Evaluation of risk factors leading to cost overrun in delivery of highway construction projects

Accurate owner budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for highway construction projects. However, transportation projects have historically experienced significant construction cost overruns from the time the decision to build has been taken by the owner. This paper addresses the problem of why highway projects overrun their predicted costs. It identifies the owner risk variables that contribute to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis, expert elicitation, and the nominal group technique to establish groups of importance ranked owner risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is also used to investigate any correlation of the percentage of cost overrun with risks, together with attributes such as highway project type, indexed cost, geographics location, and project delivery method. The research results indicate a correlation between the reciprocal of project budgets size and percentage cost overrun. This can be useful for owners in determining more realistic decision-to-build highway budget estimates by taking into account the economies of scale associated with larger projects.

Compliance, normality and the patient on peritoneal dialysis

Monitoring and enhancing patient compliance with peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a recurring and problematic theme in the renal literature. A growing body of literature also argues that a failure to understand the patient's perspective of compliance may be contributing to these problems. The aim of this study was to understand the concept of compliance with PD from the patient's perspective. Using the case study approach recommended by Stake (1995), five patients on PD consented to in-depth interviews that explored the meaning of compliance in the context of PD treatment and lifestyle regimens recommended by health professionals. Participants also discussed factors that influenced their choices to follow, disregard, or refine these regimens. Results indicate that health professionals acting in alignment with individual patient needs and wishes, and demonstrating an awareness of the constraints under which patients operate and the strengths they bring to their treatment, may be the most significant issues to consider with respect to definitions of PD compliance and the development of related compliance interventions. Aspects of compliance that promoted relative normality were also important to the participants in this study and tended to result in greater concordance with health professionals' advice.

Axial length charges during accommodation in myopes and emmetropes

Purpose: To investigate the influence of accommodation upon axial length (and a comprehensive range of ocular biometric parameters), in populations of young adult myopic and emmetropic subjects. Methods: Forty young adult subjects had ocular biometry measured utilizing a non-contact optical biometer (Lenstar LS 900) based upon the principle of optical low coherence reflectometry, under three different accommodation demands (0 D, 3 D and 6 D). Subjects were classified as emmetropes (n=19) or myopes (n=21) based upon their spherical equivalent refraction (mean emmetropic refraction -0.05 ± 0.27DS and mean myopic refraction -1.82 ± 0.84 DS). Results: Axial length changed significantly with accommodation, with a mean increase of 11.9 ± 12.3 µm and 24.1 ± 22.7 µm for the 3 D and 6 D accommodation stimuli respectively. A significant axial elongation associated with accommodation was still evident even following correction of the axial length data for potential error due to lens thickness change. The mean ‘corrected’ increase in axial length was 5.2 ± 11.2 µm, and 7.4 ± 18.9 µm for the 3 D and 6 D stimuli respectively. There was no significant difference between the myopic and emmetropic populations in terms of the magnitude of change in axial length with accommodation, regardless of whether the data were corrected or not. A number of other ocular biometric parameters, such as anterior chamber depth, lens thickness and vitreous chamber depth also exhibited significant change with accommodation. The myopic and emmetropic populations also exhibited no significant difference in the magnitude of change in these parameters with accommodation. Conclusions: The eye undergoes a significant axial elongation associated with a brief period of accommodation, and the magnitude of this change in eye length increases for larger accommodation demands, however there is no significant difference in the magnitude of eye elongation in myopic and emmetropic subjects.

