537 resultados para Statistical decision.
Resumo:
Purpose – This paper presents findings of a research study aimed at identifying critical sustainability factors for improved implementation of Industrialised Building Systems (IBS). It also highlights the importance of decision support, through the establishment of decision making guidelines, for sustainability deliverables in IBS development. Design/methodology/approach – A broad range of sustainability factors, as perceived by researchers and practitioners, are identified through a comprehensive literature study. A study of the survey and statistical data analysis is conducted to examine the criticality of these sustainability factors in IBS implementation. Findings – 18 sustainability factors are identified as critical to IBS implementation. Their interrelationships and driving forces are explored, which leads to the development of a conceptual model to map these factors for actions or potential solutions. The work provides a sound basis towards a set of decision making guidelines for sustainable IBS implementation. Originality/value – Compared with previous studies that focus on technical or economical aspects, this study extends existing knowledge on construction prefabrication by linking all aspects of sustainability issues with the design process. It also covers industry characteristics of developing countries, as represented by Malaysia’s scenarios.
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We argue that aesthetic knowledge, which is a form of tacit knowledge of beauty and related concepts, is an important, yet under-researched, topic in the study of organizational decision making processes. The significance of aesthetic knowledge for decision making processes is derived from its universal application by humans to commonplace practices; its use as the basis of decision criteria in complex situations to which the effective application of logic and reason is difficult; and its role both in assisting cognition in general and in enabling the choice of solutions generated from rational decision making processes. Despite its importance, the empirical research examining the application of aesthetic knowledge in organizational decision making processes is limited. Further detailed study of aesthetic knowledge in the context of organizational decision making processes is required to extend the recent movement in the field aimed at examining the role that extrarational, human-centered factors play in organizational decisions.
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Effective, statistically robust sampling and surveillance strategies form an integral component of large agricultural industries such as the grains industry. Intensive in-storage sampling is essential for pest detection, Integrated Pest Management (IPM), to determine grain quality and to satisfy importing nation’s biosecurity concerns, while surveillance over broad geographic regions ensures that biosecurity risks can be excluded, monitored, eradicated or contained within an area. In the grains industry, a number of qualitative and quantitative methodologies for surveillance and in-storage sampling have been considered. Primarily, research has focussed on developing statistical methodologies for in storage sampling strategies concentrating on detection of pest insects within a grain bulk, however, the need for effective and statistically defensible surveillance strategies has also been recognised. Interestingly, although surveillance and in storage sampling have typically been considered independently, many techniques and concepts are common between the two fields of research. This review aims to consider the development of statistically based in storage sampling and surveillance strategies and to identify methods that may be useful for both surveillance and in storage sampling. We discuss the utility of new quantitative and qualitative approaches, such as Bayesian statistics, fault trees and more traditional probabilistic methods and show how these methods may be used in both surveillance and in storage sampling systems.
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The study investigated early childhood teacher decision making at the preschool level in the state of Victoria, Australia. Victorian teachers at the preschool level were in an interesting position in 2004. Unlike most other Australian states Victoria did not have a curriculum framework guiding educational content and pedagogy. Consequently, this study was able to take advantage of this situation and examine teacher decision making at a time when early childhood teachers were relatively autonomous in deciding curriculum content. The opportunity to study teacher decision making in this way has since passed, as Victorian preschool teachers are now regulated by newly introduced state and national curricula frameworks. To identify influences affecting teacher decision making three preschool teachers were interviewed and curricula related policies were analysed. The data were analysed using Fairclough’s critical discourse analysis (CDA) technique. Critical discourse analysis enabled a close analysis of influences on teacher decision making illustrating how discourse is legitimated, marginalised, and silenced in certain curricula practices. Critical theory was the underpinning framework used for the study and enabled taken-for-granted understandings to be uncovered within early childhood policies and teacher interviews. Key findings were that despite there not being a government-mandated curricula framework for Victorian preschool education in 2004, teachers were held accountable for their curricula practice. Yet as professionals, early childhood teachers were denied public acknowledgment of their expertise as they were almost invisible in policy. Subsequently, teachers’ authority as professionals with curricula knowledge was diminished. The study found that developmentally appropriate practice (DAP) was a dominant discourse influencing teacher decision making (TDM). It operated as legitimated discourse in the 2004 Victorian preschool context. Additionally, the study found that teacher directed practice was legitimated, marginalised, and silenced by teachers. The findings have implications for early childhood teacher decision making at the practice, research, and policy levels. Findings show that the dominance of the DAP discourse informing teacher decision making limits other ways of thinking and practising.
