Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Implicit discount rates and fisheries management : is there a relationship?

Fishers are faced with multiple risks, including unpredictability of future catch rates, prices and costs. While the latter are largely beyond the control of fisheries managers, effective fisheries management should reduce uncertainty about future catches. Different management instruments are likely to have different impacts on the risk perception of fishers, and this should manifest itself in their implicit discount rate. Assuming licence and quota values represent the net present value of the flow of expected future profits, then a proxy for the implicit discount rate of vessels in a fishery can be derived by the ratio of the average level of profits to the average licence/quota value. From this, an indication of the risk perception can be derived, assuming higher discount rates reflect higher levels of systematic risk. In this paper, we apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the risk premium implicit in the discount rates for a range of Australian fisheries, and compare this with the set of management instruments in place. We test the assumption that rights based management instruments lower perceptions of risk in fisheries. We find little evidence to support this assumption. although the analysis was based on only limited data.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

Transnational business masculinities : media representations of gender and management in global mining corporations

This paper examines Australian media representations of the male managers of two global mining corporations, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. These organizations are transnational (or multinational) corporations with assets and/or operations across national boundaries (Dunning and Lundan, 2008), and indeed their respective Chief Executive Officers, Tom Albanese and Marius Kloppers are two of the most economically (and arguably politically) powerful in the world overseeing 37 000 and 39 000 employees internationally. With a 2008 profit of US$15.962 billion and assets of US$ 75.889 Billion BHP Billiton is the world's largest mining company. In terms of its profits and assets Rio Tinto ranks fourth in the world, but with operations in six countries (mainly Canada and Australia) and a 2008 profit of US$10.3 billion it is also emblematic of the transnational in that its ‘budget is larger than that of all but a few nations’ (Giddens, 2003, p. 62).

The organisation : risk, resilience and governance

Tarrant argues that a solid risk management strategy is critical to building effective, transformational and adaptive organisations. Organisations are a fundamental part of our society and economic system whether they are private, public or not-for-profits. There are very few aspects of our society and economy that don’t rely wholly or in part on the performance of organisations. Disasters and crises are complex and very challenging environments for organisations. How can effective transformational and adaptive capacity become institutionalised and a core part of good governance of organisations? Effective risk management is a critical element in meeting organisational objectives in a turbulent and uncertain environment.

Landcorp Farming Limited : cultivating livestock, ideas and innovation

In 1987 Landcorp was corporatised as a state-owned enterprise under New Zealand's public sector reforms and began operating as a collection of farms located throughout the country. Twenty years later, Landcorp had established a record of careful land management, productivity growth and solid financial returns, transforming from a fledgling company into one of the country's largest farmers. Landcorp was a major agribusiness with assets of more than $1.4 billion, built on a culture of continuous improvement and an innovative approach to business. The challenge going forward was to continue growth without increasing land ownership : cultivating ideas to grow in less conventional ways. This case study examines the operations, development and innovative approach to business undertaken by Landcorp Farming Limited, concentrating on the challenges faced by the company to maintain profits and growth, and its strategic direction for the future.

Volunteer visibility : what and how Australian not-for-profit organisations report volunteer contributions

The enhanced social profile of not-for-profit organisations (NFPs) and the role of volunteers have resulted in calls for NFPs to be more accountable and to disclose information relating to such contributions. In this study we identify, locate and categorise the extent of disclosures made in relation to volunteer contributions. We find that disclosure was more prevalent on NFP websites compared to digital annual report disclosures. We find that more NFPs provided disclosure on the activities of their volunteers than other items pertaining to volunteers. The valuation of volunteer contributions was the least likely to be disclosed. The findings contribute to international debate over the inclusion of volunteer contributions in the assessment of a NFP’s accountability over its resources and ultimately the enhancement of its sustainability.

