Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Dynamic changes in high and low mammographic density human breast tissues maintained in murine tissue engineering chambers during various murine peripartum states and over time

Mammographic density (MD) is a strong heritable risk factor for breast cancer, and may decrease with increasing parity. However, the biomolecular basis for MD-associated breast cancer remains unclear, and systemic hormonal effects on MD-associated risk is poorly understood. This study assessed the effect of murine peripartum states on high and low MD tissue maintained in a xenograft model of human MD. Method High and low MD human breast tissues were precisely sampled under radiographic guidance from prophylactic mastectomy specimens of women. The high and low MD tissues were maintained in separate vascularised biochambers in nulliparous or pregnant SCID mice for 4 weeks, or mice undergoing postpartum involution or lactation for three additional weeks. High and low MD biochamber material was harvested for histologic and radiographic comparisons during various murine peripartum states. High and low MD biochamber tissues in nulliparous mice were harvested at different timepoints for histologic and radiographic comparisons. Results High MD biochamber tissues had decreased stromal (p = 0.0027), increased adipose (p = 0.0003) and a trend to increased glandular tissue areas (p = 0.076) after murine postpartum involution. Stromal areas decreased (p = 0.042), while glandular (p = 0.001) and adipose areas (p = 0.009) increased in high MD biochamber tissues during lactation. A difference in radiographic density was observed in high (p = 0.0021) or low MD biochamber tissues (p = 0.004) between nulliparous, pregnant and involution groups. No differences in tissue composition were observed in high or low MD biochamber tissues maintained for different durations, although radiographic density increased over time. Conclusion High MD biochamber tissues had measurable histologic changes after postpartum involution or lactation. Alterations in radiographic density occurred in biochamber tissues between different peripartum states and over time. These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the human MD xenograft model, providing a platform for studying the biomolecular basis of MD-associated cancer risk. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Changes in ocular biometrics and refraction during near work in downward gaze over time

PURPOSE To investigate changes in the characteristics of the corneal optics, total optics, anterior biometrics and axial length of the eye during a near task, in downward gaze, over 10 min. METHODS Ten emmetropes (mean - 0.14 ± 0.24 DS) and 10 myopes (mean - 2.26 ± 1.42 DS) aged from 18 to 30 years were recruited. To measure ocular biometrics and corneal topography in downward gaze, an optical biometer (Lenstar LS900) and a rotating Scheimpflug camera (Pentacam HR) were inclined on a custom built, height and tilt adjustable table. The total optics of the eye were measured in downward gaze with binocular fixation using a modified Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. Initially, subjects performed a distance viewing task at primary gaze for 10 min to provide a "wash-out" period for prior visual tasks. A distance task (watching video at 6 m) in downward gaze (25°) and a near task (watching video on a portable LCD screen with 2.5 D accommodation demand) in primary gaze and 25°downward gaze were then carried out, each for 10 min in a randomized order. During measurements, in dichoptic view, a Maltese cross was fixated with the right (untested) eye and the instrument’s fixation target was fixated with the subject’s tested left eye. Immediately after (0 min), 5 and 10 min from the commencement of each trial, measurements of ocular parameters were acquired in downward gaze. RESULTS Axial length exhibited a significant increase with downward gaze and accommodation over time (p<0.05). The greatest axial elongation was observed in downward gaze with 2.5 D accommodation after 10 min (mean change from baseline 23±3 µm). Downward gaze also caused greater changes in anterior chamber depth (ACD) and lens thickness (LT) with accommodation (ACD mean change -163±12µm at 10 min; LT mean change 173±17 µm at 10 min) compared to primary gaze with accommodation (ACD mean change -138±12µm at 10 min; LT mean change 131±15 µm at 10 min). Both corneal power and total ocular power changed by a small but significant amount with downward gaze (p<0.05), resulting in a myopic shift (~0.10 D) in the spherical power of the eye compared with primary gaze. CONCLUSION The axial length, anterior biometrics and ocular refraction change significantly with accommodation in downward gaze as a function of time. These findings provide new insights into the optical and bio-mechanical changes of the eye during typical near tasks.

