Using decision trees in economizer repair decision making

The economiser is a critical component for efficient operation of coal-fired power stations. It consists of a large system of water-filled tubes which extract heat from the exhaust gases. When it fails, usually due to erosion causing a leak, the entire power station must be shut down to effect repairs. Not only are such repairs highly expensive, but the overall repair costs are significantly affected by fluctuations in electricity market prices, due to revenue lost during the outage. As a result, decisions about when to repair an economiser can alter the repair costs by millions of dollars. Therefore, economiser repair decisions are critical and must be optimised. However, making optimal repair decisions is difficult because economiser leaks are a type of interactive failure. If left unfixed, a leak in a tube can cause additional leaks in adjacent tubes which will need more time to repair. In addition, when choosing repair times, one also needs to consider a number of other uncertain inputs such as future electricity market prices and demands. Although many different decision models and methodologies have been developed, an effective decision-making method specifically for economiser repairs has yet to be defined. In this paper, we describe a Decision Tree based method to meet this need. An industrial case study is presented to demonstrate the application of our method.

The experience of xenophobia in South Africa

In May 2008, xenophobic violence erupted in South Africa. The targets were individuals who had migrated from the north in search of asylum. Emerging first in township communities around Johannesburg, the aggression spread to other provinces. Sixty-two people died, and 100,000 (20,000 in the Western Cape alone) were displaced. As the attacks escalated across the country, thousands of migrants searched for refuge in police stations and churches. Chilling stories spread about mobs armed with axes, metal bars, and clubs. The mobs stormed from shack to shack, assaulted migrants, locked them in their homes, and set the homes on fire. The public reaction was one of shock and horror. The Los Angeles Times declared, “Migrants Burned Alive in S. Africa.” The South African president at the time, Thabo Mbeki, called for an end to “shameful and criminal attacks.” Commentators were stunned by the signs of hatred of foreigners (xenophobia) that emerged in the young South African democracy. The tragedy of the violence in South Africa was magnified by the fact that many of the victims had fled from violence and persecution in their countries of origin. Amid genocidal violations of human rights that had recently occurred in some countries in sub- Saharan Africa, the new South Africa stood as a beacon of democracy and respect for human dignity. With this openness in mind, many immigrants to South Africa sought safety and refuge from the conflicts in their homelands. More than 43,500 refugees and 227,000 asylum seekers now live in South Africa. The majority of people accorded refugee status came from Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Somalia. South Africa also hosts thousands of other migrants who remain undocumented.

What's missing in teacher education? A middle years perspective

Recently in Queensland a group of concerned educators raised a key question: What is missing in teacher education? The group of teacher educators, teachers, educational consultants and other significant stakeholders met in Warwick to interrogate the nature of teacher education with a view to reshaping the key constructs in the field for the future. It was agreed at this meeting, as it has been elsewhere, that there is a serious need to rethink pre-service teacher education programs in Queensland. Major employing authorities are currently engaging in curriculum and pedagogical reform. Further, the intensification of teachers' work has reached a point where all teacher education authorities are cognisant of the increasing numbers of teachers who are struggling to contend with what is expected of them from a myriad of stakeholders.

Phenological changes in six Australian subalpine plants in response to experimental warming and year-to-year variation

The likely phenological responses of plants to climate warming can be measured through experimental manipulation of field sites, but results are rarely validated against year-to-year changes in climate. Here, we describe the response of 1-5 years of experimental warming on phenology (budding, flowering and seed maturation) of six common subalpine plant species in the Australian Alps using the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) protocol.2. Phenological changes in some species (particularly the forb Craspedia jamesii) were detected in experimental plots within a year of warming, whereas changes in most other species (the forb Erigeron bellidioides, the shrub Asterolasia trymalioides and the graminoids Carex breviculmis and Poa hiemata) did not develop until after 2-4 years; thus, there appears to be a cumulative effect of warming for some species across multiple years.3. There was evidence of changes in the length of the period between flowering and seed maturity in one species (P. hiemata) that led to a similar timing of seed maturation, suggesting compensation.4. Year-to-year variation in phenology was greater than variation between warmed and control plots and could be related to differences in thawing degree days (particularly, for E. bellidioides) due to earlier timing of budding and other events under warmer conditions. However, in Carex breviculmis, there was no association between phenology and temperature changes across years.5. These findings indicate that, although phenological changes occurred earlier in response to warming in all six species, some species showed buffered rather than immediate responses.6. Synthesis. Warming in ITEX open-top chambers in the Australian Alps produced earlier budding, flowering and seed set in several alpine species. Species also altered the timing of these events, particularly budding, in response to year-to-year temperature variation. Some species responded immediately, whereas in others the cumulative effects of warming across several years were required before a response was detected.

Renewal decision support for linear assets

Linear (or continuous) assets are engineering infrastructure that usually spans long distances and can be divided into different segments, all of which perform the same function but may be subject to different loads and environmental factors. Typical linear assets include railway lines, roads, pipelines and cables. How and when to renew such assets are critical decisions for asset owners as they normally involves significant capital investment. Through investigating the characteristics of linear asset renewal decisions and identifying the critical requirements that are associated with renewal decisions, we present a multi-criteria decision support method to help optimise renewal decisions. A case study that concerns renewal of an economiser's tubing system is a coal-fired power station is adopted to demonstrate the application of this method. Although the paper concerns a particular linear asset decision type, the approach has broad applicability for linear asset management.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Queen's Parks in Queensland

Queen's Park in Maryborough is one of many public gardens established in the nineteenth century in Queensland: in Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba, Warwick, Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns and Cooktown. They were created primarily as places of horticultural experimentation, as well as for recreational purposes. They formed a local area network, with the Brisbane Botanic Garden and the Government Botanist, Walter Hill, at the centre – at least in the 1870s. From here, the links extended to other botanic gardens in Australia, and beyond Australia to the British colonial network managed through the Royal Botanic Gardens (RBG), Kew. It was an informal network, supplying a knowledge of basic economic botany that founded many tropical agricultural industries and also provided much-needed recreational, educational and inspirational opportunities for colonial newcomers and residents. The story of these parks, from the time when they were first set aside as public reserves by the government surveyors to the present day, is central to the history of urban planning in regional centres. This article provides a statewide overview together with a more in-depth examination of Maryborough's own historic Queen's Park.

