Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

eHealth-as-a-Service (eHaaS) : the industrialisation of health informatics, a practical approach

With the introduction of the Personally Controlled Health Record (PCEHR), the Australian public is being asked to accept greater responsibility for their healthcare. Although well designed, constructed and intentioned, policy and privacy concerns have resulted in an eHealth model that may impact future health information sharing requirements. Thus an opportunity to transform the beleaguered Australian PCEHR into a sustainable on-demand technology consumption model for patient safety must be explored further. Moreover, the current clerical focus of healthcare practitioners must be renegotiated to establish a shared knowledge creation landscape of action for safer patient interventions. To achieve this potential however requires a platform that will facilitate efficient and trusted unification of all health information available in real-time across the continuum of care. As a conceptual paper, the goal of the authors is to deliver insights into the antecedents of usage influencing superior patient outcomes within an eHealth-as-a-Service framework. To achieve this, the paper attempts to distil key concepts and identify common themes drawn from a preliminary literature review of eHealth and cloud computing concepts, specifically cloud service orchestration to establish a conceptual framework and a research agenda. Initial findings support the authors’ view that an eHealth-as-a-Service (eHaaS) construct will serve as a disruptive paradigm shift in the aggregation and transformation of health information for use as real-world knowledge in patient care scenarios. Moreover, the strategic value of extending the community Health Record Bank (HRB) model lies in the ability to automatically draw on a multitude of relevant data repositories and sources to create a single source of practice based evidence and to engage market forces to create financial sustainability.

Institutional investors, risk/return and corporate governance : practical lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

The global grown in institutional investors means that firms can no longer ignore their influence in capital markets. However, not all institutional investors have the same motives to influence the firms they invest in. Institution investors' ability to influence management depends on the size of their investment and whether they have any business relations with the firm. Using a sample of Australian firms from 2006 to 2008, our empirical results show that the proportion of a company's shares held by institutional investors is positively associated with firm governance ratings, risk and profitability. This study shows that a positive association between risk and return is associated with large active institutional ownership, which we interpret as shareholders with sufficient power to pressure management to increase short-term profits.

Regulating supply-chains to address the occupational health and safety problems associated with precarious employment: The case of home-based clothing workers in Australia

Over the past 20 years the labour market, workforce and work organisation of most if not all industrialised countries have been significantly refashioned by the increased use of more flexible work arrangements, variously labelled as precarious employment or contingent work. There is now a substantial and growing body of international evidence that many of these arrangements are associated with a significant deterioration in occupational health and safety (OHS), using a range of measures such as injury rates, disease, hazard exposures and work-related stress. Moreover, there is an emerging body of evidence that these arrangements pose particular problems for conventional regulatory regimes. Recognition of these problems has aroused the concern of policy makers - especially in Europe, North America and Australia - and a number of responses have been adopted in terms of modifying legislation, producing new guidance material and codes of practice and revised enforcement practices. This article describes one such in itiative in Australia with regard to home-based clothing workers. The regulatory strategy developed in one Australian jurisdiction (and now being ‘exported’ into others) seeks to counter this process via contractual tracking mechanisms to follow the work, tie in liability and shift overarching legal responsibility to the top of the supply chain. The process also entails the integration of minimum standards relating to wages, hours and working conditions; OHS and access to workers’ compensation. While home-based clothing manufacture represents a very old type of ‘flexible’ work arrangement, it is one that regulators have found especially difficult to address. Further, the elaborate multi-tiered subcont racting and diffuse work locations found in this industry are also characteristic of newer forms of contingent work in other industries (such as some telework) and the regulatory challenges they pose (such as the tendency of elaborate supply chains to attenuate and fracture statutory responsibilities, at least in terms of the attitudes and behaviour of those involved).

A distributed computing framework for all-to-all comparison problems

Distributed computation and storage have been widely used for processing of big data sets. For many big data problems, with the size of data growing rapidly, the distribution of computing tasks and related data can affect the performance of the computing system greatly. In this paper, a distributed computing framework is presented for high performance computing of All-to-All Comparison Problems. A data distribution strategy is embedded in the framework for reduced storage space and balanced computing load. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed approach. They have shown that about 88% of the ideal performance capacity have be achieved in multiple machines through using the approach presented in this paper.

Computation of Mathematical Models for Complex Industrial Processes

Designed for undergraduate and postgraduate students, academic researchers and industrial practitioners, this book provides comprehensive case studies on numerical computing of industrial processes and step-by-step procedures for conducting industrial computing. It assumes minimal knowledge in numerical computing and computer programming, making it easy to read, understand and follow. Topics discussed include fundamentals of industrial computing, finite difference methods, the Wavelet-Collocation Method, the Wavelet-Galerkin Method, High Resolution Methods, and comparative studies of various methods. These are discussed using examples of carefully selected models from real processes of industrial significance. The step-by-step procedures in all these case studies can be easily applied to other industrial processes without a need for major changes and thus provide readers with useful frameworks for the applications of engineering computing in fundamental research problems and practical development scenarios.