Using informative priors in the estimation of mixtures over time with application to aerosol particle size distributions

The issue of using informative priors for estimation of mixtures at multiple time points is examined. Several different informative priors and an independent prior are compared using samples of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. Measurements of aerosol PSDs refer to the concentration of aerosol particles in terms of their size, which is typically multimodal in nature and collected at frequent time intervals. The use of informative priors is found to better identify component parameters at each time point and more clearly establish patterns in the parameters over time. Some caveats to this finding are discussed.

Destination Brand Performance Measurement Over Time

With increasing investments being made in brand development by destination marketing organisations (DMO) since the 1990s, including rebranding and repositioning, more research is necessary to enhance understanding of how to effectively monitor destination brand performance over time. This chapter summarises key findings from a study of brand performance of a competitive set of destinations, in their most important market, between 2003 and 2012. Brand performance was measured from the perspective of consumer perceptions, based on the concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE). The results indicated almost no change in perceptions of the five destinations over the 10-year period. Due to the commonality of challenges faced by DMOs worldwide, it is suggested the CBBE hierarchy provides destination marketers with a practical tool for evaluating brand performance over time; in terms of measures of effectiveness of past marketing communications, as well as indicators of future performance.

Non-market use and non-use values for preserving ecosystem services over time : a choice experiment application to coral reef ecosystems in New Caledonia

Non-use values (i.e. economic values assigned by individuals to ecosystem goods and services unrelated to current or future uses) provide one of the most compelling incentives for the preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Assessing the non-use values of non-users is relatively straightforward using stated preference methods, but the standard approaches for estimating non-use values of users (stated decomposition) have substantial shortcomings which undermine the robustness of their results. In this paper, we propose a pragmatic interpretation of non-use values to derive estimates that capture their main dimensions, based on the identification of a willingness to pay for ecosystem protection beyond one's expected life. We empirically test our approach using a choice experiment conducted on coral reef ecosystem protection in two coastal areas in New Caledonia with different institutional, cultural, environmental and socio-economic contexts. We compute individual willingness to pay estimates, and derive individual non-use value estimates using our interpretation. We find that, a minima, estimates of non-use values may comprise between 25 and 40% of the mean willingness to pay for ecosystem preservation, less than has been found in most studies.

Destination brand performance measurement over time: Tracking consumer perceptions of a competitive set of destinations over a 10 year period

There has been a paucity of research published in relation to the temporal aspect of destination image change over time. Given increasing investments in destination branding, research is needed to enhance understanding of how to monitor destination brand performance, of which destination image is the core construct, over time. This article reports the results of four studies tracking brand performance of a competitive set of five destinations, between 2003 and 2012. Results indicate minimal changes in perceptions held of the five destinations of interest over the 10 years, supporting the assertion of Gartner (1986) and Gartner and Hunt (1987) that destination image change will only occur slowly over time. While undertaken in Australia, the research approach provides DMOs in other parts of the world with a practical tool for evaluating brand performance over time; in terms of measures of effectiveness of past marketing communications, and indicators of future performance.

Mandatory reporting laws: Their origin, nature, and development over time

Dozens of countries have enacted mandatory reporting laws in various forms to respond to child abuse and neglect. Other countries including England are currently considering whether to introduce them, and if so in what form. It is important for policymakers, practitioners and researchers to understand these laws’ background, nature and purpose. This chapter outlines the origins and provenance of the first mandatory reporting laws; discusses their nature; describes major developments over time; and identifies some major effects and their consequences. It is shown that the laws are a heterogeneous, organic, flexible mechanism enabling social intervention where otherwise such intervention is severely compromised or impossible. Their primary function is to comprise but one aspect of a multifaceted child welfare system by identifying cases of serious maltreatment which would not otherwise come to light: sexual abuse and severe physical abuse are paradigm examples. The essential role of these laws is therefore primarily a tertiary aspect of a public health model, rather than a purely preventative strategy. Mandatory reporting laws are made by each specific jurisdiction according to its preferred design and function within its socio-political system. There is a spectrum of different approaches from which a jurisdiction can choose: they can apply to a broad or a narrow range of reporter groups, a broad or a narrow range of types of maltreatment, and a broad or a narrow range of instances where abuse or neglect occurs.

