Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Structural quality indicators to support quality of care for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments

Objectives The purpose of this study was to identify the structural quality of care domains and to establish a set of structural quality indicators (SQIs) for the assessment of care of older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments (EDs). Methods A structured approach to SQI development was undertaken including: 1) a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and gray literature focusing on identification of evidence-based interventions targeting structure of care of older patients with cognitive impairment and existing SQIs; 2) a consultative process engaging experts in the care of older people and epidemiologic methods (i.e., advisory panel) leading to development of a draft set of SQIs; 3) field testing of drafted SQIs in eight EDs, leading to refinement of the SQI set, and; 4) an independent voting process among the panelists for SQI inclusion in a final set, using preestablished inclusion and exclusion criteria. Results At the conclusion of the process, five SQIs targeting the management of older ED patients with cognitive impairment were developed: 1) the ED has a policy outlining the management of older people with cognitive impairment during the ED episode of care; 2) the ED has a policy outlining issues relevant to carers of older people with cognitive impairment, encompassing the need to include the (family) carer in the ED episode of care; 3) the ED has a policy outlining the assessment and management of behavioral symptoms, with specific reference to older people with cognitive impairment; 4) the ED has a policy outlining delirium prevention strategies, including the assessment of patients' delirium risk factors, and; 5) the ED has a policy outlining pain assessment and management for older people with cognitive impairment. Conclusions This article presents a set of SQIs for the evaluation of performance in caring for older people with cognitive impairment in EDs.

Enhanced student learning in accounting utilising web-based technology, peer-review feedback and reflective practices: A learning community approach to assessment

Higher education is becoming a major driver of economic competitiveness in an increasingly knowledge-driven global economy. Maintaining the competitive edge has seen an increase in public accountability of higher education institutions through the mechanism of ranking universities based on the quality of their teaching and learning outcomes. As a result, assessment processes are under scrutiny, creating tensions between standardisation and measurability and the development of creative and reflective learners. These tensions are further highlighted in the context of large undergraduate subjects, learner diversity and time-poor academics and students. Research suggests that high level and complex learning is best developed when assessment, combined with effective feedback practices, involves students as partners in these processes. This article reports on a four-phase, cross-institution and cross-discipline project designed to embed peer-review processes as part of the assessment in two large, undergraduate accounting classes. Using a social constructivist view of learning, which emphasises the role of both teacher and learner in the development of complex cognitive understandings, we undertook an iterative process of peer review. Successive phases built upon students’ feedback and achievements and input from language/learning and curriculum experts to improve the teaching and learning outcomes.

Adaptive nature of coordinated road traffic injury prevention responses in some OECD countries

This study examines the context of coordinated responses, triggers for coordinated responses, and preference for or choice of coordinating strategies in road traffic injury prevention at a local level in some OECD countries. This aim is achieved through a mixed-methodology. In this respect, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with road traffic injury prevention experts from five OECD countries. In addition, 31 professional road traffic injury prevention stakeholders from seven OECD nations completed a self-administered, online survey. It found that there was resource limitation and inter-dependence across actors within the context of road traffic injury prevention at a local level. Furthermore, this study unveiled the realization of resource-dependency as a trigger for coordinated responses at a local level. Moreover, the present examination has revealed two coordinating strategies favored by experts in road traffic injury prevention – i.e. self-organizing community groups, which are deemed to have a platform to deliver programs within communities, and the funding of community groups to forge partnerships. However, the present study did not appear to endorse other strategies such as the formalization of coordinated responses or a legal mandate to coordinate responses. In essence, this study appears to suggest a need to manage coordinated responses from an adaptive perspective with interactions across road traffic injury prevention programs being forged on a mutual understanding of inter-dependency arising out of resource scarcity. In fact, the role of legislation and top-down national models in local level management of coordinated responses is likely to be one of identifying opportunities to interact with self-organized community groups and fund partnership-based road traffic injury prevention events.

