Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Slithering snakes, angry men and out-group members : what and whom are we evolved to fear?

The preparedness theory of classical conditioning proposed by Seligman (1970, 1971) has been applied extensively over the past 40 years to explain the nature and "source" of human fear and phobias. In this review we examine the formative studies that tested the four defining characteristics of prepared learning with animal fear-relevant stimuli (typically snakes and spiders) and consider claims that fear of social stimuli, such as angry faces, or faces of racial out-group members, may also be acquired utilising the same preferential learning mechanism. Exposition of critical differences between fear learning to animal and social stimuli suggests that a single account cannot adequately explain fear learning with animal and social stimuli. We demonstrate that fear conditioned to social stimuli is less robust than fear conditioned to animal stimuli as it is susceptible to cognitive influence and propose that it may instead reflect on negative stereotypes and social norms. Thus, a theoretical model that can accommodate the influence of both biological and cultural factors is likely to have broader utility in the explanation of fear and avoidance responses than accounts based on a single mechanism.

(Re)visioning the centre : education reform and the “ideal” citizen of the future

Discourses of public education reform, like that exemplified within the Queensland Government’s future vision document, Queensland State Education-2010 (QSE-2010), position schooling as a panacea to pervasive social instability and a means to achieve a new consensus. However, in unravelling the many conflicting statements that conjoin to form education policy and inform related literature (Ball, 1993), it becomes clear that education reform discourse is polyvalent (Foucault, 1977). Alongside visionary statements that speak of public education as a vehicle for social justice are the (re)visionary or those reflecting neoliberal individualism and a conservative politics. In this paper, it is argued that the latter coagulate to form strategic discursive practices which work to (re)secure dominant relations of power. Further, discussion of the characteristics needed by the “ideal” future citizen of Queensland reflect efforts to ‘tame change through the making of the child’ (Popkewitz, 2004, p.201). The casualties of this (re)vision and the refusal to investigate the pathologies of “traditional” schooling are the children who, for whatever reason, do not conform to the norm of the desired school child as an “ideal” citizen-in-the-making and who become relegated to alternative educational settings.

Cultural influences on strategic communication

This chapter explores a cultural perspective on the development of strategic communication. It identifies cultural influences on organizational knowledge structures and the work of cultural schema on organizational processes of environmental interpretation. It describes the implications of the structures and processes for strategic communication. The chapter documents that strategic communication may reflect outcomes of cultural selection acting in the knowledge system of an organization as much as it reflects empirical imperatives of the external social environment.

Service condition of railroad corridors around the insulated rail joints

Railroad corridors contain large number of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) that act as safety critical elements in the circuitries of the signaling and broken rail identification systems. IRJs are regarded as sources of excitation for the passage of loaded wheels leading to high impact forces; these forces in turn cause dips, cross levels and twists to the railroad geometry in close proximity to the sections containing the IRJs in addition to the local damages to the railhead of the IRJs. Therefore, a systematic monitoring of the IRJs in railroad is prudent to mitigate potential risk of their sudden failure (e.g., broken tie plates) under the traffic. This paper presents a simple method of periodic recording of images using time-lapse photography and total station surveying measurements to understand the ongoing deterioration of the IRJs and their surroundings. Over a 500 day period, data were collected to examine the trends in narrowing of the joint gap due to plastic deformation the railhead edges and the dips, cross levels and twists caused to the railroad geometry due to the settlement of ties (sleepers) around the IRJs. The results reflect that the average progressive settlement beneath the IRJs is larger than that under the continuously welded rail, which leads to excessive deviation of railroad profile, cross levels and twists.

Learning beyond books : strategies for ambient media to improve libraries and collaboration spaces as interfaces for social learning

With the advent of digital media and online information resources, public libraries as physical destinations for information access are being increasingly challenged. As a response, many libraries follow the trend of removing bookshelves in order to provide more floorspace for social interaction and collaboration. Such spaces follow a Commons 2.0 model: they are designed to support collaborative work and social learning. The acquisition of skills and knowledge is facilitated as a result of being surrounded by and interacting with a community of likeminded others. Based on the results of a case study on a Commons 2.0 library space, this paper describes several issues of collaboration and social learning in public library settings. Acknowledging the significance of the architectural characteristics of the physical space, we discuss opportunities for ambient media to better reflect the social attributes of the library as a place; i.e. amplify the sense of other co-present library visitors and provide opportunities for shared encounters and conversations, which would remain invisible otherwise. We present the design of a user check-in system for improving the library as a physical destination for social learning, sharing, and inspiration for and by the community.

Looking back and looking forward : exploring distributed leadership with Queensland Prep teachers

There is an increasing expectation that early childhood teachers will be pedagogical leaders, particularly in a global context of curriculum reform. This paper reports on the distributed leadership experiences of early childhood teachers’ during the 2003 Preparatory Year (Prep) trial in Queensland, Australia. In 2010, 13 of the first Prep teachers participated in interviews to discuss their definitions of leadership and reflect on the opportunities they had to lead curriculum development during and since the 2003 trial. Data were examined using a conceptual framework based on the work of Woods et al. (2004), with a focus on the structural and agential aspects of distributed leadership. Participants identified a range of contextual influences, challenges, skills and enabling strategies that illustrate the complexities in leading curriculum.

