A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

A multi-resolution image alignment technique based on direct methods for pose estimation of aerial vehicles

In this paper, we seek to expand the use of direct methods in real-time applications by proposing a vision-based strategy for pose estimation of aerial vehicles. The vast majority of approaches make use of features to estimate motion. Conversely, the strategy we propose is based on a MR (Multi- Resolution) implementation of an image registration technique (Inverse Compositional Image Alignment ICIA) using direct methods. An on-board camera in a downwards-looking configuration, and the assumption of planar scenes, are the bases of the algorithm. The motion between frames (rotation and translation) is recovered by decomposing the frame-to-frame homography obtained by the ICIA algorithm applied to a patch that covers around the 80% of the image. When the visual estimation is required (e.g. GPS drop-out), this motion is integrated with the previous known estimation of the vehicles’ state, obtained from the on-board sensors (GPS/IMU), and the subsequent estimations are based only on the vision-based motion estimations. The proposed strategy is tested with real flight data in representative stages of a flight: cruise, landing, and take-off, being two of those stages considered critical: take-off and landing. The performance of the pose estimation strategy is analyzed by comparing it with the GPS/IMU estimations. Results show correlation between the visual estimation obtained with the MR-ICIA and the GPS/IMU data, that demonstrate that the visual estimation can be used to provide a good approximation of the vehicle’s state when it is required (e.g. GPS drop-outs). In terms of performance, the proposed strategy is able to maintain an estimation of the vehicle’s state for more than one minute, at real-time frame rates based, only on visual information.

The acute adaptations of normal and pathological human Achilles tendons to eccentric and concentric exercise

Eccentric exercise is the conservative treatment of choice for mid-portion Achilles tendinopathy. While there is a growing body of evidence supporting the medium to long term efficacy of eccentric exercise in Achilles tendinopathy treatment, very few studies have investigated the short term response of the tendon to eccentric exercise. Moreover, the mechanisms through which tendinopathy symptom resolution occurs remain to be established. The primary purpose of this thesis was to investigate the acute adaptations of the Achilles tendon to, and the biomechanical characteristics of, the eccentric exercise protocol used for Achilles tendinopathy rehabilitation and a concentric equivalent. The research was conducted with an orientation towards exploring potential mechanisms through which eccentric exercise may bring about a resolution of tendinopathy symptoms. Specifically, the morphology of tendinopathic and normal Achilles tendons was monitored using high resolution sonography prior to and following eccentric and concentric exercise, to facilitate comparison between the treatment of choice and a similar alternative. To date, the only proposed mechanism through which eccentric exercise is thought to result in symptom resolution is the increased variability in motor output force observed during eccentric exercise. This thesis expanded upon prior work by investigating the variability in motor output force recorded during eccentric and concentric exercises, when performed at two different knee joint angles, by limbs with and without symptomatic tendinopathy. The methodological phase of the research focused on establishing the reliability of measures of tendon thickness, tendon echogenicity, electromyography (EMG) of the Triceps Surae and the standard deviation (SD) and power spectral density (PSD) of the vertical ground reaction force (VGRF). These analyses facilitated comparison between the error in the measurements and experimental differences identified as statistically significant, so that the importance and meaning of the experimental differences could be established. One potential limitation of monitoring the morphological response of the Achilles tendon to exercise loading is that the Achilles tendon is continually exposed to additional loading as participants complete the walking required to carry out their necessary daily tasks. The specific purpose of the last experiment in the methodological phase was to evaluate the effect of incidental walking activity on Achilles tendon morphology. The results of this study indicated that walking activity could decrease Achilles tendon thickness (negative diametral strain) and that the decrease in thickness was dependent on both the amount of walking completed and the proximity of walking activity to the sonographic examination. Thus, incidental walking activity was identified as a potentially confounding factor for future experiments which endeavoured to monitor changes in tendon thickness with exercise loading. In the experimental phase of this thesis the thickness of Achilles tendons was monitored prior to and following isolated eccentric and concentric exercise. The initial pilot study demonstrated that eccentric exercise resulted in a greater acute decrease in Achilles tendon thickness (greater diametral strain) compared to an equivalent concentric exercise, in participants with no history of Achilles tendon pain. This experiment was then expanded to incorporate participants with unilateral Achilles tendinopathy. The major finding of this experiment was that the acute decrease in Achilles tendon thickness observed following eccentric exercise was modified by the presence of tendinopathy, with a smaller decrease (less diametral strain) noted for tendinopathic compared to healthy control tendon. Based on in vitro evidence a decrease in tendon thickness is believed to reflect extrusion of fluid from the tendon with loading. This process would appear to be limited by the presence of pathology and is hypothesised to be a result of the changes in tendon structure associated with tendinopathy. Load induced fluid movement may be important to the maintenance of tendon homeostasis and structure as it has the potential to enhance molecular movement and stimulate tendon remodelling. On this basis eccentric exercise may be more beneficial to the tendon than concentric exercise. Finally, EMG and motor output force variability (SD and PSD of VGRF) were investigated while participants with and without tendinopathy performed the eccentric and concentric exercises. Although between condition differences were identified as statistically significant for a number of force variability parameters, the differences were not greater than the limits of agreement for repeated measures. Consequently the meaning and importance of these findings were questioned. Interestingly, the EMG amplitude of all three Triceps Surae muscles did not vary with knee joint angle during the performance of eccentric exercise. This raises questions pertaining to the functional importance of performing the eccentric exercise protocol at each of the two knee joint angles as it is currently prescribed. EMG amplitude was significantly greater during concentric compared to eccentric muscle actions. Differences in the muscle activation patterns may result in different stress distributions within the tendon and be related to the different diametral strain responses observed for eccentric and concentric muscle actions.

