The need for cost-effectiveness analyses of antimicrobial stewardship programmes: A structured review

The cost effectiveness of antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programmes was reviewed in hospital settings of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and limited to adult patient populations. In each of the 36 studies, the type of AMS strategy and the clinical and cost outcomes were evaluated. The main AMS strategy implemented was prospective audit with intervention and feedback (PAIF), followed by the use of rapid technology, including rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) technology, for the treatment of bloodstream infections. All but one of the 36 studies reported that AMS resulted in a reduction in pharmacy expenditure. Among 27 studies measuring changes to health outcomes, either no change was reported post-AMS, or the additional benefits achieved from these outcomes were not quantified. Only two studies performed a full economic evaluation: one on a PAIF-based AMS intervention; and the other on use of rapid technology for the selection of appropriate treatment for serious Staphylococcus aureus infections. Both studies found the interventions to be cost effective. AMS programmes achieved a reduction in pharmacy expenditure, but there was a lack of consistency in the reported cost outcomes making it difficult to compare between interventions. A failure to capture complete costs in terms of resource use makes it difficult to determine the true cost of these interventions. There is an urgent need for full economic evaluations that compare relative changes both in clinical and cost outcomes to enable identification of the most cost-effective AMS strategies in hospitals.

A flexible hierarchical approach for facial age estimation based on multiple features

Age estimation from facial images is increasingly receiving attention to solve age-based access control, age-adaptive targeted marketing, amongst other applications. Since even humans can be induced in error due to the complex biological processes involved, finding a robust method remains a research challenge today. In this paper, we propose a new framework for the integration of Active Appearance Models (AAM), Local Binary Patterns (LBP), Gabor wavelets (GW) and Local Phase Quantization (LPQ) in order to obtain a highly discriminative feature representation which is able to model shape, appearance, wrinkles and skin spots. In addition, this paper proposes a novel flexible hierarchical age estimation approach consisting of a multi-class Support Vector Machine (SVM) to classify a subject into an age group followed by a Support Vector Regression (SVR) to estimate a specific age. The errors that may happen in the classification step, caused by the hard boundaries between age classes, are compensated in the specific age estimation by a flexible overlapping of the age ranges. The performance of the proposed approach was evaluated on FG-NET Aging and MORPH Album 2 datasets and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.50 and 5.86 years was achieved respectively. The robustness of the proposed approach was also evaluated on a merge of both datasets and a MAE of 5.20 years was achieved. Furthermore, we have also compared the age estimation made by humans with the proposed approach and it has shown that the machine outperforms humans. The proposed approach is competitive with current state-of-the-art and it provides an additional robustness to blur, lighting and expression variance brought about by the local phase features.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Theoretical results of QoS-guaranteed resource scaling for cloud-based MapReduce

Quality of Service (QoS) is a new issue in cloud-based MapReduce, which is a popular computation model for parallel and distributed processing of big data. QoS guarantee is challenging in a dynamical computation environment due to the fact that a fixed resource allocation may become under-provisioning, which leads to QoS violation, or over-provisioning, which increases unnecessary resource cost. This requires runtime resource scaling to adapt environmental changes for QoS guarantee. Aiming to guarantee the QoS, which is referred as to hard deadline in this work, this paper develops a theory to determine how and when resource is scaled up/down for cloud-based MapReduce. The theory employs a nonlinear transformation to define the problem in a reverse resource space, simplifying the theoretical analysis significantly. Then, theoretical results are presented in three theorems on sufficient conditions for guaranteeing the QoS of cloud-based MapReduce. The superiority and applications of the theory are demonstrated through case studies.

Performance-based contracting for roads – Experiences of Australia and Indonesia

Many countries over the last decade, have used performance-based contracting (PBC) to manage and maintain roads. The implementation of PBC provides additional benefits for the government/public such as cost savings and improved conditions of contracted road assets. In Australia, PBC is already being implemented on all categories of roads: national, state, urban and rural. Australian PBC arrangement is designed to turn over control and responsibility for roadway system maintenance, rehabilitation, and capital improvement projects to private contractors. Contractors’ responsibilities include determination of treatment types, the design, programming and the undertaking of works needed to maintain road networks at predetermined performance levels. Indonesia initiated two PBC pilot projects in 2011, the Pantura Section Demak-Trengguli (7.68 kilometers) in Central Java Province and Section Ciasem-Pamanukan (18.5 kilometers) in West Java Province. Both sections are categorized as national roads. The contract duration for both of these projects is four years. To facilitate a possible way forward, it is proposed to conduct a study to understand Australia's experiences of advancing from pilot projects to nation-wide programs using PBC. The study focuses on the scope of contracts, bidding processes, risk allocation, and key drivers, using relevant PBC case studies from Australia. Recommendations for future PBC deployment nation-wide should be based on more research associated with risk allocation. This will include investigation of standard conditions of contract. Implications of the contract clauses for the risk management strategy to be adopted by contractors. Based on the nature of risks, some are best managed by the project owner. It is very important that all parties involved to be open to the new rules of contract and to convince themselves about the potential increased benefits of the use of PBC. The most recent states of challenging issues were explored and described.

