Tax morale and conditional cooperation

Why so many people pay their taxes, even though fines and audit probability are low, is a central question in the tax compliance literature. Positing a homo oeconomicus having a refined motivation structure sheds light on this puzzle. This paper provides empirical evidence for the relevance of conditional cooperation, using survey data from 30 West and East European countries. We find a high correlation between perceived tax evasion and tax morale. The results remain robust after exploiting endogeneity and conducting several robustness tests. We also observe a strong positive correlation between institutional quality and tax mmorale. Keywords: Tax morale; Tax compliance; Tax evasion; Pro-social behavior; Institutions

Exponentiated gradient algorithms for conditional random fields and max-margin Markov Networks

Log-linear and maximum-margin models are two commonly-used methods in supervised machine learning, and are frequently used in structured prediction problems. Efficient learning of parameters in these models is therefore an important problem, and becomes a key factor when learning from very large data sets. This paper describes exponentiated gradient (EG) algorithms for training such models, where EG updates are applied to the convex dual of either the log-linear or max-margin objective function; the dual in both the log-linear and max-margin cases corresponds to minimizing a convex function with simplex constraints. We study both batch and online variants of the algorithm, and provide rates of convergence for both cases. In the max-margin case, O(1/ε) EG updates are required to reach a given accuracy ε in the dual; in contrast, for log-linear models only O(log(1/ε)) updates are required. For both the max-margin and log-linear cases, our bounds suggest that the online EG algorithm requires a factor of n less computation to reach a desired accuracy than the batch EG algorithm, where n is the number of training examples. Our experiments confirm that the online algorithms are much faster than the batch algorithms in practice. We describe how the EG updates factor in a convenient way for structured prediction problems, allowing the algorithms to be efficiently applied to problems such as sequence learning or natural language parsing. We perform extensive evaluation of the algorithms, comparing them to L-BFGS and stochastic gradient descent for log-linear models, and to SVM-Struct for max-margin models. The algorithms are applied to a multi-class problem as well as to a more complex large-scale parsing task. In all these settings, the EG algorithms presented here outperform the other methods.

‘Expected satiety’ changes hunger and fullness in the inter-meal interval

Previously, we have shown that foods differ markedly in the satiety that they are expected to confer (compared calorie-for-calorie). In the present study we tested the hypothesis that ‘expected satiety’ plays a causal role in the satiety that is experienced after a food has been consumed. Before lunch, participants (N = 32) were shown the ingredients of a fruit smoothie. Half were shown a small portion of fruit and half were shown a large portion. Participants then assessed the expected satiety of the smoothie and provided appetite ratings, before, and for three hours after its consumption. As anticipated, expected satiety was significantly higher in the ‘large portion’ condition. Moreover, and consistent with our hypothesis, participants reported significantly less hunger and significantly greater fullness in the large portion condition. Importantly, this effect endured throughout the test period (for three hours). Together, these findings confirm previous reports indicating that beliefs and expectations can have marked effects on satiety and they show that this effect can persist well into the inter-meal interval. Potential explanations are discussed, including the prospect that satiety is moderated by memories of expected satiety that are encoded around the time that a meal is consumed.

The obesity-associated polymorphisms FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 and endometrial cancer risk in non-Hispanic white women

Overweight and obesity are strongly associated with endometrial cancer. Several independent genome-wide association studies recently identified two common polymorphisms, FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313, that are linked to increased body weight and obesity. We examined the association of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 with endometrial cancer risk in a pooled analysis of nine case-control studies within the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). This analysis included 3601 non-Hispanic white women with histologically-confirmed endometrial carcinoma and 5275 frequency-matched controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 genotypes to the risk of endometrial cancer. Among control women, both the FTO rs9939609 A and MC4R rs17782313 C alleles were associated with a 16% increased risk of being overweight (p = 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). In case-control analyses, carriers of the FTO rs9939609 AA genotype were at increased risk of endometrial carcinoma compared to women with the TT genotype [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.32, p = 0.01]. However, this association was no longer apparent after adjusting for body mass index (BMI), suggesting mediation of the gene-disease effect through body weight. The MC4R rs17782313 polymorphism was not related to endometrial cancer risk (per allele OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91–1.06; p = 0.68). FTO rs9939609 is a susceptibility marker for white non-Hispanic women at higher risk of endometrial cancer. Although FTO rs9939609 alone might have limited clinical or public health significance for identifying women at high risk for endometrial cancer beyond that of excess body weight, further investigation of obesity-related genetic markers might help to identify the pathways that influence endometrial carcinogenesis.