Assessing acculturation over time: A four-year prospective study of Asian American young adults

Acculturation is commonly defined as a dynamic and multidimensional process in which individuals and groups change over time when coming into contact with another culture. Despite the emphasis on acculturation as a process of change over time, few researchers have directly assessed this hypothesis. The current study first identifies and then examines "stable" and "dynamic" dimensions of acculturation within a 4-year prospective study of 433 first- and second-generation Chinese- and Korean-American college students. Separate growth model analyses revealed significant linear change for first-generation students toward greater U.S. acculturation. In comparison, tests of linear and quadratic change for second-generation students were not significant. When stratifying by gender, acculturation increased for women but there was no significant change in acculturation for men. While all students reported increases in alcohol consumption over the study period, changes in acculturation predicted changes in alcohol consumption only for women. Chinese men showed greater increases in alcohol consumption than Korean men but there was no effect for ethnicity among women. There was significant individual variability in the models, which underscores the importance of examining change prospectively through within and between person analyses. The findings highlight the importance of examining acculturation changes over time for different migrant groups with implications for further development of acculturation measures, research methodologies, and health interventions. More prospective research designs of acculturation are needed to examine changes in health behavior and overall adaptation across migrant groups at varying stages of development.

Individual difference predictors of change in career adaptability over time

Career adaptability is a psychosocial construct that reflects individuals' resources for managing career tasks and challenges. This study investigated the effects of demographic characteristics and three sets of individual difference variables (Big Five personality traits, core self-evaluations, and temporal focus) on changes over time in career adaptability and its dimensions (concern, control, curiosity, and confidence). Data came from 659 full-time employees in Australia who participated in two measurement waves six months apart. Results showed that age and future temporal focus predicted change in overall career adaptability. In addition, age, education, extraversion, neuroticism, openness to experience, core self-evaluations, and future temporal focus differentially predicted change over time in one or more of the four career adaptability dimensions. While the lagged effects found in this study were generally small, the findings suggest that certain individual difference characteristics predispose employees to experience change in career adaptability over time.

Evaluating the specificity of community injury hospitalization data over time

This study identified the areas of poor specificity in national injury hospitalization data and the areas of improvement and deterioration in specificity over time. A descriptive analysis of ten years of national hospital discharge data for Australia from July 2002-June 2012 was performed. Proportions and percentage change of defined/undefined codes over time was examined. At the intent block level, accidents and assault were the most poorly defined with over 11% undefined in each block. The mechanism blocks for accidents showed a significant deterioration in specificity over time with up to 20% more undefined codes in some mechanisms. Place and activity were poorly defined at the broad block level (43% and 72% undefined respectively). Private hospitals and hospitals in very remote locations recorded the highest proportion of undefined codes. Those aged over 60 years and females had the higher proportion of undefined code usage. This study has identified significant, and worsening, deficiencies in the specificity of coded injury data in several areas. Focal attention is needed to improve the quality of injury data, especially on those identified in this study, to provide the evidence base needed to address the significant burden of injury in the Australian community.

Perceptions of destinations don’t change much over time

One of the most popular topics in tourism research is destination image. That is, measuring consumers’ perceptions of a destination. The importance of the topic is a no brainer given travellers are spoilt by choice of destinations, and that the images they hold of a place are as important as the tangible tourism features. This is underpinned by the old adage perception is reality, a theory promoted by two academics back in 1928 who proposed “what people believe to be true will be real in its consequences”. So, every place marketer knows consumer perceptions play a major role in the competitiveness of their destination.

