Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reply to William B. Grant

THE UVI working group acknowledges the contribution of Vitamin D to bone health as stated in our paper. However, we concluded that an optimal level of Vitamin D for humans has not yet been established with any certainty...

Review : "The Man from Hong Kong" -- Brian Trenchard Smith

Synopsis and review of the Australian action film The Man from Hong Kong (Brian Trenchard Smith, 1975). Includes cast and credits. Australia’s first martial arts action film was a coproduction between Hong Kong production company Golden Harvest and director Brian Trenchard Smith’s Movie Company, with significant investment from BEF Distributors, a subsidiary of the Australian exhibition chain Greater Union. Two years previously, Golden Harvest had coproduced the Bruce Lee smash hit Enter the Dragon, with Warner Bros. The Man from Hong Kong was its first partnership with an Australian producer, and the first coproduction between Hong Kong and Australian based companies. Although the film was almost entirely set in Sydney, much of the production was shot in a Hong Kong studio, where sets including Wilton’s gloriously decorated apartment were built...

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Cungellela by William ‘Dura Danje’ Leisha and Shem ‘Curan Danje’ Leisha

Research background: Cungelela is an intercultural music project undertaken in collaboration with William ‘Dura Danje’ Leisha and Shem ‘Curan Danje’ Leisha. The project contributes to cultural maintenance for Australian First Nations peoples, and is informed by prior work in this area by scholars including Peter Dunbar-Hall, Chris Gibson and Karl Neuenfeldt. These existing studies have discussed the complexities of intercultural collaboration, and the types of cultural politics that are involved when Indigenous and non-Indigenous musicians and scholars work together on projects of cultural significance. Critical race theory has also informed the creative work, as a means of interpreting the implicit and explicit discourses of race that arise through intercultural creative practice. The project asked the research question, in what ways can collaborative music making contribute to intercultural understanding and support cultural maintenance for Australian First Nations people affected by the Stolen Generations? Research contribution: This project has identified that collaborative production of recorded popular music can produce shared affective, embodied and transformative forms of knowledge about the impact of the Stolen Generations on Australian First Nations peoples. Research significance: The compact disc was presented by Aunty Anne Leisha as part of an invited presentation at the World Indigenous Nations Higher Education Consortium in New Mexico, 2013. The work also formed part of a refereed conference presentation at the 2013 conference of the International Association for the Study of Popular Music held at the University of Oviedo, Gijon, Spain.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of Geogenic Contaminants in Water Co-Produced with Coal Seam Gas Extraction in Queensland, Australia : Implications for Human Health Risk

Organic compounds in Australian coal seam gas produced water (CSG water) are poorly understood despite their environmental contamination potential. In this study, the presence of some organic substances is identified from government-held CSG water-quality data from the Bowen and Surat Basins, Queensland. These records revealed the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 27% of samples of CSG water from the Walloon Coal Measures at concentrations <1 µg/L, and it is likely these compounds leached from in situ coals. PAHs identified from wells include naphthalene, phenanthrene, chrysene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene. In addition, the likelihood of coal-derived organic compounds leaching to groundwater is assessed by undertaking toxicity leaching experiments using coal rank and water chemistry as variables. These tests suggest higher molecular weight PAHs (including benzo[a]pyrene) leach from higher rank coals, whereas lower molecular weight PAHs leach at greater concentrations from lower rank coal. Some of the identified organic compounds have carcinogenic or health risk potential, but they are unlikely to be acutely toxic at the observed concentrations which are almost negligible (largely due to the hydrophobicity of such compounds). Hence, this study will be useful to practitioners assessing CSG water related environmental and health risk.

