Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Learning processes in creative service teams : towards a dynamic systems theory

The fastest-growing segment of jobs in the creative sector are in those firms that provide creative services to other sectors (Hearn, Goldsmith, Bridgstock, Rodgers 2014, this volume; Cunningham 2014, this volume). There are also a large number of Creative Services (Architecture and Design, Advertising and Marketing, Software and Digital Content occupations) workers embedded in organizations in other industry sectors (Cunningham and Higgs 2009). Ben Goldsmith (2014, this volume) shows, for example, that the Financial Services sector is the largest employer of digital creative talent in Australia. But why should this be? We argue it is because ‘knowledge-based intangibles are increasingly the source of value creation and hence of sustainable competitive advantage (Mudambi 2008, 186). This value creation occurs primarily at the research and development (R and D) and the marketing ends of the supply chain. Both of these areas require strong creative capabilities in order to design for, and to persuade, consumers. It is no surprise that Jess Rodgers (2014, this volume), in a study of Australia’s Manufacturing sector, found designers and advertising and marketing occupations to be the most numerous creative occupations. Greg Hearn and Ruth Bridgstock (2013, forthcoming) suggest ‘the creative heart of the creative economy […] is the social and organisational routines that manage the generation of cultural novelty, both tacit and codified, internal and external, and [cultural novelty’s] combination with other knowledges […] produce and capture value’. 2 Moreover, the main “social and organisational routine” is usually a team (for example, Grabher 2002; 2004).

Molecular dynamics investigation on shearing between osteopontin and hydroxyapatite in biological materials

Bone, a hard biological material, possesses a combination of high stiffness and toughness, even though the main basic building blocks of bone are simply mineral platelets and protein molecules. Bone has a very complex microstructure with at least seven hierachical levels. This unique material characteristic attracts great attention, but the deformation mechanisms in bone have not been well understood. Simulation at nano-length scale such as molecular dynamics (MD) is proven to be a powerful tool to investigate bone nanomechanics for developing new artificial biological materials. This study focuses on the ultra large and thin layer of extrafibrillar protein matrix (thickness = ~ 1 nm) located between mineralized collagen fibrils (MCF). Non-collagenous proteins such as osteopontin (OPN) can be found in this protein matrix, while MCF consists mainly of hydroxyapatite (HA) nanoplatelets (thickness = 1.5 – 4.5 nm). By using molecular dynamics method, an OPN peptide was pulled between two HA mineral platelets with water in presence. Periodic boundary condition (PBC) was applied. The results indicate that the mechanical response of OPN peptide greatly depends on the attractive electrostatics interaction between the acidic residues in OPN peptide and HA mineral surfaces. These bonds restrict the movement of OPN peptide, leading to a high energy dissipation under shear loading.

Effectiveness of an acellular synthetic matrix in the treatment of hard-to-heal leg ulcers

Hard-to-heal leg ulcers are a major cause of morbidity in the elderly population. Despite improvements in wound care, some wounds will not heal and they present a significant challenge for patients and health care providers. A multi-centre cohort study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of a synthetic, extracellular matrix protein as an adjunct to standard care in the treatment of hard-to-heal venous or mixed leg ulcers. Primary effectiveness criteria were (i) reduction in wound size evaluated by percentage change in wound area and (ii) healing assessed by number of patients healed by end of the 12 week study. Pain reduction was assessed as a secondary effectiveness criteria using VAS. A total of 45 patients completed the study and no difference was observed between cohorts for treatment frequency. Healing was achieved in 35·6% and wound size decreased in 93·3% of patients. Median wound area percentage reduction was 70·8%. Over 50% of patients reported pain on first visit and 87·0% of these reported no pain at the end of the study. Median time to first reporting of no pain was 14 days after treatment initiation. The authors consider the extracellular synthetic matrix protein an effective and safe adjunct to standard care in the treatment of hard-to-heal leg ulcers.

2010–2011 Queensland floods : using Haddon's Matrix to define and categorise public safety strategies

Objective The 2010–2011 Queensland floods resulted in the most deaths from a single flood event in Australia since 1916. This article analyses the information on these deaths for comparison with those from previous floods in modern Australia in an attempt to identify factors that have contributed to those deaths. Haddon's Matrix, originally designed for prevention of road trauma, offers a framework for understanding the interplay between contributing factors and helps facilitate a clearer understanding of the varied strategies required to ensure people's safety for particular flood types. Methods Public reports and flood relevant literature were searched using key words ‘flood’, ‘fatality’, ‘mortality’, ‘death’, ‘injury’ and ‘victim’ through Google Scholar, PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO. Data relating to reported deaths during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods, and relevant data of previous Australian flood fatality (1997–2009) were collected from these available sources. These sources were also used to identify contributing factors. Results There were 33 deaths directly attributed to the event, of which 54.5% were swept away in a flash flood on 10 January 2011. A further 15.1% of fatalities were caused by inappropriate behaviours. This is different to floods in modern Australia where over 90% of deaths are related to the choices made by individuals. There is no single reason why people drown in floods, but rather a complex interplay of factors. Conclusions The present study and its integration of research findings and conceptual frameworks might assist governments and communities to develop policies and strategies to prevent flood injury and fatalities.

