Efficient probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure considering wind perturbation

The integration of stochastic wind power has accentuated a challenge for power system stability assessment. Since the power system is a time-variant system under wind generation fluctuations, pure time-domain simulations are difficult to provide real-time stability assessment. As a result, the worst-case scenario is simulated to give a very conservative assessment of system transient stability. In this study, a probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure method is proposed to provide a less conservative contingency analysis which covers 5-min wind fluctuations and a successive fault. This probabilistic approach would estimate the transfer limit of a critical line for a given fault with stochastic wind generation and active control devices in a multi-machine system. This approach achieves a lower computation cost and improved accuracy using a new stability measure and polynomial interpolation, and is feasible for online contingency analysis.

Micropolar flow in a porous channel with high mass transfer

Two dimensional flow of a micropolar fluid in a porous channel is investigated. The flow is driven by suction or injection at the channel walls, and the micropolar model due to Eringen is used to describe the working fluid. An extension of Berman's similarity transform is used to reduce the governing equations to a set of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. The latter are solved for large mass transfer via a perturbation analysis where the inverse of the cross-flow Reynolds number is used as the perturbing parameter. Complementary numerical solutions for strong injection are also obtained using a quasilinearisation scheme, and good agreement is observed between the solutions obtained from the perturbation analysis and the computations.

A Petrov-Galerkin method for a singularly perturbed ordinary differential equation with non-smooth data

In this paper, a singularly perturbed ordinary differential equation with non-smooth data is considered. The numerical method is generated by means of a Petrov-Galerkin finite element method with the piecewise-exponential test function and the piecewise-linear trial function. At the discontinuous point of the coefficient, a special technique is used. The method is shown to be first-order accurate and singular perturbation parameter uniform convergence. Finally, numerical results are presented, which are in agreement with theoretical results.

Flow of a micropolar fluid bounded by a stretching sheet

We consider boundary layer flow of a micropolar fluid driven by a porous stretching sheet. A similarity solution is defined, and numerical solutions using Runge-Kutta and quasilinearisation schemes are obtained. A perturbation analysis is also used to derive analytic solutions to first order in the perturbing parameter. The resulting closed form solutions involve relatively complex expressions, and the analysis is made more tractable by a combination of offline and online work using a computational algebra system (CAS). For this combined numerical and analytic approach, the perturbation analysis yields a number of benefits with regard to the numerical work. The existence of a closed form solution helps to discriminate between acceptable and spurious numerical solutions. Also, the expressions obtained from the perturbation work can provide an accurate description of the solution for ranges of parameters where the numerical approaches considered here prove computationally more difficult.

Advanced paternal age is associated with impaired neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood

Background Advanced paternal age (APA) is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism and schizophrenia, as well as with dyslexia and reduced intelligence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between paternal age and performance on neurocognitive measures during infancy and childhood. Methods and Findings A sample of singleton children (n = 33,437) was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart Block Sort Test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Wide Range Achievement Test). The main analyses examined the relationship between neurocognitive measures and paternal or maternal age when adjusted for potential confounding factors. Advanced paternal age showed significant associations with poorer scores on all of the neurocognitive measures apart from the Bayley Motor score. The findings were broadly consistent in direction and effect size at all three ages. In contrast, advanced maternal age was generally associated with better scores on these same measures. Conclusions The offspring of older fathers show subtle impairments on tests of neurocognitive ability during infancy and childhood. In light of secular trends related to delayed fatherhood, the clinical implications and the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

Increasing stochastic perturbations enhances acquisition and learning of complex sport movements

Traditionally, the aquisition of skills and sport movement has been characterised by numerous repetitions of presumed model movement pattern to be acquired by learners. This approach has been questioned by research identifying the presence of individualised movement patterns and the low probability of occurrence of two identical movements within and between individuals. In contrast, the differential learning approach claims advantage for incurring variability in the learning process by adding stochastic perturbations during practice. These ideas are exemplified by data from a high jump experiment which compared the effectiveness of classical and a differential training approach with pre-post test design. Results showed clear advantages for the group with additional stochastic perturbation during the aquisition phase in comparison to classically trained athletes. Analogies to similar phenomenological effects in the neurobiological literature are discussed.