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There is a need for an accurate real-time quantitative system that would enhance decision-making in the treatment of osteoarthritis. To achieve this objective, significant research is required that will enable articular cartilage properties to be measured and categorized for health and functionality without the need for laboratory tests involving biopsies for pathological evaluation. Such a system would provide the capability of access to the internal condition of the cartilage matrix and thus extend the vision-based arthroscopy that is currently used beyond the subjective evaluation of surgeons. The system required must be able to non-destructively probe the entire thickness of the cartilage and its immediate subchondral bone layer. In this thesis, near infrared spectroscopy is investigated for the purpose mentioned above. The aim is to relate it to the structure and load bearing properties of the cartilage matrix to the near infrared absorption spectrum and establish functional relationships that will provide objective, quantitative and repeatable categorization of cartilage condition outside the area of visible degradation in a joint. Based on results from traditional mechanical testing, their innovative interpretation and relationship with spectroscopic data, new parameters were developed. These were then evaluated for their consistency in discriminating between healthy viable and degraded cartilage. The mechanical and physico-chemical properties were related to specific regions of the near infrared absorption spectrum that were identified as part of the research conducted for this thesis. The relationships between the tissue's near infrared spectral response and the new parameters were modeled using multivariate statistical techniques based on partial least squares regression (PLSR). With significantly high levels of statistical correlation, the modeled relationships were demonstrated to possess considerable potential in predicting the properties of unknown tissue samples in a quick and non-destructive manner. In order to adapt near infrared spectroscopy for clinical applications, a balance between probe diameter and the number of active transmit-receive optic fibres must be optimized. This was achieved in the course of this research, resulting in an optimal probe configuration that could be adapted for joint tissue evaluation. Furthermore, as a proof-of-concept, a protocol for obtaining the new parameters from the near infrared absorption spectra of cartilage was developed and implemented in a graphical user interface (GUI)-based software, and used to assess cartilage-on-bone samples in vitro. This conceptual implementation has been demonstrated, in part by the individual parametric relationship with the near infrared absorption spectrum, the capacity of the proposed system to facilitate real-time, non-destructive evaluation of cartilage matrix integrity. In summary, the potential of the optical near infrared spectroscopy for evaluating articular cartilage and bone laminate has been demonstrated in this thesis. The approach could have a spin-off for other soft tissues and organs of the body. It builds on the earlier work of the group at QUT, enhancing the near infrared component of the ongoing research on developing a tool for cartilage evaluation that goes beyond visual and subjective methods.
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The objective of this study was to identify key factors differentiating between exporters and non-exporters in the Chilean wine industry. Based on survey data collected from 61 wineries, the findings show that the main barriers for non-exporters are the lack of financial resources, limited quantities of stock for market expansion, management’s lack of knowledge and experience, and the high cost of travelling and participating in trade shows. The results also show that managers have educational levels and international experience exceeding those of other comparable New World wineries. Finally, in developing their main international markets, Chilean wineries did not target psychically close markets as identified in previous wine industry studies
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Much of our understanding of human thinking is based on probabilistic models. This innovative book by Jerome R. Busemeyer and Peter D. Bruza argues that, actually, the underlying mathematical structures from quantum theory provide a much better account of human thinking than traditional models. They introduce the foundations for modelling probabilistic-dynamic systems using two aspects of quantum theory. The first, "contextuality", is a way to understand interference effects found with inferences and decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The second, "entanglement", allows cognitive phenomena to be modelled in non-reductionist ways. Employing these principles drawn from quantum theory allows us to view human cognition and decision in a totally new light...
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Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to extend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.
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The author aims at developing a better understanding of unstructured strategic decision making processes and the conditions for achieving successful decision outcomes. Specifically he investigates the processes used to make CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions. To reveal the fundamental differences between CRE decision-making in practice and the prescriptive ‘best practice’ advocated in the CRE literature, a study of seven leading Italian management consulting firms is undertaken addressing the aspects of content and process of decisions. This research makes its primary contribution by identifying the importance and difficulty of finding the right balance between problem complexity, process richness and cohesion to ensure a decision-making process that is sufficiently rich and yet quick enough to deliver a prompt outcome. While doing so, the study also provides more empirical evidence to some of the most established theories of decision-making, while reinterpreting their mono-dimensional arguments in a multi-dimensional model of successful decision-making.