Sustained convergence, axial length, and corneal topography

Purpose: To investigate the influence of convergence on axial length and corneal topography in young adult subjects.---------- Methods: Fifteen emmetropic young adult subjects with normal binocular vision had axial length and corneal topography measured immediately before and after a 15-min period of base out (BO) prismatic spectacle lens wear. Two different magnitude prismatic spectacles were worn in turn (8 [DELTA] BO and 16 [DELTA] BO), and for both tasks, distance fixation was maintained for the duration of lens wear. Eight subjects returned on a separate day for further testing and had axial length measured before, during, and immediately after a 15-min convergence task.---------- Results: No significant change was found to occur in axial length either during or after the sustained convergence tasks (p > 0.6). Some small but significant changes in corneal topography were found to occur after sustained convergence. The most significant corneal change was observed after the 16 [DELTA] BO prism wear. The corneal refractive power spherocylinder power vector J0 was found to change by a small (mean change of 0.03 D after the 16 [DELTA] BO task) but statistically significant (p = 0.03) amount as a result of the convergence task (indicative of a reduction in with-the-rule corneal astigmatism after convergence). Corneal axial power was found to exhibit a significant flattening in superior regions. Conclusions: Axial length appears largely unchanged by a period of sustained convergence. However, small but significant changes occur in the topography of the cornea after convergence.

Regional changes in corneal thickness and shape with soft contact lenses

Purpose: To investigate the influence of soft contact lenses on regional variations in corneal thickness and shape while taking account of natural diurnal variations in these corneal parameters. Methods: Twelve young, healthy subjects wore 4 different types of soft contact lenses on 4 different days. The lenses were of two different materials (silicone hydrogel, hydrogel), designs (spherical, toric) and powers (–3.00, –7.00 D). Corneal thickness and topography measurements were taken before and after 8 hours of lens wear and on two days without lens wear, using the Pentacam HR system. Results: The hydrogel toric contact lens caused the greatest level of corneal thickening in the central (20.3 ± 10.0 microns) as well as peripheral cornea (24.1 ± 9.1 microns) (p < 0.001) with an obvious regional swelling of the cornea beneath the stabilizing zones. The anterior corneal surface generally showed slight flattening. All contact lenses resulted in central posterior corneal steepening and this was weakly correlated with central corneal swelling (p = 0.03) and peripheral corneal swelling (p = 0.01). Conclusions: There was an obvious regional corneal swelling apparent after wear of the hydrogel soft toric lenses, due to the location of the thicker stabilization zones of the toric lenses. However with the exception of the hydrogel toric lens, the magnitude of corneal swelling induced by the contact lenses over the 8 hours of wear was less than the natural diurnal thinning of the cornea over this same period.

Subjective blur limits for cylinder

Purpose: To compare subjective blur limits for cylinder and defocus. ---------- Method: Blur was induced with a deformable, adaptive-optics mirror when either the subjects’ own astigmatisms were corrected or when both astigmatisms and higher-order aberrations were corrected. Subjects were cyclopleged and had 5 mm artificial pupils. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35 and 0.6 logMAR) were presented on white backgrounds. Results: For ten subjects, blur limits were approximately 50% greater for cylinder than for defocus (in diopters). While there were considerable effects of axis for individuals, overall this was not strong, with the 0° (or 180°) axis having about 20% greater limits than oblique axes. In a second experiment with text (equivalent in angle to N10 print at 40 cm distance), cylinder blur limits for 6 subjects were approximately 30% greater than those for defocus; this percentage was slightly smaller than for the three letters. Blur limits of the text were intermediate between those of 0.35 logMAR and 0.6 logMAR letters. Extensive blur limit measurements for one subject with single letters did not show expected interactions between target detail orientation and cylinder axis. ---------- Conclusion: Subjective blur limits for cylinder are 30%-50% greater than those for defocus, with the overall influence of cylinder axis being 20%.

Subjective blur limits for higher order aberrations

Purpose: We compared subjective blur limits for defocus and the higher-order aberrations of coma, trefoil, and spherical aberration. ---------- Methods: Spherical aberration was presented in both Zernike and Seidel forms. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35, and 0.6 logMAR) on white backgrounds were blurred using an adaptive optics system for six subjects under cycloplegia with 5 mm artificial pupils. Three blur criteria of just noticeable, just troublesome, and just objectionable were used.---------- Results: When expressed as wave aberration coefficients, the just noticeable blur limits for coma and trefoil were similar to those for defocus, whereas the just noticeable limits for Zernike spherical aberration and Seidel spherical aberration (the latter given as an “rms equivalent”) were considerably smaller and larger, respectively, than defocus limits.---------- Conclusions: Blur limits increased more quickly for the higher order aberrations than for defocus as the criterion changed from just noticeable to just troublesome and then to just objectionable.

