Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

The future of office property

The following paper considers the question, where to office property? In doing so, it focuses, in the first instance, on identifying and describing a selection of key forces for change present within the contemporary operating environment in which office property functions. Given the increasingly complex, dynamic and multi-faceted character of this environment, the paper seeks to identify only the primary forces for change, within the context of the future of office property. These core drivers of change have, for the purposes of this discussion, been characterised as including a range of economic, demographic and socio-cultural factors, together with developments in information and communication technology. Having established this foundation, the paper proceeds to consider the manner in which these forces may, in the future, be manifested within the office property market. Comment is offered regarding the potential future implications of these forces for change together with their likely influence on the nature and management of the physical asset itself. Whilst no explicit time horizon has been envisioned in the preparation of this paper particular attention has been accorded short to medium term trends, that is, those likely to emerge in the office property marketplace over the coming two decades. Further, the paper considers the question posed, in respect of the future of office property, in the context of developed western nations. The degree of commonality seen in these mature markets is such that generalisations may more appropriately and robustly be applied. Whilst some of the comments offered with respect to the target market may find application in other arenas, it is beyond the scope of this paper to explicitly consider highly heterogeneous markets. Given also the wide scope of this paper key drivers for change and their likely implications for the commercial office property market are identified at a global level (within the above established parameters). Accordingly, the focus is necessarily such that it serves to reflect overarching directions at a universal level (with the effect being that direct applicability to individual markets - when viewed in isolation on a geographic or property type specific basis – may not be fitting in all instances)

Data mining for lifetime prediction of metallic components

The ability to accurately predict the lifetime of building components is crucial to optimizing building design, material selection and scheduling of required maintenance. This paper discusses a number of possible data mining methods that can be applied to do the lifetime prediction of metallic components and how different sources of service life information could be integrated to form the basis of the lifetime prediction model

Application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in multi-criteria analysis of the selection of intelligent building systems

The availability of innumerable intelligent building (IB) products, and the current dearth of inclusive building component selection methods suggest that decision makers might be confronted with the quandary of forming a particular combination of components to suit the needs of a specific IB project. Despite this problem, few empirical studies have so far been undertaken to analyse the selection of the IB systems, and to identify key selection criteria for major IB systems. This study is designed to fill these research gaps. Two surveys: a general survey and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) survey are proposed to achieve these objectives. The first general survey aims to collect general views from IB experts and practitioners to identify the perceived critical selection criteria, while the AHP survey was conducted to prioritize and assign the important weightings for the perceived criteria in the general survey. Results generally suggest that each IB system was determined by a disparate set of selection criteria with different weightings. ‘Work efficiency’ is perceived to be most important core selection criterion for various IB systems, while ‘user comfort’, ‘safety’ and ‘cost effectiveness’ are also considered to be significant. Two sub-criteria, ‘reliability’ and ‘operating and maintenance costs’, are regarded as prime factors to be considered in selecting IB systems. The current study contributes to the industry and IB research in at least two aspects. First, it widens the understanding of the selection criteria, as well as their degree of importance, of the IB systems. It also adopts a multi-criteria AHP approach which is a new method to analyse and select the building systems in IB. Further research would investigate the inter-relationship amongst the selection criteria.

Cultural selection and its influence on perceptions of reputation within organisations

The capacity to identify, interpret, and prioritise environmental issues is critical in the management of corporate reputation. In spite of the significance of these abilities for corporate reputation management, there has been little effort to document and describe internal organizational influences on these capacities. Contrary to this state of affairs in the discipline of public relations, a long history of ethnographic research in cultural anthropology documents how sets of shared environmental perceptions can influence and moderate environmental factors in cultural populations (see for example, Durham, 1991 ). This study explores how cultural “frames of reference” derived from shared values and assumptions among organizational members influence organizational perceptions, and consequently, organizational actions. Specifically, this study explores how a central attribute of organizational culture--the property of cultural selection-- influences perceptions of organizational reputation held by organizational members. Perceptions of reputation among organizational members are obvious drivers to both the nature of and rationale for organizational communication strategies and responses. These perceptions are the result of collective processes that synthesise (with varying degrees of consensus) member conceptualisations, interpretations, and representations of the environmental realities in which their organization operate. To explore how cultural selection influences member perceptions of organizational reputation, this study employs ethnographic research including 20 depth interviews and six months of organizational observation in the focal organization. We argue that while external indicators of organizational reputation are acknowledged by members as significant, the internal action of cultural selection is a far stronger influence on organizational action.