Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia

At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.

Automata modeling for cognitive interference in users' relevance judgement

Quantum theory has recently been employed to further advance the theory of information retrieval (IR). A challenging research topic is to investigate the so called quantum-like interference in users’ relevance judgement process, where users are involved to judge the relevance degree of each document with respect to a given query. In this process, users’ relevance judgement for the current document is often interfered by the judgement for previous documents, due to the interference on users’ cognitive status. Research from cognitive science has demonstrated some initial evidence of quantum-like cognitive interference in human decision making, which underpins the user’s relevance judgement process. This motivates us to model such cognitive interference in the relevance judgement process, which in our belief will lead to a better modeling and explanation of user behaviors in relevance judgement process for IR and eventually lead to more user-centric IR models. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic automaton(PA) and quantum finite automaton (QFA), which are suitable to represent the transition of user judgement states, to dynamically model the cognitive interference when the user is judging a list of documents.

Modeling player-like behaviour for game Al design

The design of artificial intelligence in computer games is an important component of a player's game play experience. As games are becoming more life-like and interactive, the need for more realistic game AI will increase. This is particularly the case with respect to AI that simulates how human players act, behave and make decisions. The purpose of this research is to establish a model of player-like behavior that may be effectively used to inform the design of artificial intelligence to more accurately mimic a player's decision making process. The research uses a qualitative analysis of player opinions and reactions while playing a first person shooter video game, with recordings of their in game actions, speech and facial characteristics. The initial studies provide player data that has been used to design a model of how a player behaves.

Community protest groups' perceptions of environmental risks using social contagion theory

Local communities are vulnerable to the potential environmental risks associated with construction activity. Currently, little is understood about how perceptions of environmental risks are shaped and spread within a community. A better understanding of this process can help bridge the gap between developers and communities and bring about more sustainable development practices. This paper reports a research methodology which uses social contagion theory to investigate this process. The research adopts a single case study approach of a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The case study is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24 hour community picket in the New South Wales.

Smart Measures for Sustainable Outcomes: Integrated Considerations for Sustainable Refurbishment of Office Buildings

The increasing stock of aging office buildings will see a significant growth in retrofitting projects in Australian capital cities. Stakeholders of refitting works will also need to take on the sustainability challenge and realize tangible outcomes through project delivery. Traditionally, decision making for aged buildings, when facing the alternatives, is typically economically driven and on ad hoc basis. This leads to the tendency to either delay refitting for as long as possible thus causing building conditions to deteriorate, or simply demolish and rebuild with unjust financial burden. The technologies involved are often limited to typical strip-clean and repartition with dry walls and office cubicles. Changing business operational patterns, the efficiency of office space, and the demand on improved workplace environment, will need more innovative and intelligent approaches to refurbishing office buildings. For example, such projects may need to respond to political, social, environmental and financial implications. There is a need for the total consideration of buildings structural assessment, modeling of operating and maintenance costs, new architectural and engineering designs that maximise the utility of the existing structure and resulting productivity improvement, specific construction management procedures including procurement methods, work flow and scheduling and occupational health and safety. Recycling potential and conformance to codes may be other major issues. This paper introduces examples of Australian research projects which provided a more holistic approach to the decision making of refurbishing office space, using appropriate building technologies and products, assessment of residual service life, floor space optimisation and project procurement in order to bring about sustainable outcomes. The paper also discusses a specific case study on critical factors that influence key building components for these projects and issues for integrated decision support when dealing with the refurbishment, and indeed the “re-life”, of office buildings.

A study of environmental and management drivers of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in Australian agro-ecosystems

Australian climate, soils and agricultural management practices are significantly different from those of the northern hemisphere nations. Consequently, experimental data on greenhouse gas production from European and North American agricultural soils and its interpretation are unlikely to be directly applicable to Australian systems. A programme of studies of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture has been established that is designed to reduce uncertainty of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and provide outputs that will enable better on-farm management practices for reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, particularly nitrous oxide. The systems being examined and their locations are irrigated pasture (Kyabram Victoria), irrigated cotton (Narrabri, NSW), irrigated maize (Griffith, NSW), rain-fed wheat (Rutherglen, Victoria) and rain-fed wheat (Cunderdin, WA). The field studies include treatments with and without fertilizer addition, stubble burning versus stubble retention, conventional cultivation versus direct drilling and crop rotation to determine emission factors and treatment possibilities for best management options. The data to date suggest that nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizer, applied to irrigated dairy pastures and rain-fed winter wheat, appear much lower than the average of northern hemisphere grain and pasture studies. More variable emissions have been found in studies of irrigated cotton/vetch/wheat rotation and substantially higher emissions from irrigated maize.

