A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.

Estimating the potential impact of entry fees for marine parks on dive tourism in South East Asia

Marine reserves are increasingly being established as a mechanism to protect marine biodiversity and sensitive habitats. As well as providing conservation benefits, marine reserves provide benefits to recreational scuba divers who dive within the reserve, as well as to recreational and commercial fishers outside the reserve through spill-over effects. To ensure benefits are being realised, management of marine reserves requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance. These are not costless, and many marine reserve managers impose an entry fee. In some countries, dive tourism is major income source to coastal industries, and a concern is that high entry fees may dissuade divers. In this paper, the price elasticity of demand for dive tourism in three countries in South East Asia – Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia – is estimated using a travel-cost model. From the model, the total non-market use value associated with diving in the area is estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 billion a year. The price elasticity of demand in the region is highly inelastic, such that increasing the cost of diving through a management levy would have little impact on total diver numbers.

Validity of currently used cutoff values of body mass index as a measure of obesity in Sri Lankan children

The aim of the study was to determine the reliability of body mass index based (BMI) cutoff values in diagnosing obesity among Sri Lankan children. Height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) in 282 children were measured. Total body water was determined by deuterium dilution and fat mass (FM) derived using age and gender specific constants. A percentage FM of 30% for girls and 25% for boys were considered as cutoff levels for obesity. Two hundred and eighty two children (M/F: 158/124) were studied and 99 (80%) girls and 72 (45.5%) boys were obese based on % body fat. Eight (6.4%) girls and nine (5.7%) boys were obese based on International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) cutoff values. Percentage FM and WC centile charts were able to diagnose a significant proportion of children as true obese children. The FM and BMI were closely associated in both girls (r = 0.82, p < 0.001) and boys (r = 0.87, p < 0.001). Percentage FM and BMI had a very low but significant association; girls (r = 0.32, p < 0.001) and boys (r = 0.68, p < 0.001). FM had a significant association with WC and HC. BMI based cutoff values had a specificity of 100% but a very low sensitivity, varying between 8% and 23.6%. BMI is a poor indicator of the percentage fat and the commonly used cutoff values were not sensitive to detect cases of childhood obesity in Sri Lankan children.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.

Submission to House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into Home Ownership

This paper empirically examines the effect of current tax policy on home ownership, specifically looking at how developer contributions impact house prices. Developer contributions are a commonly used mechanism for local governments to pay for new urban infrastructure. This research applies a hedonic house price model to 4,699 new and 25,053 existing house sales in Brisbane from 2005 to 2011. The findings of is research are consistent with international studies that support the proposition that developer contributions are over passed. This study has provided evidence that suggest developer contributions are over passed to both new and existing homes in the order of around 400%. These findings suggest that developer contributions are thus a significant contributor to increasing house prices, reduced housing supply and are thus an inefficient and inequitable tax. By testing this effect on both new and existing homes, this research provides evidence in support of the proposition that not only are developer contributions over passed to new home buyers but also to buyers of existing homes. Thus the price inflationary effect of these developer contributions are being felt by all home buyers across the community, resulting in increased mortgage repayments of close to $1,000 per month in Australia. This is the first study to empirically examine the impact of developer contributions on house prices in Australia. These results are important as they inform governments on the outcomes of current tax policy on home ownership, providing the first evidence of its kind in Australia. This is an important contribution to the tax reform agenda in Australia.

Submission to the Senate Economics References Committee Inquiry into affordable housing 20 August 2014: De-risking development of medium density housing to improve housing affordability and boost supply

This submission addresses the problem of housing price inflation, the chronic under-supply of new housing stock, and the resultant decline in housing affordability for low and middle income households. It specifically focusses on the supply of medium density housing (multi-unit development) in Melbourne, although we believe that the observations made about housing in supply in Melbourne are relevant in other urban centres and to other types of housing supply. In terms of medium density housing (MDH) our concern also extends to the poor quality and design. Why the market tends to deliver generic apartments of poor quality and design which are uncompetitive with lower density housing and amenity despite planning objectives, and how this apparently intractable problem can be overcome is the topic of this submission...

Flow pattern analysis in a highly stenotic patient-specific carotid bifurcation model using a turbulence model

The aim of this study is to investigate the blood flow pattern in carotid bifurcation with a high degree of luminal stenosis, combining in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A newly developed two-equation transitional model was employed to evaluate wall shear stress (WSS) distribution and pressure drop across the stenosis, which are closely related to plaque vulnerability. A patient with an 80% left carotid stenosis was imaged using high resolution MRI, from which a patient-specific geometry was reconstructed and flow boundary conditions were acquired for CFD simulation. A transitional model was implemented to investigate the flow velocity and WSS distribution in the patient-specific model. The peak time-averaged WSS value of approximately 73Pa was predicted by the transitional flow model, and the regions of high WSS occurred at the throat of the stenosis. High oscillatory shear index values up to 0.50 were present in a helical flow pattern from the outer wall of the internal carotid artery immediately after the throat. This study shows the potential suitability of a transitional turbulent flow model in capturing the flow phenomena in severely stenosed carotid arteries using patient-specific MRI data and provides the basis for further investigation of the links between haemodynamic variables and plaque vulnerability. It may be useful in the future for risk assessment of patients with carotid disease.