Toward biomimetic materials in bone regeneration : functional behavior of mesenchymal stem cells on a broad spectrum of extracellular matrix components

Bone defect treatments can be augmented by mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) based therapies. MSC interaction with the extracellular matrix (ECM) of the surrounding tissue regulates their functional behavior. Understanding of these specific regulatory mechanisms is essential for the therapeutic stimulation of MSC in vivo. However, these interactions are presently only partially understood. This study examined in parallel, for the first time, the effects on the functional behavior of MSCs of 13 ECM components from bone, cartilage and hematoma compared to a control protein, and hence draws conclusions for rational biomaterial design. ECM components specifically modulated MSC adhesion, migration, proliferation, and osteogenic differentiation, for example, fibronectin facilitated migration, adhesion, and proliferation, but not osteogenic differentiation, whereas fibrinogen enhanced adhesion and proliferation, but not migration. Subsequently, the integrin expression pattern of MSCs was determined and related to the cell behavior on specific ECM components. Finally, on this basis, peptide sequences are reported for the potential stimulation of MSC functions. Based on the results of this study, ECM component coatings could be designed to specifically guide cell functions.

Material yielding by both axial and bending spring stiffness at elevated temperature

Material yielding is typically modeled either by plastic zone or plastic hinge methods under the context of geometric and material nonlinear finite element methods. In fire analysis of steel structures, the plastic zone method is widely used, but it requires extensively more computational efforts. The objective of this paper is to develop the nonlinear material model allowing for interaction of both axial force and bending moment, which relies on the plastic hinge method to achieve numerical efficiency and reduce computational effort. The biggest advantage of the plastic-hinge approach is its computational efficiency and easy verification by the design code formulae of the axial force–moment interaction yield criterion for beam–column members. Further, the method is reliable and robust when used in analysis of practical and large structures. In order to allow for the effect of catenary action, axial thermal expansion is considered in the axial restraint equations. The yield function for material yielding incorporated in the stiffness formulation, which allows for both axial force and bending moment effects, is more accurate and rational to predict the behaviour of the frames under fire. In the present fire analysis, the mechanical properties at elevated temperatures follow mainly the Eurocode 3 [Design of steel structures, Part 1.2: Structural fire design. European Committee for Standisation; 2003]. Example of a tension member at a steady state heating condition is modeled to verify the proposed spring formulation and to compare with results by others. The behaviour of a heated member in a highly redundant structure is also studied by the present approach.

Interleukin-1β stimulates human renal fibroblast proliferation and matrix protein production by means of a transforming growth factor-β-dependent mechanism

One of the hallmarks of progressive renal disease is the development of tubulointerstitial fibrosis. This is frequently preceded by macrophage infiltration, raising the possibility that macrophages relay fibrogenic signals to resident tubulointerstitial cells. The aim of this study was to investigate the potentially fibrogenic role of interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), a macrophage-derived inflammatory cytokine, on cortical fibroblasts (CFs). Primary cultures of human renal CFs were established and incubated for 24 hours in the presence or absence of IL-1beta. We found that IL-1beta significantly stimulated DNA synthesis (356.7% +/- 39% of control, P <.003), fibronectin secretion (261.8 +/- 11% of control, P <.005), collagen type 1 production, (release of procollagen type 1 C-terminal-peptide, 152.4% +/- 26% of control, P <.005), transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) secretion (211% +/- 37% of control, P <.01), and nitric oxide (NO) production (342.8% +/- 69% of control, P <.002). TGF-beta (1 ng/mL) and the phorbol ester phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA, 25 nmol/L) produced fibrogenic effects similar to those of IL-1beta. Neither a NO synthase inhibitor (N(G)-methyl-l-arginine, 1 mmol/L) nor a protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor (bis-indolylmaleimide 1, 1 micromol/L) altered the enhanced level of fibronectin secretion or DNA synthesis seen in response to IL-1beta treatment. However, addition of a TGF-beta-neutralizing antibody significantly reduced IL-1beta-induced fibronectin secretion (IL-1beta + IgG, 262% +/- 72% vs IL-1beta + alphaTGF-beta 156% +/- 14%, P <.02), collagen type 1 production (IL-1beta + IgG, 176% +/- 28% vs IL-1beta + alphaTGF-beta, 120% +/- 14%, P <.005) and abrogated IL-1beta-induced DNA synthesis (245% +/- 49% vs 105% +/- 21%, P <.005). IL-1beta significantly stimulated CF DNA synthesis and production of fibronectin, collagen type 1, TGFbeta, and NO. The fibrogenic and proliferative action of IL-1beta on CF appears not to involve activation of PKC or production of NO but is at least partly TGFbeta-dependent.