The high road or the low road? Alternatives for Australia's future

The OECD suggests that countries now have a choice. They can focus on development based on either:  competition via investment in technology and innovation - which is important in high knowledge industries and high innovation economies, or  competition via exchange rates and wages - which is important in industries producing standardised, lower-tech goods and services. The first route will maximise higher-skilled, higher-paid employment growth and living standards. Given the lack of control over the exchange rate, the second route requires competition based on wages. It is essential to understand that markets themselves won’t shift a country from one path to the other. These conclusions arise from the OECD’s recognition that technical progress - the creation of new products or the adoption of more efficient methods of production - is the main source of economic growth and enhanced quality of life. Technological change is, the OECD suggests, ...also the engine for job creation as higher wages and profits resulting from technology-induced productivity gains and lower prices lead to increased demand for new products from existing as well as new industries (1997: 4).Further, Competitiveness in high-technology industries is mainly driven by technology factors and much less by wage and exchange rate movements, while the reverse is true in low-technology industries (OECD 1996e: 12). The OECD has shown that sound macroeconomic conditions, such as the low inflation and reduced public sector debt visible in almost all member countries in the 1990s, are not enough to deal with high levels of unemployment and the need to increase levels of income: If economic performance is to improve, additional structural reform, which can increase innovation and the diffusion of technologies within and among national economies, seems necessary (OECD 1997: 4 Emphasis added).

Standardisation and patent ambush : potential liability under Australian competition law

This article examines the problem of patent ambush in standard setting, where patent owners are sometimes able to capture industry standards in order to secure monopoly power and windfall profits. Because standardisation generally introduces high switching costs, patent ambush can impose significant costs on downstream manufacturers and consumers and drastically reduce the efficiency gains of standardisation.This article considers how Australian competition law is likely to apply to patent ambush both in the development of a standard (through misrepresenting the existence of an essential patent) and after a standard is implemented (through refusing to license an essential patented technology either at all or on reasonable and non-discriminatory (RAND) terms). This article suggests that non-disclosure of patent interests is unlikely to restrained by Part IV of the Trade Practices Act (TPA), and refusals to license are only likely to be restrained if the refusal involves leveraging or exclusive dealing. By contrast, Standard Setting Organisations (SSOs) which seek to limit this behaviour through private ordering may face considerable scrutiny under the new cartel provisions of the TPA. This article concludes that SSOs may be best advised to implement administrative measures to prevent patent hold-up, such as reviewing which patents are essential for the implementation of a standard, asking patent holders to make their licence conditions public to promote transparency, and establishing forums where patent licensees can complain about licence terms that they consider to be unreasonable or discriminatory. Additionally, the ACCC may play a role in authorising SSO policies that could otherwise breach the new cartel provisions, but which have the practical effect of promoting competition in the standards setting environment.

