The once-and-for-all withdrawal of the Liverpool Care Pathway in the UK : what are the implications for Australia?

This Perspective reflects on the withdrawal of the Liverpool Care Pathway in the UK, and its implications for Australia. Integrated care pathways are documents which outline the essential steps of multidisciplinary care in addressing a specific clinical problem. They can be used to introduce best clinical practice, to ensure that the most appropriate management occurs at the most appropriate time and that it is provided by the most appropriate health professional. By providing clear instructions, decision support and a framework for clinician-patient interactions, care pathways guide the systematic provision of best evidence-based care. The Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP) is an example of an integrated care pathway, designed in the 1990s to guide care for people with cancer who are in their last days of life and are expected to die in hospital. This pathway evolved out of a recognised local need to better support non-specialist palliative care providers’ care for patients dying of cancer within their inpatient units. Historically, despite the large number of people in acute care settings whose treatment intent is palliative, dying patients receiving general hospital acute care tended to lack sufficient attention from senior medical staff and nursing staff. The quality of end-of-life care was considered inadequate, therefore much could be learned from the way patients were cared for by palliative care services. The LCP was a strategy developed to improve end-of-life care in cancer patients and was based on the care received by those dying in the palliative care setting.

Physical activity and physical fitness in African-American girls with and without obesity

Lack of physical activity and low levels of physical fitness are thought to be contributing factors to the high prevalence of obesity in African-American girls, To examine this hypothesis, we compared habitual physical activity and physical fitness in 54 African-American girls with obesity and 96 African-American girls without obesity residing in rural South Carolina, Participation in vigorous (greater than or equal to 6 METs) (VPA) or moderate and vigorous physical activity (greater than or equal to 4 METs) (MVPA) was assessed on three consecutive days using the Previous Day Physical Activity Recall, Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using the PWC 170 cycle ergometer test, Upper body strength was determined at two sites via isometric cable tensiometer tests, Relative to their counterparts without obesity, girls with obesity reported significantly fewer 30-minute blocks of VPA (0.90 +/- 0.14 vs. 1.3 +/- 0.14) and MVPA (1.2 +/- 0.18 vs. 1.7 +/- 0.16) (p<0.01), Within the entire sample, VPA and MVPA were inversely associated with body mass index (r=-0.17 and r=-0.19) and triceps skinfold thickness (r=-0.19 and r=-0.22) (p<0.05), In the PWC 170 test and isometric strength tests, girls with obesity demonstrated absolute scores that were similar to, or greater than, those of girls without obesity; however, when scores were expressed relative to bodyweight, girls with obesity demonstrated significantly lower values (p<0.05). The results support the hypothesis that lack of physical activity and low physical fitness are important contributing factors in the development and/or maintenance of obesity in African-American girls.

Calcium influx inhibits MT1-MMP processing and blocks MMP-2 activation

We have previously reported that concanavalin A (ConA)-induced MMP-2 activation involves both transcriptional and non-transcriptional mechanisms. Here we examined the effects of calcium influx on MT1-MMP expression and MMP-2 activation in MDA-MB-231 cells. The calcium ionophore ionomycin caused a dose-dependent inhibition of ConA-induced MMP-2 activation, but had no effect on MT1-MMP mRNA levels. However, Western analysis revealed an accumulation of pro-MT1-MMP (63 kDa), indicating that ionomycin blocked the conversion of pro-MT1-MMP protein to the active 60 kDa form. This suggests that increased calcium levels inhibit the processing of MT1-MMP. This finding may help to elucidate the mechanism(s) which regulates MT1-MMP activation.

Benthic metabolism as an indicator of stream ecosystem health

We tested direct and indirect measures of benthic metabolism as indicators of stream ecosystem health across a known agricultural land-use disturbance gradient in southeast Queensland, Australia. Gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (R24) in benthic chambers in cobble and sediment habitats, algal biomass (as chlorophyll a) from cobbles and sediment cores, algal biomass accrual on artificial substrates and stable carbon isotope ratios of aquatic plants and benthic sediments were measured at 53 stream sites, ranging from undisturbed subtropical rainforest to catchments where improved pasture and intensive cropping are major land-uses. Rates of benthic GPP and R24 varied by more than two orders of magnitude across the study gradient. Generalised linear regression modelling explained 80% or more of the variation in these two indicators when sediment and cobble substrate dominated sites were considered separately, and both catchment and reach scale descriptors of the disturbance gradient were important in explaining this variation. Model fits were poor for net daily benthic metabolism (NDM) and production to respiration ratio (P/R). Algal biomass accrual on artificial substrate and stable carbon isotope ratios of aquatic plants and benthic sediment were the best of the indirect indicators, with regression model R2 values of 50% or greater. Model fits were poor for algal biomass on natural substrates for cobble sites and all sites. None of these indirect measures of benthic metabolism was a good surrogate for measured GPP. Direct measures of benthic metabolism, GPP and R24, and several indirect measures were good indicators of stream ecosystem health and are recommended in assessing process-related responses to riparian and catchment land use change and the success of ecosystem rehabilitation actions.

