Immigrant wage differentials and the role of self-employment in Australia

Immigration has played an important role in the historical development of Australia. Thus, it is no surprise that a large body of empirical work has developed, which focuses upon how migrants fare in the land of opportunity. Much of the literature is comparatively recent, i.e. the last ten years or so, encouraged by the advent of public availability of Australian crosssection micro data. Several different aspects of migrant welfare have been addressed, with major emphasis being placed upon earnings and unemployment experience. For recent examples see Haig (1980), Stromback (1984), Chiswick and Miller (1985), Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) and Beggs and Chapman (1988). The present paper contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the native/migrant earnings differential. The data utilised are from the rather neglected Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS Special Supplementary Survey No.4. 1982, otherwise known as the Family Survey. The paper also examines the importance of distinguishing between the wage and salary sector and the self-employment sector when discussing native/migrant differentials. Separate earnings equations for the two labour market groups are estimated and the native/migrant earnings differential is broken down by employment status. This is a novel application in the Australian context and provides some insight into the earnings of the selfemployed, a group that despite its size (around 20 per cent of the labour force) is frequently ignored by economic research. Most previous empirical research fails to examine the effect of employment status on earnings. Stromback (1984) includes a dummy variable representing self-employment status in an earnings equation estimated over a pooled sample of paid and self-employed workers. The variable is found to be highly significant, which leads Stromback to question the efficacy of including the self-employed in the estimation sample. The suggestion is that part of self-employed earnings represent a return to non-human capital investment, i.e. investments in machinery, buildings etc, the structural determinants of earnings differ significantly from those for paid employees. Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) deal with differences between paid employees and the selfemployed by deleting the latter from their sample. However, deleting the self-employed from the estimation sample may lead to bias in the OLS estimation method (see Heckman 1979). The desirable properties of OLS are dependent upon estimation on a random sample. Thus, the 'Ran-Nam and Nevile results are likely to suffer from bias unless individuals are randomly allocated between self-employment and paid employment. The current analysis extends Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) by explicitly treating the choice of paid employment versus self-employment as being endogenously determined. This allows an explicit test for the appropriateness of deleting self-employed workers from the sample. Earnings equations that are corrected for sample selection are estimated for both natives and migrants in the paid employee sector. The Heckman (1979) two-step estimator is employed. The paper is divided into five major sections. The next section presents the econometric model incorporating the specification of the earnings generating process together with an explicit model determining an individual's employment status. In Section 111 the data are described. Section IV draws together the main econometric results of the paper. First, the probit estimates of the labour market status equation are documented. This is followed by presentation and discussion of the Heckman two-stage estimates of the earnings specification for both native and migrant Australians. Separate earnings equations are estimated for paid employees and the self-employed. Section V documents estimates of the nativelmigrant earnings differential for both categories of employees. To aid comparison with earlier work, the Oaxaca decomposition of the earnings differential for paid-employees is carried out for both the simple OLS regression results as well as the parameter estimates corrected for sample selection effects. These differentials are interpreted and compared with previous Australian findings. A short section concludes the paper.

Permeability estimation conditioned to geophysical downhole log data in sandstones of the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland : methods and application

This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.

The construction contract bidder homogeneity assumption : an empirical test

This paper describes an empirical study to test the proposition that all construction contract bidders are homogeneous ie. they can be treated as behaving collectively in an identical (statistical) manner. Examination of previous analyses of bidding data reveals a flaw in the method of standardising bids across different size contracts and a new procedure is proposed which involves the estimation of a contract datum. Three independent sets of bidding data were then subjected to this procedure and estimates of the necessary distributional parameters obtained. These were then tested against the bidder homogeneity assumption resulting in the conclusion that the assumption may be appropriate for a three parameter log-normal shape, but not for scale and location.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Estimation Of concrete resistance To chloride-ion penetration based On water accessible porosity and unit weight Of concrete

To ensure better concrete quality and long-term durability, there has been an increasing focus in recent years on the development of test methods for quality control of concrete. This paper presents a study to evaluate the effect of water accessible porosity and oven-dry unit weight on the resistance of concrete to chloride-ion penetration. Based on the experimental results and regression analyses, empirical relationships of the charge passed (ASTM C 1202) and chloride migration coefficient (NT Build 492) versus the water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight of the concrete are established. Using basic physical properties of water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight which can be easily determined, total charge passed and migration coefficient of the concrete can be estimated for quality control and for estimating durability of concrete.

A UKF-based estimation strategy for actuator fault detection of UASs

This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating correspond- ing velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.

