Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

Determination of preventive maintenance lead time using hybrid analysis

The time for conducting Preventive Maintenance (PM) on an asset is often determined using a predefined alarm limit based on trends of a hazard function. In this paper, the authors propose using both hazard and reliability functions to improve the accuracy of the prediction particularly when the failure characteristic of the asset whole life is modelled using different failure distributions for the different stages of the life of the asset. The proposed method is validated using simulations and case studies.

Application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in multi-criteria analysis of the selection of intelligent building systems

The availability of innumerable intelligent building (IB) products, and the current dearth of inclusive building component selection methods suggest that decision makers might be confronted with the quandary of forming a particular combination of components to suit the needs of a specific IB project. Despite this problem, few empirical studies have so far been undertaken to analyse the selection of the IB systems, and to identify key selection criteria for major IB systems. This study is designed to fill these research gaps. Two surveys: a general survey and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) survey are proposed to achieve these objectives. The first general survey aims to collect general views from IB experts and practitioners to identify the perceived critical selection criteria, while the AHP survey was conducted to prioritize and assign the important weightings for the perceived criteria in the general survey. Results generally suggest that each IB system was determined by a disparate set of selection criteria with different weightings. ‘Work efficiency’ is perceived to be most important core selection criterion for various IB systems, while ‘user comfort’, ‘safety’ and ‘cost effectiveness’ are also considered to be significant. Two sub-criteria, ‘reliability’ and ‘operating and maintenance costs’, are regarded as prime factors to be considered in selecting IB systems. The current study contributes to the industry and IB research in at least two aspects. First, it widens the understanding of the selection criteria, as well as their degree of importance, of the IB systems. It also adopts a multi-criteria AHP approach which is a new method to analyse and select the building systems in IB. Further research would investigate the inter-relationship amongst the selection criteria.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Confirmatory factor analysis of the Way of Coping Checklist-Revised (WCCL-R) in the Asian context

Industrial employment growth has been one of the most dynamic areas of expansion in Asia; however, current trends in industrialised working environments have resulted in greater employee stress. Despite research showing that cultural values affect the way people cope with stress, there is a dearth of psychometrically established tools for use in non-Western countries to measure these constructs. Studies of the "Way of Coping Checklist-Revised" (WCCL-R) in the West suggest that the WCCL-R has good psychometric properties, but its applicability in the East is still understudied. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is used to validate the WCCL-R constructs in an Asian population. This study used 1,314 participants from Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Thailand. An initial exploratory factor analysis revealed that original structures were not confirmed; however, a subsequent EFA and CFA showed that a 38-item, five-factor structure model was confirmed. The revised WCCL-R in the Asian sample was also found to have good reliability and sound construct and concurrent validity. The 38-item structure of the WCCL-R has considerable potential in future occupational stress-related research in Asian countries.

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

Determinants of health costs due to farmers’ exposure to pesticides : an empirical analysis

It is now well known that pesticide spraying by farmers has an adverse impact on their health. This is especially so in developing countries where pesticide spraying is undertaken manually. The estimated health costs are large. Studies to date have examined farmers’ exposure to pesticides, the costs of ill-health and their determinants based on information provided by farmers. Hence, some doubt has been cast on the reliability of such studies. In this study, we rectify this situation by conducting surveys among two groups of farmers. Farmers who perceive that their ill-health is due to exposure to pesticides and obtained treatment and farmers whose ill-health have been diagnosed by doctors and who have been treated in hospital for exposure to pesticides. In the paper, cost comparisons between the two groups of farmers are made. Furthermore, regression analysis of the determinants of health costs show that the quantity of pesticides used per acre per month, frequency of pesticide use and number of pesticides used per hour per day are the most important determinants of medical costs for both samples. The results have important policy implications.

Parents’ self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance when managing atopic dermatitis in children: Instrument reliability and validity

