Prevalence and prognostic significance of secondary lymphedema following breast cancer

Background The adverse consequences of lymphedema following breast cancer in relation to physical function and quality of life are clear; however, its potential relationship with survival has not been investigated. Our purpose was to determine the prevalence of lymphedema and associated upper-body symptoms at 6 years following breast cancer and to examine the prognostic significance of lymphedema with respect to overall 6-year survival (OS). Methods and Results A population-based sample of Australian women (n=287) diagnosed with invasive, unilateral breast cancer was followed for a median of 6.6 years and prospectively assessed for lymphedema (using bioimpedance spectroscopy [BIS], sum of arm circumferences [SOAC], and self-reported arm swelling), a range of upper-body symptoms, and vital status. OS was measured from date of diagnosis to date of death or last follow-up. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to calculate OS and Cox proportional hazards models quantified the risk associated with lymphedema. Approximately 45% of women had reported at least one moderate to extreme symptom at 6.6 years postdiagnosis, while 34% had shown clinical evidence of lymphedema, and 48% reported arm swelling at least once since baseline assessment. A total of 27 (9.4%) women died during the follow-up period, and lymphedema, diagnosed by BIS or SOAC between 6–18 months postdiagnosis, predicted mortality (BIS: HR=2.5; 95% CI: 0.9, 6.8, p=0.08; SOAC: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.1, 8.7, p=0.04). There was no association (HR=1.2; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.6, p=0.68) between self-reported arm swelling and OS. Conclusions These findings suggest that lymphedema may influence survival following breast cancer treatment and warrant further investigation in other cancer cohorts and explication of a potential underlying biology.

Application of an appearance-based intervention to improve sun protection outcomes of outdoor workers in Queensland, Australia

