Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

An analysis of the timeliness and nature of profit warnings in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis (GFC) has severely impacted the financial position and performance of many companies internationally. Because of its severity and associated increase in uncertainty it challenges the effectiveness of existing disclosure regulation. Australia provides a unique environment in which to test the effects of the GFC on corporate disclosure because statutory rules mandate the timely disclosure of ‘price-sensitive’ information (ASX Rule 3.1) by listed entities. Exploiting this institutional setting we investigate the determinants and timeliness of profit warnings issued by the top 500 ASX-listed firms with profit declines in the 2009 fiscal year. Our findings show that firms behave differently with regard to the issuance of profit warnings: larger and more indebted firms are more likely to issue a profit warning and tend to be timelier; surprisingly, poorer performing firms tend to release the news more quickly and this might be attributed to an increasing threat of litigation. Our analysis of profit warning determinants shows interesting results with the presence of asset impairments hindering the early disclosure of profit warnings. Our findings are novel for two main reasons: first, we provide insights into the impact of global financial crisis on profit warning behaviour; second, we are the first to examine the differential impact of alternative features of profit warnings on disclosure timeliness. The findings have implications for regulators in determining compliance with continuous disclosure rules and more broadly, for market participants in interpreting profit warnings.

Institutional investors, risk/return and corporate governance : practical lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

The global grown in institutional investors means that firms can no longer ignore their influence in capital markets. However, not all institutional investors have the same motives to influence the firms they invest in. Institution investors' ability to influence management depends on the size of their investment and whether they have any business relations with the firm. Using a sample of Australian firms from 2006 to 2008, our empirical results show that the proportion of a company's shares held by institutional investors is positively associated with firm governance ratings, risk and profitability. This study shows that a positive association between risk and return is associated with large active institutional ownership, which we interpret as shareholders with sufficient power to pressure management to increase short-term profits.

An exploration of NGO and media efforts to influence workplace practices and associated accountability within global supply chains

This paper investigates how social and environmental non-government organisations (NGOs) use the news media in an endeavour to create changes in the social performance and associated accountabilities of multinational buying companies’ (MBCs’) supply chains located in the developing country of Bangladesh. In this research, we explicitly seek the views of senior officers from global and local NGOs operating in Bangladesh, as well as the views of journalists from major global and local news media organisations. Our results show that social and environmental NGOs strategically use the news media in an effort to effect changes in corporate labour practices and related disclosure practices. More particularly, both the NGOs and the news media representatives stated that NGOs would be relatively powerless to create change in corporate without media coverage. This is the first known study to specifically address the joint and complementary role of NGOs and the news media in potentially creating changes in the social and environmental operating and disclosure practices of supply chains emanating from a developing country.

How innovation and R&D happen in the upstream oil & gas industry : insights from a global survey

Few would disagree that the upstream oil & gas industry has become more technology-intensive over the years. But how does innovation happen in the industry? Specifically, what ideas and inputs flow from which parts of the sector׳s value network, and where do these inputs go? And how do firms and organizations from different countries contribute differently to this process? This paper puts forward the results of a survey designed to shed light on these questions. Carried out in collaboration with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), the survey was sent to 469 executives and senior managers who played a significant role with regard to R&D and/or technology deployment in their respective business units. A total of 199 responses were received from a broad range of organizations and countries around the world. Several interesting themes and trends emerge from the results, including: (1) service companies tend to file considerably more patents per innovation than other types of organization; (2) over 63% of the deployed innovations reported in the survey originated in service companies; (3) neither universities nor government-led research organizations were considered to be valuable sources of new information and knowledge in the industry׳s R&D initiatives, and; (4) despite the increasing degree of globalization in the marketplace, the USA still plays an extremely dominant role in the industry׳s overall R&D and technology deployment activities. By providing a detailed and objective snapshot of how innovation happens in the upstream oil & gas sector, this paper provides a valuable foundation for future investigations and discussions aimed at improving how R&D and technology deployment are managed within the industry. The methodology did result in a coverage bias within the survey, however, and the limitations arising from this are explored.

Paradigm shifts : global copyright politics and disability rights

Governments around the world need to take immediate coordinated action to reverse the 'book famine.' Disability rights don't conflict with 'normal exploitation' but copyright owners have been wary about all of the possible solutions to providing greater access. The Marrakesh Treaty promises to level out some of the disparity of access between people in developed and developing nations and remove the need for each jurisdiction to digitise a separate copy of each book. It is one of the only international agreements to mandate positive exceptions and may be the start of a pardigm shift in global copyright politics, made all the more remarkable in the face of heated opposition by global copyright industry representatives. It's not a legal problem, but one of political will. Resistance comes from a conflict with ideology: exceptions should be limited and international law should set only minimum standards.