Towards improving mission execution for autonomous gliders with an ocean model and Kalman filter

In this paper, we examine the use of a Kalman filter to aid in the mission planning process for autonomous gliders. Given a set of waypoints defining the planned mission and a prediction of the ocean currents from a regional ocean model, we present an approach to determine the best, constant, time interval at which the glider should surface to maintain a prescribed tracking error, and minimizing time on the ocean surface. We assume basic parameters for the execution of a given mission, and provide the results of the Kalman filter mission planning approach. These results are compared with previous executions of the given mission scenario.

Stability of hydrotalcites formed from Bayer refinery environmental control processes

Bauxite refinery residues (red mud) are derived from the Bayer process by the digestion of crushed bauxite in concentrated sodium hydroxide at elevated temperatures and pressures. This slurry residue, if untreated, is unsuitable for discharge directly into the environment and is usually stored in tailing dams. The liquid portion has the potential for discharge, but requires pre-treatment before this can occur. The seawater neutralisation treatment facilitates a significant reduction in pH and dissolved metal concentrations, through the precipitation of hydrotalcite-like compounds and some other Mg, Ca, and Al hydroxide and carbonate minerals. The hydrotalcite-like compounds, precipitated during seawater neutralisation, also remove a range of transition metals, oxy-anions and other anionic species through a combination of intercalation and adsorption reactions: smaller anions are intercalated into the hydrotalcite matrix, while larger molecules are adsorbed on the particle surfaces. A phenomenon known as ‘reversion’ can occur if the seawater neutralisation process is not properly controlled. Reversion causes an increase in the pH and dissolved impurity levels of the neutralised effluent, rendering it unsuitable for discharge. It is believed that slow dissolution of components of the red mud residue and compounds formed during the neutralisation process are responsible for reversion. This investigation looked at characterising natural hydrotalcite (Mg6Al2(OH)16(CO3)∙4H2O) and ‘Bayer’ hydrotalcite (synthesised using the seawater neutralisation process) using a variety of techniques including X-ray diffraction, infrared and Raman spectroscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis. This investigation showed that Bayer hydrotalcite is comprised of a mixture of 3:1 and 4:1 hydrotalcite structures and exhibited similar chemical characteristic to the 4:1 synthetic hydrotalcite. Hydrotalcite formed from the seawater neutralisation of Bauxite refinery residues has been found not to cause reversion. Other components in red mud were investigated to determine the cause of reversion and this investigation found three components that contributed to reversion: 1) tricalcium aluminate, 2) hydrocalumite and 3) calcium hydroxide. Increasing the amount of magnesium in the neutralisation process has been found to be successful in reducing reversion.

Context-aware methods for process modeling

Recent studies have started to explore context-awareness as a driver in the design of adaptable business processes. The emerging challenge of identifying and considering contextual drivers in the environment of a business process are well understood, however, typical methods used in business process modeling do not yet consider this additional contextual information in their process designs. In this chapter, we describe our research towards innovative and advanced process modeling methods that include mechanisms to incorporate relevant contextual drivers and their impacts on business processes in process design models. We report on our ongoing work with an Australian insurance provider and describe the design science we employed to develop these innovative and useful artifacts as part of a context-aware method framework. We discuss the utility of these artifacts in an application in the claims handling process at the case organization.

Interfacing Jack and anybody : towards anthropometric musculoskeletal digital human modeling