Accurately defining the reference condition for summary biotic metrics: A comparison of four approaches

Protocols for bioassessment often relate changes in summary metrics that describe aspects of biotic assemblage structure and function to environmental stress. Biotic assessment using multimetric indices now forms the basis for setting regulatory standards for stream quality and a range of other goals related to water resource management in the USA and elsewhere. Biotic metrics are typically interpreted with reference to the expected natural state to evaluate whether a site is degraded. It is critical that natural variation in biotic metrics along environmental gradients is adequately accounted for, in order to quantify human disturbance-induced change. A common approach used in the IBI is to examine scatter plots of variation in a given metric along a single stream size surrogate and a fit a line (drawn by eye) to form the upper bound, and hence define the maximum likely value of a given metric in a site of a given environmental characteristic (termed the 'maximum species richness line' - MSRL). In this paper we examine whether the use of a single environmental descriptor and the MSRL is appropriate for defining the reference condition for a biotic metric (fish species richness) and for detecting human disturbance gradients in rivers of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. We compare the accuracy and precision of the MSRL approach based on single environmental predictors, with three regression-based prediction methods (Simple Linear Regression, Generalised Linear Modelling and Regression Tree modelling) that use (either singly or in combination) a set of landscape and local scale environmental variables as predictors of species richness. We compared the frequency of classification errors from each method against set biocriteria and contrast the ability of each method to accurately reflect human disturbance gradients at a large set of test sites. The results of this study suggest that the MSRL based upon variation in a single environmental descriptor could not accurately predict species richness at minimally disturbed sites when compared with SLR's based on equivalent environmental variables. Regression-based modelling incorporating multiple environmental variables as predictors more accurately explained natural variation in species richness than did simple models using single environmental predictors. Prediction error arising from the MSRL was substantially higher than for the regression methods and led to an increased frequency of Type I errors (incorrectly classing a site as disturbed). We suggest that problems with the MSRL arise from the inherent scoring procedure used and that it is limited to predicting variation in the dependent variable along a single environmental gradient.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

Taxonomic resolution and quantification of freshwater macroinvertebrate samples from an Australian dryland river : The benefits and costs of using species abundance data

In studies using macroinvertebrates as indicators for monitoring rivers and streams, species level identifications in comparison with lower resolution identifications can have greater information content and result in more reliable site classifications and better capacity to discriminate between sites, yet many such programmes identify specimens to the resolution of family rather than species. This is often because it is cheaper to obtain family level data than species level data. Choice of appropriate taxonomic resolution is a compromise between the cost of obtaining data at high taxonomic resolutions and the loss of information at lower resolutions. Optimum taxonomic resolution should be determined by the information required to address programme objectives. Costs saved in identifying macroinvertebrates to family level may not be justified if family level data can not give the answers required and expending the extra cost to obtain species level data may not be warranted if cheaper family level data retains sufficient information to meet objectives. We investigated the influence of taxonomic resolution and sample quantification (abundance vs. presence/absence) on the representation of aquatic macroinvertebrate species assemblage patterns and species richness estimates. The study was conducted in a physically harsh dryland river system (Condamine-Balonne River system, located in south-western Queensland, Australia), characterised by low macroinvertebrate diversity. Our 29 study sites covered a wide geographic range and a diversity of lotic conditions and this was reflected by differences between sites in macroinvertebrate assemblage composition and richness. The usefulness of expending the extra cost necessary to identify macroinvertebrates to species was quantified via the benefits this higher resolution data offered in its capacity to discriminate between sites and give accurate estimates of site species richness. We found that very little information (<6%) was lost by identifying taxa to family (or genus), as opposed to species, and that quantifying the abundance of taxa provided greater resolution for pattern interpretation than simply noting their presence/absence. Species richness was very well represented by genus, family and order richness, so that each of these could be used as surrogates of species richness if, for example, surveying to identify diversity hot-spots. It is suggested that sharing of common ecological responses among species within higher taxonomic units is the most plausible mechanism for the results. Based on a cost/benefit analysis, family level abundance data is recommended as the best resolution for resolving patterns in macroinvertebrate assemblages in this system. The relevance of these findings are discussed in the context of other low diversity, harsh, dryland river systems.

Measures of nutrient processes as indicators of stream ecosystem health

To better understand how freshwater ecosystems respond to changes in catchment land-use, it is important to develop measures of ecological health that include aspects of both ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated measures of nutrient processes as potential indicators of stream ecosystem health across a land-use gradient from relatively undisturbed to highly modified. A total of seven indicators (potential denitrification; an index of denitrification potential relative to sediment organic matter; benthic algal growth on artificial substrates amended with (a) N only, (b) P only, and (c) N and P; and δ15N of aquatic plants and benthic sediment) were measured at 53 streams in southeast Queensland, Australia. The indicators were evaluated by their response to a defined gradient of agricultural land-use disturbance as well as practical aspects of using the indicators as part of a monitoring program. Regression models based on descriptors of the disturbance gradient explained a large proportion of the variation in six of the seven indicators. Denitrification index, algal growth in N amended substrate, and δ15N of aquatic plants demonstrated the best regression. However, the δ15N value of benthic sediment was found to be the best indicator overall for incorporation into a monitoring program, as samples were relatively easy to collect and process, and were successfully collected at more than 90% of the study sites.

