Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Efficient minimax strategies for square loss games

We consider online prediction problems where the loss between the prediction and the outcome is measured by the squared Euclidean distance and its generalization, the squared Mahalanobis distance. We derive the minimax solutions for the case where the prediction and action spaces are the simplex (this setup is sometimes called the Brier game) and the \ell_2 ball (this setup is related to Gaussian density estimation). We show that in both cases the value of each sub-game is a quadratic function of a simple statistic of the state, with coefficients that can be efficiently computed using an explicit recurrence relation. The resulting deterministic minimax strategy and randomized maximin strategy are linear functions of the statistic.

The evolving landscape of natural resource planning and governance in Australia

Australia’s governance of land and natural resources involves multiple polycentric domains of decision-making from global through to local levels. Although certainly complex, these arrangements have not necessarily translated into better decision-making or better environmental outcomes as evidenced by the growing concerns over the health and future of the Great Barrier Reef, (GBR). However within this system, arrangements for natural resource management (NRM) and reef water quality, which both use Australia’s integrated regional NRM model, have showed signs of improving decision-making and environmental outcomes in the GBR. In this paper we describe the latest evolutions in the governance and planning for natural resource use and management in Australia. We begin by reviewing the experience with first generation NRM as published in major audits and evaluations. As our primary interest is the health and future of the GBR, we then consider the impact of changes of second generation planning and governance outcomes in Queensland. We find that first generation plans, although developed under a relatively cohesive governance context, faced substantial problems in target setting, implementation, monitoring and review. Despite this, they were able to progress improvements in water quality in the Great Barrier Reef Regions. Second generation plans, currently being developed, face an even greater risk of failure due to the lack of bilateralism and cross-sectoral cooperation across the NRM governance system. The findings highlight the critical need to re-build and enhance the regional NRM model for NRM planning to have a positive impact on environmental outcomes in the GBR.

PM348 Heart education assessment and rehabilitation toolkit: Heart online. A web resource for clinicians

Access to the right information at the right time is a challenge facing health professionals across the globe. HEART Online (www.heartonline.org.au) is a website designed to support the delivery of evidence based care for the prevention and rehabilitation of heart disease. It was developed by the Queensland Government and the National Heart Foundation of Australia and launched May 2013.

Exploring the usefulness of structural-functional approaches to systematically assess the functionality of governance arrangements for natural resource management planning in two Australian case studies

This research developed and applied an evaluative framework to analyse multiple scales of decision-making for environmental management planning. It is the first exploration of the sociological theory of structural-functionalism and its usefulness to support evidence based decision-making in a planning context. The framework was applied to analyse decision-making in Queensland's Cape York Peninsula and Wet Tropics regions.

Osseointegration for limb loss: Can Australia play a key role?

Individuals with limb amputation fitted with conventional socket-suspended prostheses often experience socket related discomfort leading to a significant decrease in quality of life. Most of these concerns can be overcome by surgical techniques enabling bone-anchored prostheses. In this case, the prosthesis is attached directly to the residual skeleton through a percutaneous implant. The aim of this study is to present the current advances in these surgical techniques worldwide with a strong focus on the developments in Australia and Queensland.

Classification of activities of daily living of individual with limb loss

The monitoring of the actual activities of daily living of individuals with lower limb amputation is essential for an evidence-based fitting of the prosthesis, more particularly the choice of components (e.g., knees, ankles, feet)[1-4]. The purpose of this presentation was to give an overview of the categorization of the load regime data to assess the functional output and usage of the prosthesis of lower limb amputees has presented in several publications[5, 6]. The objectives were to present a categorization of load regime and to report the results for a case.

Brief report regarding past vehicle rollover and loss of traction incidents that have occurred at various BM Alliance Coal Operation mines in Queensland. Report to BM Alliance Coal Operation

This document has arisen from a request from BM Alliance Coal Operations Pty Ltd, to undertake and report on the key findings and statistics, key learning’s and recommendations for vehicle rollover and loss of traction (skid) incidents that have occurred at various BM Alliance coal operation mines in Queensland.

Application of higher-order spectra for automated grading of diabetic maculopathy

Diabetic macular edema (DME) is one of the most common causes of visual loss among diabetes mellitus patients. Early detection and successive treatment may improve the visual acuity. DME is mainly graded into non-clinically significant macular edema (NCSME) and clinically significant macular edema according to the location of hard exudates in the macula region. DME can be identified by manual examination of fundus images. It is laborious and resource intensive. Hence, in this work, automated grading of DME is proposed using higher-order spectra (HOS) of Radon transform projections of the fundus images. We have used third-order cumulants and bispectrum magnitude, in this work, as features, and compared their performance. They can capture subtle changes in the fundus image. Spectral regression discriminant analysis (SRDA) reduces feature dimension, and minimum redundancy maximum relevance method is used to rank the significant SRDA components. Ranked features are fed to various supervised classifiers, viz. Naive Bayes, AdaBoost and support vector machine, to discriminate No DME, NCSME and clinically significant macular edema classes. The performance of our system is evaluated using the publicly available MESSIDOR dataset (300 images) and also verified with a local dataset (300 images). Our results show that HOS cumulants and bispectrum magnitude obtained an average accuracy of 95.56 and 94.39 % for MESSIDOR dataset and 95.93 and 93.33 % for local dataset, respectively.