Establishing virtual production as a research and teaching activity at QUT

Located within the Creative Industries Faculty, the Animation team at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) recently acquired a full-body inertial motion capture system. Our research to date has been predominantly concerned with interdisciplinary practice and the benefits this could bring to undergraduate teaching. From early experimental tests it was identified that there was a need to develop a framework for best practice and an efficient production workflow to ensure the system was being used to its full potential. Through our ongoing investigation we have identified at least three areas that stand to have long-term benefits from universities engaging in motion capture related research activity. This includes interdisciplinary collaborative research, undergraduate teaching and improved production processes. The following paper reports the early stages of our research, which explores the use of a full-body inertial motion capture (MoCap) solution in collaboration with performing artists.

Taxonomic revision of Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces

The three genera of smut fungi, Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces, form a complex that has eluded resolution by morphology (Langdon & Fullerton 1975, Vánky 1991, Piepenbring et al. 1998) and molecular phylogenetic analysis (Stoll et al. 2003, 2005). Two suggestions to reconcile the taxonomy of the complex have been proposed. The first was to break up the current taxa into several smaller genera and subgenera, and the second to unify the three genera into a single genus, Ustilago (Vánky 2002, Piepenbring 2004). The former solution is dependent on finding morphological synapomorphies that can delimit the genera, and the latter solution dismisses the wide morphological diversity within the group (McTaggart et al. 2012b). Synapomorphic morphological characters and host plant classification delimited clades in the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex (McTaggart et al. 2012a). The current study defines these synapomorphic characters and proposes a new classification for many species currently placed in Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces. This approach preserves the well-known genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces, and enables the classification to reflect morphological diversity in the complex.

Methodological challenges in conducting a systematic review of community wide interventions to increase physical activity

Introduction: Evaluating the effectiveness of interventions designed to increase the physical activity in communities is often a difficult and complex task, requiring considerable expertise and investment, and often constrained by methodological limitations. These limitations, in turn, create additional challenges when these studies are used in systematic reviews as they hinder the confidence, precision and interpretation of results. The objective of this paper is to summarise the methodological challenges posed in conducting a systematic review of community-wide physical activity interventions to help inform those conducting future primary research and systematic reviews. Methods: We conducted a Cochrane systematic review of community-wide interventions to increase physical activity. We assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We will investigate these in greater detail, particularly in relation to the potential impact on measures of effect, confidence in results, generalizability of results and general interpretation. Results: The systematic review was conducted and has been published in the Cochrane Library. A logic model was helpful in defining and interpreting the studies. Many studies of unsuitable study design were excluded; however several important methodological limitations of the primary studies evaluating community-wide physical activity interventions emerged. These included: - the failure to use validated tools to measure physical activity; - issues associated with pre and post test designs; - inadequate sampling of populations; - poor control groups; and - intervention and measurement protocols of inadequate duration. Although it is challenging to undertake rigorous evaluations of complex interventions, these issues result in significant uncertainty over the effectiveness of these interventions, and the possible factors required for a community-wide intervention to be successful. In particular, the combination of several of these limitations (e.g. un-validated tools, inadequate sampling, and short duration) is that studies may lack the sensitivity to detect any meaningful change. Multiple publications of findings for the same study also made interpretation difficult; however, interventions with parallel qualitative publications were helpful. Discussion: Evaluating community wide interventions to increase physical activity in a rigorous way is incredibly challenging. These findings reflect these challenges but have important ramifications for researchers conducting primary studies to determine the efficacy of such interventions, as well as for researchers conducting systematic reviews. This new review shows that the inadequacies of design and evaluation are continuing. It is hoped that the adoption of such suggestions may aid in the development of systematic reviews, but more importantly, in enabling translation of such findings into policy and practice.

Approaches to designing for older adults' intuitive interaction with complex devices