Australian feature films and distribution: Industry or cottage industry?

Feature films remain critical flagships to any national film industry. Australian feature films can be highly commercial endeavours that also perform symbolic functions by embodying the national imaginary in big screen based sound and imagery. They conduct a dialogue with domestic audiences as well as showcase key aspects of Australia in the global film festival circuit. As the pre-eminent filmmaking form, feature films also serve as important launchpads for the careers of many Australian writers, directors, actors and technical crew. In the wake of over a decade of diminished share of local box office obtained by Australian feature films, Australian Feature Films and Distribution: Industry or cottage industry, examines issues in the production sector affecting the performance of Australian feature films and some responses by the central funding and support screen agency, Screen Australia.

Generating product feature hierarchy from product reviews

User generated information such as product reviews have been booming due to the advent of web 2.0. In particular, rich information associated with reviewed products has been buried in such big data. In order to facilitate identifying useful information from product (e.g., cameras) reviews, opinion mining has been proposed and widely used in recent years. In detail, as the most critical step of opinion mining, feature extraction aims to extract significant product features from review texts. However, most existing approaches only find individual features rather than identifying the hierarchical relationships between the product features. In this paper, we propose an approach which finds both features and feature relationships, structured as a feature hierarchy which is referred to as feature taxonomy in the remainder of the paper. Specifically, by making use of frequent patterns and association rules, we construct the feature taxonomy to profile the product at multiple levels instead of single level, which provides more detailed information about the product. The experiment which has been conducted based upon some real world review datasets shows that our proposed method is capable of identifying product features and relations effectively.

The 2015 IWGDF guidance documents on prevention and management of foot problems in diabetes: Development of an evidence-based global consensus

Foot problems complicating diabetes are a source of major patient suffering and societal costs. Investing in evidence-based, internationally appropriate diabetic foot care guidance is likely among the most cost-effective forms of healthcare expenditure, provided it is goal-focused and properly implemented. The International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) has been publishing and updating international Practical Guidelines since 1999. The 2015 updates are based on systematic reviews of the literature, and recommendations are formulated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development and Evaluation system. As such, we changed the name from 'Practical Guidelines' to 'Guidance'. In this article we describe the development of the 2015 IWGDF Guidance documents on prevention and management of foot problems in diabetes. This Guidance consists of five documents, prepared by five working groups of international experts. These documents provide guidance related to foot complications in persons with diabetes on: prevention; footwear and offloading; peripheral artery disease; infections; and, wound healing interventions. Based on these five documents, the IWGDF Editorial Board produced a summary guidance for daily practice. The resultant of this process, after reviewed by the Editorial Board and by international IWGDF members of all documents, is an evidence-based global consensus on prevention and management of foot problems in diabetes. Plans are already under way to implement this Guidance. We believe that following the recommendations of the 2015 IWGDF Guidance will almost certainly result in improved management of foot problems in persons with diabetes and a subsequent worldwide reduction in the tragedies caused by these foot problems.

Developing standardized methods to assess cost of healthy and unhealthy (current) diets in Australia

Unhealthy diets contribute at least 14% to Australia's disease burden and are driven by ‘obesogenic’ food environments. Compliance with dietary recommendations is particularly poor amongst disadvantaged populations including low socioeconomic groups, those living in rural/remote areas and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The perception that healthy foods are expensive is a key barrier to healthy choices and a major determinant of diet-related health inequities. Available state/regional/local data (limited and non-comparable) suggests that, despite basic healthy foods not incurring GST, the cost of healthy food is higher and has increased more rapidly than unhealthy food over the last 15 years in Australia. However, there were no nationally standardised tools or protocols to benchmark, compare or monitor food prices and affordability in Australia. Globally, we are leading work to develop and test approaches to assess the price differential of healthy and less-healthy (current) diets under the food price module of the International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases (NCDs) Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS). This presentation describes contextualization of the INFORMAS approach to develop standardised Australian tools, survey protocols and data collection and analysis systems. The ‘healthy diet basket’ was based on the Australian Foundation Diet, 1 The ‘current diet basket’ and specific items included in each basket, were based on recent national dietary survey data.2 Data collection methods were piloted. The final tools and protocols were then applied to measure the price and affordability of healthy and less healthy (current) diets of different household groups in diverse communities across the nation. We have compared results for different geographical locations/population subgroups in Australia and assessed these against international INFORMAS benchmarks. The results inform the development of policy and practice, including those relevant to mooted changes to the GST base, to promote nutrition and healthy weight and prevent chronic disease in Australia.