BACKGROUND: Support and education for parents faced with managing a child with atopic dermatitis is crucial to the success of current treatments. Interventions aiming to improve parent management of this condition are promising. Unfortunately, evaluation is hampered by lack of precise research tools to measure change. OBJECTIVES: To develop a suite of valid and reliable research instruments to appraise parents' self-efficacy for performing atopic dermatitis management tasks; outcome expectations of performing management tasks; and self-reported task performance in a community sample of parents of children with atopic dermatitis. METHODS: The Parents' Eczema Management Scale (PEMS) and the Parents' Outcome Expectations of Eczema Management Scale (POEEMS) were developed from an existing self-efficacy scale, the Parental Self-Efficacy with Eczema Care Index (PASECI). Each scale was presented in a single self-administered questionnaire, to measure self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance related to managing child atopic dermatitis. Each was tested with a community sample of parents of children with atopic dermatitis, and psychometric evaluation of the scales' reliability and validity was conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A community-based convenience sample of 120 parents of children with atopic dermatitis completed the self-administered questionnaire. Participants were recruited through schools across Australia. RESULTS: Satisfactory internal consistency and test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all three scales. Construct validity was satisfactory, with positive relationships between self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and general perceived self-efficacy; self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and self-reported task performance; and self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and outcome expectations. Factor analyses revealed two-factor structures for PEMS and PASECI alike, with both scales containing factors related to performing routine management tasks, and managing the child's symptoms and behaviour. Factor analysis was also applied to POEEMS resulting in a three-factor structure. Factors relating to independent management of atopic dermatitis by the parent, involving healthcare professionals in management, and involving the child in the management of atopic dermatitis were found. Parents' self-efficacy and outcome expectations had a significant influence on self-reported task performance. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that PEMS and POEEMS are valid and reliable instruments worthy of further psychometric evaluation. Likewise, validity and reliability of PASECI was confirmed.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Applications on fault tree analysis in railway power supply systems

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is presented to model the reliability of a railway traction power system in this paper. First, the construction of fault tree is introduced to integrate components in traction power systems into a fault tree; then the binary decision diagram (BDD) method is used to evaluate fault trees qualitatively and quantitatively. The components contributing to the reliability of overall system are identified with their relative importance through sensitivity analysis. Finally, an AC traction power system is evaluated by the proposed methods.

Clinical indicators of quality for Australian residential aged care facilities : establishing reliability, validity, and quality thresholds

Background: In response to the need for more comprehensive quality assessment within Australian residential aged care facilities, the Clinical Care Indicator (CCI) Tool was developed to collect outcome data as a means of making inferences about quality. A national trial of its effectiveness and a Brisbane-based trial of its use within the quality improvement context determined the CCI Tool represented a potentially valuable addition to the Australian aged care system. This document describes the next phase in the CCI Tool.s development; the aims of which were to establish validity and reliability of the CCI Tool, and to develop quality indicator thresholds (benchmarks) for use in Australia. The CCI Tool is now known as the ResCareQA (Residential Care Quality Assessment). Methods: The study aims were achieved through a combination of quantitative data analysis, and expert panel consultations using modified Delphi process. The expert panel consisted of experienced aged care clinicians, managers, and academics; they were initially consulted to determine face and content validity of the ResCareQA, and later to develop thresholds of quality. To analyse its psychometric properties, ResCareQA forms were completed for all residents (N=498) of nine aged care facilities throughout Queensland. Kappa statistics were used to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliability, and Cronbach.s alpha coefficient calculated to determine internal consistency. For concurrent validity, equivalent items on the ResCareQA and the Resident Classification Scales (RCS) were compared using Spearman.s rank order correlations, while discriminative validity was assessed using known-groups technique, comparing ResCareQA results between groups with differing care needs, as well as between male and female residents. Rank-ordered facility results for each clinical care indicator (CCI) were circulated to the panel; upper and lower thresholds for each CCI were nominated by panel members and refined through a Delphi process. These thresholds indicate excellent care at one extreme and questionable care at the other. Results: Minor modifications were made to the assessment, and it was renamed the ResCareQA. Agreement on its content was reached after two Delphi rounds; the final version contains 24 questions across four domains, enabling generation of 36 CCIs. Both test-retest and inter-rater reliability were sound with median kappa values of 0.74 (test-retest) and 0.91 (inter-rater); internal consistency was not as strong, with a Chronbach.s alpha of 0.46. Because the ResCareQA does not provide a single combined score, comparisons for concurrent validity were made with the RCS on an item by item basis, with most resultant correlations being quite low. Discriminative validity analyses, however, revealed highly significant differences in total number of CCIs between high care and low care groups (t199=10.77, p=0.000), while the differences between male and female residents were not significant (t414=0.56, p=0.58). Clinical outcomes varied both within and between facilities; agreed upper and lower thresholds were finalised after three Delphi rounds. Conclusions: The ResCareQA provides a comprehensive, easily administered means of monitoring quality in residential aged care facilities that can be reliably used on multiple occasions. The relatively modest internal consistency score was likely due to the multi-factorial nature of quality, and the absence of an aggregate result for the assessment. Measurement of concurrent validity proved difficult in the absence of a gold standard, but the sound discriminative validity results suggest that the ResCareQA has acceptable validity and could be confidently used as an indication of care quality within Australian residential aged care facilities. The thresholds, while preliminary due to small sample size, enable users to make judgements about quality within and between facilities. Thus it is recommended the ResCareQA be adopted for wider use.