An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Complex modelling in the primary/middle school years

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual (Katehi, Pearson, & Feder, 2009). With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to significant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientific thinking that are required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden children’s mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This paper first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Next, consideration is given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling. Examples of complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities across grades are presented, with data modelling in 1st grade, model-eliciting in 4th grade, and engineering-based modelling in 7th-9th grades.

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school

Background: The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Methods: Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1 – 3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Results: Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. Conclusion: In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice.

Event-related brain potentials dissociate the developmental time-course of automatic numerical magnitude analysis and cognitive control functions during the first three years of primary school

In this study we set out to dissociate the developmental time course of automatic symbolic number processing and cognitive control functions in grade 1-3 British primary school children. Event-related potential (ERP) and behavioral data were collected in a physical size discrimination numerical Stroop task. Task-irrelevant numerical information was processed automatically already in grade 1. Weakening interference and strengthening facilitation indicated the parallel development of general cognitive control and automatic number processing. Relationships among ERP and behavioral effects suggest that control functions play a larger role in younger children and that automaticity of number processing increases from grade 1 to 3.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered education programme to prevent early childhood caries in a disadvantaged area : a cohort study

Objectives Early childhood caries is a highly destructive dental disease which is compounded by the need for young children to be treated under general anaesthesia. In Australia, there are long waiting periods for treatment at public hospitals. In this paper, we examined the costs and patient outcomes of a prevention programme for early childhood caries to assess its value for government services. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Setting Public dental patients in a low socioeconomic, socially disadvantaged area in the State of Queensland, Australia. Participants Children aged 6 months to 6 years received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Primary and secondary outcome measures A mathematical model was used to assess caries incidence and public dental treatment costs for a cohort of children. Healthcare costs, treatment probabilities and caries incidence were modelled from 6 months to 6 years of age based on trial data from mothers and their children who received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the findings to uncertainty in the model estimates. Results By age 6 years, the telephone intervention programme had prevented an estimated 43 carious teeth and saved £69 984 in healthcare costs per 100 children. The results were sensitive to the cost of general anaesthesia (cost-savings range £36 043–£97 298) and the incidence of caries in the prevention group (cost-savings range £59 496–£83 368) and usual care (cost-savings range £46 833–£93 328), but there were cost savings in all scenarios. Conclusions A telephone intervention that aims to prevent early childhood caries is likely to generate considerable and immediate patient benefits and cost savings to the public dental health service in disadvantaged communities.

Does a functional activity programme improve function, quality of life, and falls for residents in long term care? Cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective To assess the effectiveness of an activity programme in improving function, quality of life, and falls in older people in residential care. Design Cluster randomised controlled trial with one year follow-up. Setting 41low level dependency residential carehomes in New Zealand. Participants 682 people aged 65 years or over. Interventions 330 residents were offered a goal setting and individualised activities of daily living activity programme by a gerontology nurse, reinforced by usual healthcare assistants; 352 residents received social visits. Main outcome measures Function (late life function and disability instruments, elderly mobility scale, FICSIT-4

Complex Modelling in the Primary and Middle School Years : An Interdisciplinary Approach

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual. With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to signifi cant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientifi c thinking required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden students’ mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This chapter first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Consideration is then given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling, as one means of addressing these competencies. Illustrative case studies involving complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities in Years 1 and 7 are presented.

Dioxin risk reduction programme at the most severe dioxin hot spot in Vietnam: Residual knowledge, attitude and practices five years post intervention

Bien Hoa Airbase was one of the bulk storage and supply facilities for defoliants during the Vietnam War. Environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase have elevated levels of dioxin. In 2007, a pre-intervention knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey of local residents living in Trung Dung and Tan Phong wards was undertaken regarding appropriate strategies to reduce dioxin exposure. A risk reduction programme was implemented in 2008 and post-intervention KAP surveys were undertaken in 2009 and 2013 to evaluate the longer term impacts. Quantitative assessment was undertaken via a KAP survey in 2013 among 600 local residents randomly selected from the two intervention wards and one control ward (Buu Long). Eight in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions were also undertaken for qualitative assessment. Most programme activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities had not been integrated into local routine health education programmes; however, main results generally remained and were better than that in Buu Long. In total, 48.2% of households undertook measures to prevent exposure, higher than those in pre- and post-intervention surveys (25.8% and 39.7%) and the control ward (7.7%). Migration and the sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the programme's sustainability