Levels and trends of PBDEs and HBCDs in the global environment : status at the end of 2012

In this paper, we have compiled and reviewed the most recent literature, published from January2010 to December 2012, relating to the human exposure, environmental distribution, behaviour, fate and concentration time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) flame retardants, in order to establish their current trends and priorities for future study. Due to the large volume of literature included, we have provided full detail of the reviewed studies as Electronic Supplementary Information and here summarise the most relevant findings. Decreasing time trends for penta-mix PBDE congeners were seen for soils in northern Europe, sewage sludge in Sweden and the USA, carp from a US river, trout from three of the Great Lakes and in Arctic and UK marine mammals and many birds, but increasing time trends continue in Arctic polar bears and some birds at high trophic levels in northern Europe. This is a result of the time delay inherent in long-range atmospheric transport processes. In general, concentrations of BDE209 (the major component of the deca-mix PBDE product) are continuing to increase. Of major concern is the possible/likely debromination of the large reservoir of BDE209 in soils and sediments worldwide, to yield lower brominated congeners which are both more mobile and more toxic, and we have compiled the most recent evidence for the occurrence of this degradation process. Numerous studies reported here reinforce the importance o f this future concern. Time trends for HBCDs are mixed, with both increases and decreases evident in different matrices and locations and, notably, with increasing occurrence in birds of prey.

Strategic supply chain management factors influencing agribusiness innovation utilization

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically, an industry development paradox, using embryonic literature in the area of strategic supply chain management, together with innovation management literature. This study seeks to understand how, forming strategic supply chain relationships, and developing strategic supply chain capability, influences beneficial supply chain outcomes expected from utilizing industry-led innovation, in the form of electronic business solutions using the internet, in the Australian beef industry. Findings should add valuable insights to both academics and practitioners in the fields of supply chain innovation management and strategic supply chain management, and expand knowledge to current literature. Design/methodology/approach – This is a quantitative study comparing innovative and non-innovative supply chain operatives in the Australian beef industry, through factor analysis and structural equation modeling using PAWS Statistical V18 and AMOS V18 to analyze survey data from 412 respondents from the Australian beef supply chain. Findings – Key findings are that both innovative and non-innovative supply chain operators attribute supply chain synchronization as only a minor indicator of strategic supply chain capability, contrary to the literature; and they also indicate strategic supply chain capability has a minor influence in achieving beneficial outcomes from utilizing industry-led innovation. These results suggest a lack of coordination between supply chain operatives in the industry. They also suggest a lack of understanding of the benefits of developing a strategic supply chain management competence, particularly in relation to innovation agendas, and provides valuable insights as to why an industry paradox exists in terms of the level of investment in industry-led innovation, vs the level of corresponding benefit achieved. Research limitations/implications – Results are not generalized due to the single agribusiness industry studied and the single research method employed. However, this provides opportunity for further agribusiness studies in this area and also studies using alternate methods, such as qualitative, in-depth analysis of these factors and their relationships, which may confirm results or produce different results. Further, this study empirically extends existing theoretical contributions and insights into the roles of strategic supply chain management and innovation management in improving supply chain and ultimately industry performance while providing practical insights to supply chain practitioners in this and other similar agribusiness industries. Practical implications – These findings confirm results from a 2007 research (Ketchen et al., 2007) which suggests supply chain practice and teachings need to take a strategic direction in the twenty-first century. To date, competence in supply chain management has built up from functional and process orientations rather than from a strategic perspective. This study confirms that there is a need for more generalists that can integrate with various disciplines, particularly those who can understand and implement strategic supply chain management. Social implications – Possible social implications accrue through the development of responsible government policy in terms of industry supply chains. Strategic supply chain management and supply chain innovation management have impacts to the social fabric of nations through the sustainability of their industries, especially agribusiness industries which deal with food safety and security. If supply chains are now the competitive weapon of nations then funding innovation and managing their supply chain competitiveness in global markets requires a strategic approach from everyone, not just the industry participants. Originality/value – This is original empirical research, seeking to add value to embryonic and important developing literature concerned with adopting a strategic approach to supply chain management. It also seeks to add to existing literature in the area of innovation management, particularly through greater understanding of the implications of nations developing industry-wide, industry-led innovation agendas, and their ramifications to industry supply chains.

