Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Multilingualism and speech-language competence in early childhood: Impact on academic and social-emotional outcomes at school

This large-scale longitudinal population study provided a rare opportunity to consider the interface between multilingualism and speech-language competence on children’s academic and social-emotional outcomes and to determine whether differences between groups at 4 to 5 years persist, deepen, or disappear with time and schooling. Four distinct groups were identified from the Kindergarten cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) (1) English-only + typical speech and language (n = 2,012); (2) multilingual + typical speech and language (n = 476); (3) English-only + speech and language concern (n = 643); and (4) multilingual + speech and language concern (n = 109). Two analytic approaches were used to compare these groups. First, a matched case-control design was used to randomly match multilingual children with speech and language concern (group 4, n = 109) to children in groups 1, 2, and 3 on gender, age, and family socio-economic position in a cross-sectional comparison of vocabulary, school readiness, and behavioral adjustment. Next, analyses were applied to the whole sample to determine longitudinal effects of group membership on teachers’ ratings of literacy, numeracy, and behavioral adjustment at ages 6 to 7 and 8 to 9 years. At 4 to 5 years, multilingual children with speech and language concern did equally well or better than English-only children (with or without speech and language concern) on school readiness tests but performed more poorly on measures of English vocabulary and behavior. At ages 6 to 7 and 8 to 9, the early gap between English-only and multilingual children had closed. Multilingualism was not found to contribute to differences in literacy and numeracy outcomes at school; instead, outcomes were more related to concerns about children’s speech and language in early childhood. There were no group differences for socio-emotional outcomes. Early evidence for the combined risks of multilingualism plus speech and language concern was not upheld into the school years.

Young drivers’ responses to anti-speeding advertisements: Comparison of self-report and objective measures of persuasive processing and outcomes

Objective Self-report measures are typically used to assess the effectiveness of road safety advertisements. However, psychophysiological measures of persuasive processing (i.e., skin conductance response [SCR]) and objective driving measures of persuasive outcomes (i.e., in-vehicle GPS devices) may provide further insights into the effectiveness of these advertisements. This study aimed to explore the persuasive processing and outcomes of two anti-speeding advertisements by incorporating both self-report and objective measures of speeding behaviour. In addition, this study aimed to compare the findings derived from these different measurement approaches. Methods Young drivers (N = 20, Mage = 21.01 years) viewed either a positive or negative emotion-based anti-speeding television advertisement. Whilst viewing the advertisement, SCR activity was measured to assess ad-evoked arousal responses. The RoadScout® GPS device was then installed into participants’ vehicles for one week to measure on-road speed-related driving behaviour. Self-report measures assessed persuasive processing (emotional and arousal responses) and actual driving behaviour. Results There was general correspondence between the self-report measures of arousal and the SCR and between the self-report measure of actual driving behaviour and the objective driving data (as assessed via the GPS devices). Conclusions This study provides insights into how psychophysiological and GPS devices could be used as objective measures in conjunction with self-report measures to further understand the persuasive processes and outcomes of emotion-based anti-speeding advertisements.

Supporting quality timely PhD completions: Delivering research outcomes

The case study used a three-phase organising process to explain how design and implementation of an accessible and interactive electronic thesis submission form streamlined quality assurance of theses and their timely dissemination via an online thesis repository. The quality of the theses submitted is assured by key academics in their final sign off of the form. It describes the role of shared cultural value in ensuring ready acceptance of a change process within one university and highlights the value of communication in achieving positive change. Quality standards as defined by an external policy framework are shown to be interpreted at the local university level to enhance the PhD completion experience. It describes the impact of moving quality assurance processes to an online environment on research activities; considering the potential for quality assurance to improve universities’ teaching, learning and research activities by facilitating academic oversight of the quality assurance process and reducing the overheads associated with monitoring, measuring and reporting on quality assurance measures.

Predicting surgical outcomes for paediatric spinal deformity patients using subject specific finite element models

INTRODUCTION Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a spinal deformity, which may require surgical correction by attaching rods to the patient’s spine using screws inserted into the vertebrae. Complication rates for deformity correction surgery are unacceptably high. Determining an achievable correction without overloading the adjacent spinal tissues or implants requires an understanding of the mechanical interaction between these components. Our novel patient specific modelling software creates individualized finite element models (FEM) representing the thoracolumbar spine and ribcage of scoliosis patients. We have recently applied the model to investigate the influence of increasing magnitudes of surgically applied corrective force on predicted deformity correction...