2nd International Workshop on Secure and Privacy-Aware Information Management in eHealth

Information security and privacy in the healthcare domain is a complex and challenging problem for computer scientists, social scientists, law experts and policy makers. Appropriate healthcare provision requires specialized knowledge, is information intensive and much patient information is of a particularly sensitive nature. Electronic health record systems provide opportunities for information sharing which may enhance healthcare services, for both individuals and populations. However, appropriate information management measures are essential for privacy preservation...

4.2.5 Environmental engineering

Th is landmark report on engineering and development is the fi rst of its kind to be produced by UNESCO, or indeed by any international organization. Containing highly informative and insightful contributions from 120 experts from all over the world, the report gives a new perspective on the very great importance of the engineer’s role in development. Advances in engineering have been central to human progress ever since the invention of the wheel. In the past hundred and fi fty years in particular, engineering and technology have transformed the world we live in, contributing to signifi cantly longer life expectancy and enhanced quality of life for large numbers of the world’s population. Yet improved healthcare, housing, nutrition, transport, communications, and the many other benefi ts engineering brings are distributed unevenly throughout the world. Millions of people do not have clean drinking water and proper sanitation, they do not have access to a medical centre, they may travel many miles on foot along unmade tracks every day to get to work or school...

Working the story : News curation in social media as a second save of citizen journalism

For the first decade of its existence, the concept of citizen journalism has described an approach which was seen as a broadening of the participant base in journalistic processes, but still involved only a comparatively small subset of overall society – for the most part, citizen journalists were news enthusiasts and “political junkies” (Coleman, 2006) who, as some exasperated professional journalists put it, “wouldn’t get a job at a real newspaper” (The Australian, 2007), but nonetheless followed many of the same journalistic principles. The investment – if not of money, then at least of time and effort – involved in setting up a blog or participating in a citizen journalism Website remained substantial enough to prevent the majority of Internet users from engaging in citizen journalist activities to any significant extent; what emerged in the form of news blogs and citizen journalism sites was a new online elite which for some time challenged the hegemony of the existing journalistic elite, but gradually also merged with it. The mass adoption of next-generation social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter, however, has led to the emergence of a new wave of quasi-journalistic user activities which now much more closely resemble the “random acts of journalism” which JD Lasica envisaged in 2003. Social media are not exclusively or even predominantly used for citizen journalism; instead, citizen journalism is now simply a by-product of user communities engaging in exchanges about the topics which interest them, or tracking emerging stories and events as they happen. Such platforms – and especially Twitter with its system of ad hoc hashtags that enable the rapid exchange of information about issues of interest – provide spaces for users to come together to “work the story” through a process of collaborative gatewatching (Bruns, 2005), content curation, and information evaluation which takes place in real time and brings together everyday users, domain experts, journalists, and potentially even the subjects of the story themselves. Compared to the spaces of news blogs and citizen journalism sites, but also of conventional online news Websites, which are controlled by their respective operators and inherently position user engagement as a secondary activity to content publication, these social media spaces are centred around user interaction, providing a third-party space in which everyday as well as institutional users, laypeople as well as experts converge without being able to control the exchange. Drawing on a number of recent examples, this article will argue that this results in a new dynamic of interaction and enables the emergence of a more broadly-based, decentralised, second wave of citizen engagement in journalistic processes.

IdeaWall: Mixed mode distributed collaboration in enterprise environments

In early stages of design and modeling, computers and computer applications are often considered an obstacle, rather than a facilitator of the process. Most notably, brainstorms, process modeling with business experts, or development planning, are often performed by a team in front of a whiteboard. While "whiteboarding" is recognized as an effective tool, low-tech solutions that allow remote participants to contribute are still not generally available. This is a striking observation, considering that vast majority of teams in large organizations are distributed teams. And this has also been one of the key triggers behind the project described in this article, where a team of corporate researchers decided to identify state of the art technologies that could facilitate the scenario mentioned above. This paper is an account of a research project in the area of enterprise collaboration, with a strong focus on the aspects of human computer interaction in mixed mode environments, especially in areas of collaboration where computers still play a secondary role. It is describing a currently running corporate research project. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Unpacking director financial literacy