Inhibition by poly(acrylic acid) and morphological changes in calcium carbonate and calcium carbonate/calcium sulfate crystallization on silica fibers

An intrinsic exposed core optical fiber sensor (IECOFS) made from fused silica was used to monitor the crystallization of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and CaCO3/calcium sulfate (CaSO4) composite at 100 and 120 °C in the absence and presence of low-molar-mass (Mn ≤ 2000) poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) with different end groups. The IECOFS responded only to deposition and growth processes on the fiber surface rather than changes occurring in the bulk of the solution. Hexyl isobutyrate-terminated PAA (Mn = 1400) and hexadecyl isobutyrate-terminated PAA (Mn = 1700) were the most effective species in preventing CaCO3 deposition. Phase transformation from vaterite to aragonite/calcite decreased with increasing hydrophobicity of the PAA end group. Low-molar-mass PAA at 10 ppm showed very significant inhibition of CaCO3/CaSO4 composite formation for all end groups investigated.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 56 bone mineral density loci and reveals 14 loci associated with risk of fracture

Bone mineral density (BMD) is the most widely used predictor of fracture risk. We performed the largest meta-analysis to date on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD, including 17 genome-wide association studies and 32,961 individuals of European and east Asian ancestry. We tested the top BMD-associated markers for replication in 50,933 independent subjects and for association with risk of low-trauma fracture in 31,016 individuals with a history of fracture (cases) and 102,444 controls. We identified 56 loci (32 new) associated with BMD at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Several of these factors cluster within the RANK-RANKL-OPG, mesenchymal stem cell differentiation, endochondral ossification and Wnt signaling pathways. However, we also discovered loci that were localized to genes not known to have a role in bone biology. Fourteen BMD-associated loci were also associated with fracture risk (P < 5 × 10−4, Bonferroni corrected), of which six reached P < 5 × 10−8, including at 18p11.21 (FAM210A), 7q21.3 (SLC25A13), 11q13.2 (LRP5), 4q22.1 (MEPE), 2p16.2 (SPTBN1) and 10q21.1 (DKK1). These findings shed light on the genetic architecture and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying BMD variation and fracture susceptibility.

Genome-wide association study identifies eight loci associated with blood pressure

Elevated blood pressure is a common, heritable cause of cardiovascular disease worldwide. To date, identification of common genetic variants influencing blood pressure has proven challenging. We tested 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs for association with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 34,433 subjects of European ancestry from the Global BPgen consortium and followed up findings with direct genotyping (N 71,225 European ancestry, N 12,889 Indian Asian ancestry) and in silico comparison (CHARGE consortium, N = 29,136). We identified association between systolic or diastolic blood pressure and common variants in eight regions near the CYP17A1 (P = 7 × 10 24), CYP1A2 (P = 1 × 10 23), FGF5 (P = 1 × 10 21), SH2B3 (P = 3 × 10 18), MTHFR (P = 2 × 10 13), c10orf107 (P = 1 × 10 9), ZNF652 (P = 5 × 10 9) and PLCD3 (P = 1 × 10 8) genes. All variants associated with continuous blood pressure were associated with dichotomous hypertension. These associations between common variants and blood pressure and hypertension offer mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and may point to novel targets for interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Evidence-based recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis: Results from the Australian 3E initiative in rheumatology

Aim: To develop a set of Australian recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) through systematic literature review combined with the opinion of practicing rheumatologists. Methods: A set of eight questions, four in each domain of monitoring and treatment, were formulated by voting and the Delphi method. The results of a systematic literature review addressing each question were presented to the 23 participants of the Australian 3E meeting. All participants were clinical rheumatologists experienced in the daily management of AS. Results: After three rounds of breakout sessions to discuss the findings of the literature review, a set of recommendations was finalized after discussion and voting. The category of evidence and strength of recommendation were determined for each proposal. The level of agreement among participants was excellent (mean 84%, range 64-100%). Conclusions: The 12 recommendations developed from evidence and expert opinion provide guidance for the daily management of AS patients. For most recommendations, we found a paucity of supportive evidence in the literature highlighting the need for additional clinical studies.

William James, Sciences of Mind, and Anti-imperial Discourse

In the past few decades, the humanities and social sciences have developed new methods of reorienting their conceptual frameworks in a “world without frontiers.” In this book, Bernadette M. Baker offers an innovative approach to rethinking sciences of mind as they formed at the turn of the twentieth century, via the concerns that have emerged at the turn of the twenty-first. The less-visited texts of Harvard philosopher and psychologist William James provide a window into contemporary debates over principles of toleration, anti-imperial discourse, and the nature of ethics. Baker revisits Jamesian approaches to the formation of scientific objects including the child mind, exceptional mental states, and the ghost to explore the possibilities and limits of social scientific thought dedicated to mind development and discipline formation around the construct of the West.