67 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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In most materials, short stress waves are generated during the process of plastic deformation, phase transformation, crack formation and crack growth. These phenomena are applied in acoustic emission (AE) for the detection of material defects in a wide spectrum of areas, ranging from nondestructive testing for the detection of materials defects to monitoring of microseismical activity. AE technique is also used for defect source identification and for failure detection. AE waves consist of P waves (primary longitudinal waves), S waves (shear/transverse waves) and Rayleigh (surface) waves as well as reflected and diffracted waves. The propagation of AE waves in various modes has made the determination of source location difficult. In order to use acoustic emission technique for accurate identification of source, an understanding of wave propagation of the AE signals at various locations in a plate structure is essential. Furthermore, an understanding of wave propagation can also assist in sensor location for optimum detection of AE signals along with the characteristics of the source. In real life, as the AE signals radiate from the source it will result in stress waves. Unless the type of stress wave is known, it is very difficult to locate the source when using the classical propagation velocity equations. This paper describes the simulation of AE waves to identify the source location and its characteristics in steel plate as well as the wave modes. The finite element analysis (FEA) is used for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in thin plate. By knowing the type of wave generated, it is possible to apply the appropriate wave equations to determine the location of the source. For a single plate structure, the results show that the simulation algorithm is effective to simulate different stress waves.

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We study sample-based estimates of the expectation of the function produced by the empirical minimization algorithm. We investigate the extent to which one can estimate the rate of convergence of the empirical minimizer in a data dependent manner. We establish three main results. First, we provide an algorithm that upper bounds the expectation of the empirical minimizer in a completely data-dependent manner. This bound is based on a structural result due to Bartlett and Mendelson, which relates expectations to sample averages. Second, we show that these structural upper bounds can be loose, compared to previous bounds. In particular, we demonstrate a class for which the expectation of the empirical minimizer decreases as O(1/n) for sample size n, although the upper bound based on structural properties is Ω(1). Third, we show that this looseness of the bound is inevitable: we present an example that shows that a sharp bound cannot be universally recovered from empirical data.

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Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

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This paper reports a longitudinal analysis of 20 necessity driven micro-entrepreneurs operating in Beira, Central Mozambique, who received funding and training from the same NGO to establish or grow their business activities and reports the development of these entrepreneurs in terms of their acquired entrepreneurial potential for long-term success. The results indicate there is a process of entrepreneurial becoming that is not just about access to finance but especially learning and, when successful, this process supports the transformation of survival micro-enterprises into entrepreneurial micro-businesses. The concept of ‘becoming’ contains an implicit temporal dimension. Becoming suggests a transformation over time: a change from what one is already. In this study, we witness a significant change in understanding how a business needs to operate, in recognizing opportunities, thinking more creatively, and building self-confidence.

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Using interview data on LGBT young peoples’ policing experiences, I argue policing practices work to constrain public visibilities of sexual and gender diversity in public spaces. Police actions recounted by LGBT young people suggest the workings of a certain kind of visuality (Mason, 2002) and evidenced more subtle actions that sought to constrain, regulate, and punish public visibilities of sexual and gender diversity. Aligning with the work of sexualities academics and theorists, this paper suggests that, like violence is itself a bodily spectacle from which onlookers come to know things, policing works to subtly constrain public visibilities of “queerness”. Policing interactions with LGBT young people serves the purpose of visibly yet unverifiably (Mason, 2002) regulating displays of sexual and gender diversity in public spaces. The paper concludes noting how police actions are nonetheless visible and therefore make knowable to the public the importance of keeping same sex intimacy invisible in public spaces.

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This article examines the decision in Turner v Mitchells Solicitors [2011] QDC 61 and the issue whether an application for assessment of costs under an interim bill at the time of a final bill is subject to the usual 12-month restriction.

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This paper focuses on the satirical Australian television show The Chaser’s War on Everything, and uses it to critically explore the potential ramifications of what McNair (2006) has called ‘cultural chaos’. Through an analysis of several examples from this particular program, alongside interviews with its production team and qualitative audience research, this paper argues that this TV show’s engagement with political issues in a creative, entertaining way that departs from the conventions of traditional journalism, allows it to present a perhaps more authentic image of political agents than is often cultivated in the mainstream news media. This paper therefore provides clear evidence that the shift from homogeneity to heterogeneity in the news media presents a significant challenge to those who wish to heavily control public opinion. It also provides further support for an optimistic re-appraisal of entertainment which emphasises its central (not merely periphery) role in political discourse.

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Under current law Australia appears to be a tax haven for certain non-governmental institutions. Millions of ordinary business income may go untaxed and the deductibility for donations is unlimited - both are very generous tax measures in an international context. The basic problems of most Australian nonprofit organisations are not taxation; they are just that: nonprofit. Anybody interested in the non-governmental sector should be willing to face the question: What is an equitable tax treatment? The short-term tactic of ducking the question may not be the best or most beneficial long term strategy.

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Objective: To explore psychosocial issues perceived to impact the mental health and well-being of resident (non-fly-in fly-out) mine workers at a local mine in regional Queensland. Design: A descriptive qualitative study using semistructured interviews. Setting: The research was conducted on-site at an opencut coal mine in regional Queensland. Participants: Ten miners (nine men) currently employed in workshop, production or supervisory roles. Main outcome measures: Self-reported issues affecting psychological well-being. Results: Participants’ occupation and the surrounding context appeared to have both positive and negative influences on their well-being. Overall findings could be grouped into four key themes: (i) the importance of relationships; (ii) the impact of lifestyle; (iii) work characteristics; and (iv) mental health attitudes. While not without strains on mental health, in general, participants reported that their current situation was superior to their previous mining jobs. This was attributed to close relationships among locally recruited workers, respect for management practices and rosters that allowed adequate sleep recovery and family time between shifts. Conclusions: This study is the first to examine mental health and well being in non-fly-in fly-out mining populations. It suggests that while some issues appear inherent in the mining occupation, personal and organisational support can help workers have a more positive workplace experience. Further work looking at more extensive comparisons over various mining contexts will greatly assist in the development of programs and support structures for rural and regional mine workers.

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Recently arrived older refugees in resettlement countries are a particularly vulnerable population who face many risks to their health and well-being, and many challenges in accessing services.This paper reports on a project undertaken in Victoria,Australia to explore the needs of older people from 14 recently arrived refugee communities, and the barriers to their receiving health and aged care. Findings from consultations with community workers and service providers highlight the key issues of isolation, family conflict and mental illness affecting older refugees, and point to ways in which policy-makers and service providers can better respond to these small but deserving communities.

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In this paper, the authors combine Pierre Bourdieu’s concept of hysteresis (the ‘fish out of water’ experience) with the discourse historical approach to critical discourse analysis (CDA) as a theoretical and analytical framework through which they examine specific moments in the schooling experiences of one refugee student and one international student, both enrolled in post-compulsory education in Australian mainstream secondary schools. We examine specific moments – as narrated by these students during interviews – in which these students can be described as ‘fish out of water’. As such, this paper takes up the concerns of researchers who call for an examination of the lived geographies and the everyday lives of individual students in mainstream schools. We find that our students’ habitus, conditioned by their previous schooling experiences in their home countries, did not match their new Australian schools, resulting in frustration with, and alienation from, their mainstream schools. However, we also note that schools, too, need to adapt and adjust their habitus to the new multicultural world, in which there are international and refugee students among their usual cohort of mainstream students.