Maternal age and paternal age are associated with distinct childhood behavioural outcomes in a general population birth cohort

Abstract Background Recent studies show that advanced paternal age (APA) is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A body of evidence also suggests that individuals who develop schizophrenia show subtle deviations in a range of behavioural domains during their childhood. The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between paternal and maternal ages and selected behavioural measures in children using a large birth cohort. Method Participants were singleton children (n = 21,753) drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 7 years. The main analyses examined the relationship between parental age and behavioural measures when adjusted for a range of potentially confounding variables, including age of the other parent, maternal race, socio-economic measures, sex, gestation length, maternal marital status, parental mental illness, and child's age-at-testing. Results Advanced paternal age was associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse ‘externalizing’ behaviours at age seven years. For every five year increase in paternal age, the odds of higher ‘externalizing’ behaviours was increased by 12% (OR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.21, p < 0.0001). The relationship persisted after adjusting for potential confounding factors. ‘Internalizing’ behavioural outcome was not associated with advanced paternal age. In contrast, advanced maternal age was significantly protective against adverse ‘externalizing’ behavioural outcomes, but associated with an increased risk of adverse ‘internalizing’ behavioural outcomes. Discussion The offspring of older fathers show a distinctly different pattern of behaviours compared to the offspring of older mothers. The diverse socio-cultural and biologically-mediated factors that underpin these findings remain to be clarified. In light of secular trends related to delayed parenthood, the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

A sequencing approach for creating new train timetables

Train scheduling is a complex and time consuming task of vital importance. To schedule trains more accurately and efficiently than permitted by current techniques a novel hybrid job shop approach has been proposed and implemented. Unique characteristics of train scheduling are first incorporated into a disjunctive graph model of train operations. A constructive algorithm that utilises this model is then developed. The constructive algorithm is a general procedure that constructs a schedule using insertion, backtracking and dynamic route selection mechanisms. It provides a significant search capability and is valid for any objective criteria. Simulated Annealing and Local Search meta-heuristic improvement algorithms are also adapted and extended. An important feature of these approaches is a new compound perturbation operator that consists of many unitary moves that allows trains to be shifted feasibly and more easily within the solution. A numerical investigation and case study is provided and demonstrates that high quality solutions are obtainable on real sized applications.

Faith's knowledge : papers exploring the theory and application of theological epistemology

This thesis locates the origins of modern secular knowledge in late medieval theology. Problems with modern and postmodern knowledge which arise from these theological origins are then tackled theologically, and the manner in which secular ways of understanding knowledge are embedded in specific university, political and hospital contexts are then described and evaluated from a post-secular theological standpoint. The theoretical component of this thesis looks at knowledge itself and finds that without faith there can be no knowledge. The applied component of this thesis does two things. Firstly it explores how our conception of knowledge shapes the assumptions, operational norms, belief frames and tacit values of some characteristically modern and secular institutions. Secondly the applied component evaluates those contexts from the theologically premised conception of knowledge which was argued for in the theoretical component of this thesis.

Curriculum and religion

Across continents and cultures and periods of history, religious beliefs have underpinned curriculum in institutions of education. More recently, the so-called culture wars and terrorism have moved religion to center stage. In both state and independent education sectors, deep-seated assumptions about the nature of reality, spirituality, ethics and knowledge converge and clash in the curriculum documents of science, history, literacy education, and the like. With a focus on textual genres of power, starting with antiquity, this chapter argues that little has changed through millennia as the secular mysticism of price has replaced theology today in constraining the potentials of education.

