Spectrum of ankylosing spondylitis in Portugal. Development of BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI and mSASSS reference centile charts

The availability of population-specific normative data regarding disease severity measures is essential for patient assessment. The goals of the current study were to characterize the pattern of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in Portuguese patients and to develop reference centile charts for BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI and mSASSS, the most widely used assessment tools in AS. AS cases were recruited from hospital outpatient clinics, with AS defined according to the modified New York criteria. Demographic and clinical data were recorded. All radiographs were evaluated by two independent experienced readers. Centile charts for BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI and mSASSS were constructed for both genders, using generalized linear models and regression models with duration of disease as independent variable. A total of 369 patients (62.3% male, mean ± (SD) age 45.4 ± 13.2 years, mean ± (SD) disease duration 11.4 ± 10.5 years, 70.7% B27-positive) were included. Family history of AS in a first-degree relative was reported in 17.6% of the cases. Regarding clinical disease pattern, at the time of assessment 42.3% had axial disease, 2.4% peripheral disease, 40.9% mixed disease and 7.1% isolated enthesopatic disease. Anterior uveitis (33.6%) was the most common extra-articular manifestation. The centile charts suggest that females reported greater disease activity and more functional impairment than males but had lower BASMI and mSASSS scores. Data collected through this study provided a demographic and clinical profile of patients with AS in Portugal. The development of centile charts constitutes a useful tool to assess the change of disease pattern over time and in response to therapeutic interventions.

A review of efficiency measures for REITs and their specific application for Malaysian Islamic REITs

Purpose This paper aims to present a conceptual model on the efficiency of Islamic Real Estate Trusts (I-REITs) available in Malaysia. The key difference between the Islamic and their conventional investment vehicle part is mainly its own Shariah framework. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews and synthesises the relevant literature on the performance analysis and efficiency measurements of Real Estate Investment Trusts. The paper then develops and proposes a conceptual model to measure the efficiency of Malaysian Islamic REITs. Findings The paper identifies and examines the appropriate methods and instruments to measure the efficiency in relation to the risk and profitability of Islamic REITs. The efficiency measure is important for the fund managers in order to maximise the shareholders’ return in an investment of property portfolio as well as proposing the best way to allocate resources efficiently. Research limitation/implications This is a preliminary review of current work that identifies the issues that will be addressed in future empirical research. The authors will be undertaking this future empirical research in measuring the efficiency of Malaysian REITs particularly the Islamic REITs using the non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Originality/value To date, there has been very limited research on the efficiency measurement of Islamic REITs. The current analysis of REIT has been focused on traditional non-Islamic funds. This paper will review and discuss the current literature on efficiency measurement to determine the most appropriate approaches and methodologies for future application in performance analysis of efficiency measure for Malaysian Islamic REITs.

The root locus method: application to linear stability analysis and design of cooperative car-following models

A global framework for linear stability analyses of traffic models, based on the dispersion relation root locus method, is presented and is applied taking the example of a broad class of car-following (CF) models. This approach is able to analyse all aspects of the dynamics: long waves and short wave behaviours, phase velocities and stability features. The methodology is applied to investigate the potential benefits of connected vehicles, i.e. V2V communication enabling a vehicle to send and receive information to and from surrounding vehicles. We choose to focus on the design of the coefficients of cooperation which weights the information from downstream vehicles. The coefficients tuning is performed and different ways of implementing an efficient cooperative strategy are discussed. Hence, this paper brings design methods in order to obtain robust stability of traffic models, with application on cooperative CF models

Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Linear programming for large-scale Markov decision problems

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest goal of competing with a low-dimensional family of policies. We use the dual linear programming formulation of the MDP average cost problem, in which the variable is a stationary distribution over state-action pairs, and we consider a neighborhood of a low-dimensional subset of the set of stationary distributions (defined in terms of state-action features) as the comparison class. We propose a technique based on stochastic convex optimization and give bounds that show that the performance of our algorithm approaches the best achievable by any policy in the comparison class. Most importantly, this result depends on the size of the comparison class, but not on the size of the state space. Preliminary experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in a queuing application.

Linear and weakly nonlinear stability analyses of cooperative car-following models

Stability analyses have been widely used to better understand the mechanism of traffic jam formation. In this paper, we consider the impact of cooperative systems (a.k.a. connected vehicles) on traffic dynamics and, more precisely, on flow stability. Cooperative systems are emerging technologies enabling communication between vehicles and/or with the infrastructure. In a distributed communication framework, equipped vehicles are able to send and receive information to/from other equipped vehicles. Here, the effects of cooperative traffic are modeled through a general bilateral multianticipative car-following law that improves cooperative drivers' perception of their surrounding traffic conditions within a given communication range. Linear stability analyses are performed for a broad class of car-following models. They point out different stability conditions in both multianticipative and nonmultianticipative situations. To better understand what happens in unstable conditions, information on the shock wave structure is studied in the weakly nonlinear regime by the mean of the reductive perturbation method. The shock wave equation is obtained for generic car-following models by deriving the Korteweg de Vries equations. We then derive traffic-state-dependent conditions for the sign of the solitary wave (soliton) amplitude. This analytical result is verified through simulations. Simulation results confirm the validity of the speed estimate. The variation of the soliton amplitude as a function of the communication range is provided. The performed linear and weakly nonlinear analyses help justify the potential benefits of vehicle-integrated communication systems and provide new insights supporting the future implementation of cooperative systems.