Independent cinema in the Chinese film industry

Chinese independent cinema has developed for more than twenty years. Two sorts of independent cinema exist in China. One is underground cinema, which is produced without official approvals and cannot be circulated in China, and the other are the films which are legally produced by small private film companies and circulated in the domestic film market. This sort of ‘within-system’ independent cinema has played a significant role in the development of Chinese cinema in terms of culture, economics and ideology. In contrast to the amount of comment on underground filmmaking in China, the significance of ‘within-system’ independent cinema has been underestimated by most scholars. This thesis is a study of how political management has determined the development of Chinese independent cinema and how Chinese independent cinema has developed during its various historical trajectories. This study takes media economics as the research approach, and its major methods utilise archive analysis and interviews. The thesis begins with a general review of the definition and business of American independent cinema. Then, after a literature review of Chinese independent cinema, it identifies significant gaps in previous studies and reviews issues of traditional definition and suggests a new definition. After several case studies on the changes in the most famous Chinese directors’ careers, the thesis shows that state studios and private film companies are two essential domestic backers for filmmaking in China. After that, the body of the thesis provides an examination of the development of ‘within-system’ independent cinema. Specifically, three factors: government intervention, the majors’ performance (state studios and, later, the conglomerates) and the market conduct of independent cinema at various points in their trajectories are studied. The key findings of the study are as follows: First, most scholars have overlooked the existence and the significance of within-system Chinese independent cinema. Drawing on an American definition of the independent sector, this thesis proposes a definition of the sector in China: namely, any film that has not been financed, produced, and/or distributed by majors. The thesis also notes important contradictions in applying this definition: i.e. film-making is still dependent on policies that frame industry development. The thesis recognises that major tensions apply to filmmaking in China, which significantly differentiates the Chinese independents from those in the US. Second, the development of Chinese independent cinema is the result the rise of the private sector and the decline of the state studio system. As state studios encountered difficulties the private sector moved forward; consequently the environment improved for independent cinema. Third, before 2003, the film industry in China had little commercialisation. The government controlled independent cinema by means of license and censorship. State studios produced main melody films and Hollywood attracted most of the audiences. Many independent filmmakers focused on commercial films, thus contributing to film commercialisation. Fourth, after 2003, the film industry became increasingly fragmented. The government created distribution and exhibition opportunities for main melody films; conglomerates collaborated with Hong Kong players; Hong Kong co-productions and Hollywood occupied the film market; and small private film companies produced main melody films in order to earn meagre profits. The original contribution of the thesis is to advance the study of Chinese independent cinema. The study suggests a reasonable and practical definition of Chinese independent cinema. It shows how the Chinese government authorities have implemented economic measures to gain ideological control in the film industry. Finally, this the first study on Chinese independent cinema applying a synthesis of economic, political and historical perspectives.

Learning to act in uncertain environments : technical perspective

The problem of decision making in an uncertain environment arises in many diverse contexts: deciding whether to keep a hard drive spinning in a net-book; choosing which advertisement to post to a Web site visitor; choosing how many newspapers to order so as to maximize profits; or choosing a route to recommend to a driver given limited and possibly out-of-date information about traffic conditions. All are sequential decision problems, since earlier decisions affect subsequent performance; all require adaptive approaches, since they involve significant uncertainty. The key issue in effectively solving problems like these is known as the exploration/exploitation trade-off: If I am at a cross-roads, when should I go in the most advantageous direction among those that I have already explored, and when should I strike out in a new direction, in the hopes I will discover something better?

Stability and change

This special feature section of Journal of Management & Organization (Volume 17/1 - March 2011) sets out to widen understanding of the processes of stability and change in today's organizations, with a particular emphasis on the contribution of institutional approaches to organizational studies. Institutional perspectives on organization theory assume that rational, economic calculations, such as the maximization of profits or the optimization of resource allocation, are not sufficient to understand the behavior of organizations and their strategic choices. Institutionalists acknowledge the great uncertainty associated with the conduct of organizations and suggest that taken-for-granted values, beliefs and meanings within and outside organizations also play an important role in the determination of legitimate action.

Top Ten Box Office Blockbusters of All Time

‘Top Ten Box Office Blockbusters in Dollars’, is an ongoing series of works that represent the production budgets and worldwide gross profits of the top ten grossing films of all time. By displaying this data on top of the full running time of each blockbuster, the viewer’s attention is drawn back and forth between the amassing dollar figures, and the original film’s highly polished presentation. In doing so, the work aims to provide a new opportunity to enjoy these immensely popular films with a new sense of value. The exhibition was selected for the Artistic Program at MetroArts, Brisbane in 2010

Gender and new venture outcomes : not better or worse, just different

We investigate how differences in the goals of male and female entrepreneurs affect business resources, outcomes and satisfaction with those outcomes. To investigate this topic we use the CAUSEE database to access a longitudinal sample of 247 female-controlled and 332 male-controlled young Australian firms. We find that female entrepreneurs are less motivated by business growth, invest less time developing their businesses and yet even when profits are lower they are more satisfied with their profit performance. Our results support prior qualitative studies indicating that female business owners want greater flexibility and manageability in terms of balancing their family and work responsibilities. Our findings also suggest that future dialogue on firm performance should include an analysis of the entrepreneur’s achievement in terms of both financial and personal goals.