media archive, specifically tweets related to the Occupy Wall Street movement, and methods for continuing to adapt data collection strategies as the movement’s presence in Twitter changes over time. We also discuss the opportunities and methods to extract data smaller slices of data from an archive of social media data to support a multitude of research projects in multiple fields of study. The common theme amongst these papers is that of constructing a data set, filtering it for a specific purpose, and then using the resulting information to aid in future data collection. The intention is that through the papers presented, and subsequent discussion, the panel will inform the wider research community not only on the objectives and limitations of data collection, live analytics, and filtering, but also on current and in-development methodologies that could be adopted by those working with such datasets, and how such approaches could be customized depending on the project stakeholders.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper proposes techniques to improve the performance of i-vector based speaker verification systems when only short utterances are available. Short-length utterance i-vectors vary with speaker, session variations, and the phonetic content of the utterance. Well established methods such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA), source-normalized LDA (SN-LDA) and within-class covariance normalisation (WCCN) exist for compensating the session variation but we have identified the variability introduced by phonetic content due to utterance variation as an additional source of degradation when short-duration utterances are used. To compensate for utterance variations in short i-vector speaker verification systems using cosine similarity scoring (CSS), we have introduced a short utterance variance normalization (SUVN) technique and a short utterance variance (SUV) modelling approach at the i-vector feature level. A combination of SUVN with LDA and SN-LDA is proposed to compensate the session and utterance variations and is shown to provide improvement in performance over the traditional approach of using LDA and/or SN-LDA followed by WCCN. An alternative approach is also introduced using probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach to directly model the SUV. The combination of SUVN, LDA and SN-LDA followed by SUV PLDA modelling provides an improvement over the baseline PLDA approach. We also show that for this combination of techniques, the utterance variation information needs to be artificially added to full-length i-vectors for PLDA modelling.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Talk of Big Data seems to be everywhere. Indeed, the apparently value-free concept of ‘data’ has seen a spectacular broadening of popular interest, shifting from the dry terminology of labcoat-wearing scientists to the buzzword du jour of marketers. In the business world, data is increasingly framed as an economic asset of critical importance, a commodity on a par with scarce natural resources (Backaitis, 2012; Rotella, 2012). It is social media that has most visibly brought the Big Data moment to media and communication studies, and beyond it, to the social sciences and humanities. Social media data is one of the most important areas of the rapidly growing data market (Manovich, 2012; Steele, 2011). Massive valuations are attached to companies that directly collect and profit from social media data, such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as to resellers and analytics companies like Gnip and DataSift. The expectation attached to the business models of these companies is that their privileged access to data and the resulting valuable insights into the minds of consumers and voters will make them irreplaceable in the future. Analysts and consultants argue that advanced statistical techniques will allow the detection of ongoing communicative events (natural disasters, political uprisings) and the reliable prediction of future ones (electoral choices, consumption)...

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Pile foundations transfer loads from superstructures to stronger sub soil. Their strength and stability can hence affect structural safety. This paper treats the response of reinforced concrete pile in saturated sand to a buried explosion. Fully coupled computer simulation techniques are used together with five different material models. Influence of reinforcement on pile response is investigated and important safety parameters of horizontal deformations and tensile stresses in the pile are evaluated. Results indicate that adequate longitudinal reinforcement and proper detailing of transverse reinforcement can reduce pile damage. Present findings can serve as a benchmark reference for future analysis and design.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Body composition of 292 males aged between 18 and 65 years was measured using the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Participants were divided into development (n=146) and cross-validation (n=146) groups. Stature, body weight, skinfold thickness at eight sites, girth at five sites, and bone breadth at four sites were measured and body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) calculated. Equations were developed using multiple regression analyses with skinfolds, breadth and girth measures, BMI, and other indices as independent variables and percentage body fat (%BF) determined from deuterium dilution technique as the reference. All equations were then tested in the cross-validation group. Results from the reference method were also compared with existing prediction equations by Durnin and Womersley (1974), Davidson et al (2011), and Gurrici et al (1998). The proposed prediction equations were valid in our cross-validation samples with r=0.77- 0.86, bias 0.2-0.5%, and pure error 2.8-3.6%. The strongest was generated from skinfolds with r=0.83, SEE 3.7%, and AIC 377.2. The Durnin and Womersley (1974) and Davidson et al (2011) equations significantly (p<0.001) underestimated %BF by 1.0 and 6.9% respectively, whereas the Gurrici et al (1998) equation significantly (p<0.001) overestimated %BF by 3.3% in our cross-validation samples compared to the reference. Results suggest that the proposed prediction equations are useful in the estimation of %BF in Indonesian men.