A case-control study of ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company, Guangzhou, China

Higher ambient temperatures will increase heat stress on workers, leading to impacts upon their individual health and productivity. In particular, research has indicated that higher ambient temperatures can increase the prevalence of urolithiasis. This thesis examines the relationship between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company in Guangzhou, China, and makes recommendations for minimising the possible impacts of high ambient temperatures on urolithiasis. A retrospective 1:4 matched case-control study was performed to investigate the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis. Ambient heat exposure was characterised by total exposure time, type of work, department and length of service. The data were obtained from the affiliated hospital of the shipbuilding company under study for the period 2003 to 2010. A conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between heat exposure and urolithiasis. This study found that the odds ratio (OR) of urolithiasis for total exposure time was 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.8). Eight types of work in the shipbuilding company were investigated, including welder, assembler, production security and quality inspector, planing machine operator, spray painter, gas-cutting worker and indoor employee. Five out of eight types of work had significantly higher risks for urolithiasis, and four of the five mainly consisted of outdoors work with ORs of 4.4 (95% CI: 1.7–11.4) for spray painter, 3.8 (95% CI: 1.9–7.2) for welder, 2.7 (95% CI: 1.4–5.0) for production security and quality inspector, and 2.2 (95% CI: 1.1–4.3) for assembler, compared to the reference group (indoor employee). Workers with abnormal blood pressure (hypertension) were more likely to have urolithiasis with an OR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0–2.5) compared to those without hypertension. This study contributes to the understanding of the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in China. In the context of global climate change, this is particularly important because rising temperatures are expected to increase the prevalence of urolithiasis among outdoor workers, putting greater pressure on productivity, occupational health management and health care systems. The results of this study have clear implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that more attention is required to protect outdoor workers from heat-related urolithiasis.

The role of intensity of interval training on fat oxidation and eating behaviour in overweight/obese men

The increasing prevalence of obesity in society has been associated with a number of atherogenic risk factors such as insulin resistance. Aerobic training is often recommended as a strategy to induce weight loss, with a greater impact of high-intensity levels on cardiovascular function and insulin sensitivity, and a greater impact of moderate-intensity levels on fat oxidation. Anaerobic high-intensity (supramaximal) interval training has been advocated to improve cardiovascular function, insulin sensitivity and fat oxidation. However, obese individuals tend to have a lower tolerance of high-intensity exercise due to discomfort. Furthermore, some obese individuals may compensate for the increased energy expenditure by eating more and/or becoming less active. Recently, both moderate- and high-intensity aerobic interval training have been advocated as alternative approaches. However, it is still uncertain as to which approach is more effective in terms of increasing fat oxidation given the issues with levels of fitness and motivation, and compensatory behaviours. Accordingly, the objectives of this thesis were to compare the influence of moderate- and high-intensity interval training on fat oxidation and eating behaviour in overweight/obese men. Two exercise interventions were undertaken by 10-12 overweight/obese men to compare their responses to study variables, including fat oxidation and eating behaviour during moderate- and high-intensity interval training (MIIT and HIIT). The acute training intervention was a methodological study designed to examine the validity of using exercise intensity from the graded exercise test (GXT) - which measured the intensity that elicits maximal fat oxidation (FATmax) - to prescribe interval training during 30-min MIIT. The 30-min MIIT session involved 5-min repetitions of workloads 20% below and 20% above the FATmax. The acute intervention was extended to involve HIIT in a cross-over design to compare the influence of MIIT and HIIT on eating behaviour using subjective appetite sensation and food preference through the liking and wanting test. The HIIT consisted of 15-sec interval training at 85 %VO2peak interspersed by 15-sec unloaded recovery, with a total mechanical work equal to MIIT. The medium term training intervention was a cross-over 4-week (12 sessions) MIIT and HIIT exercise training with a 6-week detraining washout period. The MIIT sessions consisted of 5-min cycling stages at ±20% of mechanical work at 45 %VO2peak, and the HIIT sessions consisted of repetitive 30-sec work at 90 %VO2peak and 30-sec interval rests, during identical exercise sessions of between 30 and 45 mins. Assessments included a constant-load test (45 %VO2peak for 45 mins) followed by 60-min recovery at baseline and the end of 4-week training, to determine fat oxidation rate. Participants’ responses to exercise were measured using blood lactate (BLa), heart rate (HR) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and were measured during the constant-load test and in the first intervention training session of every week during training. Eating behaviour responses were assessed by measuring subjective appetite sensations, liking and wanting and ad libitum energy intake. Results of the acute intervention showed that FATmax is a valid method to estimate VO2 and BLa, but is not valid to estimate HR and RPE in the MIIT session. While the average rate of fat oxidation during 30-min MIIT was comparable with the rate of fat oxidation at FATmax (0.16 ±0.09 and 0.14 ±0.08 g/min, respectively), fat oxidation was significantly higher at minute 25 of MIIT (P≤0.01). In addition, there was no significant difference between MIIT and HIIT in the rate of appetite sensations after exercise, but there was a tendency towards a lower rate of hunger after HIIT. Different intensities of interval exercise also did not affect explicit liking or implicit wanting. Results of the medium-term intervention indicated that current interval training levels did not affect body composition, fasting insulin and fasting glucose. Maximal aerobic capacity significantly increased (P≤0.01) (2.8 and 7.0% after MIIT and HIIT respectively) during GXT, and fat oxidation significantly increased (P≤0.01) (96 and 43% after MIIT and HIIT respectively) during the acute constant-load exercise test. RPE significantly decreased after HIIT greater than MIIT (P≤0.05), and the decrease in BLa was greater during the constant-load test after HIIT than MIIT, but this difference did not reach statistical significance (P=0.09). In addition, following constant-load exercise, exercise-induced hunger and desire to eat decreased after HIIT greater than MIIT but were not significant (p value for desire to eat was 0.07). Exercise-induced liking of high-fat sweet (HFSW) and high-fat non-sweet (HFNS) foods increased after MIIT and decreased after HIIT (p value for HFNS was 0.09). The intervention explained 12.4% of the change in fat intake (p = 0.07). This research is significant in that it confirmed two points in the acute study. While the rate of fat oxidation increased during MIIT, the average rate of fat oxidation during 30-min MIIT was comparable with the rate of fat oxidation at FATmax. In addition, manipulating the intensity of acute interval exercise did not affect appetite sensations and liking and wanting. In the medium-term intervention, constant-load exercise-induced fat oxidation significantly increased after interval training, independent of exercise intensity. In addition, desire to eat, explicit liking for HFNS and fat intake collectively confirmed that MIIT is accompanied by a greater compensation of eating behaviour than HIIT. Findings from this research will assist in developing exercise strategies to provide obese men with various training options. In addition, the finding that overweight/obese men expressed a lower RPE and decreased BLa after HIIT compared with MIIT is contrary to the view that obese individuals may not tolerate high-intensity interval training. Therefore, high-intensity interval training can be advocated among the obese adult male population. Future studies may extend this work by using a longer-term intervention.

