Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

Community uses of co-creative media digital storytelling and co-creative Media: The role of community arts and media in propagating and coordinating population-wide creative practice

How is creative expression and communication extended among whole populations? What is the social and cultural value of this activity? What roles do formal agencies, community-based organisations and content producer networks play? Specifically, how do participatory media and arts projects and networks contribute to building this capacity in the contemporary communications environment? The latest issue of CSJ article in a special issue on “Broadening Digital Storytelling Horizons” edited by Burcu Simsek.

Dangerous Coagulations? The Uses of Foucault in the Study of Education

This book brings together an outstanding group of scholars who draw on the works of Michel Foucault. Eclectic in topic and method, the essays illustrate Foucault’s usefulness. Dangerous Coagulations? constitutes a departure from the more formulaic Foucault work that has emerged and highlights new possibilities for undertaking problematizing approaches to educational research.

Memory of past random wave conditions in submarine groundwater discharge

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an integral part of the hydrological cycle and represents an important aspect of land-ocean interactions. We used a numerical model to simulate flow and salt transport in a nearshore groundwater aquifer under varying wave conditions based on yearlong random wave data sets, including storm surge events. The results showed significant flow asymmetry with rapid response of influxes and retarded response of effluxes across the seabed to the irregular wave conditions. While a storm surge immediately intensified seawater influx to the aquifer, the subsequent return of intruded seawater to the sea, as part of an increased SGD, was gradual. Using functional data analysis, we revealed and quantified retarded, cumulative effects of past wave conditions on SGD including the fresh groundwater and recirculating seawater discharge components. The retardation was characterized well by a gamma distribution function regardless of wave conditions. The relationships between discharge rates and wave parameters were quantifiable by a regression model in a functional form independent of the actual irregular wave conditions. This statistical model provides a useful method for analyzing and predicting SGD from nearshore unconfined aquifers affected by random waves

Knowmore (House of Commons)

Knowmore (House of Commons) is a large scale generative interactive installation that incorporates embodied interaction, dynamic image creation, new furniture forms, touch sensitivity, innovative collaborative processes and multichannel generative sound creation. A large circular table spun by hand and a computer-controlled video projection falls on its top, creating an uncanny blend of physical object and virtual media. Participants’ presence around the table and how they touch it is registered, allowing up to five people to collaboratively ‘play’ this deeply immersive audiovisual work. Set within an ecological context, the work subtly asks what kind of resources and knowledges might be necessary to move us past simply knowing what needs to be changed to instead actually embodying that change, whilst hinting at other deeply relational ways of understanding and knowing the world. The work has successfully operated in two high traffic public environments, generating a subtle form of interactivity that allows different people to interact at different paces and speeds and with differing intentions, each contributing towards dramatic public outcomes. The research field involved developing new interaction and engagement strategies for eco-political media arts practice. The context was the creation of improved embodied, performative and improvisational experiences for participants; further informed by ‘Sustainment’ theory. The central question was, what ontological shifts may be necessary to better envision and align our everyday life choices in ways that respect that which is shared by all - 'The Commons'. The methodology was primarily practice-led and in concert with underlying theories. The work’s knowledge contribution was to question how new media interactive experience and embodied interaction might prompt participants to reflect upon the kind of resources and knowledges required to move past simply knowing what needs to be changed to instead actually embodying that change. This was achieved through focusing on the power of embodied learning implied by the works' strongly physical interface (i.e. the spinning of a full size table) in concert with the complex field of layered imagery and sound. The work was commissioned by the State Library of Queensland and Queensland Artworkers Alliance and significantly funded by The Australia Council for the Arts, Arts Queensland, QUT, RMIT Centre for Animation and Interactive Media and industry partners E2E Visuals. After premiering for 3 months at the State Library of Queensland it was curated into the significant ‘Mediations Biennial of Modern Art’ in Poznan, Poland. The work formed the basis of two papers, was reviewed in Realtime (90), was overviewed at Subtle Technologies (2010) in Toronto and shortlisted for ISEA 2011 Istanbul and included in the edited book/catalogue ‘Art in Spite of Economics’, a collaboration between Leonardo/ISAST (MIT Press); Goldsmiths, University of London; ISEA International; and Sabanci University, Istanbul.

Walking the Coleridge Way : using cultural tourism to change perceptions of Somerset after the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001

This paper explores one of the ways in which the Somerset region in the United Kingdom, devastated by the foot and mouth epidemic in 2001, is trying to free itself from recurring negative representations and create more positive images of the area. After the epidemic projects were sought that would promote a more positive image and draw tourists back to the area. One of these projects drew on literary tourism to reinvigorate the site. A Walking and Bridle trail called the ‘Coleridge Way Walk’ has been implemented to take the images of the area from ones of disease and dirtiness to ones of Romantic longing. The Coleridge Way Walk uses past imaginings to re-energise the area. This energy, in part, comes from ‘re-imagining’ the site through past imaginings. The Coleridge Way Walk uses the past to create future direction for the once tainted area.