Agency problems of corporate philanthropy

Evaluating agency theory and optimal contracting theory views of corporate philanthropy, we find that as corporate giving increases, shareholders reduce their valuation of firm cash holdings. Dividend increases following the 2003 Tax Reform Act are associated with reduced corporate giving. Using a natural experiment, we find that corporate giving is positively (negatively) associated with CEO charity preferences (CEO shareholdings and corporate governance quality). Evidence from CEO-affiliated charity donations, market reactions to insider-affiliated donations, its relation to CEO compensation, and firm contributions to director-affiliated charities indicates that corporate donations advance CEO interests and suggests misuses of corporate resources that reduce firm value.

Growing men's health: Broadening the conceptual and practical agenda

It still surprises those of us working on men’s issues that it has taken so long to realise – and that there is so little real grassroots support and advocacy for – men’s health as a legitimate domain in public health. The men’s movement – such as it is (see Connell 2005/1995) – goes back to the late 1970s; the gay men’s movement started earlier and the gay men’s health movement has been better organised and articulated since then (if one understands and concedes the central place that HIV/AIDS has taken during the last 28 years). What men’s health will become, what it will include, redefine and incorporate in the next ten years is interesting to consider.

Enhancing Raman signal sufficiently for practical sensing applications

Techniques are presented for enhancing weak Raman scattering signals for rapid yet accurate substance detection. Novel surfaces that allow signal enhancement quantification are described as are eye-safe methodologies that maximize the stand-off Raman detection range.

Analysing children’s persuasive texts : the use of hedging and intensification

Research Quality This is a dialogue between two Australian literacy scholars about two persuasive writing techniques that posed difficulty for the students in our research. This dialogue flows from the analysis of Year 6 writing samples from an ARC Linkage Project, URLearning (2009-2013) - the focus of the symposium. We use vivid examples of writing from students’ handwritten persuasive texts on topics that were chosen by teachers. The persuasive structure in the texts followed the Toulmin (2003) model: a thesis statement, three arguments with evidence, and a conclusion. The findings show that to realise the effective power of rhetorical persuasion, students need an expanded lexicon that does not rely on intensifiers, and which employs a greater range of advanced hedging techniques to use to their advantage. National & International Importance The study is potentially of national and international relevance, given that argumentation or persuasion is a key life skill in many professional, personal, and discourses. It is also a requirement in the International English Language Testing Systems (IELTS) tests, which are a critical gateway for tertiary studies in many English-speaking countries (Coffin, 2004). Timeliness The research is timely given the Australian Curriculum English, in which persuasive texts figure prominently from Preparatory to Year 10 (ACARA, 2014). The recommendations are also timely in the context of educational policies in other parts of the world. For example, in the United States, the Common Core Standards: English Language Arts, mandates the teaching of persuasive texts (Council of Chief State School Officers & National Governors Association, 2013) Implications for practice/policy The findings of the study have specific practical implications for teachers, who can address the persuasive writing techniques of hedging and intensification with which children need targeted support and explicit instruction. The presentation is positioned at the nexus of teacher practice to better address the national priorities of the Australian Curriculum: English (ACARA, 2014), while having implications for applied linguistics research by identifying common problems in students' persuasive writing.

Practical analysis of big acoustic sensor data for environmental monitoring

Monitoring the environment with acoustic sensors is an effective method for understanding changes in ecosystems. Through extensive monitoring, large-scale, ecologically relevant, datasets can be produced that can inform environmental policy. The collection of acoustic sensor data is a solved problem; the current challenge is the management and analysis of raw audio data to produce useful datasets for ecologists. This paper presents the applied research we use to analyze big acoustic datasets. Its core contribution is the presentation of practical large-scale acoustic data analysis methodologies. We describe details of the data workflows we use to provide both citizen scientists and researchers practical access to large volumes of ecoacoustic data. Finally, we propose a work in progress large-scale architecture for analysis driven by a hybrid cloud-and-local production-grade website.

Approaching wicked problems through design thinking

This paper explores possible ways in which design thinking can be used to understand the issues involved in wicked problems. Following brief reviews of both the design thinking and wicked problems literature, we offer a synthesis of these two areas. This paper distinguishes the connections of the various thinking styles inherent in design thinking methodologies and approaches to the phases of wicked problems. We create links between design thinking and cognitive mechanisms such as thinking styles, simple heuristics and schemas that can deepen understanding and effective decision making in the wicked problems in our complex environments.

Adaptive finite element analysis of elliptic problems based on bubble-type local mesh generation

A new mesh adaptivity algorithm that combines a posteriori error estimation with bubble-type local mesh generation (BLMG) strategy for elliptic differential equations is proposed. The size function used in the BLMG is defined on each vertex during the adaptive process based on the obtained error estimator. In order to avoid the excessive coarsening and refining in each iterative step, two factor thresholds are introduced in the size function. The advantages of the BLMG-based adaptive finite element method, compared with other known methods, are given as follows: the refining and coarsening are obtained fluently in the same framework; the local a posteriori error estimation is easy to implement through the adjacency list of the BLMG method; at all levels of refinement, the updated triangles remain very well shaped, even if the mesh size at any particular refinement level varies by several orders of magnitude. Several numerical examples with singularities for the elliptic problems, where the explicit error estimators are used, verify the efficiency of the algorithm. The analysis for the parameters introduced in the size function shows that the algorithm has good flexibility.