Outdoor workers are exposed to high levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and may thus be at greater risk to experience UVR-related health effects such as skin cancer, sun burn, and cataracts. A number of intervention trials (n=14) have aimed to improve outdoor workers’ work-related sun protection cognitions and behaviours. Only one study however has reported the use of UV-photography as part of a multi-component intervention. This study was performed in the USA and showed long-term (12 months) improvements in work-related sun protection behaviours. Intervention effects of the other studies have varied greatly, depending on the population studied, intervention applied, and measurement of effect. Previous studies have not assessed whether: - Interventions are similarly effective for workers in stringent and less stringent policy organisations; - Policy effect is translated into workers’ leisure time protection; - Implemented interventions are effective in the long-term; - The facial UV-photograph technique is effective in Australian male outdoor workers without a large additional intervention package, and; - Such interventions will also affect workers’ leisure time sun-related cognitions and behaviours. Therefore, the present Protection of Outdoor Workers from Environmental Radiation [POWER]-study aimed to fill these gaps and had the objectives of: a) assessing outdoor workers’ sun-related cognitions and behaviours at work and during leisure time in stringent and less stringent sun protection policy environments; b) assessing the effect of an appearance-based intervention on workers’ risk perceptions, intentions and behaviours over time; c) assessing whether the intervention was equally effective within the two policy settings; and d) assessing the immediate post-intervention effect. Effectiveness was described in terms of changes in sun-related risk perceptions and intentions (as these factors were shown to be main precursors of behaviour change in many health promotion theories) and behaviour. The study purposefully selected and recruited two organisations with a large outdoor worker contingent in Queensland, Australia within a 40 kilometre radius of Brisbane. The two organisations differed in the stringency of implementation and reinforcement of their organisational sun protection policy. Data were collected from 154 male predominantly Australian born outdoor workers with an average age of 37 years and predominantly medium to fair skin (83%). Sun-related cognitions and behaviours of workers were assessed using self-report questionnaires at baseline and six to twelve months later. Variation in follow-up time was due to a time difference in the recruitment of the two organisations. Participants within each organisation were assigned to an intervention or control group. The intervention group participants received a one-off personalised Skin Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [SCRAT]-letter and a facial UV-photograph with detailed verbal information. This was followed by an immediate post-intervention questionnaire within three months of the start of the study. The control group only received the baseline and follow-up questionnaire. Data were analysed using a variety of techniques including: descriptive analyses, parametric and non-parametric tests, and generalised estimating equations. A 15% proportional difference observed was deemed of clinical significance, with the addition of reported statistical significance (p<0.05) where applicable. Objective 1: Assess and compare the current sun-related risk perceptions, intentions, behaviours, and policy awareness of outdoor workers in stringent and less stringent sun protection policy settings. Workers within the two organisations (stringent n=89 and less stringent n=65) were similar in their knowledge about skin cancer, self efficacy, attitudes, and social norms regarding sun protection at work and during leisure time. Participants were predominantly in favour of sun protection. Results highlighted that compared to workers in a less stringent policy organisation working for an organisation with stringent sun protection policies and practices resulted in more desirable sun protection intentions (less willing to tan p=0.03) ; actual behaviours at work (sufficient use of upper and lower body protection, headgear, and sunglasses (p<0.001 for all comparisons), and greater policy awareness (awareness of repercussions if Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) was not used, p<0.001)). However the effect of the work-related sun protection policy was found not to extend to leisure time sun protection. Objective 2: Compare changes in sun-related risk perceptions, intentions, and behaviours between the intervention and control group. The effect of the intervention was minimal and mainly resulted in a clinically significant reduction in work-related self-perceived risk of developing skin cancer in the intervention compared to the control group (16% and 32% for intervention and control group, respectively estimated their risk higher compared to other outdoor workers: , p=0.11). No other clinical significant effects were observed at 12 months follow-up. Objective 3: Assess whether the intervention was equally effective in the stringent sun protection policy organisation and the less stringent sun protection policy organisation. The appearance-based intervention resulted in a clinically significant improvement in the stringent policy intervention group participants’ intention to protect from the sun at work (workplace*time interaction, p=0.01). In addition to a reduction in their willingness to tan both at work (will tan at baseline: 17% and 61%, p=0.06, at follow-up: 54% and 33%, p=0.07, stringent and less stringent policy intervention group respectively. The workplace*time interaction was significant p<0.001) and during leisure time (will tan at baseline: 42% and 78%, p=0.01, at follow-up: 50% and 63%, p=0.43, stringent and less stringent policy intervention group respectively. The workplace*time interaction was significant p=0.01) over the course of the study compared to the less stringent policy intervention group. However, no changes in actual sun protection behaviours were found. Objective 4: Examine the effect of the intervention on level of alarm and concern regarding the health of the skin as well as sun protection behaviours in both organisations. The immediate post-intervention results showed that the stringent policy organisation participants indicated to be less alarmed (p=0.04) and concerned (p<0.01) about the health of their skin and less likely to show the facial UV-photograph to others (family p=0.03) compared to the less stringent policy participants. A clinically significantly larger proportion of participants from the stringent policy organisation reported they worried more about skin cancer (65%) and skin freckling (43%) compared to those in the less stringent policy organisation (46%,and 23% respectively , after seeing the UV-photograph). In summary the results of this study suggest that the having a stringent work-related sun protection policy was significantly related to for work-time sun protection practices, but did not extend to leisure time sun protection. This could reflect the insufficient level of sun protection found in the general Australian population during leisure time. Alternatively, reactance caused by being restricted in personal decisions through work-time policy could have contributed to lower leisure time sun protection. Finally, other factors could have also contributed to the less than optimal leisure time sun protection behaviours reported, such as unmeasured personal or cultural barriers. All these factors combined may have lead to reduced willingness to take proper preventive action during leisure time exposure. The intervention did not result in any measurable difference between the intervention and control groups in sun protection behaviours in this population, potentially due to the long lag time between the implementation of the intervention and assessment at 12-months follow-up. In addition, high levels of sun protection behaviours were found at baseline (ceiling effect) which left little room for improvement. Further, this study did not assess sunscreen use, which was the predominant behaviour assessed in previous effective appearance-based interventions trials. Additionally, previous trials were mainly conducted in female populations, whilst the POWER-study’s population was all male. The observed immediate post-intervention result could be due to more emphasis being placed on sun protection and risks related to sun exposure in the stringent policy organisation. Therefore participants from the stringent policy organisation could have been more aware of harmful effects of UVR and hence, by knowing that they usually protect adequately, not be as alarmed or concerned as the participants from the less stringent policy organisation. In conclusion, a facial UV-photograph and SCRAT-letter information alone may not achieve large changes in sun-related cognitions and behaviour, especially of assessed 6-12 months after the intervention was implemented and in workers who are already quite well protected. Differences found between workers in the present study appear to be more attributable to organisational policy. However, against a background of organisational policy, this intervention may be a useful addition to sun-related workplace health and safety programs. The study findings have been interpreted while respecting a number of limitations. These have included non-random allocation of participants due to pre-organised allocation of participants to study group in one organisation and difficulty in separating participants from either study group. Due to the transient nature of the outdoor worker population, only 105 of 154 workers available at baseline could be reached for follow-up. (attrition rate=32%). In addition the discrepancy in the time to follow-up assessment between the two organisations was a limitation of the current study. Given the caveats of this research, the following recommendations were made for future research: - Consensus should be reached to define "outdoor worker" in terms of time spent outside at work as well as in the way sun protection behaviours are measured and reported. - Future studies should implement and assess the value of the facial UV-photographs in a wide range of outdoor worker organisations and countries. - More timely and frequent follow-up assessments should be implemented in intervention studies to determine the intervention effect and to identify the best timing of booster sessions to optimise results. - Future research should continue to aim to target outdoor workers’ leisure time cognitions and behaviours and improve these if possible. Overall, policy appears to be an important factor in workers’ compliance with work-time use of sun protection. Given the evidence generated by this research, organisations employing outdoor workers should consider stringent implementation and reinforcement of a sun protection policy. Finally, more research is needed to improve ways to generate desirable behaviour in this population during leisure time.