Organisational belongingness mediates the relationship between sources of stress and post-trauma outcomes in fire-fighters

Previous research with emergency service workers has examined the relationship between operational and organisational stress and negative indicators of mental health, and generally found that organisational stress is more strongly related to pathology than operational stress. The current study aimed to create and test a model predicting both posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and posttraumatic growth (PTG) simultaneously in a sample of fire-fighters (N = 250). The results found that the model demonstrated good fit for the data. In contrast to previous research operational stress was directly related to PTSD symptoms, while organisational stress was not. Organisational stress was indirectly related to PTG, through the mediating role of organisational belongingness. This research identified organisational belongingness as a good target for psychosocial interventions aimed at promoting positive adaptation following the experience of trauma in emergency services.

A preliminary investigation into adrenal responsiveness and outcomes in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE: This study investigated the significance of baseline cortisol levels and adrenal response to corticotropin in shocked patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: A short corticotropin stimulation test was performed in 35 patients with cardiogenic shock after AMI by intravenously injecting of 250 μg of tetracosactrin (Synacthen). Blood samples were obtained at baseline (T0) before and at 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) minutes after the test to determine plasma total cortisol (TC) and free cortisol concentrations. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality and its association with T0 TC and maximum response to corticotropin (maximum difference [Δ max] in cortisol levels between T0 and the highest value between T30 and T60). RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality was 37%, and the median time to death was 4 days (interquartile range, 3-9 days). There was some evidence of an increased mortality in patients with T0 TC concentrations greater than 34 μg/dL (P=.07). Maximum difference by itself was not an independent predictor of death. Patients with a T0 TC 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL appeared to have the most favorable survival (91%) when compared with the other 2 groups: T0 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less or T0 34 μg/dL or higher and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL (75%; P=.8) and T0 greater than 34 μg/dL and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less (60%; P=.02). Corticosteroid therapy was associated with an increased mortality (P=.03). There was a strong correlation between plasma TC and free cortisol (r=0.85). CONCLUSIONS: A high baseline plasma TC was associated with a trend toward increased mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock post-AMI. Patients with lower baseline TC, but with an inducible adrenal response, appeared to have a survival benefit. A prognostic system based on basal TC and Δ max similar to that described in septic shock appears feasible in this cohort. Corticosteroid therapy was associated with adverse outcomes. These findings require further validation in larger studies.

A comprehensive ovine model of blood transfusion

Background The growing awareness of transfusion-associated morbidity and mortality necessitates investigations into the underlying mechanisms. Small animals have been the dominant transfusion model but have associated limitations. This study aimed to develop a comprehensive large animal (ovine) model of transfusion encompassing: blood collection, processing and storage, compatibility testing right through to post-transfusion outcomes. Materials and methods Two units of blood were collected from each of 12 adult male Merino sheep and processed into 24 ovine-packed red blood cell (PRBC) units. Baseline haematological parameters of ovine blood and PRBC cells were analysed. Biochemical changes in ovine PRBCs were characterized during the 42-day storage period. Immunological compatibility of the blood was confirmed with sera from potential recipient sheep, using a saline and albumin agglutination cross-match. Following confirmation of compatibility, each recipient sheep (n = 12) was transfused with two units of ovine PRBC. Results Procedures for collecting, processing, cross-matching and transfusing ovine blood were established. Although ovine red blood cells are smaller and higher in number, their mean cell haemoglobin concentration is similar to human red blood cells. Ovine PRBC showed improved storage properties in saline–adenine–glucose–mannitol (SAG-M) compared with previous human PRBC studies. Seventy-six compatibility tests were performed and 17·1% were incompatible. Only cross-match compatible ovine PRBC were transfused and no adverse reactions were observed. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the utility of the ovine model for future blood transfusion studies and highlight the importance of compatibility testing in animal models involving homologous transfusions.

Living well with diabetes: 24-month outcomes from a randomized trial of telephone-delivered weight loss and physical activity intervention to improve glycemic control

