Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

The big brother : monitoring urban growth and change for sustainable infrastructure provision

Monitoring urban growth and land-use change is an important issue for sustainable infrastructure planning. Rapid urban development, sprawl and increasing population pressure, particularly in developing nations, are resulting in deterioration of infrastructure facilities, loss of productive agricultural lands and open spaces, pollution, health hazards and micro-climatic changes. In addressing these issues effectively, it is crucial to collect up-to-date and accurate data and monitor the changing environment at regular intervals. This chapter discusses the role of geospatial technologies for mapping and monitoring the changing environment and urban structure, where such technologies are highly useful for sustainable infrastructure planning and provision.

Incomplete pregnancy and risk of ovarian cancer : results from two Australian case-control studies and systematic review

Although full-term pregnancies reduce the risk of ovarian cancer, it has not been conclusively established whether incomplete pregnancies also influence risk. We investigated the relationship between a history of incomplete pregnancy and incident epithelial ovarian cancer among over 4,500 women who participated in two large Australian population-based case-control studies in 1990-1993 and 2002-2005. They provided responses to detailed questions about their reproductive histories and other personal factors. Summary odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) derived from each study using the same covariates were aggregated. We found no significant associations between the number of incomplete pregnancies and ovarian cancer, for parous (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.08) or nulliparous (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.48) women, nor for the number of spontaneous or induced abortions and ovarian cancer for parous women (OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.82, 1.09; OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.36) or nulliparous women (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.4; OR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.47, 1.38), respectively. A systematic review of 37 previous studies of the topic confirmed our findings that a history of incomplete pregnancy does not influence a woman’s risk of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Clypeotheca, a new skeletal structure in scleractinian corals : a potential stress indicator

Physiological responses to environmental stress are increasingly well studied in scleractinian corals. This work reports a new stress-related skeletal structure we term clypeotheca. Clypeotheca was observed in several livecollected common reef-building coral genera and a two to three kya subfossil specimen from Heron Reef, Great Barrier Reef and consists of an epitheca-like skeletal wall that seals over the surface of parts of the corallum in areas of stress or damage. It appears to form from a coordinated process wherein neighboring polyps and adjoining coenosarc seal themselves off from the surrounding environment as they contract and die. Clypeotheca forms from inward skeletal centripetal growth at the edges of corallites and by the merging of flange-like outgrowths that surround individual spines over the surface of the coenosteum. Microstructurally, the merged flanges are similar to upsidedown dissepiments and true epitheca. Clypeotheca is interpreted primarily as a response to stress that may help protect the colony from invasion of unhealthy tissues by parasites or disease by retracting tissues in areas that have become unhealthy for the polyps. Identification of skeletal responses of corals to environmental stress may enable the frequency of certain types of environmental stress to be documented in past environments. Such data may be important for understanding the nature of reef dynamics through intervals of climate change and for monitoring the effects of possible anthropogenic stress in modern coral reef habitats.

The prognostic significance of quality of life following breast cancer [Conference Abstract]

Introduction: Evidence suggests a positive association between quality of life (QOL). and overall survival(OS). among metastatic breast cancer (BC). patients, although the relationship in early-stage BC is unclear. This work examines the association between QOL and OS following a diagnosis of early-stage BC. ----- Methods: A population-based sample of Queensland women (n=287). with early-stage, invasive, unilateral BC, were prospectively observed for a median of 6.6 years. QOL was assessed at six and 18 months post-diagnosis using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast FACT-B+4. questionnaire. Raw scores for the FACT-B+4 scales were computed and individuals were categorised according to whether QOL declined, remained stable or improved over time. OS was measured from the date of diagnosis to the date of death or was censored at the date of last follow-up. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). for the association between QOL and OS were obtained using Cox proportional hazards survival models adjusted for confounding characteristics. ----- Results: A total of 27 (9.4%). women died during the follow-up period. Three baseline QOL scales (emotional, general and overall QOL) were significantly associated with OS, with RRs ranging between 0.89 95% CI: 0.81, 0.98; P=0.01. and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.99; P=0.03),indicating a 2%-11% reduced risk of death for every one unit increase in QOL. When QOL was categorised according to changes between six and 18 months post-diagnosis, analyses showed that for those who experienced declines in functional and physical QOL, risk of death increased by two- (95% CI: 1.43, 12.52; P<0.01) and four-fold (95% CI: 1.15, 7.19; P=0.02), respectively. Conclusions: This work indicates that specific QOL scales at six months post-diagnosis, and changes in certain QOL scales over the subsequent 12-month period (as measured by the FACT-B+4), are associated with overall survival in women with early-stage breast cancer.