The causes of sinuous crustal-scale deformation patterns in hot orogens: Evidence from scaled analogue experiments and the southern Central Andes

The cause of upper-crustal segmentation into rhomb-shaped, shear zone-bound domains associated with contractional sedimentary basins in hot, wide orogens is not well understood. Here we use scaled multilayered analogue experiments to investigate the role of an orogen-parallel crustal-strength gradient on the formation of such structures. We show that the aspect ratio and size of domains, the sinuous character and abundance of transpressional shear zones vary with the integrated mechanical strength of crust. Upper-crustal deformation patterns and the degree of strain localization in the experiments are controlled by the ratio between the brittle and ductile strength in the model crust as well as gradients in tectonic and buoyancy forces. The experimental results match the first-order kinematic and structural characteristics of the southern Central Andes and provide insight on the dynamics of underlying deformation patterns in hot, wide orogens.

Estimation of reference values for dioxin, furan, and PCB congener concentrations for the Australian population

Population-representative data for dioxin and PCB congener concentrations are available for the Australian population based on measurements in age- and gender-specific serum pools.1 Such data provide a basis for characterizing the mean concentrations of these compounds in the population, but do not provide information on the inter-individual variation in serum concentrations that may exist in the population within an age- and gender-specific group. Such variation may occur due to inter-individual differences in long-term exposure levels or elimination rates. Reference values are estimates of upper percentiles (often the 95th percentile) of measured values in a defined population that can be used to evaluate data from individuals in the population in order to identify concentrations that are elevated, for example, from occupational exposures.2 The objective of this analysis is to estimate reference values corresponding to the 95th percentile (RV95s) for Australia on an age-specific basis for individual dioxin-like congeners based on measurements in serum pools from Toms and Mueller (2010).