An Australian perspective on the ALI-III global principles for cooperation in International insolvency cases

In 2012, Professor Ian Fletcher (United Kingdom) and Professor Bob Wessels (The Netherlands) presented a Report to the American Law Institute and the International Insolvency Institute entitled Transnational Insolvency: Global Principles for Cooperation in International Insolvency Cases (“Global Principles”). This followed their appointment as Joint Reporters to investigate whether the essential provisions of the American Law Institute Principles of Cooperation among the North American Free Trade Agreement Countries with their annexed Guidelines Applicable to Court-to-Court Communication in Cross-border Cases may, with certain necessary modifications, be acceptable for use by jurisdictions across the world. This article comments on the Global Principles from the perspective of a jurisdiction which has adopted the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency (“Model Law”). In 2008, Australia enacted a standalone statute, the Cross-border Insolvency Act 2008 (Cth) to which is annexed the Model Law. In that process, it made minimal changes to the Model Law text. Against the background of the 2008 Act, related procedural laws as well as Australia’s general insolvency statutes and recent cross-border insolvency jurisprudence, this article comments on the potential relevance of the Transnational Insolvency Report as a point of reference for Australian courts and insolvency administrators when addressing international insolvency cases. By comparing the Global Principles with the Model Law as closely adopted in Australia, this analysis is a resource for other Model Law jurisdictions when considering the potential relevance of the Global Principles for their own international insolvency practice.

A continental-scale tool for acoustic identification of European bats

Summary 1. Acoustic methods are used increasingly to survey and monitor bat populations. However, the use of acoustic methods at continental scales can be hampered by the lack of standardized and objective methods to identify all species recorded. This makes comparable continent-wide monitoring difficult, impeding progress towards developing biodiversity indicators, transboundary conservation programmes and monitoring species distribution changes. 2. Here we developed a continental-scale classifier for acoustic identification of bats, which can be used throughout Europe to ensure objective, consistent and comparable species identifications. We selected 1350 full-spectrum reference calls from a set of 15 858 calls of 34 European species, from EchoBank, a global echolocation call library. We assessed 24 call parameters to evaluate how well they distinguish between species and used the 12 most useful to train a hierarchy of ensembles of artificial neural networks to distinguish the echolocation calls of these bat species. 3. Calls are first classified to one of five call-type groups, with a median accuracy of 97·6%. The median species-level classification accuracy is 83·7%, providing robust classification for most European species, and an estimate of classification error for each species. 4. These classifiers were packaged into an online tool, iBatsID, which is freely available, enabling anyone to classify European calls in an objective and consistent way, allowing standardized acoustic identification across the continent. 5. Synthesis and applications. iBatsID is the first freely available and easily accessible continental- scale bat call classifier, providing the basis for standardized, continental acoustic bat monitoring in Europe. This method can provide key information to managers and conservation planners on distribution changes and changes in bat species activity through time.

Challenging the myth of an "epidemic" of common mental disorders : trends in the global prevalence of anxiety and depression between 1990 and 2010

Background Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common and disabling mental disorders. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that common mental disorders have become more prevalent over the past two decades. Methods We conducted a systematic review of prevalence, remission, duration, and excess mortality studies for anxiety disorders and MDD and then used a Bayesian meta-regression approach to estimate point prevalence for 1990, 2005, and 2010. We also conducted a post-hoc search for studies that used the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as a measure of psychological distress and tested for trends to present a qualitative comparison of study findings. Results This study found no evidence for an increased prevalence of anxiety disorders or MDD. While the crude number of cases increased by 36%, this was explained by population growth and changing age structures. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders was estimated at 3.8% (3.6-4.1%) in 1990 and 4.0% (3.7-4.2%) in 2010. The prevalence of MDD was unchanged at 4.4% in 1990 (4.2-4.7%) and 2010 (4.1-4.7%). However, 8 of the 11 GHQ studies found a significant increase in psychological distress over time. Conclusions The perceived "epidemic" of common mental disorders is most likely explained by the increasing numbers of affected patients driven by increasing population sizes. Additional factors that may explain this perception include the higher rates of psychological distress as measured using symptom checklists, greater public awareness, and the use of terms such as anxiety and depression in a context where they do not represent clinical disorders.

The regional distribution of anxiety disorders : implications for the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010

Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three-fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8-2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1-7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates.

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease : a comparative risk assessment

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.