Longitudinal patterns of weight in women diagnosed with breast cancer [Conference Abstract]

Introduction: Weight gain is a common concern following breast cancer and has been associated with negative health outcomes. As such, prevention of weight gain is of clinical interest. This work describes weight change between 6- and 18-months following a breast cancer diagnosis and explores the personal, treatment and behavioural characteristics associated with gains in weight. Methods: Body mass index was objectively assessed, at three-monthly intervals, on a population-based sample of women newly diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer (n=185). Changes in BMI between 6- and 18-months post-diagnosis were calculated, with gains of one or more being considered clinically detrimental to future health. Results: Approximately 60% of participants were overweight or obese at 6-months post-diagnosis. While BMI remained relatively stable across the testing period (range=27.3-27.8), 24% of participants experienced clinically relevant gains in BMI (median gains=1.9). Following adjustment for potential confounders, younger age (<45 years; Odds ratio, OR=9.8), being morbidly obese at baseline (OR=4.6) and receiving hormone therapy (OR=4.8) were characteristics associated with an increased odds (p<0.05) of gaining BMI. Other characteristics associated with gains in BMI were more extensive surgery and having a history of smoking, although these relationships were not supported statistically. In contrast, caring for younger children was associated with reduced risk of gaining BMI (OR=0.3, p=0.20). Conclusions: Clinically relevant weight gain between 6- and 18-months post-breast cancer diagnosis is an issue for one in four women, with certain subgroups being particularly susceptible. However, the majority of women diagnosed with breast cancer are overweight or obese and gains in body weight are common. Thus, interventions that address the importance of achieving and sustaining a healthy body weight, delivered to all women with breast cancer, may have greater public health impact than interventions targeting any specific breast cancer subgroup.

Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

Patterns of reporting to child protection services in Canada by healthcare and nonhealthcare professionals

Background: All Canadian jurisdictions require certain professionals to report suspected or observed child maltreatment. This study examined the types of maltreatment, level of harm and child functioning issues, controlling for family socioeconomic status, age and gender of the child reported by healthcare and non-healthcare professionals. Methods: We conducted chi-square analyses and logistic regression on a national child welfare sample from the 2003 Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS-2003) and compared the differences in professional reporting with its previous cycle (CIS-1998) using Bonferroni-corrected confidence intervals. Results: Our analysis of CIS-2003 data revealed that the majority of substantiated child maltreatment is reported to service agencies by non-healthcare professionals (57%), followed by non-professionals (33%) and healthcare professionals (10%). The number of professional reports increased 2.5 times between CIS-1998 and CIS-2003, while non-professionals’ increased 1.7 times. Of the total investigations, professional reports represented 59% in CIS-1998 and 67% in CIS-2003 (p<0.001). Compared to non-healthcare professionals, healthcare professionals more often reported younger children, children who experienced neglect and emotional maltreatment and those assessed as suffering harm and child functioning issues, but less often exposure to domestic violence. Conclusion: The results indicate that healthcare professionals played an important role in identifying children in need of protection considering harm and other child functioning issues. The authors discuss the reasons why underreporting is likely to remain an issue.

Sunglasses, traffic signals, and color vision deficiencies

Purpose: To determine (a) the effect of different sunglass tint colorations on traffic signal detection and recognition for color normal and color deficient observers, and (b) the adequacy of coloration requirements in current sunglass standards. Methods: Twenty color-normals and 49 color-deficient males performed a tracking task while wearing sunglasses of different colorations (clear, gray, green, yellow-green, yellow-brown, red-brown). At random intervals, simulated traffic light signals were presented against a white background at 5° to the right or left and observers were instructed to identify signal color (red/yellow/green) by pressing a response button as quickly as possible; response times and response errors were recorded. Results: Signal color and sunglass tint had significant effects on response times and error rates (p < 0.05), with significant between-color group differences and interaction effects. Response times for color deficient people were considerably slower than color normals for both red and yellow signals for all sunglass tints, but for green signals they were only noticeably slower with the green and yellow-green lenses. For most of the color deficient groups, there were recognition errors for yellow signals combined with the yellow-green and green tints. In addition, deuteranopes had problems for red signals combined with red-brown and yellow-brown tints, and protanopes had problems for green signals combined with the green tint and for red signals combined with the red-brown tint. Conclusions: Many sunglass tints currently permitted for drivers and riders cause a measurable decrement in the ability of color deficient observers to detect and recognize traffic signals. In general, combinations of signals and sunglasses of similar colors are of particular concern. This is prima facie evidence of a risk in the use of these tints for driving and cautions against the relaxation of coloration limits in sunglasses beyond those represented in the study.

Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

Objective We aimed to predict sub-national spatial variation in numbers of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium, and associated uncertainties, in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prior to implementation of national control programmes. Methods We used national field survey datasets covering a contiguous area 2,750 × 850 km, from 26,790 school-aged children (5–14 years) in 418 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict prevalence of high and low intensity infections and associated 95% credible intervals (CrI). Numbers infected were determined by multiplying predicted prevalence by numbers of school-aged children in 1 km2 pixels covering the study area. Findings Numbers of school-aged children with low-intensity infections were: 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580,286 in Niger. Numbers with high-intensity infections were: 416,009 in Burkina Faso, 511,845 in Mali and 254,150 in Niger. 95% CrIs (indicative of uncertainty) were wide; e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10–14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI 6200, 512,100). Conclusion National aggregate estimates for numbers infected mask important local variation, e.g. most S. haematobium infections in Niger occur in the Niger River valley. Prevalence of high-intensity infections was strongly clustered in foci in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in Niger. Populations in these foci are likely to carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should receive priority for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in predicted prevalence and numbers infected should be acknowledged and taken into consideration by control programme planners.

The efficacy of an augmented virtual reality system to alleviate pain in children undergoing burns dressing changes : a randomised controlled trial

In children, the pain and anxiety associated with acute burn dressing changes can be severe, with drug treatment alone frequently proving to be inadequate. Virtual reality (VR) systems have been successfully trialled in limited numbers of adult and paediatric burn patients. Augmented reality (AR) differs from VR in that it overlays virtual images onto the physical world, instead of creating a complete virtual world. This prospective randomised controlled trial investigated the use of AR as an adjunct to analgesia and sedation in children with acute burns. Forty-two children (30 male and 12 female), with an age range of 3–14 years (median age 9 years) and a total burn surface area ranging from 1 to 16% were randomised into a treatment (AR) arm and a control (basic cognitive therapy) arm after administration of analgesia and/or sedation. Pain scores, pulse rates (PR), respiratory rates (RR) and oxygen saturations (SaO2) were recorded pre-procedurally, at 10 min intervals and post-procedurally. Parents were also asked to grade their child's overall pain score for the dressing change. Mean pain scores were significantly lower (p = 0.0060) in the AR group compared to the control group, as were parental pain assessment scores (p = 0.015). Respiratory and pulse rates showed significant changes over time within groups, however, these were not significantly different between the two study groups. Oxygen saturation did not differ significantly over time or between the two study groups. This trial shows that augmented reality is a useful adjunct to pharmacological analgesia.

Using samples to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of a surveillance process

Determining sensitivity and specificity of a postoperative infection surveillance process is a difficult undertaking. Because postoperative infections are rare, vast numbers of negative results exist, and it is often not reasonable to assess them all. This study gives a methodological framework for estimating sensitivity and specificity by taking only a small sample of the number of patients who test negative and comparing their findings to the reference or “gold standard” rather than comparing the findings of all patients to the gold standard. It provides a formula for deriving confidence intervals for these estimates and a guide to minimum requirements for sampling results.

Determination of optimal preventive maintenance strategy for serial production lines

A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal Preventive Maintenance decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple PM actions over multiple intervals. Both risk related cost and maintenance related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimized considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimize Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Failure analysis of engineering systems with preventive maintenance and failure interactions

Optimal operation and maintenance of engineering systems heavily rely on the accurate prediction of their failures. Most engineering systems, especially mechanical systems, are susceptible to failure interactions. These failure interactions can be estimated for repairable engineering systems when determining optimal maintenance strategies for these systems. An extended Split System Approach is developed in this paper. The technique is based on the Split System Approach and a model for interactive failures. The approach was applied to simulated data. The results indicate that failure interactions will increase the hazard of newly repaired components. The intervals of preventive maintenance actions of a system with failure interactions, will become shorter compared with scenarios where failure interactions do not exist.

Can students with low vision maintain sustained reading rates?

Purpose: Students with low vision may be disadvantaged when compared with their normally sighted peers, as they frequently work at very short working distances and need to use low vision devices. The aim of this study was to examine the sustained reading rates of students with low vision and compare them with their peers with normal vision. The effects of visual acuity, acuity reserve and age on reading rate were also examined. Method: Fifty-six students (10 to 16 years of age), 26 with low vision and 30 with normal vision were required to read text continuously for 30 minutes. Their position in the text was recorded at two-minute intervals. Distance and near visual acuity, working distance, cause of low vision, reading rates and reading habits were recorded. Results: A total of 80.7 per cent of the students with low vision maintained a constant reading rate during the 30 minutes of reading, although they read at approximately half the rate (104 wpm) compared with their normally sighted peers (195 wpm). Only four of the low vision subjects could not complete the reading task. Reading rates increased significantly with acuity reserve and distance and near visual acuity but there was no significant relationship between age and sustained reading rate. Conclusions: The majority of students with low vision were able to maintain appropriate reading rates to cope in integrated educational settings. Surprisingly only relatively few subjects (16 per cent) used their prescribed low vision devices even though the average accommodative demand was 9 D and generally, they revealed a greater dislike of reading compared to students with normal vision.