Mining temporal and spatial travel regularities for transit planning

Smart Card data from Automated Fare Collection system has been considered as a promising source of information for transit planning. However, literature has been limited to mining travel patterns from transit users and suggesting the potential of using this information. This paper proposes a method for mining spatial regular origins-destinations and temporal habitual travelling time from transit users. These travel regularity are discussed as being useful for transit planning. After reconstructing the travel itineraries, three levels of Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (DBSCAN) have been utilised to retrieve travel regularity of each of each frequent transit users. Analyses of passenger classifications and personal travel time variability estimation are performed as the examples of using travel regularity in transit planning. The methodology introduced in this paper is of interest for transit authorities in planning and managements

Impact of socio-ecological variability on the transmission of malaria in Yunnan Province, China

This thesis is a population-based epidemiological study to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of malaria, and to assess the relationship between socio-ecological factors and malaria in Yunnan, China. Geospatial and temporal approaches were applied; the high risk areas of the disease were identified; and socio-ecological drivers of malaria were assessed. These findings will provide important evidence for the control and prevention of malaria in China and other countries with a similar situation of endemic malaria.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Temporal and environmental influences on the vocal behaviour of a nocturnal bird

Temporal and environmental variation in vocal activity can provide information on avian behaviour and call function not available to short-term experimental studies. Intersexual differences in this variation can provide insight into selection effects. Yet factors influencing vocal behaviour have not been assessed in many birds, even those monitored by acoustic methods. This applies to the New Zealand kiwi (Apterygidae), for which call censuses are used extensively in conservation monitoring, yet which have poorly understood acoustic ecology. We investigated little spotted kiwi Apteryx owenii vocal behaviour over 3 yr, measuring influences on vocal activity in both sexes from time of night, season, weather conditions and lunar cycle. We tested hypotheses that call rate variation reflects call function, foraging efficiency, historic predation risk and variability in sound transmission, and that there are inter-sexual differences in call function. Significant seasonal variation showed that vocalisations were important in kiwi reproduction, and inter-sexual synchronisation of call rates indicated that contact, pair-bonding or resource defence were key functions. All weather variables significantly affected call rates, with elevated calling during increased humidity and ground moisture indicating a relation between vocal activity and foraging conditions. A significant decrease in calling activity on cloudy nights, combined with no moonlight effect, suggests an impact of light pollution in this species. These influences on vocal activity provide insight into kiwi call function, have direct consequences for conservation monitoring of kiwi, and have wider implications in understanding vocal behaviour in a range of nocturnal birds

Variability in exposure to ambient ultrafine particles in urban schools: Comparative assessment between Australia and Spain

Ambient ultrafine particle number concentrations (PNC) have inhomogeneous spatio-temporal distributions and depend on a number of different urban factors, including background conditions and distant sources. This paper quantitatively compares exposure to ambient ultrafine particles at urban schools in two cities in developed countries, with high insolation climatic conditions, namely Brisbane (Australia) and Barcelona (Spain). The analysis used comprehensive indoor and outdoor air quality measurements at 25 schools in Brisbane and 39 schools in Barcelona. PNC modes were analysed with respect to ambient temperature, land use and urban characteristics, combined with the measured elemental carbon concentrations, NOx (Brisbane) and NO2 (Barcelona). The trends and modes of the quantified weekday average daily cycles of ambient PNC exhibited significant differences between the two cities. PNC increases were observed during traffic rush hours in both cases. However, the mid-day peak was dominant in Brisbane schools and had the highest contribution to total PNC for both indoors and outdoors. In Barcelona, the contribution from traffic was highest for ambient PNC, while the mid-day peak had a slightly higher contribution for indoor concentrations. Analysis of the relationships between PNC and land use characteristics in Barcelona schools showed a moderate correlation with the percentage of road network area and an anti-correlation with the percentage of green area. No statistically significant correlations were found for Brisbane. Overall, despite many similarities between the two cities, school-based exposure patterns were different. The main source of ambient PNC at schools was shown to be traffic in Barcelona and mid-day new particle formation in Brisbane. The mid-day PNC peak in Brisbane could have been driven by the combined effect of background and meteorological conditions, as well as other local/distant sources. The results have implications for urban development, especially in terms of air quality mitigation and management at schools.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.