The association between student characteristics and the development of clinical reasoning in a graduate-entry, PBL medical programme

This study sought to assess the extent to which the entry characteristics of students in a graduate-entry medical programme predict the subsequent development of clinical reasoning ability. Subjects comprised 290 students voluntarily recruited from three successive cohorts of the University of Queensland's MBBS Programme. Clinical reasoning was measured once a year over a period of three years using two methods, a set of 10 Clinical Reasoning Problems (CRPs) and the Diagnostic Thinking Inventory (DTI). Data on gender, age at entry into the programme, nature of primary degree, scores on selection criteria (written examination plus interview) and academic performance in the first two years of the programme were recorded for each student, and their association with clinical reasoning skill analysed using univariate and multivariate analysis. Univariate analysis indicated significant associations between CRP score, gender and primary degree with a significant but small association between DTI and interview score. Stage of progression through the programme was also an important predictor of performance on both indicators. Subsequent multivariate analysis suggested that female gender is a positive predictor of CRP score independently of the nature of a subject's primary degree and stage of progression through the programme, although these latter two variables are interdependent. Positive predictors of clinical reasoning skill are stage of progression through the MBBS programme, female gender and interview score. Although the nature of a student's primary degree is important in the early years of the programme, evidence suggests that by graduation differences between students' clinical reasoning skill due to this factor have been resolved.

Gender effects in orientation on primary students’ performance on items rich in graphics

This study investigated the longitudinal performance of 378 students who completed mathematics items rich in graphics. Specifically, this study explored student performance across axis (e.g., numbers lines), opposed-position (e.g., line and column graphs) and circular (e.g., pie charts) items over a three-year period (ages 9-11 years). The results of the study revealed significant performance differences in the favour of boys on graphics items that were represented in horizontal and vertical displays. There were no gender differences on items that were represented in a circular manner.

Education futures : transforming teacher education in the middle years

The young people who populate our classrooms live in a changed and rapidly changing society: a society where information is the most valued commodity and where traditional ‘truth’s such as nation and family are increasingly destabilized and fragmented. Educators at primary, secondary and tertiary level must, with some urgency, address issues relating the emergence of new citizenships and identities, the impact of new technologies and new economies. Our pedagogy and curriculums must be relevant to the need of students now and in the future. The School of Education, The University of Queensland is addressing issues of change, new technologies, new work places, critical citizenry and the need for pedagogical and curriculum innovation through the development of a new Middle Years of Schooling Dual Degree program. This program is designed to equip pre-service teachers to approach pedagogy and curriculum in innovative ways and to challenge them to embrace diversity and change. This paper outlines the key features of the Middle Years of Schooling Dual Degree, identifying a number of innovative approaches to pre-service teacher education.

The cost-effectiveness of routine follow-up after primary total hip arthroplasty

Routine postsurgery assessment of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) is recommended in many countries. Whether the benefits of this activity are justified by the costs is not known. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of 3 different follow-up strategies after primary THA. If there is no routine follow-up of patients for 7 years after primary THA, there would be cost savings between AU$6.5 and $11.9 million and gains of between 1.8 and 8.8 quality-adjusted life years. Policy makers should investigate less resource-intensive alternatives to common routine postsurgical assessment.

The future face of school guidance and counselling : what will it look like in 25 years?

The author undertook a qualitative and quantitative survey of 130 guidance counsellors and primary school principles focusing on perceptions of what school guidance and counselling will be like in 25 years. Generally the participants held similar beliefs and were bullish about employment prospects.