The social and economic effects of high profile governance scandals such as the National Safety Council, HIH and Centro have triggered much debate, reform and research into predicting and preventing future failures. While this has meant director financial literacy is now recognised as a core capability required of each individual director, there has been little guidance on what this capability involves other than the very general statement of being able to 'read and understand financial statements'. This thesis presents the results of a Delphi study aimed at identifying the core concepts a director needs to master to be financially literate. Thirty-five experts drawn from accounting, education and practice agreed that to be financially literate a director must have a conceptual understanding of 24 basic accounting concepts and be able to independently apply this understanding to a strategic evaluation of the finances of the organisation they serve.

Mandatory Reporting Laws and the Identification of Severe Child Abuse and Neglect

This book provides the first comprehensive international coverage of key issues in mandatory reporting of child abuse and neglect. The book draws on a collection of the foremost scholars in the field, as well as clinicians and practice-based experts, to explore the nature, history, impact and justifiability of mandatory reporting laws, their optimal form, legal and conceptual issues, and practical issues and challenges for reporters, professional educators and governments. Key issues in non-Western nations are also explored briefly to assess the potential of socio-legal responses sex trafficking, forced child labour and child marriage. The book is of particular value to policy makers, educators and opinion leaders in government departments dealing with children, and to professionals and organisations who work with children. It is also intended to be a key authority for researchers and teachers in the fields of medicine, nursing, social work, education, law, psychology, health and allied health fields.

Perceived quality of e‐health services: A conceptual scale development of e‐health service quality based on the C‐OAR‐SE approach

Purpose Health service quality is an important determinant for health service satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate requirements of e‐health services and to develop a measurement model to analyze the construct of “perceived e‐health service quality.” Design/methodology/approach The paper adapts the C‐OAR‐SE procedure for scale development by Rossiter. The focal aspect is the “physician‐patient relationship” which forms the core dyad in the healthcare service provision. Several in‐depth interviews were conducted in Switzerland; first with six patients (as raters), followed by two experts of the healthcare system (as judges). Based on the results and an extensive literature research, the classification of object and attributes is developed for this model. Findings The construct e‐health service quality can be described as an abstract formative object and is operationalized with 13 items: accessibility, competence, information, usability/user friendliness, security, system integration, trust, individualization, empathy, ethical conduct, degree of performance, reliability, and ability to respond. Research limitations/implications Limitations include the number of interviews with patients and experts as well as critical issues associated with C‐OAR‐SE. More empirical research is needed to confirm the quality indicators of e‐health services. Practical implications Health care providers can utilize the results for the evaluation of their service quality. Practitioners can use the hierarchical structure to measure service quality at different levels. The model provides a diagnostic tool to identify poor and/or excellent performance with regard to the e‐service delivery. Originality/value The paper contributes to knowledge with regard to the measurement of e‐health quality and improves the understanding of how customers evaluate the quality of e‐health services.

Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes

Invasive non-native plants have negatively impacted on biodiversity and ecosystem functions world-wide. Because of the large number of species, their wide distributions and varying degrees of impact, we need a more effective method for prioritizing control strategies for cost-effective investment across heterogeneous landscapes. Here, we develop a prioritization framework that synthesizes scientific data, elicits knowledge from experts and stakeholders to identify control strategies, and appraises the cost-effectiveness of strategies. Our objective was to identify the most cost-effective strategies for reducing the total area dominated by high-impact non-native plants in the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). We use a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin that comprises some of the most distinctive Australian landscapes, including Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park. More than 240 non-native plant species are recorded in the Lake Eyre Basin, with many predicted to spread, but there are insufficient resources to control all species. Lake Eyre Basin experts identified 12 strategies to control, contain or eradicate non-native species over the next 50 years. The total cost of the proposed Lake Eyre Basin strategies was estimated at AU$1·7 billion, an average of AU$34 million annually. Implementation of these strategies is estimated to reduce non-native plant dominance by 17 million ha – there would be a 32% reduction in the likely area dominated by non-native plants within 50 years if these strategies were implemented. The three most cost-effective strategies were controlling Parkinsonia aculeata, Ziziphus mauritiana and Prosopis spp. These three strategies combined were estimated to cost only 0·01% of total cost of all the strategies, but would provide 20% of the total benefits. Over 50 years, cost-effective spending of AU$2·3 million could eradicate all non-native plant species from the only threatened ecological community within the Lake Eyre Basin, the Great Artesian Basin discharge springs. Synthesis and applications. Our framework, based on a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, provides a rationale for financially efficient investment in non-native plant management and reveals combinations of strategies that are optimal for different budgets. It also highlights knowledge gaps and incidental findings that could improve effective management of non-native plants, for example addressing the reliability of species distribution data and prevalence of information sharing across states and regions.