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a telephone-delivered behavioral weight loss and physical activity intervention targeting Australian primary care patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Pragmatic randomized controlled trial of telephone counseling (n = 151) versus usual care (n = 151). Reported here are 18-month (end-of-intervention) and 24-month (maintenance) primary outcomes of weight, moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA; via accelerometer), and HbA1c level. Secondary outcomes include dietary energy intake and diet quality, waist circumference, lipid levels, and blood pressure. Data were analyzed via adjusted linear mixed models with multiple imputation of missing data. RESULTS: Relative to usual-care participants, telephone counseling participants achieved modest, but significant, improvements in weight loss (relative rate [RR] -1.42% of baseline body weight [95% CI -2.54 to -0.30% of baseline body weight]), MVPA (RR 1.42 [95% CI 1.06-1.90]), diet quality (2.72 [95% CI 0.55-4.89]), and waist circumference (-1.84 cm [95% CI -3.16 to -0.51 cm]), but not in HbA1c level (RR 0.99 [95% CI 0.96-1.02]), or other cardio-metabolic markers. None of the outcomes showed a significant change/deterioration over the maintenance period. However, only the intervention effect for MVPA remained statistically significant at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: The modest improvements in weight loss and behavior change, but the lack of changes in cardio-metabolic markers, may limit the utility, scalability, and sustainability of such an approach.

Effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life: A randomized controlled trial

Background Multiple health behavior change can ameliorate adverse effects of cancer. Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention (CanChange) for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life. Methods A total of 410 colorectal cancer survivors were randomized to a 6-month telephone-based health coaching intervention (11 sessions using acceptance and commitment therapy strategies focusing on physical activity, weight management, diet, alcohol, and smoking) or usual care. Posttraumatic growth, spirituality, acceptance, mindfulness, distress, and quality of life were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Results Significant intervention effects were observed for posttraumatic growth at 6 (7.5, p < 0.001) and 12 months (4.1, p = 0.033), spirituality at 6 months (1.8, p = 0.011), acceptance at 6 months (0.2, p = 0.005), and quality of life at 6 (0.8, p = 0.049) and 12 months (0.9, p = 0.037). Conclusions The intervention improved psychosocial outcomes and quality of life (physical well-being) at 6 months with most effects still present at 12 months. (Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12608000399392).

Informed learning in the undergraduate classroom: The role of information experiences in shaping outcomes

This research aimed to inform the design of effective information literacy lessons in higher education. Phenomenography, a research approach designed to study human experience, was used to explore the experiences of a teacher and undergraduate students using information to learn about language and gender issues. The findings show that the way learners use information influences content-focused learning outcomes, and reveal an instructional pattern for enabling students to use information while becoming aware of the topic they are investigating. Based on the findings, a design model is offered in which learning outcomes are realized through targeted information literacy activities.

Food literacy: Definitions, components, learning and links to diet and health outcomes

Recently, the term ‘food literacy’ has emerged in policy, research and practice to describe the collection of knowledge, skills and behaviours required to practically meet food needs. This presentation will described research undertaken to empirically define the term and propose its impact on nutrition

Governance and regional planning outcomes: Using governance indicators to support a policy implementation approach

Regional planning faces numerous decision making uncertainties related to the complex interdependencies between urban and regional centres. Questions about how to achieve sustainable planning solutions across regions are a key uncertainty and relate to a lack of information about the actual achievement of outcomes as proposed by the objectives of a plan. Regional plan implementation and its impact on environmental, social and economic outcomes have been little explored within Australian urban and regional planning research. Despite a desire to improve the conditions across Australian regions, ambiguity persists regarding the results of regional planning efforts. Of the variables affecting regional planning, scholars argue that governance has a significant impact on achieving outcomes (see Pahl-Wostl 2009). In order to better analyse the impact of governance, we propose a set of governance indicators to examine decisions across regional planning institutions and apply this to governance models across Queensland’s regions. We contend that these governance indicators can support a more rigorous assessment of the impacts of governance models on plan implementation and outcomes. We propose that this is a way to better understand the relationship between planning and outcomes across urban and regional areas.

Cough and ARI outcomes in urban Indigenous Children

Aim To identify cough epidemiology and outcomes in urban Indigenous children Methods An ongoing prospective cohort study of Indigenous children aged <5 years registered with at an urban Indigenous primary health care centre, Brisbane. Detailed baseline data are collected and, children are followed monthly for 12 months to capture ARI events. Children who develop cough as a symptom at any time over the 12 months have weekly follow-up for four weeks to ascertain cough outcomes. Results To date, 118 children have been enrolled (535 child-months of observation); Respiratory illnesses accounted for 23 (19 %) of overall reported reasons for presentation, however respiratory symptoms were present in 41 (35%) of all visits; a dry cough in 22 (18%), wet cough in 31 (26%). To date, 99 ARI’s have been recorded with an incidence of 18.4 episodes/100 child months. Seventeen children (14.4%) had persistent cough at day 28. Conclusion This is the first study to comprehensively describe the incidence and outcomes of cough in urban Indigenous children. Early data suggest respiratory illnesses are the most common illnesses for which these children seek medical advice and there is a high prevalence of wet cough.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.