Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a prospective study

Aim To identify relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and leg ulcer recurrence in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers. Background Chronic venous leg ulcers are slow to heal and frequently recur, resulting in years of suffering and intensive use of health care resources. Methods A prospective longitudinal study was undertaken with a sample of 80 patients with a venous leg ulcer recruited when their ulcer healed. Data were collected from 2006–2009 from medical records on demographics, medical history and ulcer history; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, preventive activities and psychosocial measures. Follow-up data were collected via questionnaires every three months for 12 months after healing. Median time to recurrence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders and determine effects of preventive strategies and psychosocial factors on recurrence. Results: There were 35 recurrences in a sample of 80 participants. Median time to recurrence was 27 weeks. After adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazards regression model found that at least an hour/day of leg elevation, six or more days/week in Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, higher social support scale scores and higher General Self-Efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with a lower risk of recurrence, while male gender and a history of DVT remained significant risk factors for recurrence. Conclusion Results indicate that leg elevation, compression hosiery, high levels of self-efficacy and strong social support will help prevent recurrence.

Remote monitoring of outdoor performance of low scale dye sensitized solar cells for nanosensors nodes

This is the first outdoor test of small-scale dye sensitized solar cells (DSC) powering a standalone nanosensor node. A solar cell test station (SCTS) has been developed using standard DSC to power a gas nanosensor, a radio transmitter, and the control electronics (CE) for battery charging. The station is remotely monitored through wired (Ethernet cable) or wireless connection (radio transmitter) in order to evaluate in real time the performance of the solar cells powering a nanosensor and a transmitter under different weather conditions. We analyze trends of energy conversion efficiency after 60 days of operation. The 408 cm2 active surface module produces enough energy to power a gas nanosensor and a radio transmitter during the day and part of the night. Also, by using a variable programmable load we keep the system working on the maximum power point (MPP) quantifying the total energy generated and stored in a battery. Although this technology is at an early stage of development, these experiments provide useful data for future outdoor applications such as nanosensor network nodes.

Resourcing resilience through recreational music programs

Many music programs in Australia deliver a United States (US) package created by the Recreational Music-Making Movement, founded by Karl Bruhn and Barry Bittman. This quasi-formal group of music makers, academics and practitioners uses the logic of decentralised global networks to connect with local musicians, offering them benefits associated with their ‘Recreational Music Program’ (RMP). These RMPs encapsulate the broad goals of the movement, developed in the US during the 1980s, and now available as a package, endorsed by the National Association of Music Merchants (NAMM), for music retailers and community organisations to deliver locally (Bittman et al., 2003). High participation rates in RMPs have been historically documented amongst baby boomers with disposable income. Yet the Australian programs increasingly target marginalised groups and associated funding sources, which in turn has lowered the costs of participation. This chapter documents how Australian manifestations of RMPs presently report on the benefits of participation to attract cross-sector funding. It seeks to show the diversity of participants who claim to have developed and accessed resources that improve their capacity for resilience through recreational music performance events. We identify funding issues pertaining to partnerships between local agencies and state governments that have begun to commission such music programs. Our assessment of eight Australian RMPs includes all additional music groups implemented since the first program, their purposes and costs, the skills and coping strategies that participants developed, how organisers have reported on resources, outcomes and attracted funding. We represent these features through a summary table, standard descriptive statistics and commentaries from participants and organisers.

From the bottom-up : redesigning the international legal response to anthropogenic climate change

The design of the Kyoto Protocol renders it incapable of effectively responding to the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, this article explores the opportunity to construct a new, principled legal approach to respond to climate change that is premised on nationally derived legal responses. To do so, this article considers the theoretical foundation of the international legal response to climate change – Hardin's "The Tragedy of the Commons‟ – and the systemic design faults of the Kyoto Protocol. This article also suggests four principles – a judicious mix of legal instruments, flexibility, intrinsic legal coherence, and quantifiable and achievable targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas intensity – that are necessary to guide the creation of a nationally derived legal response to climate change. This approach is intended to provide the catalyst for new bilateral and multilateral arrangements that can, with the passing of time, generate sufficient momentum to drive the creation of a new and effective cooperative international legal framework to mitigate anthropogenic climate change.

Carbon financing and the Australian emissions trading scheme : less emissions, more opportunities?

The introduction by the Australian federal government of its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme was a decisive step in the transformation of Australia into a low carbon economy. Since the release of the Scheme, however, political discourse relating to environmental sustainability and climate change in Australia has focused primarily on political, scientific and economic issues. Insufficient attention has been paid to the financial opportunities which commoditisation of the carbon market may offer, and little emphasis has been placed on the legal implications for the creation of a "new" asset and market. This article seeks to shed some light on the discernable opportunities which the Scheme should provide to participants in the Australian and international debt markets.