Family-based interventions in preventing children and adolescents from using tobacco: A systematic review and meta-analysis

- Background Tobacco is the main preventable cause of death and disease worldwide. Adolescent smoking is increasing in many countries with poorer countries following the earlier experiences of affluent countries. Preventing adolescents starting smoking is crucial to decreasing tobacco-related illness. - Objective To assess effectiveness of family-based interventions alone and combined with school-based interventions to prevent children and adolescents from initiating tobacco use. - Data Sources 14 bibliographic databases and the Internet, journals hand-searched, experts consulted. - Study Eligibility Criteria, Participants, and Interventions Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with children or adolescents and families, interventions to prevent starting tobacco use, follow-up ≥ 6 months. - Study Appraisal/Synthesis methods Abstracts/titles independently assessed and data independently entered by two authors. Risk-of-bias assessed with the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool. - Results Twenty-seven RCTs were included. Nine trials of never-smokers compared to a control provided data for meta-analysis. Family intervention trials had significantly fewer students who started smoking. Meta-analysis of twoRCTs of combined family and school interventions compared to school only, showed additional significant benefit. The common feature of effective high intensity interventions was encouraging authoritative parenting. - Limitations Only 14 RCTs provided data for meta-analysis (about 1/3 of participants). Of the 13 RCTs which did not provide data for meta-analysis eight compared a family intervention to no intervention and one found significant effects, and five compared a family + school intervention to a school intervention and none found additional significant effects. - Conclusions and Implications of Key Findings There is moderate quality evidence that family-based interventions prevent children and adolescents starting to smoke.

Open source computer-vision based guidance system for UAVs on-board decision making

The use of UAVs for remote sensing tasks; e.g. agriculture, search and rescue is increasing. The ability for UAVs to autonomously find a target and perform on-board decision making, such as descending to a new altitude or landing next to a target is a desired capability. Computer-vision functionality allows the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to follow a designated flight plan, detect an object of interest, and change its planned path. In this paper we describe a low cost and an open source system where all image processing is achieved on-board the UAV using a Raspberry Pi 2 microprocessor interfaced with a camera. The Raspberry Pi and the autopilot are physically connected through serial and communicate via MAVProxy. The Raspberry Pi continuously monitors the flight path in real time through USB camera module. The algorithm checks whether the target is captured or not. If the target is detected, the position of the object in frame is represented in Cartesian coordinates and converted into estimate GPS coordinates. In parallel, the autopilot receives the target location approximate GPS and makes a decision to guide the UAV to a new location. This system also has potential uses in the field of Precision Agriculture, plant pest detection and disease outbreaks which cause detrimental financial damage to crop yields if not detected early on. Results show the algorithm is accurate to detect 99% of object of interest and the UAV is capable of navigation and doing on-board decision making.

A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

Uncertainty based online planning for UAV target finding in cluttered and GPS-denied environments

There are some scenarios in which Unmmaned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) navigation becomes a challenge due to the occlusion of GPS systems signal, the presence of obstacles and constraints in the space in which a UAV operates. An additional challenge is presented when a target whose location is unknown must be found within a confined space. In this paper we present a UAV navigation and target finding mission, modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) using a state-of-the-art online solver in a real scenario using a low cost commercial multi rotor UAV and a modular system architecture running under the Robotic Operative System (ROS). Using POMDP has several advantages to conventional approaches as they take into account uncertainties in sensor information. We present a framework for testing the mission with simulation tests and real flight tests in which we model the system dynamics and motion and perception uncertainties. The system uses a quad-copter aircraft with an board downwards looking camera without the need of GPS systems while avoiding obstacles within a confined area. Results indicate that the system has 100% success rate in simulation and 80% rate during flight test for finding targets located at different locations.

High-performance graphene-based supercapacitors made by a scalable blade-coating approach

Graphene oxide (GO) sheets can form liquid crystals (LCs) in their aqueous dispersions that are more viscous with a stronger LC feature. In this work we combine the viscous LC-GO solution with the blade-coating technique to make GO films, for constructing graphene-based supercapacitors in a scalable way. Reduced GO (rGO) films are prepared by wet chemical methods, using either hydrazine (HZ) or hydroiodic acid (HI). Solid-state supercapacitors with rGO films as electrodes and highly conductive carbon nanotube films as current collectors are fabricated and the capacitive properties of different rGO films are compared. It is found that the HZ-rGO film is superior to the HI-rGO film in achieving high capacitance, owing to the 3D structure of graphene sheets in the electrode. Compared to gelled electrolyte, the use of liquid electrolyte (H2SO4) can further increase the capacitance to 265 F per gram (corresponding to 52 mF per cm2) of the HZ-rGO film.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.