Virtual prototyping emerges as a new technology to replace existing physical prototypes for product evaluation, which are costly and time consuming to manufacture. Virtualization technology allows engineers and ergonomists to perform virtual builds and different ergonomic analyses on a product. Digital Human Modelling (DHM) software packages such as Siemens Jack, often integrate with CAD systems to provide a virtual environment which allows investigation of operator and product compatibility. Although the integration between DHM and CAD systems allows for the ergonomic analysis of anthropometric design, human musculoskeletal, multi-body modelling software packages such as the AnyBody Modelling System (AMS) are required to support physiologic design. They provide muscular force analysis, estimate human musculoskeletal strain and help address human comfort assessment. However, the independent characteristics of the modelling systems Jack and AMS constrain engineers and ergonomists in conducting a complete ergonomic analysis. AMS is a stand alone programming system without a capability to integrate into CAD environments. Jack is providing CAD integrated human-in-the-loop capability, but without considering musculoskeletal activity. Consequently, engineers and ergonomists need to perform many redundant tasks during product and process design. Besides, the existing biomechanical model in AMS uses a simplified estimation of body proportions, based on a segment mass ratio derived scaling approach. This is insufficient to represent user populations anthropometrically correct in AMS. In addition, sub-models are derived from different sources of morphologic data and are therefore anthropometrically inconsistent. Therefore, an interface between the biomechanical AMS and the virtual human model Jack was developed to integrate a musculoskeletal simulation with Jack posture modeling. This interface provides direct data exchange between the two man-models, based on a consistent data structure and common body model. The study assesses kinematic and biomechanical model characteristics of Jack and AMS, and defines an appropriate biomechanical model. The information content for interfacing the two systems is defined and a protocol is identified. The interface program is developed and implemented through Tcl and Jack-script(Python), and interacts with the AMS console application to operate AMS procedures.

Text mining and probabilistic language modeling for online review spam detecting

In the era of Web 2.0, huge volumes of consumer reviews are posted to the Internet every day. Manual approaches to detecting and analyzing fake reviews (i.e., spam) are not practical due to the problem of information overload. However, the design and development of automated methods of detecting fake reviews is a challenging research problem. The main reason is that fake reviews are specifically composed to mislead readers, so they may appear the same as legitimate reviews (i.e., ham). As a result, discriminatory features that would enable individual reviews to be classified as spam or ham may not be available. Guided by the design science research methodology, the main contribution of this study is the design and instantiation of novel computational models for detecting fake reviews. In particular, a novel text mining model is developed and integrated into a semantic language model for the detection of untruthful reviews. The models are then evaluated based on a real-world dataset collected from amazon.com. The results of our experiments confirm that the proposed models outperform other well-known baseline models in detecting fake reviews. To the best of our knowledge, the work discussed in this article represents the first successful attempt to apply text mining methods and semantic language models to the detection of fake consumer reviews. A managerial implication of our research is that firms can apply our design artifacts to monitor online consumer reviews to develop effective marketing or product design strategies based on genuine consumer feedback posted to the Internet.

Application of Geographic Modeling Techniques to Quantify Spatial Access to Health Services Before and After an Acute Cardiac Event: The Cardiac ARIA Project

Background: Access to cardiac services is essential for appropriate implementation of evidence-based therapies to improve outcomes. The Cardiac Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia (Cardiac ARIA) aimed to derive an objective, geographic measure reflecting access to cardiac services. Methods: An expert panel defined an evidence-based clinical pathway. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), a numeric/alpha index was developed at two points along the continuum of care. The acute category (numeric) measured the time from the emergency call to arrival at an appropriate medical facility via road ambulance. The aftercare category (alpha) measured access to four basic services (family doctor, pharmacy, cardiac rehabilitation, and pathology services) when a patient returned to their community. Results: The numeric index ranged from 1 (access to principle referral center with cardiac catheterization service ≤ 1 hour) to 8 (no ambulance service, > 3 hours to medical facility, air transport required). The alphabetic index ranged from A (all 4 services available within 1 hour drive-time) to E (no services available within 1 hour). 13.9 million (71%) Australians resided within Cardiac ARIA 1A locations (hospital with cardiac catheterization laboratory and all aftercare within 1 hour). Those outside Cardiac 1A were over-represented by people aged over 65 years (32%) and Indigenous people (60%). Conclusion: The Cardiac ARIA index demonstrated substantial inequity in access to cardiac services in Australia. This methodology can be used to inform cardiology health service planning and the methodology could be applied to other common disease states within other regions of the world.

Mapping of shallow coastal groundwaters, their hydrology and environmental geochemistry : Pumicestone catchment, Southeast Queensland

Blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium majuscula Lyngbya in the coastal waters of southeast Queensland have caused adverse impacts on both environmental health and human health, and on local economies such as fishing and tourism. A number of studies have confirmed that the main limiting nutrients (“nutrients of concern”) that contribute to these blooms area Fe, DOC, N, P and also pH. This study is conducted to establish the distribution of these parameters in a typical southeast Queensland coastal setting. The study maps the geochemistry of shallow groundwater in the mainland Pumicestone catchment with an emphasis on the nutrients of concern to understand how these nutrients relate to aquifer materials, landuse and anthropogenic activities. The results of the study form a GIS information layer which will be incorporated into a larger GIS model being produced by Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) to support landuse management to avoid/minimize blooms of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, and other similar settings. A total of 38 boreholes were established in the mainland Pumicestone region and four sampling rounds of groundwater carried out in both dry and wet conditions. These groundwater samples were measured in the field for physico-chemical parameters, and in the laboratory analyses for the nutrients of concern, and other major and minor ions. Aquifer materials were confirmed using the Geological Survey of Queensland digital geology map, and geomaterials were assigned to seven categories which are A (sands), B (silts, sandy silts), C (estuarine mud, silts), D (humid soils), E (alluvium), F (sandstone) and G (other bedrock). The results of the water chemistry were examined by use of the software package AquaChem/AqQA, and divided into six groundwater groups, based on groundwater chemical types and location of boreholes. The type of aquifer material and location, and proximity to waterways was found to be important because they affected physico-chemical properties and concentrations of nutrients of concern and dissolved ions. The analytical results showed that iron concentrations of shallow groundwaters were high due to acid sulfate soils, and also mud and silt, but were lower in sand materials. DOC concentrations of these shallow groundwaters in the sand material were high probably due to rapid infiltration. In addition, DOC concentrations in some boreholes were high because they were installed in organic rich wetlands. The pH values of boreholes were from acidic to near neutral; some boreholes with pH values were low (< 4), showing acid sulfate soils in these boreholes. Concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus of groundwaters were generally low, and the main causes of elevated concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus are largely due to animal and human wastes and tend to be found in localized source areas. Comparison of the relative percentage of nitrogen species (NH3/NH4< Org-N, NO3-N and NO2-N) demonstrated that they could be related to sources such as animal waste, residential and agricultural fertilizers, forest and vegetation, mixed residents and farms, and variable setting and vegetation covers. Total concentrations of dissolved ions in sampling round 3 (dry period) were higher than those in sampling round 2 (wet period) due to both evaporation of groundwater in the dry period and the dilution of rainfall in the wet period. This showed that the highest concentrations of nutrients of concern were due to acid sulfate soils, aquifer materials, landuse and anthropogenic activities and were typically in aquifer materials of E (alluvium) and C (estuarine muds) and locations of Burpengary, Caboolture, and Glass Mountain catchments.

Regulating coal seam gas in Queensland : lessons in an adaptive environmental management approach?

The current regulatory approach to coal seam gas projects in Queensland is based on the philosophy of adaptive environmental management. This method of “learning by doing” is implemented in Queensland primarily through the imposition of layered monitoring and reporting duties on the coal seam gas operator alongside obligations to compensate and “make good” harm caused. The purpose of this article is to provide a critical review of the Queensland regulatory approach to the approval and minimisation of adverse impacts from coal seam gas activities. Following an overview of the hallmarks of an effective adaptive management approach, this article begins by addressing the mosaic of approval processes and impact assessment regimes that may apply to coal seam gas projects. This includes recent Strategic Cropping Land reforms. This article then turns to consider the preconditions for land access in Queensland and the emerging issues for landholders relating to the negotiation of access and compensation agreements. This article then undertakes a critical review of the environmental duties imposed on coal seam gas operators relating to hydraulic fracturing, well head leaks, groundwater management and the disposal and beneficial use of produced water. Finally, conclusions are drawn regarding the overall effectiveness of the Queensland framework and the lessons that may be drawn from Queensland’s adaptive environmental management approach.

Environmental reporting and its relation to corporate environmental performance

This study examines how both the level and the nature of environmental information voluntarily disclosed by Australian firms relate to their underlying environmental performance. Disclosure is scored using an index developed by Clarkson et al. (2008) based on Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) Guidelines and the environmental performance measure is based on emission data available from the National Pollutant Inventory (NPI). The sample consists of 51 firms that reported to the NPI in both 2002 and 2006. The findings are as follows. First, descriptive statistics indicate that while there was modest improvement in disclosure between 2002 and 2006, the highest disclosure score obtained was just slightly in excess of 50% of the maximum available based on the GRI Guidelines. Second, the results consistently indicate that not only do firms with a higher pollution propensity disclose more environmental information; they also rely on disclosures that the GRI views as inherently more objective and verifiable. Taken together, these results suggest that concerns regarding the reliability of voluntary environmental disclosures in the Australian context remain valid and thereby potentially signal a need for both enhanced mandatory reporting requirements and improved enforcement. In this regard, our study also informs regulatory policy on mandatory disclosures of environmental performance.