Policy into practice : adoption of hazard mitigation measures by local government in Queensland : a collaborative research project between Queensland University of Technology and Emergency Management Queensland in association with Local Government of Queensland Disaster Management Alliance

The focus of the present research was to investigate how Local Governments in Queensland were progressing with the adoption of delineated DM policies and supporting guidelines. The study consulted Local Government representatives and hence, the results reflect their views on these issues. Is adoption occurring? To what degree? Are policies and guidelines being effectively implemented so that the objective of a safer, more resilient community is being achieved? If not, what are the current barriers to achieving this, and can recommendations be made to overcome these barriers? These questions defined the basis on which the present study was designed and the survey tools developed. While it was recognised that LGAQ and Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) may have differing views on some reported issues, it was beyond the scope of the present study to canvass those views. The study resolved to document and analyse these questions under the broad themes of: • Building community capacity (notably via community awareness). • Council operationalisation of DM. • Regional partnerships (in mitigation/adaptation). Data was collected via a survey tool comprising two components: • An online questionnaire survey distributed via the LGAQ Disaster Management Alliance (hereafter referred to as the “Alliance”) to DM sections of all Queensland Local Government Councils; and • a series of focus groups with selected Queensland Councils

Effect of biochar amendment on the soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases from an intensive subtropical pasture in northern New South Wales, Australia

We assessed the effect of biochar incorporation into the soil on the soil-atmosphere exchange of the greenhouse gases (GHG) from an intensive subtropical pasture. For this, we measured N2O, CH4 and CO2 emissions with high temporal resolution from April to June 2009 in an existing factorial experiment where cattle feedlot biochar had been applied at 10 t ha-1 in November 2006. Over the whole measurement period, significant emissions of N2O and CO2 were observed, whereas a net uptake of CH4 was measured. N2O emissions were found to be highly episodic with one major emission pulse (up to 502 µg N2O-N m-2 h 1) following heavy rainfall. There was no significant difference in the net flux of GHGs from the biochar amended vs. the control plots. Our results demonstrate that intensively managed subtropical pastures on ferrosols in northern New South Wales of Australia can be a significant source of GHG. Our hypothesis that the application of biochar would lead to a reduction in emissions of GHG from soils was not supported in this field assessment. Additional studies with longer observation periods are needed to clarify the long term effect of biochar amendment on soil microbial processes and the emission of GHGs under field conditions.

Sustainable reuse of storm/waste-water resources : a review on solar photocatalytic purification processes

In recent years, there has been a significant amount of research and development in the area of solar photocatalysis. This paper reviews and summarizes the mechanism of photocatalytic oxidation process, types of photocatalyst, and the factors influencing the photoreactor efficiency and the most recent findings related to solar detoxification and disinfection of water contaminants. Various solar reactors for photocatlytic water purification are also briefly described. The future potential of solar photocatlysis for storm water treatment and reuse is also discussed to ensure sustainable use of solar energy and storm water resources.

Remote monitoring of outdoor performance of low scale dye sensitized solar cells for nanosensors nodes

This is the first outdoor test of small-scale dye sensitized solar cells (DSC) powering a stand-alone nanosensor node. A solar cell test station (SCTS) has been developed using standard DSC to power a gas nanosensor, a radio transmitter, and the control electronics (CE) for battery charging. The station is remotely monitored through wired (Ethernet cable) or wireless connection (radio transmitter) in order to evaluate in real time the performance of the solar cells and devices under different weather conditions. The 408 cm2 active surface module produces enough energy to power a gas nanosensor and a radio transmitter during the day and part of the night. Also, by using a programmable load we keep the system working on the maximum power point (MPP) quantifying the total energy generated and stored in a battery. These experiments provide useful data for future outdoor applications such as nanosensor networks.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Influence of biochars on flux of N2O and CO2 from Ferrosol

Biochars produced by slow pyrolysis of greenwaste (GW), poultry litter (PL), papermill waste (PS), and biosolids (BS) were shown to reduce N₂O emissions from an acidic Ferrosol. Similar reductions were observed for the untreated GW feedstock. Soil was amended with biochar or feedstock giving application rates of 1 and 5%. Following an initial incubation, nitrogen (N) was added at 165 kg/ha as urea. Microcosms were again incubated before being brought to 100% water-filled porosity and held at this water content for a further 47 days. The flooding phase accounted for the majority (<80%) of total N₂O emissions. The control soil released 3165 mg N₂O-N/m², or 15.1% of the available N as N₂O. Amendment with 1 and 5% GW feedstock significantly reduced emissions to 1470 and 636 mg N₂O-N/m², respectively. This was equivalent to 8.6 and 3.8% of applied N. The GW biochar produced at 350°C was least effective in reducing emissions, resulting in 1625 and 1705 mg N₂O-N/m² for 1 and 5% amendments. Amendment with BS biochar at 5% had the greatest impact, reducing emissions to 518 mg N₂O-N/m², or 2.2% of the applied N over the incubation period. Metabolic activity as measured by CO₂ production could not explain the differences in N₂O emissions between controls and amendments, nor could NH₄⁺ or NO₃^– concentrations in biochar-amended soils. A decrease in NH₄⁺ and NO₃^– following GW feedstock application is likely to have been responsible for reducing N₂O emissions from this amendment. Reduction in N₂O emissions from the biochar-amended soils was attributed to increased adsorption of NO₃^–. Small reductions are possible due to improved aeration and porosity leading to lower levels of denitrification and N₂O emissions. Alternatively, increased pH was observed, which can drive denitrification through to dinitrogen during soil flooding.