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Clinical information systems have become important tools in contemporary clinical patient care. However, there is a question of whether the current clinical information systems are able to effectively support clinicians in decision making processes. We conducted a survey to identify some of the decision making issues related to the use of existing clinical information systems. The survey was conducted among the end users of the cardiac surgery unit, quality and safety unit, intensive care unit and clinical costing unit at The Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH). Based on the survey results and reviewed literature, it was identified that support from the current information systems for decision-making is limited. Also, survey results showed that the majority of respondents considered lack in data integration to be one of the major issues followed by other issues such as limited access to various databases, lack of time and lack in efficient reporting and analysis tools. Furthermore, respondents pointed out that data quality is an issue and the three major data quality issues being faced are lack of data completeness, lack in consistency and lack in data accuracy. Conclusion: Current clinical information systems support for the decision-making processes in Cardiac Surgery in this institution is limited and this could be addressed by integrating isolated clinical information systems.
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Research interest in pedestrian behaviour spans the retail industry, emergency services, urban planners and other agencies. Most models to simulate and model pedestrian movement can be distinguished on the basis of geographical scale, from the micro-scale movement of obstacle avoidance, through the meso-scale of individuals planning multi-stop shopping trips, up to the macro-scale of overall flow of masses of people between places. In this paper, route-choice decision-making model is devised for modelling passengers flow in airport terminal. A set of devised advanced traits of passengers is firstly proposed. Advanced traits take into account a passenger’s cognitive preferences and demonstrate underlying motivations of route-choice decisions. Although the activities of passengers are normally regarded as stochastic and sometimes unpredictable, real scenarios of passenger flows are basically feasible to be compared with virtual simulations in terms of tactical route-choice decision-making. Passengers in the model are as intelligent agents who possess a bunch of initial basic traits and are categorized into five distinguish groups in terms of routing preferences. Route choices are consecutively determined by inferring current advanced traits according to the utility matrix.
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Broad, early definitions of sustainable development have caused confusion and hesitation among local authorities and planning professionals. This confusion has arisen because loosely defined principles of sustainable development have been employed when setting policies and planning projects, and when gauging the efficiencies of these policies in the light of designated sustainability goals. The question of how this theory-rhetoric-practice gap can be filled is the main focus of this chapter. It examines the triple bottom line approach–one of the sustainability accounting approaches widely employed by governmental organisations–and the applicability of this approach to sustainable urban development. The chapter introduces the ‘Integrated Land Use and Transportation Indexing Model’ that incorporates triple bottom line considerations with environmental impact assessment techniques via a geographic, information systemsbased decision support system. This model helps decision-makers in selecting policy options according to their economic, environmental and social impacts. Its main purpose is to provide valuable knowledge about the spatial dimensions of sustainable development, and to provide fine detail outputs on the possible impacts of urban development proposals on sustainability levels. In order to embrace sustainable urban development policy considerations, the model is sensitive to the relationship between urban form, travel patterns and socio-economic attributes. Finally, the model is useful in picturing the holistic state of urban settings in terms of their sustainability levels, and in assessing the degree of compatibility of selected scenarios with the desired sustainable urban future.
