Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the "ideal" algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

Learning the Kernel Matrix with Semi-Definite Programming

Kernel-based learning algorithms work by embedding the data into a Euclidean space, and then searching for linear relations among the embedded data points. The embedding is performed implicitly, by specifying the inner products between each pair of points in the embedding space. This information is contained in the so-called kernel matrix, a symmetric and positive definite matrix that encodes the relative positions of all points. Specifying this matrix amounts to specifying the geometry of the embedding space and inducing a notion of similarity in the input space -- classical model selection problems in machine learning. In this paper we show how the kernel matrix can be learned from data via semi-definite programming (SDP) techniques. When applied to a kernel matrix associated with both training and test data this gives a powerful transductive algorithm -- using the labelled part of the data one can learn an embedding also for the unlabelled part. The similarity between test points is inferred from training points and their labels. Importantly, these learning problems are convex, so we obtain a method for learning both the model class and the function without local minima. Furthermore, this approach leads directly to a convex method to learn the 2-norm soft margin parameter in support vector machines, solving another important open problem. Finally, the novel approach presented in the paper is supported by positive empirical results.

Krylov subspace approximations for the exponential Euler method: Error estimates and the harmonic Ritz approximant

We study Krylov subspace methods for approximating the matrix-function vector product φ(tA)b where φ(z) = [exp(z) - 1]/z. This product arises in the numerical integration of large stiff systems of differential equations by the Exponential Euler Method, where A is the Jacobian matrix of the system. Recently, this method has found application in the simulation of transport phenomena in porous media within mathematical models of wood drying and groundwater flow. We develop an a posteriori upper bound on the Krylov subspace approximation error and provide a new interpretation of a previously published error estimate. This leads to an alternative Krylov approximation to φ(tA)b, the so-called Harmonic Ritz approximant, which we find does not exhibit oscillatory behaviour of the residual error.

Robust designs for Poisson regression models

We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.

Stochastic simulation of chemical reactions in spatially complex media

Discrete stochastic simulations, via techniques such as the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are low numbers of certain molecular species. However, an important constraint is the assumption of well-mixedness and homogeneity. In this paper, we show how to use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate an anomalous diffusion parameter that encapsulates the crowdedness of the spatial environment. We then use this parameter to replace the rate constants of bimolecular reactions by a time-dependent power law to produce an SSA valid in cases where anomalous diffusion occurs or the system is not well-mixed (ASSA). Simulations then show that ASSA can successfully predict the temporal dynamics of chemical kinetics in a spatially constrained environment.