Not learning from the past: Adaptive governance challenges for Australian natural resource management

Australia’s governance arrangements for NRM have evolved considerably over the last thirty years. The impact of changes in governance on NRM planning and delivery requires assessment. We undertake a multi-method program evaluation using adaptive governance principles as an analytical frame and apply this to Queensland to assess the impacts of governance change on NRM planning and governance outcomes. Data to inform our analysis includes: 1) a systematic review of sixteen audits/evaluations of Australian NRM over a fifteen-year period; 2) a review of Queensland’s first generation NRM Plans; and 3) outputs from a Queensland workshop on NRM planning. NRM has progressed from a bottom-up grassroots movement into a collaborative regional NRM model that has been centralised by the Australian Government. We found that while some adaptive governance challenges have been addressed, others remained unresolved. Results show that collaboration and elements of multi-level governance under the regional model were positive moves, but also that NRM arrangements contained structural deficiencies across multiple governance levels in relation to public involvement in decision-making and knowledge production for problem responsiveness. These problems for adaptive governance have been exacerbated since 2008. We conclude that the adaptive governance framework for NRM needs urgent attention so that important environmental management problems can be addressed.

Retaining a diverse workforce: The impact of gender-focused human resource management

Demography theory suggests that high gender diversity leads to high turnover. As turnover is costly, we tested the following: a main effect prediction derived from demography theory, and a moderating effect prediction derived from the relational framework. Data on 198 publicly listed organizations were collected through a human resources decision maker survey and archival databases. The results indicate that higher gender diversity leads to lower turnover in organizations with many gender-focused policies and practices. Findings suggest that organizations can lower their turnover rates by increasing their gender diversity and by implementing gender-focused policies and practices.

Coming of Age in 9/11 Fiction: Bildungsroman and Loss of Innocence

Directly after the horrific events of September 11, 2001, many Americans were saying the same thing: the world has changed forever. They were overwhelmed with a sense that “the party was over.” It was clear that America had lost its innocence; it now had to “grow up.” Much of the fiction produced since 9/11 and with 9/11 at its core provides evidence of the larger cultural belief that September 11 was a turning point (much like adolescence) from which there is no turning back. In this chapter, I examine how three post-9/11 novels—Lorrie Moore’s A Gate at the Stairs, Joyce Maynard’s The Usual Rules, and John Updike’s Terrorist—position readers to understand September 11 as a moment that changed how young Americans come of age.

Comparative analysis reveals loss of the appetite-regulating peptide hormone ghrelin in falcons

Ghrelin and leptin are key peripherally secreted appetite-regulating hormones in vertebrates. Here we consider the ghrelin gene (GHRL) of birds (class Aves), where it has been reported that ghrelin inhibits rather than augments feeding. Thirty-one bird species were compared, revealing that most species harbour a functional copy of GHRL and the coding region for its derived peptides ghrelin and obestatin. We provide evidence for loss of GHRL in saker and peregrine falcons, and this is likely to result from the insertion of an ERVK retrotransposon in intron 0. We hypothesise that the loss of anorexigenic ghrelin is a predatory adaptation that results in increased food-seeking behaviour and feeding in falcons.

Change visualisation: Analysing the resource and timing differences between two event logs

With organisations facing significant challenges to remain competitive, Business Process Improvement (BPI) initiatives are often conducted to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their business processes, focussing on time, cost, and quality improvements. Event logs which contain a detailed record of business operations over a certain time period, recorded by an organisation's information systems, are the first step towards initiating evidence-based BPI activities. Given an (original) event log as a starting point, an approach to explore better ways to execute a business process was developed, resulting in an improved (perturbed) event log. Identifying the differences between the original event log and the perturbed event log can provide valuable insights, helping organisations to improve their processes. However, there is a lack of automated techniques to detect the differences between two event logs. Therefore, this research aims to develop visualisation techniques to provide targeted analysis of resource reallocation and activity rescheduling. The differences between two event logs are first identified. The changes between the two event logs are conceptualised and realised with a number of visualisations. With the proposed visualisations, analysts will then be able to identify the changes related to resource and time, resulting in a more efficient business process. Ultimately, analysts can make use of this comparative information to initiate evidence-based BPI activities.