Knowledge and attitudes about Vitamin D and impact on sun protection practices among urban office workers in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Sun exposure is the main source of vitamin D. Increasing scientific and media attention to the potential health benefits of sun exposure may lead to changes in sun exposure behaviors. Methods: To provide data that might help frame public health messages, we conducted an online survey among office workers in Brisbane, Australia, to determine knowledge and attitudes about vitamin D and associations of these with sun protection practices. Of the 4,709 people invited to participate, 2,867 (61%) completed the questionnaire. This analysis included 1,971 (69%) participants who indicated that they had heard about vitamin D. Results: Lack of knowledge about vitamin D was apparent. Eighteen percent of people were unaware of the bone benefits of vitamin D but 40% listed currently unconfirmed benefits. Over half of the participants indicated that more than 10 minutes in the sun was needed to attain enough vitamin D in summer, and 28% indicated more than 20 minutes in winter. This was significantly associated with increased time outdoors and decreased sunscreen use. People believing sun protection might cause vitamin D deficiency (11%) were less likely to be frequent sunscreen users (summer odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.75). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there is some confusion about sun exposure and vitamin D, and that this may result in reduced sun-protective behavior. Impact: More information is needed about vitamin D production in the skin. In the interim, education campaigns need to specifically address the vitamin D issue to ensure that skin cancer incidence does not increase.

VO2max in overweight and obese adults

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine whether adiposity affects the attainment of VO2max. Methods: Sixty-seven male and 68 female overweight (body mass index (BMI) = 25-29.9 kg·m-2) and obese (BMI >= 30 kg·m-2) participants undertook a graded treadmill test to volitional exhaustion (phase 1) followed by a verification test (phase 2) to determine the proportion who could achieve a plateau in VO2 and other "maximal" markers (RER, lactate, HR, RPE). Results: At the end of phase 1, 46% of the participants reached a plateau in VO2, 83% increased HR to within 11 beats of age-predicted maximum, 89% reached an RER of >=1.15, 70% reached a blood lactate concentration of >=8 mmol·L-1, and 74% reached an RPE of >=18. No significant differences between genders and between BMI groups were found with the exception of blood lactate concentration (males = 84% vs females = 56%, P < 0.05). Neither gender nor fatness predicted the number of other markers attained, and attainment of other markers did not differentiate whether a VO2 plateau was achieved. The verification test (phase 2) revealed that an additional 52 individuals (39%) who did not exhibit a plateau in V·O2 in phase 1 had no further increase in VO2 in phase 2 despite an increase in workload. Conclusions: These findings indicate that the absence of a plateau in VO2 alone is not indicative of a failure to reach a true maximal VO2 and that individuals with excessive body fat are no less likely than "normal-weight" individuals to exhibit a plateau in VO2 provided that the protocol is appropriate and encouragement to exercise to maximal exertion is provided.

Corona ions from overhead transmission voltage powerlines : effect on DC e-field and ambient particle concentration levels