Modelling the foil rolling process

A review of the main rolling models is conducted to assess their suitability for modelling the foil rolling process. Two such models are Fleck and Johnson's Hertzian model and Fleck, Johnson, Mear and Zhang's Influence Function model. Both of these models are approximated through the use of perturbation methods. Decrease in the computation time resulted when compared with the numerical solution. The Hertzian model was approximated using the ratio of the yield stress of the strip to the plane-strain Young's Modulus of the rolls as the small perturbation parameter. The Influence Function model approximation takes advantage of the solution of the well-known Aerofoil Integral Equation to gain an insight into how the choice of interior boundary points affects the stability of numerical solution of the model's equations. These approximations require less computation than their full models and, in the case of the Hertzian approximation, only introduces a small error in the predictions of roll force roll torque. Hence the Hertzian approximate method is suitable for on-line control. The predictions from the Influence Function approximation underestimates the predictions from the numerical results. Better approximation of the pressure in the plastic reduction regions is the main source of this error.

Study of industrially relevant boundary layer and axisymmetric flows, including swirl and turbulence

Micropolar and RNG-based modelling of industrially relevant boundary layer and recirculating swirling flows is described. Both models contain a number of adjustable parameters and auxiliary conditions that must be either modelled or experimentally determined, and the effects of varying these on the resulting flow solutions is quantified. To these ends, the behaviour of the micropolar model for self-similar flow over a surface that is both stretching and transpiring is explored in depth. The simplified governing equations permit both analytic and numerical approaches to be adopted, and a number of closed form solutions (both exact and approximate) are obtained using perturbation and order of magnitude analyses. Results are compared with the corresponding Newtonian flow solution in order to highlight the differences between the micropolar and classical models, and significant new insights into the behaviour of the micropolar model are revealed for this flow. The behaviour of the RNG-bas based models for swirling flow with vortex breakdown zones is explored in depth via computational modelling of two experimental data sets and an idealised breakdown flow configuration. Meticulous modeling of upstream auxillary conditions is required to correctly assess the behavior of the models studied in this work. The novel concept of using the results to infer the role of turbulence in the onset and topology of the breakdown zone is employed.

Contracting bubbles in Hele-Shaw cells with a power-law fluid

The problem of bubble contraction in a Hele-Shaw cell is studied for the case in which the surrounding fluid is of power-law type. A small perturbation of the radially symmetric problem is first considered, focussing on the behaviour just before the bubble vanishes, it being found that for shear-thinning fluids the radially symmetric solution is stable, while for shear-thickening fluids the aspect ratio of the bubble boundary increases. The borderline (Newtonian) case considered previously is neutrally stable, the bubble boundary becoming elliptic in shape with the eccentricity of the ellipse depending on the initial data. Further light is shed on the bubble contraction problem by considering a long thin Hele-Shaw cell: for early times the leading-order behaviour is one-dimensional in this limit; however, as the bubble contracts its evolution is ultimately determined by the solution of a Wiener-Hopf problem, the transition between the long-thin limit and the extinction limit in which the bubble vanishes being described by what is in effect a similarity solution of the second kind. This same solution describes the generic (slit-like) extinction behaviour for shear-thickening fluids, the interface profiles that generalise the ellipses that characterise the Newtonian case being constructed by the Wiener-Hopf calculation.

A polymorphism in the dysbindin gene (DTNBP1) associated with multiple psychiatric disorders including schizophrenia

Background A number of studies have found associations between dysbindin (DTNBP1) polymorphisms and schizophrenia. Recently we identified a DTNBP1 SNP (rs9370822) that is strongly associated with schizophrenia. Individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia were nearly three times as likely to carry the CC genotype compared to the AA genotype. Methods To investigate the importance of this SNP in the function of DTNBP1, a number of psychiatric conditions including addictive behaviours and anxiety disorders were analysed for association with rs9370822. Results The DTNBP1 polymorphism was significantly associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as well as nicotine and opiate dependence but not alcohol dependence. Individuals suffering PTSD were more than three times as likely to carry the CC genotype compared to the AA genotype. Individuals with nicotine or opiate dependence were more than twice as likely to carry the CC genotype compared to the AA genotype. Conclusions This study provides further support for the importance of DTNBP1 in psychiatric conditions and suggests that there is a common underlying molecular defect involving DTNBP1 that contributes to the development of several anxiety and addictive disorders that are generally recognised as separate clinical conditions. These disorders may actually be different expressions of a single metabolic pathway perturbation. As our participant numbers are limited our observations should be viewed with caution until they are independently replicated.