Late Oligocene to middle Miocene rifting and syn-extensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre occidental, Mexico: the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range style extension affected several areas of western Mexico since the Late Eocene, extension in the Gulf of California region (the Gulf Extensional Province GEP) is thought to have started as subduction waned and ended at ~14 12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering the mid Miocene Comondú group as a suprasubduction volcanic arc. Our new integration of the geology of the south east Gulf region, backed by 43 new Ar Ar and U Pb mineral ages and geochemical studies, document a widespread phase of extension in the southern GEP between latest Oligocene and Early Miocene that subsequently focused in the region of the future Gulf in the Middle Miocene. Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene rocks across the southern Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO)(northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa) were affected by major ~N S to NNW striking normal faults prior to ~21 Ma. Then, between ~21 and 11 Ma, a system of NNW-SSE high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the SMO. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20-17 Ma. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were floored by huge dome complexes at ~21-17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated at 15-14 Ma, a setting and timing very similar to Sonora. Early to Middle Miocene volcanism, including the largely volcaniclastic Comondú strata in Baja California Sur, was thus emplaced in rift basins and was likely associated to decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than to fluxing by fluids from the young subducting plate. Along the Nayarit and Sinaloa coast, flatlying basaltic lava flows dated at 11-10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here, crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the SMO, implying significant lithosphere stretching before ~11 Ma. Our study shows that rifting began much earlier than Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed at ~20-18 Ma to be narrower and likely more rapid, and again at ~12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

Effects of bovine colostrum supplementation on immune variables of highly-trained cyclists

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of low-dose bovine colostrum protein concentrate (CPC) supplementation on selected immune variables in cyclists. Twenty-nine highly trained male road cyclists completed an initial 40-km time trial (TT(40)) and were then randomly assigned to either a supplement (n = 14, 10 g bovine CPC/day) or placebo group (n = 15, 10 g whey protein concentrate/day). After 5 wk of supplementation, the cyclists completed a second TT(40). They then completed 5 consecutive days of high-intensity training (HIT) that included a TT(40), followed by a final TT(40) in the following week. Venous blood and saliva samples were collected immediately before and after each TT(40), and upper respiratory illness symptoms were recorded over the experimental period. Compared with the placebo group, bovine CPC supplementation significantly increased preexercise serum soluble TNF receptor 1 during the HIT period (bovine CPC = 882 +/- 233 pg/ml, placebo = 468 +/- 139 pg/ml; P = 0.039). Supplementation also suppressed the postexercise decrease in cytotoxic/suppressor T cells during the HIT period (bovine CPC = -1.0 +/- 2.7%, placebo = -9.2 +/- 2.8%; P = 0.017) and during the following week (bovine CPC = 1.4 +/- 2.9%, placebo = -8.2 +/- 2.8%; P = 0.004). Bovine CPC supplementation prevented a postexercise decrease in serum IgG(2) concentration at the end of the HIT period (bovine CPC = 4.8 +/- 6.8%, P = 0.88; placebo = -9.7 +/- 6.9%, P = 0.013). There was a trend toward reduced incidence of upper respiratory illness symptoms in the bovine CPC group (P = 0.055). In summary, low-dose bovine CPC supplementation modulates immune parameters during normal training and after an acute period of intense exercise, which may have contributed to the trend toward reduced upper respiratory illness in the bovine CPC group.

A UKF-based estimation strategy for actuator fault detection of UASs

This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating correspond- ing velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.