Improved linear cryptanalysis of reduced-round SIMON-32 and SIMON-48

In this paper we analyse two variants of SIMON family of light-weight block ciphers against variants of linear cryptanalysis and present the best linear cryptanalytic results on these variants of reduced-round SIMON to date. We propose a time-memory trade-off method that finds differential/linear trails for any permutation allowing low Hamming weight differential/linear trails. Our method combines low Hamming weight trails found by the correlation matrix representing the target permutation with heavy Hamming weight trails found using a Mixed Integer Programming model representing the target differential/linear trail. Our method enables us to find a 17-round linear approximation for SIMON-48 which is the best current linear approximation for SIMON-48. Using only the correlation matrix method, we are able to find a 14-round linear approximation for SIMON-32 which is also the current best linear approximation for SIMON-32. The presented linear approximations allow us to mount a 23-round key recovery attack on SIMON-32 and a 24-round Key recovery attack on SIMON-48/96 which are the current best results on SIMON-32 and SIMON-48. In addition we have an attack on 24 rounds of SIMON-32 with marginal complexity.

ANKH and susceptibility to and severity of ankylosing spondylitis

Objective. Unconfirmed reports describe association of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) with several candidate genes including ANKH. Cellular export of inorganic pyrophosphate is regulated by the ANK protein, and mutant mice (ank/ank), which have a premature stop codon in the 3′ end of the ank gene, develop severe ankylosis. We tested the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in these genes and susceptibility to AS in a population of patients with AS. We investigated the role of these genes in terms of functional (BASFI) and metrological (BASMI) measures, and the association with radiological severity (mSASSS). Methods. Our study was conducted on 355 patients with AS and 95 ethnically matched healthy controls. AS was defined according to the modified New York criteria. Four SNP in ANKH (rs27356, rs26307, rs25957, and rs28006) were genotyped. Association analysis was performed using Cochrane-Armitage and linear regression tests for dichotomous and quantitative variables. Analyses of Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), BASFI, and mSASSS were controlled for sex and disease duration. Results. None of the 4 markers showed significant single-locus disease associations (p > 0.05), suggesting that ANKH was not a major determinant of AS susceptibility in our population. No association was observed between these SNP and age at symptom onset, BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI, or mSASSS. Conclusion. These results confirm data in white Europeans that ANKH is probably not a major determinant of susceptibility to AS. ANKH polymorphisms do not markedly influence AS disease severity, as measured by BASMI and mSASSS. The Journal of Rheumatology

Genetic analyses in a sample of individuals with high or low BMD shows association with multiple Wnt pathway genes

INTRODUCTION Although the high heritability of BMD variation has long been established, few genes have been conclusively shown to affect the variation of BMD in the general population. Extreme truncate selection has been proposed as a more powerful alternative to unselected cohort designs in quantitative trait association studies. We sought to test these theoretical predictions in studies of the bone densitometry measures BMD, BMC, and femoral neck area, by investigating their association with members of the Wnt pathway, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with BMD in much larger cohorts, in a moderate-sized extreme truncate selected cohort (absolute value BMD Z-scores = 1.5-4.0; n = 344). MATERIALS AND METHODS Ninety-six tag-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) lying in 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes were selected to tag common genetic variation (minor allele frequency [MAF] > 5% with an r(2) > 0.8) within 5 kb of all exons of 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes. The genes studied included LRP1, LRP5, LRP6, Wnt3a, Wnt7b, Wnt10b, SFRP1, SFRP2, DKK1, DKK2, FZD7, WISP3, and SOST. Three hundred forty-four cases with either high or low BMD were genotyped by Illumina Goldengate microarray SNP genotyping methods. Association was tested either by Cochrane-Armitage test for dichotomous variables or by linear regression for quantitative traits. RESULTS Strong association was shown with LRP5, polymorphisms of which have previously been shown to influence total hip BMD (minimum p = 0.0006). In addition, polymorphisms of the Wnt antagonist, SFRP1, were significantly associated with BMD and BMC (minimum p = 0.00042). Previously reported associations of LRP1, LRP6, and SOST with BMD were confirmed. Two other Wnt pathway genes, Wnt3a and DKK2, also showed nominal association with BMD. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that polymorphisms of multiple members of the Wnt pathway are associated with BMD variation. Furthermore, this study shows in a practical trial that study designs involving extreme truncate selection and moderate sample sizes can robustly identify genes of relevant effect sizes involved in BMD variation in the general population. This has implications for the design of future genome-wide studies of quantitative bone phenotypes relevant to osteoporosis.