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Cognitive radio is an emerging technology proposing the concept of dynamic spec- trum access as a solution to the looming problem of spectrum scarcity caused by the growth in wireless communication systems. Under the proposed concept, non- licensed, secondary users (SU) can access spectrum owned by licensed, primary users (PU) so long as interference to PU are kept minimal. Spectrum sensing is a crucial task in cognitive radio whereby the SU senses the spectrum to detect the presence or absence of any PU signal. Conventional spectrum sensing assumes the PU signal as ‘stationary’ and remains in the same activity state during the sensing cycle, while an emerging trend models PU as ‘non-stationary’ and undergoes state changes. Existing studies have focused on non-stationary PU during the transmission period, however very little research considered the impact on spectrum sensing when the PU is non-stationary during the sensing period. The concept of PU duty cycle is developed as a tool to analyse the performance of spectrum sensing detectors when detecting non-stationary PU signals. New detectors are also proposed to optimise detection with respect to duty cycle ex- hibited by the PU. This research consists of two major investigations. The first stage investigates the impact of duty cycle on the performance of existing detec- tors and the extent of the problem in existing studies. The second stage develops new detection models and frameworks to ensure the integrity of spectrum sensing when detecting non-stationary PU signals. The first investigation demonstrates that conventional signal model formulated for stationary PU does not accurately reflect the behaviour of a non-stationary PU. Therefore the performance calculated and assumed to be achievable by the conventional detector does not reflect actual performance achieved. Through analysing the statistical properties of duty cycle, performance degradation is proved to be a problem that cannot be easily neglected in existing sensing studies when PU is modelled as non-stationary. The second investigation presents detectors that are aware of the duty cycle ex- hibited by a non-stationary PU. A two stage detection model is proposed to improve the detection performance and robustness to changes in duty cycle. This detector is most suitable for applications that require long sensing periods. A second detector, the duty cycle based energy detector is formulated by integrat- ing the distribution of duty cycle into the test statistic of the energy detector and suitable for short sensing periods. The decision threshold is optimised with respect to the traffic model of the PU, hence the proposed detector can calculate average detection performance that reflect realistic results. A detection framework for the application of spectrum sensing optimisation is proposed to provide clear guidance on the constraints on sensing and detection model. Following this framework will ensure the signal model accurately reflects practical behaviour while the detection model implemented is also suitable for the desired detection assumption. Based on this framework, a spectrum sensing optimisation algorithm is further developed to maximise the sensing efficiency for non-stationary PU. New optimisation constraints are derived to account for any PU state changes within the sensing cycle while implementing the proposed duty cycle based detector.
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Over the last few decades, construction project performance has been evaluated due to the increase of delays, cost overruns and quality failures. Growing numbers of disputes, inharmonious working environments, conflict, blame cultures, and mismatches of objectives among project teams have been found to be contributory factors to poor project performance. Performance measurement (PM) approaches have been developed to overcome these issues, however, the comprehensiveness of PM as an overall approach is still criticised in terms of the iron triangle; namely time, cost, and quality. PM has primarily focused on objective measures, however, continuous improvement requires the inclusion of subjective measures, particularly contractor satisfaction (Co-S). It is challenging to deal with the two different groups of large and small-medium contractor satisfaction as to date, Co-S has not been extensively defined, primarily in developing countries such as Malaysia. Therefore, a Co-S model is developed in this research which aims to fulfil the current needs in the construction industry by integrating performance measures to address large and small-medium contractor perceptions. The positivist paradigm used in the research was adhered to by reviewing relevant literature and evaluating expert discussions on the research topic. It yielded a basis for the contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) development which consists of three elements: contractor satisfaction (Co-S) dimensions; contributory factors and characteristics (project and participant). Using valid questionnaire results from 136 contractors in Malaysia lead to the prediction of several key factors of contractor satisfaction and to an examination of the relationships between elements. The relationships were examined through a series of sequential statistical analyses, namely correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), t-tests and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Forward and backward MRAs were used to develop Co-S mathematical models. Sixteen Co-S models were developed for both large and small-medium contractors. These determined that the large contractor Malaysian Co-S was most affected by the conciseness of project scope and quality of the project brief. Contrastingly, Co-S for small-medium contractors was strongly affected by the efficiency of risk control in a project. The results of the research provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that appropriate communication systems in projects negatively contributes to large Co-S with respect to cost and profitability. The uniqueness of several Co-S predictors was also identified through a series of analyses on small-medium contractors. These contractors appear to be less satisfied than large contractors when participants lack effectiveness in timely authoritative decision-making and communication between project team members. Interestingly, the empirical results show that effective project health and safety measures are influencing factors in satisfying both large and small-medium contractors. The perspectives of large and small-medium contractors in respect to the performance of the entire project development were derived from the Co-S models. These were statistically validated and refined before a new Co-S model was developed. Developing such a unique model has the potential to increase project value and benefit all project participants. It is important to improve participant collaboration as it leads to better project performance. This study may encourage key project participants; such as client, consultant, subcontractor and supplier; to increase their attention to contractor needs in the development of a project. Recommendations for future research include investigating other participants‟ perspectives on CoSMo and the impact of the implementation of CoSMo in a project, since this study is focused purely on the contractor perspective.