Late Oligocene to Middle Miocene rifting and synextensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico : the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range–style extension affected large areas of western Mexico after the Late Eocene, most consider that extension in the Gulf of California region began as subduction waned and ended ca. 14–12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering Early and Middle Miocene volcanism of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Comondú Group as subduction related, whereas volcanism after ca. 12.5 Ma is extension related. Here we present a new regional geologic study of the eastern Gulf of California margin in the states of Nayarit and Sinaloa, Mexico, backed by 43 new Ar-Ar and U-Pb mineral ages, and geochemical data that document an earlier widespread phase of extension. This extension across the southern and central Gulf Extensional Province began between Late Oligocene and Early Miocene time, but was focused in the region of the future Gulf of California in the Middle Miocene. Late Oligocene to Early Miocene rocks across northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa were affected by major approximately north-south– to north-northwest– striking normal faults prior to ca. 21 Ma. Between ca. 21 and 11 Ma, a system of north-northwest–south-southeast high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20–17 Ma. Rhyolitic rocks, in particular the domes and lavas, often show strong antecrystic inheritance but only a few Mesozoic or older xenocrysts, suggesting silicic magma generation in the mid-upper crust triggered by an extension induced basaltic infl ux. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were occupied by huge volcanic dome complexes ca. 21–17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated as 15–14 Ma, a stratigraphy and timing very similar to those found in central Sonora (northeastern Gulf of California margin). Early to Middle Miocene volcanism occurred thus in rift basins, and was likely associated with decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than with fluxing by fluids from the young and slow subducting microplates. Along the eastern side of the Gulf of California coast, from Farallón de San Ignacio island offshore Los Mochis, Sinaloa, to San Blas, Nayarit, a strike distance of >700 km, flat lying basaltic lavas dated as ca. 11.5–10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the adjacent Sierra Madre Occidental, implying signifi cant lithosphere stretching before ca. 11 Ma. This mafic pulse, with subdued Nb-Ta negative spikes, may be related to the detachment of the lower part of the subducted slab, allowing an upward asthenospheric flow into an upper mantle previously modified by fluid fluxes related to past subduction. Widespread eruption of very uniform oceanic island basalt–like lavas occurred by the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, only 20 m.y. after the onset of rifting and ~9 m.y. after the end of subduction, implying that preexisting subduction-modified mantle had now become isolated from melt source regions. Our study shows that rifting across the southern-central Gulf Extensional Province began much earlier than the Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed ca. 20–18 Ma to be narrower, and again after ca. 12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

A question of agency : applying Sen’s theory of human capability to the concept of secondary school student career ‘choice’

In this paper, we seek to operationalize Amartya Sen's concept of human capability to guide a scholarly investigation of student career choice capability. We begin by outlining factors affecting youth labour markets in Australia; a prosperous country that is affected by a ‘two-speed’ national economy. We then examine recent government initiatives that have been designed to combat youth unemployment and cyclical disadvantage by enhancing the aspirations and career knowledge of secondary school students. We argue that these policy measures are based on four assumptions: first, that career choice capability is a problem of individual agency; second, that the dissemination of career information can empower students to act as ‘consumers’ in an unequal job market; third, that agency is simply a question of will; and finally, that school education and career advice – as a means to freedom in the space of career development – is of equal quality, distribution and value to an increasingly diverse range of upper secondary school students. The paper concludes by outlining a conceptual framework capable of informing an empirical research project that aims to test these assumptions by measuring and comparing differences between groups in the range of freedom to achieve and, therefore, to choose.

Reliability and validity of physical fitness field tests for adults aged 55 to 70 years

The aim of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of field tests for assessing physical function in mid-aged and young-old people (55-70 y). Tests were selected that required minimal space and equipment and could be implemented in multiple field settings such as a general practitioner's office. Nineteen participants completed 2 field and I laboratory testing sessions. Intra-class correlations showed good reliability for the tests of upper body strength (lift and reach, R=.66), lower body strength (sit to stand, R=.80) and functional capacity (Canadian Step Test, R=.92), but not for leg power (single timed chair rise, R=.28). There was also good reliability for the balance test during 3 stances: parallel (94.7% agreement), semi-tandem (73.7%), and tandem (52.6%). Comparison of field test results with objective laboratory measures found good validity for the sit to stand (cf 1RM leg press, Pearson r=.68, p <.05), and for the step test (cf PWC140, r = -.60, p <.001), but not for the lift and reach (cf 1RM bench press, r=.43, p >.05), balance (r=-.13, -.18, .23) and rate of force development tests (r=-.28). It was concluded that the lower body strength and cardiovascular function tests were appropriate for use in field settings with mid-aged and young-old adults.