Along with their essential role in electricity transmission and distribution, some powerlines also generate large concentrations of corona ions. This study aimed at comprehensive investigation of corona ions, vertical dc e-field, ambient aerosol particle charge and particle number concentration levels in the proximity of some high/sub-transmission voltage powerlines. The influence of meteorology on the instantaneous value of these parameters, and the possible existence of links or associations between the parameters measured were also statistically investigated. The presence of positive and negative polarities of corona ions was associated with variation in the mean vertical dc e-field, ambient ion and particle charge concentration level. Though these variations increased with wind speed, their values also decreased with distance from the powerlines. Predominately positive polarities of ions were recorded up to a distance of 150 m (with the maximum values recorded 50 m downwind of the powerlines). At 200 m from the source, negative ions predominated. Particle number concentration levels however remained relatively constant (103 particle cm-3) irrespective of the sampling site and distance from the powerlines. Meteorological factors of temperature, humidity and wind direction showed no influence on the electrical parameters measured. The study also discovered that e-field measurements were not necessarily a true representation of the ground-level ambient ion/particle charge concentrations.

Effect of cabin ventilation rate on ultrafine particle exposure inside automobiles

We alternately measured on-road and in-vehicle ultrafine (<100 nm) particle (UFP) concentration for 5 passenger vehicles that comprised an age range of 18 years. A range of cabin ventilation settings were assessed during 301 trips through a 4 km road tunnel in Sydney, Australia. Outdoor airflow(ventilation) rates under these settings were quantified on open roads using tracer gas techniques. Significant variability in tunnel trip average median in-cabin/on-road (I/O) UFP ratios was observed (0.08 to ∼1.0). Based on data spanning all test automobiles and ventilation settings, a positive linear relationship was found between outdoor air flow rate and I/O ratio, with the former accounting for a substantial proportion of variation in the latter (R2 ) 0.81). UFP concentrations recorded in cabin during tunnel travel were significantly higher than those reported by comparable studies performed on open roadways. A simple mathematical model afforded the ability to predict tunnel trip average in-cabin UFP concentrations with good accuracy. Our data indicate that under certain conditions, in-cabin UFP exposures incurred during tunnel travel may contribute significantly to daily exposure. The UFP exposure of automobile occupants appears strongly related to their choice of ventilation setting and vehicle.

Critical analysis of high particle number emissions from accelerating compressed natural gas buses

Compressed natural gas (CNG) engines are thought to be less harmful to the environment than conventional diesel engines, especially in terms of particle emissions. Although, this is true with respect to particulate matter (PM) emissions, results of particle number (PN) emission comparisons have been inconclusive. In this study, results of on-road and dynamometer studies of buses were used to derive several important conclusions. We show that, although PN emissions from CNG buses are significantly lower than from diesel buses at low engine power, they become comparable at high power. For diesel buses, PN emissions are not significantly different between acceleration and operation at steady maximum power. However, the corresponding PN emissions from CNG buses when accelerating are an order of magnitude greater than when operating at steady maximum power. During acceleration under heavy load, PN emissions from CNG buses are an order of magnitude higher than from diesel buses. The particles emitted from CNG buses are too small to contribute to PM10 emissions or contribute to a reduction of visibility, and may consist of semivolatile nanoparticles.

Oxidative potential of logwood and pellet burning particles assessed by a novel profluorescent nitroxide probe

This study reports the potential toxicological impact of particles produced during biomass combustion by an automatic pellet boiler and a traditional logwood stove under various combustion conditions using a novel profluorescent nitroxide probe BPEAnit. This probe is weakly fluorescent, but yields strong fluorescence emission upon radical trapping or redox activity. Samples were collected by bubbling aerosol through an impinger containing BPEAnit solution, followed by fluorescence measurement. The fluorescence of BPEAnit was measured for particles produced during various combustion phases, at the beginning of burning (cold start), stable combustion after refilling with the fuel (warm start) and poor burning conditions. For particles produced by the logwood stove under cold-start conditions significantly higher amounts of reactive species per unit of particulate mass were observed compared to emissions produced during a warm start. In addition, sampling of logwood burning emissions after passing through a thermodenuder at 250oC resulted in an 80-100% reduction of the fluorescence signal of BPEAnit probe, indicating that the majority of reactive species were semivolatile. Moreover, the amount of reactive species showed a strong correlation with the amount of particulate organic material. This indicates the importance of semivolatile organics in particle-related toxicity. Particle emissions from the pellet boiler, although of similar mass concentration, were not observed to lead to an increase in fluorescence signal during any of the combustion phases.