Many older people have difficulties using modern consumer products due to increased product complexity both in terms of functionality and interface design. Previous research has shown that older people have more difficulty in using complex devices intuitively when compared to the younger. Furthermore, increased life expectancy and a falling birth rate have been catalysts for changes in world demographics over the past two decades. This trend also suggests a proportional increase of older people in the work-force. This realisation has led to research on the effective use of technology by older populations in an effort to engage them more productively and to assist them in leading independent lives. Ironically, not enough attention has been paid to the development of interaction design strategies that would actually enable older users to better exploit new technologies. Previous research suggests that if products are designed to reflect people's prior knowledge, they will appear intuitive to use. Since intuitive interfaces utilise domain-specific prior knowledge of users, they require minimal learning for effective interaction. However, older people are very diverse in their capabilities and domain-specific prior knowledge. In addition, ageing also slows down the process of acquiring new knowledge. Keeping these suggestions and limitations in view, the aim of this study was set to investigate possible approaches to developing interfaces that facilitate their intuitive use by older people. In this quest to develop intuitive interfaces for older people, two experiments were conducted that systematically investigated redundancy (the use of both text and icons) in interface design, complexity of interface structure (nested versus flat), and personal user factors such as cognitive abilities, perceived self-efficacy and technology anxiety. All of these factors could interfere with intuitive use. The results from the first experiment suggest that, contrary to what was hypothesised, older people (65+ years) completed the tasks on the text only based interface design faster than on the redundant interface design. The outcome of the second experiment showed that, as expected, older people took more time on a nested interface. However, they did not make significantly more errors compared with younger age groups. Contrary to what was expected, older age groups also did better under anxious conditions. The findings of this study also suggest that older age groups are more heterogeneous in their capabilities and their intuitive use of contemporary technological devices is mediated more by domain-specific technology prior knowledge and by their cognitive abilities, than chronological age. This makes it extremely difficult to develop product interfaces that are entirely intuitive to use. However, by keeping in view the cognitive limitations of older people when interfaces are developed, and using simple text-based interfaces with flat interface structure, would help them intuitively learn and use complex technological products successfully during early encounter with a product. These findings indicate that it might be more pragmatic if interfaces are designed for intuitive learning rather than for intuitive use. Based on this research and the existing literature, a model for adaptable interface design as a strategy for developing intuitively learnable product interfaces was proposed. An adaptable interface can initially use a simple text only interface to help older users to learn and successfully use the new system. Over time, this can be progressively changed to a symbols-based nested interface for more efficient and intuitive use.

The probability archive : from essence to uncertainty in the mediation of knowledge

This volume puts together the works of a group of distinguished scholars and active researchers in the field of media and communication studies to reflect upon the past, present, and future of new media research. The chapters examine the implications of new media technologies on everyday life, existing social institutions, and the society at large at various levels of analysis. Macro-level analyses of changing techno-social formation – such as discussions of the rise of surveillance society and the "fifth estate" – are combined with studies on concrete and specific new media phenomena, such as the rise of Pro-Am collaboration and "fan labor" online. In the process, prominent concepts in the field of new media studies, such as social capital, displacement, and convergence, are critically examined, while new theoretical perspectives are proposed and explicated. Reflecting the inter-disciplinary nature of the field of new media studies and communication research in general, the chapters interrogate into the problematic through a range of theoretical and methodological approaches. The book should offer students and researchers who are interested in the social impact of new media both critical reviews of the existing literature and inspirations for developing new research questions.

Integration of opinion into customer analysis model

As e-commerce is becoming more and more popular, the number of customer reviews that a product receives grows rapidly. In order to enhance customer satisfaction and their shopping experiences, it has become important to analysis customers reviews to extract opinions on the products that they buy. Thus, Opinion Mining is getting more important than before especially in doing analysis and forecasting about customers’ behavior for businesses purpose. The right decision in producing new products or services based on data about customers’ characteristics means profit for organization/company. This paper proposes a new architecture for Opinion Mining, which uses a multidimensional model to integrate customers’ characteristics and their comments about products (or services). The key step to achieve this objective is to transfer comments (opinions) to a fact table that includes several dimensions, such as, customers, products, time and locations. This research presents a comprehensive way to calculate customers’ orientation for all possible products’ attributes.

The story behind the stories: Qualitative criminology research in Australia

Qualitative Criminology: Stories from the Field brings to life the stories behind the research of both emerging and established scholars in Australian criminology. The book’s contributors provided honest, reflective, and decidedly unsanitised accounts of their qualitative research journeys - the lively tales of what really happens when conducting research of this nature, the stories that often make for parenthetical asides in conference papers but tend to be excised from journal articles. This book considers the gap between research methods and the realities of qualitative research. As such, it aims to help researchers and students who conduct qualitative criminological research reflect upon their role as researchers, and the practical, ideological and ethical issues which may arise in the course of their research. It is also a call to criminologists to make public the ‘failures’ and missteps of their research endeavours so that we can learn from one another and become better informed and more reflexive qualitative criminologists.

The difference of thermal stability between Fe-substituted palygorskite and Al-rich palygorskite

Sedimentary palygorskite (SP) and hydrothermal palygorskite (HP) were characterized by XRF, TG/DSC, andXRD. The total iron and dissociative iron in palygorskite were detected using spectrophotometry. The results showed that about 3.57 wt% of Fe2O3 was detected in SP in contrast with 0.4 wt% in HP. SP was a Fe-substituted palygorskite, and HP was an Al-rich palygorskite. The occurrence of Fe substitution in SP resulted in two mass loss steps of coordinated water and resulted in a larger d spacing. The SP showed greater thermal stability than the HP. It was proposed the change of (200) diffraction peak and (240) diffraction peak reflect changes of tetrahedral and octahedral structures in palygorskite.