Breastfeeding self-efficacy and alternative techniques to overcome maternal or infant breastfeeding challenges : a retrospective descriptive study

Background: Breastfeeding is the internationally accepted ideal in infant feeding. Ensuring mothers and babies receive optimal benefits, in both the short and long term, is dependent upon the successful establishment of breastfeeding in the first week. Many maternal and infant challenges can occur during the establishment of breastfeeding (Lactogenesis II). There are also many methods and devices (alternative techniques) which can be used to help, but the majority do not have an evidence-base. The mother.s self-confidence (self-efficacy) can be challenged by these unexpected circumstances, but understanding of the relationship is unclear. Method: This descriptive study used mail survey (including the Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale . Short Form) to obtain the mother.s reports of their self-efficacy and their breastfeeding experience during the first week following birth, as well as actual use of alternative techniques. This study included all mothers of full term healthy singleton infants from one private hospital in Brisbane who began any breastfeeding. The data collection took place from November 2008 to February 2009. Ethical approval was granted from the research site and QUT Human Research Ethics Committee. Results: A total of 128 questionnaires were returned, a response rate of 56.9%. The sample was dissimilar to the Queensland population with regard to age, income, and education level, all of which were higher in this study. The sample was similar to the Queensland population in terms of parity and marital status. The rate of use of alternative techniques was 48.3%. The mean breastfeeding self-efficacy score of those who used any alternative technique was 43.43 (SD=12.19), and for those who did not, it was 58.32 (SD=7.40). Kruskal-Wallis analysis identified that the median self efficacy score for those who used alternative techniques was significantly lower than median self efficacy scores for those who did not use alternative techniques. The reasons women used alternative techniques varied widely, and their knowledge of alternative techniques was good. Conclusion: This study is the first to document breastfeeding self-efficacy of women who used alternative techniques to support their breastfeeding goals in the first week postpartum. An individualised clinical intervention to develop women.s self-efficacy with breastfeeding is important to assist mother/infant dyads encountering challenges to breastfeeding in the first week postpartum.

Unlocking black box models of leadership effectiveness: Exploring alternative research and policy metaphors

There is an intimate interconnectivity between policy guidelines defining reform and the delineation of what research methods would be subsequently applied to determine reform success. Research is guided as much by the metaphors describing it as by the ensuing empirical definition of actions of results obtained from it. In a call for different reform policy metaphors Lumby and English (2010) note, “The primary responsibility for the parlous state of education... lies with the policy makers that have racked our schools with reductive and dehumanizing processes, following the metaphors of market efficiency, and leadership models based on accounting and the characteristics of machine bureaucracy” (p. 127)

The power of historical causal components involved in engaging at risk youth at three alternative schools

This article addresses the causal powers associated with the social phenomena of alternative schooling for youth at risk. It stems from a doctoral thesis, Alternative Schooling Programs for At Risk Youth – Three Case Studies which addresses wider issues integral to alternative schooling: youth at risk, alternative schooling models, and literacy. This article explores one aspect of alternative schooling: the historical causal factors involved in the establishment and continuance of three alternative case study models in Queensland, Australia. By adhering to Bhaskar’s transformational model of social activity (TMSA) , social structures and individuals will be analytically distinguished to uncover their separate causal powers and how these have effected the establishment and continuance of three alternative schools.