Photo-cross-linked poly(D,L-lactide)-based networks. Structural characterization by HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy and hydrolytic degradation behavior

To date, biodegradable networks and particularly their kinetic chain lengths have been characterized by analysis of their degradation products in solution. We characterize the network itself by NMR analysis in the solvent-swollen state under magic angle spinning conditions. The networks were prepared by photoinitiated cross-linking of poly(dl-lactide)−dimethacrylate macromers (5 kg/mol) in the presence of an unreactive diluent. Using diffusion filtering and 2D correlation spectroscopy techniques, all network components are identified. By quantification of network-bound photoinitiator fragments, an average kinetic chain length of 9 ± 2 methacrylate units is determined. The PDLLA macromer solution was also used with a dye to prepare computer-designed structures by stereolithography. For these networks structures, the average kinetic chain length is 24 ± 4 methacrylate units. In all cases the calculated molecular weights of the polymethacrylate chains after degradation are maximally 8.8 kg/mol, which is far below the threshold for renal clearance. Upon incubation in phosphate buffered saline at 37 °C, the networks show a similar mass loss profile in time as linear high-molecular-weight PDLLA (HMW PDLLA). The mechanical properties are preserved longer for the PDLLA networks than for HMW PDLLA. The initial tensile strength of 47 ± 2 MPa does not decrease significantly for the first 15 weeks, while HMW PDLLA lost 85 ± 5% of its strength within 5 weeks. The physical properties, kinetic chain length, and degradation profile of these photo-cross-linked PDLLA networks make them most suited materials for orthopedic applications and use in (bone) tissue engineering.

Health risk from the use of roof-harvested rainwater in Southeast Queensland, Australia, as potable or nonpotable water, determined using quantitative microbial risk assessment

A total of 214 rainwater samples from 82 tanks were collected in urban Southeast Queensland (SEQ) in Australia and analysed for the zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogen using real-time binary PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to potential pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater. Of the 214 samples tested, 10.7%, 9.8%, and 5.6%, and 0.4% samples were positive for Salmonella invA, Giardia lamblia β-giardin , Legionella pneumophila mip, and Campylobacter jejuni mapA genes. Cryptosporidium parvum could not be detected. The estimated numbers of viable Salmonella spp., G. lamblia β-giradin, and L. pneumophila genes ranged from 1.6 × 101 to 9.5 × 101 cells, 1.4 × 10-1 to 9.0 × 10-1 cysts, and 1.5 × 101 to 4.3 × 101 per 1000 ml of water, respectively. Six risk scenarios were considered from exposure to Salmonella spp., G. lamblia and L. pneumophila. For Salmonella spp., and G. lamblia, these scenarios were: (1) liquid ingestion due to drinking of rainwater on a daily basis (2) accidental liquid ingestion due to garden hosing twice a week (3) aerosol ingestion due to showering on a daily basis, and (4) aerosol ingestion due to hosing twice a week. For L. pneumophila, these scenarios were: (5) aerosol inhalation due to showering on a daily basis, and (6) aerosol inhalation due to hosing twice a week. The risk of infection from Salmonella spp., G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila associated with the use of rainwater for showering and garden hosing was calculated to be well below the threshold value of one extra infection per 10,000 persons per year in urban SEQ. However, the risk of infection from ingesting Salmonella spp. and G. lamblia via drinking exceeds this threshold value, and indicates that if undisinfected rainwater were ingested by drinking, then the gastrointestinal diseases of Salmonellosis and Giardiasis is expected to range from 5.0 × 100 to 2.8 × 101 (Salmonellosis) and 1.0 × 101 to 6.4 × 101 (Giardiasis) cases per 10,000 persons per year, respectively. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically examined. Nonetheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.