Normalized wall index specific and MRI-based stress analysis of atherosclerotic carotid plaques: A study comparing acutely symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

Background: Biomechanical stresses play an important role in determining plaque stability. Quantification of these simulated stresses can be potentially used to assess plaque vulnerability and differentiate different patient groups. Methods and Results: 54 asymptomatic and 45 acutely symptomatic patients underwent in vivo multicontrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the carotid arteries. Plaque geometry used for finite element analysis was derived from in vivo MRI at the sites of maximum and minimum plaque burden. In total, 198 slices were used for the computational simulations. A pre-shrink technique was used to refine the simulation. Maximum principle stress at the vulnerable plaque sites (ie, critical stress) was extracted for the selected slices and a comparison was performed between the 2 groups. Critical stress in the slice with maximum plaque burden is significantly higher in acutely symptomatic patients as compared to asymptomatic patients (median, inter quartile range: 198.0 kPa (119.8-359.0 kPa) vs 138.4 kPa (83.8-242.6 kPa), P=0.04). No significant difference was found in the slice with minimum plaque burden between the 2 groups (196.7 kPa (133.3-282.7 kPa) vs 182.4 kPa (117.2-310.6 kPa), P=0.82). Conclusions: Acutely symptomatic carotid plaques have significantly high biomechanical stresses than asymptomatic plaques. This might be potentially useful for establishing a biomechanical risk stratification criteria based on plaque burden in future studies.

Developing a new index for comparing road safety maturity: Case study of the ASEAN community

As part of the development of the ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy, a new index for measuring road safety maturity (RSM) was constructed from numerical weightings given to measurable factors presented for each of the pillars that guide national road safety plans and activities in WHO Global Road Safety Report 2013: road safety management, safer road and mobility, safer vehicles, safer road users and post-crash response. The index is based on both a content analysis approach and a binary methodology (report/no report) including measures which have been considered pertinent and not redundant. For instance, the use of random breath testing and/or police checkpoints in the national drink driving law are combined in the enforcement index. The value of the index per pillar ranges from 0 to 100%, taking into account whether there is total, partial or non-implementation of certain actions. In addition, when possible, the self-rated level of enforcement is included. The overall ratings for the I 0 ASEAN countries and the scores for each of the pillars are presented in the paper. The extent to which the RSM index is a valid indicator of road safety performance is also discussed.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10−8), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ~2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

FTO genotype is associated with phenotypic variability of body mass index

There is evidence across several species for genetic control of phenotypic variation of complex traits1, 2, 3, 4, such that the variance among phenotypes is genotype dependent. Understanding genetic control of variability is important in evolutionary biology, agricultural selection programmes and human medicine, yet for complex traits, no individual genetic variants associated with variance, as opposed to the mean, have been identified. Here we perform a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of phenotypic variation using ~170,000 samples on height and body mass index (BMI) in human populations. We report evidence that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs7202116 at the FTO gene locus, which is known to be associated with obesity (as measured by mean BMI for each rs7202116 genotype)5, 6, 7, is also associated with phenotypic variability. We show that the results are not due to scale effects or other artefacts, and find no other experiment-wise significant evidence for effects on variability, either at loci other than FTO for BMI or at any locus for height. The difference in variance for BMI among individuals with opposite homozygous genotypes at the FTO locus is approximately 7%, corresponding to a difference of ~0.5 kilograms in the standard deviation of weight. Our results indicate that genetic variants can be discovered that are associated with variability, and that between-person variability in obesity can partly be explained by the genotype at the FTO locus. The results are consistent with reported FTO by environment interactions for BMI8, possibly mediated by DNA methylation9, 10. Our BMI results for other SNPs and our height results for all SNPs suggest that most genetic variants, including those that influence mean height or mean BMI, are not associated with phenotypic variance, or that their effects on variability are too small to detect even with samples sizes greater than 100,000.

Association analyses of 249,796 individuals reveal 18 new loci associated with body mass index

Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and approximately 2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 x 10(-)(8)), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.

Building an understanding of law: Engaging property economics students by using technology

It is assumed university students engage with technology as easily for their university studies as they do socially. However, prior research reflects the difficulties that non-law students face in engaging with legal materials. The purpose of this research was to determine how technology use impacts upon non-law students’ engagement with legal materials. The project explored inter alia the extent to which first year non-law students engaged with technology for their studies and in particular with legal materials and databases. The project was undertaken during semester 2, 2014 in a legal service unit delivered to a mixed cohort, which included construction management, property economics, planning and quantity surveying students. Actual technology use and familiarity was tested by means of an in class survey delivered in the Week 2 lecture. Use and familiarity was then retested at the end of semester in the Week 13 lecture, with adjustments made in lecture delivery and materials in-between.

Lens shape and refractive index distribution in type 1 diabetes

Purpose: To compare lens dimensions and refractive index distributions in type 1 diabetes and age-matched control groups. Methods: There were 17 participants with type 1 diabetes, consisting of two subgroups (7 young [23 ± 4 years] and 10 older [54 ± 4 years] participants), with 23 controls (13 young, 24 ± 4 years; 10 older, 55 ± 4 years). For each participant, one eye was tested with relaxed accommodation. A 3T clinical magnetic resonance imaging scanner was used to image the eye, employing a multiple spin echo (MSE) sequence to determine lens dimensions and refractive index profiles along the equatorial and axial directions. Results: The diabetes group had significantly smaller lens equatorial diameters and larger lens axial thicknesses than the control group (diameter mean ± 95% confidence interval [CI]: diabetes group 8.65 ± 0.26 mm, control group 9.42 ± 0.18 mm; axial thickness: diabetes group 4.33 ± 0.30 mm, control group 3.80 ± 0.14 mm). These differences were also significant within each age group. The older group had significantly greater axial thickness than the young group (older group 4.35 ± 0.26 mm, young group 3.70 ± 0.25 mm). Center refractive indices of diabetes and control groups were not significantly different. There were some statistically significant differences between the refractive index fitting parameters of young and older groups, but not between diabetes and control groups of the same age. Conclusions: Smaller lens diameters occurred in the diabetes groups than in the age-matched control groups. Differences in refractive index distribution between persons with and without diabetes are too small to have important effects on instruments measuring axial thickness.