High-resolution DNA melt curve analysis of the clustered, regularly interspaced short-palindromic-repeat locus of Campylobacter jejuni

A novel method for genotyping the clustered, regularly interspaced short-palindromic-repeat (CRISPR) locus of Campylobacter jejuni is described. Following real-time PCR, CRISPR products were subjected to high-resolution melt (HRM) analysis, a new technology that allows precise melt profile determination of amplicons. This investigation shows that the CRISPR HRM assay provides a powerful addition to existing C. jejuni genotyping methods and emphasizes the potential of HRM for genotyping short sequence repeats in other species

Three carrier ambiguity resolution : distance-independent performance demonstrated using semi-generated triple frequency GPS signals

In spite of significant research in the development of efficient algorithms for three carrier ambiguity resolution, full performance potential of the additional frequency signals cannot be demonstrated effectively without actual triple frequency data. In addition, all the proposed algorithms showed their difficulties in reliable resolution of the medium-lane and narrow-lane ambiguities in different long-range scenarios. In this contribution, we will investigate the effects of various distance-dependent biases, identifying the tropospheric delay to be the key limitation for long-range three carrier ambiguity resolution. In order to achieve reliable ambiguity resolution in regional networks with the inter-station distances of hundreds of kilometers, a new geometry-free and ionosphere-free model is proposed to fix the integer ambiguities of the medium-lane or narrow-lane observables over just several minutes without distance constraint. Finally, the semi-simulation method is introduced to generate the third frequency signals from dual-frequency GPS data and experimentally demonstrate the research findings of this paper.

Predicting psychologists’ intentions to integrate complementary and alternative therapies (CAT) into their practice.

This study assessed the validity of a scale measuring psychologists' attitudes towards complementary and alternative therapies and compared the attitudes of psychologists with a previous sample of psychology students. The scale, derived from existing measures for medical professionals and previously tested on a sample of psychology students, was completed by practising psychologists (N = 122). The data were factor analysed, and three correlated subscales were identified, assessing the perceived importance of knowledge about available therapies, attitudes towards integration with psychological practice, and concerns about associated risks of use. This structure was similar, but not identical, to that found in a previous sample of psychology students; however, psychologists expressed more concern for risks associated with integration and were less likely to hold a positive attitude towards integration. This scale will be useful in gauging changes in psychologists' attitudes towards integrative practice over time.

Integrating complementary and alternative therapies into psychological practice : A qualitative analysis

Although complementary and alternative therapies (CATs) are utilised widely for treating psychological disorders, little research has examined psychologists' beliefs about integrating CAT into psychological practice. Six practicing psychologists and six psychology students were interviewed about their CAT integration beliefs, in particular integrating CAT into clinical practice via recommending CATs, offering referrals to CAT practitioners, or undertaking training to utilise CATs within psychological practice. Guided broadly from a theory of planned behaviour perspective, participants raised a number of costs and benefits, discussed referent groups who would influence their decisions, and suggested motivators and barriers for integration. A number of additional themes were raised, including risks, such as the possibility of litigation and the need for clear Society guidelines, as most participants were unclear about what constitutes appropriate practice. Identifying these themes serves as an important initial step to informing discussion and policy for this emerging practice issue within psychology.

Feature-domain super-resolution framework for gabor-based face and iris recognition

The low resolution of images has been one of the major limitations in recognising humans from a distance using their biometric traits, such as face and iris. Superresolution has been employed to improve the resolution and the recognition performance simultaneously, however the majority of techniques employed operate in the pixel domain, such that the biometric feature vectors are extracted from a super-resolved input image. Feature-domain superresolution has been proposed for face and iris, and is shown to further improve recognition performance by capitalising on direct super-resolving the features which are used for recognition. However, current feature-domain superresolution approaches are limited to simple linear features such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), which are not the most discriminant features for biometrics. Gabor-based features have been shown to be one of the most discriminant features for biometrics including face and iris. This paper proposes a framework to conduct super-resolution in the non-linear Gabor feature domain to further improve the recognition performance of biometric systems. Experiments have confirmed the validity of the proposed approach, demonstrating superior performance to existing linear approaches for both face and iris biometrics.