Contemporaneous correlations within individuals in an automated web-based walking program (Walk@Work) over a six week period (three phases) of time

Introduction: Participants may respond to phases of a workplace walking program at different rates. This study evaluated the factors that contribute to the number of steps through phases of the program. The intervention was automated through a web-based program designed to increase workday walking. Methods: The study reviewed independent variable influences throughout phases I–III. A convenience sample of university workers (n=56; 43.6±1.7 years; BMI 27.44±.2.15 kg/m2; 48 female) were recruited at worksites in Australia. These workers were given a pedometer (Yamax SW 200) and access to the website program. For analyses, step counts entered by workers into the website were downloaded and mean workday steps were compared using a seemingly unrelated regression. This model was employed to capture the contemporaneous correlation within individuals in the study across observed time periods. Results: The model predicts that the 36 subjects with complete information took an average 7460 steps in the baseline two week period. After phase I, statistically significance increases in steps (from baseline) were explained by age, working status (full or part time), occupation (academic or professional), and self reported public transport (PT) use (marginally significant). Full time workers walked more than part time workers by about 440 steps, professionals walked about 300 steps more than academics, and PT users walked about 400 steps more than non-PT users. The ability to differentiate steps after two weeks among participants suggests a differential affect of the program after only two weeks. On average participants increased steps from week two to four by about 525 steps, but regular auto users had nearly 750 steps less than non-auto users at week four. The effect of age was diminished in the 4th week of observation and accounted for 34 steps per year of age. In phase III, discriminating between participants became more difficult, with only age effects differentiating their increase over baseline. The marginal effect of age by phase III compared to phase I, increased from 36 to 50, suggesting a 14 step per year increase from the 2nd to 6th week. Discussion: The findings suggest that participants responded to the program at different rates, with uniformity of effect achieved by the 6th week. Participants increased steps, however a tapering off occurred over time. Age played the most consistent role in predicting steps over the program. PT use was associated with increased step counts, while Auto use was associated with decreased step counts.

A time-variant medical data trustworthiness assessment model

Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems are being introduced to overcome the limitations associated with paper-based and isolated Electronic Medical Record (EMR) systems. This is accomplished by aggregating medical data and consolidating them in one digital repository. Though an EHR system provides obvious functional benefits, there is a growing concern about the privacy and reliability (trustworthiness) of Electronic Health Records. Security requirements such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability can be satisfied by traditional hard security mechanisms. However, measuring data trustworthiness from the perspective of data entry is an issue that cannot be solved with traditional mechanisms, especially since degrees of trust change over time. In this paper, we introduce a Time-variant Medical Data Trustworthiness (TMDT) assessment model to evaluate the trustworthiness of medical data by evaluating the trustworthiness of its sources, namely the healthcare organisation where the data was created and the medical practitioner who diagnosed the patient and authorised entry of this data into the patient’s medical record, with respect to a certain period of time. The result can then be used by the EHR system to manipulate health record metadata to alert medical practitioners relying on the information to possible reliability problems.

Time series analysis of a Web search engine transaction log

In this paper, we use time series analysis to evaluate predictive scenarios using search engine transactional logs. Our goal is to develop models for the analysis of searchers’ behaviors over time and investigate if time series analysis is a valid method for predicting relationships between searcher actions. Time series analysis is a method often used to understand the underlying characteristics of temporal data in order to make forecasts. In this study, we used a Web search engine transactional log and time series analysis to investigate users’ actions. We conducted our analysis in two phases. In the initial phase, we employed a basic analysis and found that 10% of searchers clicked on sponsored links. However, from 22:00 to 24:00, searchers almost exclusively clicked on the organic links, with almost no clicks on sponsored links. In the second and more extensive phase, we used a one-step prediction time series analysis method along with a transfer function method. The period rarely affects navigational and transactional queries, while rates for transactional queries vary during different periods. Our results show that the average length of a searcher session is approximately 2.9 interactions and that this average is consistent across time periods. Most importantly, our findings shows that searchers who submit the shortest queries (i.e., in number of terms) click on highest ranked results. We discuss implications, including predictive value, and future research.