Past, present and the evolving future of public health and health promotion: Reflections on dismantling in Queensland Australia

Objective For more than ten years the public health and health promotion workforce in the Australian state of Queensland grew dramatically. This growth was most pronounced in the disciplines of Health Promotion and in Public Health Nutrition, both regionally and corporately. In 2012 political change led to an abrupt dismantling of its public and preventive health services across the state. Individual responsibility was declared. Method This presentation provides a qualitative narrative description of past achievements and activities, the current situation and provides a perspective towards the future. Findings Government reports over several years described the growing burden of chronic disease arising from conditions such as obesity, physical inactivity, and poor nutrition in Queensland. By 2008, obesity had overtaken smoking as the single greatest risk factor to the health of Queenslanders. In 2010, the Chief Health Officer called for an increased focus on prevention to address the continuing need for more beds in hospitals. However, with political change in 2012 resulted in the dismantling and dismissal of preventive health services across the state. The following year, despite outcry, sexual health services were also axed. At present, outbreaks of vaccine preventable diseases such as measles are occurring. The epidemics of chronic disease, obesity and physical inactivity continue to grow. Conclusion The evolution of public health is not necessarily progressive, but cyclic. Challenges include political change, health practice and the interplay of health policy. A lack of an embedded emphasis on systematic review translation is one potential contributor. Perhaps the warning of Lang & Rayner should be heeded: “public health proponents have allowed themselves to be corralled into the narrow language of individualism and choice”.

Towards a typology of hashtag publics: A large-scale comparative study of user engagement across trending topics

Twitter’s hashtag functionality is now used for a very wide variety of purposes, from covering crises and other breaking news events through gathering an instant community around shared media texts (such as sporting events and TV broadcasts) to signalling emotive states from amusement to despair. These divergent uses of the hashtag are increasingly recognised in the literature, with attention paid especially to the ability for hashtags to facilitate the creation of ad hoc or hashtag publics. A more comprehensive understanding of these different uses of hashtags has yet to be developed, however. Previous research has explored the potential for a systematic analysis of the quantitative metrics that could be generated from processing a series of hashtag datasets. Such research found, for example, that crisis-related hashtags exhibited a significantly larger incidence of retweets and tweets containing URLs than hashtags relating to televised events, and on this basis hypothesised that the information-seeking and -sharing behaviours of Twitter users in such different contexts were substantially divergent. This article updates such study and their methodology by examining the communicative metrics of a considerably larger and more diverse number of hashtag datasets, compiled over the past five years. This provides an opportunity both to confirm earlier findings, as well as to explore whether hashtag use practices may have shifted subsequently as Twitter’s userbase has developed further; it also enables the identification of further hashtag types beyond the “crisis” and “mainstream media event” types outlined to date. The article also explores the presence of such patterns beyond recognised hashtags, by incorporating an analysis of a number of keyword-based datasets. This large-scale, comparative approach contributes towards the establishment of a more comprehensive typology of hashtags and their publics, and the metrics it describes will also be able to be used to classify new hashtags emerging in the future. In turn, this may enable researchers to develop systems for automatically distinguishing newly trending topics into a number of event types, which may be useful for example for the automatic detection of acute crises and other breaking news events.

Methodologies for investigating relationships between concept development and the development of problem solving abilities

This paper is the second in a pair that Lesh, English, and Fennewald will be presenting at ICME TSG 19 on Problem Solving in Mathematics Education. The first paper describes three shortcomings of past research on mathematical problem solving. The first shortcoming can be seen in the fact that knowledge has not accumulated – in fact it has atrophied significantly during the past decade. Unsuccessful theories continue to be recycled and embellished. One reason for this is that researchers generally have failed to develop research tools needed to reliably observe, document, and assess the development of concepts and abilities that they claim to be important. The second shortcoming is that existing theories and research have failed to make it clear how concept development (or the development of basic skills) is related to the development of problem solving abilities – especially when attention is shifted beyond word problems found in school to the kind of problems found outside of school, where the requisite skills and even the questions to be asked might not be known in advance. The third shortcoming has to do with inherent weaknesses in observational studies and teaching experiments – and the assumption that a single grand theory should be able to describe all of the conceptual systems, instructional systems, and assessment systems that strongly molded and shaped by the same theoretical perspectives that are being used to develop them. Therefore, this paper will describe theoretical perspectives and methodological tools that are proving to be effective to combat the preceding kinds or shortcomings. We refer to our theoretical framework as models & modeling perspectives (MMP) on problem solving (Lesh & Doerr, 2003), learning, and teaching. One of the main methodologies of MMP is called multi-tier design studies (MTD).

Ourplace : the convergence of locative media and online participatory culture

The trans-locative potential of the Internet has driven the design of many online applications. Online communities largely cluster around topics of interest, which take precedence over participants’ geographical locations. The site of production is often disregarded when creative content appears online. However, for some, a sense of place is a defining aspect of creativity. Yet environments that focus on the display and sharing of regionally situated content have, so far, been largely overlooked. Recent developments in geo-technologies have precipitated the emergence of a new field of interactive media. Entitled locative media, it emphasizes the geographical context of media. This paper argues that we might combine practices of locative media (experiential mapping and geo-spatial annotation) with aspects of online participatory culture (uploading, file-sharing and search categorization) to produce online applications that support geographically ‘located’ communities. It discusses the design considerations and possibilities of this convergence,making reference to an example, OurPlace 3G to 3D, which has to date been developed as a prototype.1 It goes on to discuss the benefits and potential uses of such convergent applications, including the co-production of spatial- emporal narratives of place.