Nutritional status of children with cystic fibrosis measured by total body potassium as a marker of body cell mass: Lack of sensitivity of anthropometric measures

Objective: To investigate measures aimed at defining the nutritional status of cystic fibrosis (CF) populations, this study compared standard anthropometric measurements and total body potassium (TBK) as indicators of malnutrition. Methods: Height, weight, and TBK measurements of 226 children with CF from Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, were analyzed. Z scores for height for age, weight for age, and weight for height were analyzed by means of the National Centre for Health Statistics reference. TBK was measured by means of whole body counting and compared with predicted TBK for age. Two criteria were evaluated with respect to malnutrition: (1) a z score < -2.0 and (2) a TBK for age <80% of predicted. Results: Males and females with CF had lower mean height-for-age and weight-for-age z scores than the National Centre for Health Statistics reference (P < .01), but mean weight-for-height z score was not significantly different. There were no significant gender differences. According to anthropometry, only 7.5% of this population were underweight and 7.6% were stunted. However, with TBK as an indicator of nutritional status, 29.9% of males and 22.0% of females were malnourished. Conclusion: There are large differences in the percentage of patients with CF identified as malnourished depending on whether anthropometry or body composition data are used as the nutritional indicator. At an individual level, weight-based indicators are not sensitive indicators of suboptimal nutritional status in CF, significantly underestimating the extent of malnutrition. Current recommendations in which anthropometry is used as the indicator of malnutrition in CF should be revised.

Two linear beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes

Two beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes are described. Both designs have the thermal stability of the Besocke beetle and the simplicity of the Wilms beetle. Moreover, sample holders were designed that also allow both semiconductor wafers and metal single crystals to be studied. The coarse approach is a linear motion of the beetle towards the sample using inertial slip–stick motion. Ten wires are required to control the position of the beetle and scanner and measure the tunneling current. The two beetles were built with different sized piezolegs, and the vibrational properties of both beetles were studied in detail. It was found, in agreement with previous work, that the beetle bending mode is the lowest principal eigenmode. However, in contrast to previous vibrational studies of beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes, we found that the beetles did not have the “rattling” modes that are thought to arise from the beetle sliding or rocking between surface asperities on the raceway. The mass of our beetles is 3–4 times larger than the mass of beetles where rattling modes have been observed. We conjecture that the mass of our beetles is above a “critical beetle mass.” This is defined to be the beetle mass that attenuates the rattling modes by elastically deforming the contact region to the extent that the rattling modes cannot be identified as distinct modes in cross-coupling measurements.

The impact of safety measures on the re-offence and crash rates of drink-driving offenders in Victoria

Alcohol is a major factor in road deaths and serious injuries. In Victoria, between 2008 and 2013, 30% of drivers killed were involved in alcohol-related crashes. From the early 1980s Victoria progressively introduced a series of measures, such as driver licence cancellation and alcohol interlocks, to reduce the level of drink-driving on Victoria's roads. This project tracked drink-driving offenders to measure and understand their re-offence and road trauma involvement levels during and after periods of licensing and driving interventions. The methodology controlled for exposure by aggregating crashes and traffic violations within relevant categories (e.g. licence cancelled/relicensed/relicensing not sought) and calculated as rates 'per thousand person-years'. Inferential statistical techniques were used to compare crash and offence rates between control and treatment groups across three distinct time periods, which coincided with the introduction of new interventions. This paper focuses on the extent to which the Victorian drink-driving measures have been successful in reducing re-offending and road trauma involvement during and after periods of licence interventions. It was found that a licence cancellation/ban is an effective drink-driving countermeasure as it reduced drink-driving offending and drink-driving crashes. Interlocks also had a positive effect on drink-driving offences as they were reduced during the interlock period as well as for the entire intervention period. Possible drink-driving policy implications are briefly discussed.

Measurement of stenotic carotid arterial compliance with MRI

Arterial compliance has been shown to correlate well with overall cardiovascular outcome and it may also be a potential risk factor for the development of atheromatous disease. This study assesses the utility of 2-D phase contrast Magnetic Resonance (MR) imaging with intra-sequence blood pressure measurement to determine carotid compliance and distensibility. 20 patients underwent 2-D phase contrast MR imaging and also ultrasound-based wall tracking measurements. Values for carotid compliance and distensibility were derived from the two different modalities and compared. Linear regression analysis was utilised to determine the extent of correlation between MR and ultrasound derived parameters. In those variables that could be directly compared, an agreement analysis was undertaken. MR measures of compliance showed a good correlation with measures based on ultrasound wall-tracking (r=0.61, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.81 p=0.0003). Vessels that had undergone carotid endarterectomy previously were significantly less compliant than either diseased or normal contralateral vessels (p=0.04). Agreement studies showed a relatively poor intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) between diameter-based measures of compliance through either MR or ultrasound (ICC=0.14). MRI based assessment of local carotid compliance appears to be both robust and technically feasible in most subjects. Measures of compliance correlate well with ultrasound-based values and correlate best when cross-sectional area change is used rather than derived diameter changes. If validated by further larger studies, 2-D phase contrast imaging with intra-sequence blood pressure monitoring and off-line radial artery tonometry may provide a useful tool in further assessment of patients with carotid atheroma.