Identify disorders in health records using Conditional Random Fields and Metamap: AEHRC at ShARe/CLEF 2013 eHealth Evaluation Lab Task 1

The Australian e-Health Research Centre (AEHRC) recently participated in the ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab Task 1. The goal of this task is to individuate mentions of disorders in free-text electronic health records and map disorders to SNOMED CT concepts in the UMLS metathesaurus. This paper details our participation to this ShARe/CLEF task. Our approaches are based on using the clinical natural language processing tool Metamap and Conditional Random Fields (CRF) to individuate mentions of disorders and then to map those to SNOMED CT concepts. Empirical results obtained on the 2013 ShARe/CLEF task highlight that our instance of Metamap (after ltering irrelevant semantic types), although achieving a high level of precision, is only able to identify a small amount of disorders (about 21% to 28%) from free-text health records. On the other hand, the addition of the CRF models allows for a much higher recall (57% to 79%) of disorders from free-text, without sensible detriment in precision. When evaluating the accuracy of the mapping of disorders to SNOMED CT concepts in the UMLS, we observe that the mapping obtained by our ltered instance of Metamap delivers state-of-the-art e ectiveness if only spans individuated by our system are considered (`relaxed' accuracy).

Are two threats worse than one? The effects of face race and emotional expression on fear conditioning

Facial cues of racial outgroup or anger mediate fear learning that is resistant to extinction. Whether this resistance is potentiated if fear is conditioned to angry, other race faces has not been established. Two groups of Caucasian participants were conditioned with two happy and two angry face conditional stimuli (CSs). During acquisition, one happy and one angry face were paired with an aversive unconditional stimulus whereas the second happy and angry faces were presented alone. CS face race (Caucasian, African American) was varied between groups. During habituation, electrodermal responses were larger to angry faces regardless of race and declined less to other race faces. Extinction was immediate for Caucasian happy faces, delayed for angry faces regardless of race, and slowest for happy racial outgroup faces. Combining the facial cues of other race and anger does not enhance resistance to extinction of fear.