Testing the effectiveness of a Practice Development intervention on changing the culture of evidence based practice in an acute care environment

In this age of evidence-based practice, nurses are increasingly expected to use research evidence in a systematic and judicious way when making decisions about patient care practices. Clinicians recognise the role of research when it provides valid, realistic answers in practical situations. Nonetheless, research is still perceived by some nurses as external to practice and implementing research findings into practice is often difficult. Since its conceptual platform in the 1960s, the emergence and growth of Nursing Development Units, and later, Practice Development Units has been described in the literature as strategic, organisational vehicles for changing the way nurses think about nursing by promoting and supporting a culture of inquiry and research-based practice. Thus, some scholars argue that practice development is situated in the gap between research and practice. Since the 1990s, the discourse has shifted from the structure and outcomes of developing practice to the process of developing practice, using a Practice Development methodology; underpinned by critical social science theory, as a vehicle for changing the culture and context of care. The nursing and practice development literature is dominated by descriptive reports of local practice development activity, typically focusing on reflection on processes or outcomes of processes, and describing perceived benefits. However, despite the volume of published literature, there is little published empirical research in the Australian or international context on the effectiveness of Practice Development as a methodology for changing the culture and context of care - leaving a gap in the literature. The aim of this study was to develop, implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a Practice Development model for clinical practice review and change on changing the culture and context of care for nurses working in an acute care setting. A longitudinal, pre-test/post-test, non-equivalent control group design was used to answer the following research questions: 1. Is there a relationship between nurses' perceptions of the culture and context of care and nurses' perceptions of research and evidence-based practice? 2. Is there a relationship between engagement in a facilitated process of Practice Development and change in nurses' perceptions of the culture and context of care? 3. Is there a relationship between engagement in a facilitated process of Practice Development and change in nurses' perceptions of research and evidence-based practice? Through a critical analysis of the literature and synthesis of the findings of past evaluations of Nursing and Practice Development structures and processes, this research has identified key attributes consistent throughout the chronological and theoretical development of Nursing and Practice Development that exemplify a culture and context of care that is conducive to creating a culture of inquiry and evidence-based practice. The study findings were then used in the development, validation and testing of an instrument to measure change in the culture and context of care. Furthermore, this research has also provided empirical evidence of the relationship of the key attributes to each other and to barriers to research and evidence-based practice. The research also provides empirical evidence regarding the effectiveness of a Practice Development methodology in changing the culture and context of care. This research is noteworthy in its contribution to advancing the discipline of nursing by providing evidence of the degree to which attributes of the culture and context of care, namely autonomy and control, workplace empowerment and constructive team dynamics, can be connected to engagement with research and evidence-based practice.

Stroke education : promising effects on the health beliefs of those at risk

Background: The effect of patient education on reducing stroke has had mixed effects, raising questions about how to achieve optimal benefit. Because past evaluations have typically lacked an appropriate theoretical base, the design of past research may have missed important effects. --------- Method: This study used a social cognitive framework to identify variables that might change in response to education. A mixed design was used to evaluate two approaches to an intervention, both of which included education. Fifty seniors completed a measure of stroke knowledge and beliefs twice: before and after an intervention that was either standard (educational brochure plus activities that were not about stroke) or enhanced (educational brochure plus activities designed to enhance beliefs about stroke). Outcome measures were health beliefs, intention to exercise to reduce stroke, and stroke knowledge. --------- Results: Selected beliefs changed significantly over time but not differentially across conditions. Beliefs that changed were (a) perceived susceptibility to stroke and (b) perceived benefit of exercise to reduce risk. Benefit beliefs, in particular, were strongly and positively associated with intention to exercise. -------- Conclusion: Findings suggest that basic approaches to patient education may influence health beliefs. More effective stroke prevention programs may result from continued consideration of the role of health beliefs in such programs.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

Gene transfer to plants by diverse species of bacteria

Agrobacterium is widely considered to be the only bacterial genus capable of transferring genes to plants. When suitably modified, Agrobacterium has become the most effective vector for gene transfer in plant biotechnology1. However, the complexity of the patent landscape2 has created both real and perceived obstacles to the effective use of this technology for agricultural improvements by many public and private organizations worldwide. Here we show that several species of bacteria outside the Agrobacterium genus can be modified to mediate gene transfer to a number of diverse plants. These plant-associated symbiotic bacteria were made competent for gene transfer by acquisition of both a disarmed Ti plasmid and a suitable binary vector. This alternative to Agrobacterium-mediated technology for crop improvement, in addition to affording a versatile ‘open source’ platform for plant biotechnology, may lead to new uses of natural bacteria– plant interactions to achieve plant transformation.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.