Rapid yet accurate speech indexing using dynamic match lattice spotting

The support for typically out-of-vocabulary query terms such as names, acronyms, and foreign words is an important requirement of many speech indexing applications. However, to date many unrestricted vocabulary indexing systems have struggled to provide a balance between good detection rate and fast query speeds. This paper presents a fast and accurate unrestricted vocabulary speech indexing technique named Dynamic Match Lattice Spotting (DMLS). The proposed method augments the conventional lattice spotting technique with dynamic sequence matching, together with a number of other novel algorithmic enhancements, to obtain a system that is capable of searching hours of speech in seconds while maintaining excellent detection performance

Informational constraints on performance of dynamic interceptive actions

Utilising quantitative and qualitative research methods the thesis explored how movement patterns were coordinated under different conditions in elite athletes. Results revealed each elite athlete's ability to use multiple, varied information sources to guide successful task performance, highlighting the specific role of surrounding objects in the performance environment to perceptually guide behaviour. Combining elite coaching knowledge with empirical research enhanced understanding of the role of vision in regulating interceptive behaviours, enhancing the representative design of training environments. The main findings have been applied to training design of the Athletics Australia National Jumps Centre at the Queensland Academy of Sport in preparation for the World Indoor Championships, World Championships, and Olympic Games for Australian long and triple jumpers.

Matrix metalloproteinases during wound healing - a double edged sword

The extracellular matrix (ECM) provides a framework for cells and gives skin its tensile strength and elasticity. Loss of its integrity necessitates the clearing of damaged components and the deposition of firstly a provisional matrix and later remodelling of the ECM to support a functionally intact tissue. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are an important family of enzymes that function in the breakdown of the ECM and modulate the function of many biologically active molecules housed in the ECM. Through their enzymatic actions MMPs play a role in fundamental processes such as immune cell infiltration and ECM remodelling during wound repair. Their tight control is necessary for timely wound healing and excessive MMP activity participates in the development and persistence of chronic wounds, while reduced activity contributes to fibrosis. A number of inhibitors have been designed to target this activity and improve wound healing with limited success. Novel strategies are currently being investigated to improve wound healing by targeting MMP modulating molecules.

Linking dynamic-capability portfolios and innovation outcomes

The objective of this paper is to explore the relationship between dynamic capabilities and different types of online innovations. Building on qualitative data from the publishing industry, our analysis revealed that companies that had relatively strong dynamic capabilities in all three areas (sensing, seizing and reconfiguration) seem to produce innovations that combine their existing capabilities on either the market or the technology dimension with new capabilities on the other dimension thus resulting in niche creation and revolutionary type innovations. Correspondingly, companies with a weaker or more one-sided set of dynamic capabilities seem to produce more radical innovations requiring both new market and technological capabilities. The study therefore provides an empirical contribution to the emerging work on dynamic capabilities through its in-depth investigation of the capabilities of the four case firms, and by mapping the patterns between the firm's portfolio of dynamic capabilities and innovation outcomes.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Voltage unbalance reduction in low voltage feeders by dynamic switching of residential customers among three phases

Low voltage distribution feeders with large numbers of single phase residential loads experience severe current unbalance that often causes voltage unbalance problems. The addition of intermittent generation and new loads in the form of roof top photovoltaic generation and electric vehicles makes these problems even more acute. In this paper, an intelligent dynamic residential load transfer scheme is proposed. Residential loads can be transferred from one phase to another phase to minimize the voltage unbalance along the feeder. Each house is supplied through a static transfer switch with three-phase input and single-phase output connection. The main controller, installed at the transformer will observe the power consumption in each load and determine which house(s) should be transferred from one phase to another in order to keep the voltage unbalance in the feeder at a minimum. The efficacy of the proposed load transfer scheme is verified through MATLAB and PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

Wide area controls for transient and dynamic stability enhancement

This paper presents a study done into the effectiveness of using local acceleration measurements vs. remote angle measurements in providing stabilising control via SVCs following large disturbances. The system studied was an analogue of the Queensland-New South Wales Interconnection (QNI) and involved the control of an existing Static Var Compensators (SVC) at Sydney West. This study is placed in the context of wide area controls for large systems using aggregated models for groups of machines.