Misericordiae Antemortem - The 1955 Mount Superbus Crash

On the 9th April 1955, RAAF Lincoln Bomber A73-64, on a mercy flight to transfer a critically ill infant from Townsville to Brisbane, crashed at Mount Superbus killing the four crew and two civilians on board. The immediate search and rescue was organised by a group of Brisbane bushwalkers who were camping in the area. Police and RAAF personnel subsequently joined the civilians at the crash site to recover the victims. During their initial search of the crash they located what were believed to be the remains of five adults. The arrival of the RAAF Senior Medical Officer (SMO) the following day revealed that only four adult bodies had been found and the bodies of both civilians, an adult and infant, were missing. Later that day the remains of six victims were recovered from the crash site and conveyed to the Warwick Police Station for identification. The RAAF SMO was responsible for the identifications of the aircrew while the Government Medical Officer, police and coroner were responsible for the identifications of the civilians. Eight days later, further remains of the infant were found by a civilian looking through the wreckage. This paper uses archival records not previously researched from a Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) perspective to stimulate interest among forensic practitioners, criminologists and other interested parties in the history of DVI and how practices in Australia have evolved.

A critical assessment of the Australian OHS accreditation system's "Body of Knowledge (BoK)"

In response to an increasing perception of poor OHS consultancy quality amongst the Australian public, regulator and OHS professionals, the Safety Institute Australia (SIA) was tasked by the Victorian government to establish an accreditation process for OHS professionals. The OHS accreditation board decided to base its accreditation on a core "body of knowledge" (BoK), against which applicants are assesssed. While the foundation and structure of the BoK is unclear, the BoK consists of a collection of essays from a variety of invited authors. The BoK comprises about 811 pages in 34 chapters, with significant redundancy and considerable subjective components. The SIA BoK is benchmarked against two international best-practices, the German "Core Definition, Object Catalog and Research Domains of Labour Science (Ergonomics)" (Luzcak, Volpert, Raeithel & Schwier, 1989)(100 pages) and the American "Core Competency Model" for the "Master's Degree in Public Health" (Association of Schools of Public Health, 2006) (21 pages). Both "core definition" and "core competency model" are on a comparative level to the BoK. While the German expert panel consisted of 14 eminent professors, the American panel consisted of 135 members, organized in 6 groups chaired by discipline leading academics. The Australian approach employed a broad approach, where 137 professionals, consultants, emerging academics and academics contributed to 8 workshops. Both the German and the American panels maintained an open communication amongst members and with the discipline community throughout the process, whereas SIA applied an open and directed peer-review process. Moreover, the German process involved an analysis of all congress content and journal publications in the scientific domain in a set timeframe, which were then systematically clustered. These results were further expanded by structured interviews with 38 professors in the discpline, grasping their research and teaching practice. The American workgroup however assumed core scientific areas, underlying the domain. Based upon the a-priori assumption, they then established well defined competencies across all areas using a modified Delphi process. Although the BoK attempts to explore the knowledge in the OHS domain without an imposed structure in a bottom-up approach, it does not result in a structured systematic of the science. We conclude that the outcome of the German, rigorous academic approach, and the US American democratic approach under unambiguous academic leadership both outperform the Australian advocacy group approach. This product was determined for both structure and content of the taxonomy delivered through the processes.

Exploring Indigenous representations in Australian film and literature for the Australian Curriculum

The Australian Curriculum: English, v.5 (ACARA, 2013) now being implemented in Queensland asks teachers and curriculum designers to incorporate the cross curriculum priority (CCP)of Indigenous issues through Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander histories and cultures. In the Australian Curriculum English, (AC:E) one way to address this CCP is by including texts by and about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. With the rise of promising and accomplished young, Indigenous filmmakers such as Ivan Sen, Rachael Perkins, Wayne Blair and Warwick Thornton, this guide focuses on the suitable films for schools implementing the Australian Curriculum in terms of cultural representations. This annotated guide suggests some films suitable for inclusion in classroom study and suggests some companion texts (novels, plays, television series and animations, documentaries, poetry and short stories) that may be studied alongside the films. Some of these are by Indigenous filmmakers and writers, and others features Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island representations in character and/or themes.

Critical reflection on the SIA’s professional project and the body of knowledge

Over the last few years the Safety Institute of Australia (SIA) has developed and implemented a number of strategies to gain professional status for the ‘generalist occupational health and safety professional’. Two of the most significant developments have been the publication of the ‘Core Body of Knowledge for the Generalist OHS Professional.’ and the accreditation of university OHS courses. Despite a considerable amount of work aimed at gaining professional status there has not been any public debate or reflection about how the professionalisation project may impact on OHS and how the project is being conducted. Professionalisation has been vigorously promoted as a sign of maturity for the SIA and which will provide unmitigated benefits for workplace health and safety. The aim of this paper is to critically reflect on the processes of professionalisation (the professional project) and discuss some of the ways in which this project may shape the field of occupational health and safety. The implications for the role of universities will also be discussed.