Effect of aerobic interval training and caffeine on blood platelet function

Purpose: Hyperactive platelets contribute to the thrombotic response in humans, and exercise transiently increases platelet function. Caffeine is routinely used by athletes as an ergogenic aid, but the combined effect of exercise and caffeine on platelet function has not been investigated. Methods: Twelve healthy males were randomly assigned to one of four groups and undertook four experimental trials of a high-intensity aerobic interval training (AIT) bout or rest with ingestion of caffeine (3 mg·kg-1) or placebo. AIT was 8 × 5 min at approximately 75% peak power output (approximately 80% V?O2peak) and 1-min recovery (approximately 40% peak power output, approximately 50% V?O2peak) intervals. Blood/urine was collected before, 60, and 90 min after capsule ingestion and analyzed for platelet aggregation/activation. Results: AIT increased platelet reactivity to adenosine diphosphate (placebo 30.3%, caffeine 13.4%, P < 0.05) and collagen (placebo 10.8%, caffeine 5.1%, P < 0.05) compared with rest. Exercise placebo increased adenosine diphosphate-induced aggregation 90 min postingestion compared with baseline (40.5%, P < 0.05), but the increase when exercise was combined with caffeine was small (6.6%). During the resting caffeine protocol, collagen-induced aggregation was reduced (-4.3%, P < 0.05). AIT increased expression of platelet activation marker PAC-1 with exercise placebo (P < 0.05) but not when combined with caffeine. Conclusion: A single bout of AIT increases platelet function, but caffeine ingestion (3 mg·kg) does not exacerbate platelet function at rest or in response to AIT. Our results provide new information showing caffeine at a dose that can elicit ergogenic effects on performance has no detrimental effect on platelet function and may have the potential to attenuate increases in platelet activation and aggregation when undertaking strenuous exercise.

Effect of interval training intensity on fat oxidation, blood lactate and the rate of perceived exertion in obese men

Purpose The objectives of this study were to examine the effect of 4-week moderate- and high-intensity interval training (MIIT and HIIT) on fat oxidation and the responses of blood lactate (BLa) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Methods Ten overweight/obese men (age = 29 ±3.7 years, BMI = 30.7 ±3.4 kg/m2) participated in a cross-over study of 4-week MIIT and HIIT training. The MIIT training sessions consisted of 5-min cycling stages at mechanical workloads 20% above and 20% below 45%VO2peak. The HIIT sessions consisted of intervals of 30-s work at 90%VO2peak and 30-s rest. Pre- and post-training assessments included VO2max using a graded exercise test (GXT) and fat oxidation using a 45-min constant-load test at 45%VO2max. BLa and RPE were also measured during the constant-load exercise test. Results There were no significant changes in body composition with either intervention. There were significant increases in fat oxidation after MIIT and HIIT (p ≤ 0.01), with no effect of intensity. BLa during the constant-load exercise test significantly decreased after MIIT and HIIT (p ≤ 0.01), and the difference between MIIT and HIIT was not significant (p = 0.09). RPE significantly decreased after HIIT greater than MIIT (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion Interval training can increase fat oxidation with no effect of exercise intensity, but BLa and RPE decreased after HIIT to greater extent than MIIT.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

Metabolic and hormonal responses to isoenergetic high-intensity interval exercise and continuous moderate-intensity exercise

This study investigated the effects of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) vs. work-matched moderate-intensity continuous exercise (MOD) on metabolism and counterregulatory stress hormones. In a randomized and counterbalanced order, 10 well-trained male cyclists and triathletes completed a HIIT session [81.6 ± 3.7% maximum oxygen consumption (V̇o2 max); 72.0 ± 3.2% peak power output; 792 ± 95 kJ] and a MOD session (66.7 ± 3.5% V̇o2 max; 48.5 ± 3.1% peak power output; 797 ± 95 kJ). Blood samples were collected before, immediately after, and 1 and 2 h postexercise. Carbohydrate oxidation was higher (P = 0.037; 20%), whereas fat oxidation was lower (P = 0.037; −47%) during HIIT vs. MOD. Immediately after exercise, plasma glucose (P = 0.024; 20%) and lactate (P < 0.01; 5.4×) were higher in HIIT vs. MOD, whereas total serum free fatty acid concentration was not significantly different (P = 0.33). Targeted gas chromatography-mass spectromtery metabolomics analysis identified and quantified 49 metabolites in plasma, among which 11 changed after both HIIT and MOD, 13 changed only after HIIT, and 5 changed only after MOD. Notable changes included substantial increases in tricarboxylic acid intermediates and monounsaturated fatty acids after HIIT and marked decreases in amino acids during recovery from both trials. Plasma adrenocorticotrophic hormone (P = 0.019), cortisol (P < 0.01), and growth hormone (P < 0.01) were all higher immediately after HIIT. Plasma norepinephrine (P = 0.11) and interleukin-6 (P = 0.20) immediately after exercise were not significantly different between trials. Plasma insulin decreased during recovery from both HIIT and MOD (P < 0.01). These data indicate distinct differences in specific metabolites and counterregulatory hormones following HIIT vs. MOD and highlight the value of targeted metabolomic analysis to provide more detailed insights into the metabolic demands of exercise.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Socio-environmental drivers and suicide in Australia: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.