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.

Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults

Background Recovery strategies are often usedwith the intention of preventing orminimisingmuscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. Objectives To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts. The searches were run in August 2015. Selection criteria We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity.We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Main results Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64 physically active predominantly young adults (mean age 23 years). All but four participants were male. Two trials were parallel group trials (44 participants) and two were cross-over trials (20 participants). The trials were heterogeneous, including the type, temperature, duration and frequency of WBC, and the type of preceding exercise. None of the trials reported active surveillance of predefined adverse events. All four trials had design features that carried a high risk of bias, potentially limiting the reliability of their findings. The evidence for all outcomes was classified as ’very low’ quality based on the GRADE criteria. Two comparisons were tested: WBC versus control (rest or no WBC), tested in four studies; and WBC versus far-infrared therapy, also tested in one study. No studies compared WBC with other active interventions, such as cold water immersion, or different types and applications of WBC. All four trials compared WBC with rest or no WBC. There was very low quality evidence for lower self-reported muscle soreness (pain at rest) scores after WBC at 1 hour (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.42 to -0.12; 20 participants, 2 cross-over trials); 24 hours (SMD -0.57, 95%CI -1.48 to 0.33) and 48 hours (SMD -0.58, 95% CI -1.37 to 0.21), both with 38 participants, 2 cross-over studies, 1 parallel group study; and 72 hours (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -2.54 to 1.24; 29 participants, 1 cross-over study, 1 parallel group study). Of note is that the 95% CIs also included either no between-group differences or a benefit in favour of the control group. One small cross-over trial (9 participants) found no difference in tiredness but better well-being after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. One small cross-over trial involving nine well-trained runners provided very low quality evidence of lower levels of muscle soreness after WBC, when compared with infrared therapy, at 1 hour follow-up, but not at 24 or 48 hours. The same trial found no difference in well-being but less tiredness after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. Authors’ conclusions There is insufficient evidence to determine whether whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) reduces self-reportedmuscle soreness, or improves subjective recovery, after exercise compared with passive rest or no WBC in physically active young adult males. There is no evidence on the use of this intervention in females or elite athletes. The lack of evidence on adverse events is important given that the exposure to extreme temperature presents a potential hazard. Further high-quality, well-reported research in this area is required and must provide detailed reporting of adverse events.

Identifying opportunity spaces for design research in South America: Working with grassroots and community groups

As design research continues to gain momentum in South America, design researchers and practitioners in the region have begun to consider how to the field may address regionally-specific issues, including on-going political struggles. By bringing approaches such as Participatory Design and Adversarial Design that consider political aspects of design, local researchers have explored various forms that these two approaches could take that are tailored to the needs and values of different communities across the region. This paper focuses on identifying opportunities for developing design research projects in community-based and grassroots-oriented contexts. The paper presents the findings of our study about the understanding and experience of design researchers and experts who have been working closely with community groups and grassroots organisations in South America. Five themes emerged, highlighting opportunities and challenges related to positioning contemporary design research in the region, integration of adversarial perspectives into design processes, leveraging local obstacles through creativity, and the potential of building capacity within community groups and grassroots organisations for sustainability and autonomy.