A comparison of stability and bifurcation criteria for inflated spherical elastic shells

The nonlinear stability analysis introduced by Chen and Haughton [1] is employed to study the full nonlinear stability of the non-homogeneous spherically symmetric deformation of an elastic thick-walled sphere. The shell is composed of an arbitrary homogeneous, incompressible elastic material. The stability criterion ultimately requires the solution of a third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation. Numerical calculations performed for a wide variety of well-known incompressible materials are then compared with existing bifurcation results and are found to be identical. Further analysis and comparison between stability and bifurcation are conducted for the case of thin shells and we prove by direct calculation that the two criteria are identical for all modes and all materials.

Donald Ezekiel AM : passionate and innovative contact lens practitioner and manufacturer

Donald Ezekiel (known to all as ‘Don’) was born in Singapore on September 12, 1936, to a German mother and Iraqi father. His parents were Jewish refugees, who met in Batavia,1 married and alternately lived in Batavia and Singapore. The family established their primary residence in Singapore after Don’s older brother Eric (later to become a haematologist) was born in 1934. The Ezekiel family was forced to flee in 1941 when the Japanese bombed Singapore and were fortunate to obtain passage on a hospital ship to Perth. They returned to Singapore after the war but left again on their own accord in 1951 due to race riots. The Ezekiels sold up everything in Singapore and decided to settle in Perth...

Assessment of the molecular structure of an intermediate member of the triplite-zwieselite mineral series: A raman and infrared study

The mineral series triplite-zwieselite with theoretical formula (Mn2+)2(PO4)(F)-(Fe2+)2(PO4)(F) from the El Criolo granitic pegmatite, located in the Eastern Pampean Ranges of Córdoba Province, was studied using electron microprobe, thermogravimetry, and Raman and infrared spectroscopy. The analysis of the mineral provided a formula of (Fe1.00, Mn0.85, Ca0.08, Mg0.06)∑2.00(PO4)1.00(F0.80, OH0.20)∑1.00. An intense Raman band at 981 cm−1 with a shoulder at 977 cm−1 is assigned to the ν1 symmetric stretching mode. The observation of two bands for the phosphate symmetric stretching mode offers support for the concept that the phosphate units in the structure of triplite-zwieselite are not equivalent. Low-intensity Raman bands at 1012, 1036, 1071, 1087, and 1127 cm−1 are assigned to the ν3 antisymmetric stretching modes. A set of Raman bands at 572, 604, 639, and 684 cm−1 are attributed to the ν4 out-of-plane bending modes. A single intense Raman band is found at 3508 cm−1 and is assigned to the stretching vibration of hydroxyl units. Infrared bands are observed at 3018, 3125, and 3358 cm−1 and are attributed to water stretching vibrations. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Spectroscopy Letters to view the supplemental file.

The influence of family history of hypertension on disease prevalence and associated metabolic risk factors among Sri Lankan adults

Background Hypertension is a major contributor to the global non-communicable disease burden. Family history is an important non-modifiable risk factor for hypertension. The present study aims to describe the influence of family history (FH) on hypertension prevalence and associated metabolic risk factors in a large cohort of South Asian adults, from a nationally representative sample from Sri Lanka. Methods A cross-sectional survey among 5,000 Sri Lankan adults, evaluating FH at the levels of parents, grandparents, siblings and children. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed in all patients with ‘presence of hypertension’ as dichotomous dependent variable and using family history in parents, grandparents, siblings and children as binary independent variables. The adjusted odds ratio controlling for confounders (age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and physical activity) are presented below. Results In all adults the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in patients with a FH (29.3 %, n = 572/1951) than those without (24.4 %, n = 616/2530) (p < 0.001). Presence of a FH significantly increased the risk of hypertension (OR:1.29; 95 % CI:1.13-1.47), obesity (OR:1.36; 95 % CI: 1.27–1.45), central obesity (OR:1.30; 95 % CI 1.22–1.40) and metabolic syndrome (OR:1.19; 95 % CI: 1.08–1.30). In all adults presence of family history in parents (OR:1.28; 95 % CI: 1.12–1.48), grandparents (OR:1.34; 95 % CI: 1.20–1.50) and siblings (OR:1.27; 95 % CI: 1.21–1.33) all were associated with significantly increased risk of developing hypertension. Conclusions Our results show that the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in those with a FH of hypertension. FH of hypertension was also associated with the prevalence of obesity, central obesity and metabolic syndrome. Individuals with a FH of hypertension form an easily identifiable group who may benefit from targeted interventions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]