Axial capacity of barrette piles embedded in gravel layer

In this paper, the axial performance of two heavily instrumented barrette piles, with and without grouting, socket into gravel layer in Taipei are evaluated based on the results of pile load tests. Both piles are 44 m long with the same dimension of 0.8 by 2.7 m, installed by hydraulic long bucket. One of the piles with toe grouting was socket 6 m into gravel layer and the other pile without toe grouting was socket 3 m into gravel layer. The load versus displacement relationships at pile head, the t-z curves of upper soil layers and of bottom gravel layer, and the tip resistance versus displacement relationships are important concerns and are presented in the paper. The t-z curves interpreted from the measured data along depth are also simulated by the hyperbolic model.

The origin of cyclical high- and low-Cr basalts with continental crust trace element signatures in the Kalkarindji Large Igneous Province

The 510 million year old Kalkarindji Large Igneous Province correlates in time with the first major extinction event after the Cambrian explosion of life. Large igneous provinces correlate with all major mass extinction events in the last 500 million years. The genetic link between large igneous provinces and mass extinction remains unclear. My work is a contribution towards understanding magmatic processes involved in the generation of Large Igneous Provinces. I concentrate on the origin of variation in Cr in magmas and have developed a model in which high temperature melts intrude into and assimilate large amounts of upper continental crust.

The development and piloting of the ISPCAN child abuse screening tool-parent version (ICAST-P)

Objective Child maltreatment is a problem that has longer recognition in the northern hemisphere and in high-income countries. Recent work has highlighted the nearly universal nature of the problem in other countries but demonstrated the lack of comparability of studies because of the variations in definitions and measures used. The International Society for the Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect has developed instrumentation that may be used with cross-cultural and cross-national benchmarking by local investigators. Design and sampling The instrument design began with a team of expert in Brisbane in 2004. A large bank of questions were subjected to two rounds of Delphi review to develop the fielded version of the instrument. Convenience samples included approximately 120 parent respondents with children under the age of 18 in each of six countries (697 total). Results This paper presents an instrument that measures parental behaviors directed at children and reports data from pilot work in 6 countries and 7 languages. Patterns of response revealed few missing values and distributions of responses that generally were similar in the six countries. Subscales performed well in terms of internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha in very good range (0.77–0.88) with the exception of the neglect and sex abuse subscales. Results varied by child age and gender in expected directions but with large variations among the samples. About 15% of children were shaken, 24% hit on the buttocks with an object, and 37% were spanked. Reports of choking and smothering were made by 2% of parents. Conclusion These pilot data demonstrate that the instrument is well tolerated and captures variations in, and potentially harmful forms of child discipline. Practice implications The ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool – Parent Version (ICAST-P) has been developed as a survey instrument to be administered to parents for the assessment of child maltreatment in a multi-national and multi-cultural context. It was developed with broad input from international experts and subjected to Dephi review, translation, and pilot testing in six countries. The results of the Delphi study and pilot testing are presented. This study demonstrates that a single instrument can be used in a broad range of cultures and languages with low rates of missing data and moderate to high internal consistency.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Parents as co-researchers at home: Using an observational method to document young children’s use of technology

This paper discusses the use of observational video recordings to document young children’s use of technology in their homes. Although observational research practices have been used for decades, often with video-based techniques, the participant group in this study (i.e., very young children) and the setting (i.e., private homes), provide a rich space for exploring the benefits and limitations of qualitative observation. The data gathered in this study point to a number of key decisions and issues that researchers must face in designing observational research, particularly where non-researchers (in this case, parents) act as surrogates for the researcher at the data collection stage. The involvement of parents and children as research videographers in the home resulted in very rich and detailed data about children’s use of technology in their daily lives. However, limitations noted in the dataset (e.g., image quality) provide important guidance for researchers developing projects using similar methods in future. The paper provides recommendations for future observational designs in similar settings and/or with similar participant groups.