Spatiotemporal modelling in estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soil

Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas emission. The aim of this research was to develop and apply statistical models to characterize the complex spatial and temporal variation in nitrous oxide emissions from soils under different land use conditions. This is critical when developing site-specific management plans to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. These studies can improve predictions and increase our understanding of environmental factors that influence nitrous oxide emissions. They also help to identify areas for future research, which can further improve the prediction of nitrous oxide in practice.

Urban transit quality of service : user perception and behaviour

Despite its potential multiple contributions to sustainable policy objectives, urban transit is generally not widely used by the public in terms of its market share compared to that of automobiles, particularly in affluent societies with low-density urban forms like Australia. Transit service providers need to attract more people to transit by improving transit quality of service. The key to cost-effective transit service improvements lies in accurate evaluation of policy proposals by taking into account their impacts on transit users. If transit providers knew what is more or less important to their customers, they could focus their efforts on optimising customer-oriented service. Policy interventions could also be specified to influence transit users’ travel decisions, with targets of customer satisfaction and broader community welfare. This significance motivates the research into the relationship between urban transit quality of service and its user perception as well as behaviour. This research focused on two dimensions of transit user’s travel behaviour: route choice and access arrival time choice. The study area chosen was a busy urban transit corridor linking Brisbane central business district (CBD) and the St. Lucia campus of The University of Queensland (UQ). This multi-system corridor provided a ‘natural experiment’ for transit users between the CBD and UQ, as they can choose between busway 109 (with grade-separate exclusive right-of-way), ordinary on-street bus 412, and linear fast ferry CityCat on the Brisbane River. The population of interest was set as the attendees to UQ, who travelled from the CBD or from a suburb via the CBD. Two waves of internet-based self-completion questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect data on sampled passengers’ perception of transit service quality and behaviour of using public transit in the study area. The first wave survey is to collect behaviour and attitude data on respondents’ daily transit usage and their direct rating of importance on factors of route-level transit quality of service. A series of statistical analyses is conducted to examine the relationships between transit users’ travel and personal characteristics and their transit usage characteristics. A factor-cluster segmentation procedure is applied to respodents’ importance ratings on service quality variables regarding transit route preference to explore users’ various perspectives to transit quality of service. Based on the perceptions of service quality collected from the second wave survey, a series of quality criteria of the transit routes under study was quantitatively measured, particularly, the travel time reliability in terms of schedule adherence. It was proved that mixed traffic conditions and peak-period effects can affect transit service reliability. Multinomial logit models of transit user’s route choice were estimated using route-level service quality perceptions collected in the second wave survey. Relative importance of service quality factors were derived from choice model’s significant parameter estimates, such as access and egress times, seat availability, and busway system. Interpretations of the parameter estimates were conducted, particularly the equivalent in-vehicle time of access and egress times, and busway in-vehicle time. Market segmentation by trip origin was applied to investigate the difference in magnitude between the parameter estimates of access and egress times. The significant costs of transfer in transit trips were highlighted. These importance ratios were applied back to quality perceptions collected as RP data to compare the satisfaction levels between the service attributes and to generate an action relevance matrix to prioritise attributes for quality improvement. An empirical study on the relationship between average passenger waiting time and transit service characteristics was performed using the service quality perceived. Passenger arrivals for services with long headways (over 15 minutes) were found to be obviously coordinated with scheduled departure times of transit vehicles in order to reduce waiting time. This drove further investigations and modelling innovations in passenger’ access arrival time choice and its relationships with transit service characteristics and average passenger waiting time. Specifically, original contributions were made in formulation of expected waiting time, analysis of the risk-aversion attitude to missing desired service run in the passengers’ access time arrivals’ choice, and extensions of the utility function specification for modelling passenger access arrival distribution, by using complicated expected utility forms and non-linear probability weighting to explicitly accommodate the risk of missing an intended service and passenger’s risk-aversion attitude. Discussions on this research’s contributions to knowledge, its limitations, and recommendations for future research are provided at the concluding section of this thesis.

Gradual training of cascaded shape regression for facial landmark localization and pose estimation

Facial landmarks play an important role in face recognition. They serve different steps of the recognition such as pose estimation, face alignment, and local feature extraction. Recently, cascaded shape regression has been proposed to accurately locate facial landmarks. A large number of weak regressors are cascaded in a sequence to fit face shapes to the correct landmark locations. In this paper, we propose to improve the method by applying gradual training. With this training, the regressors are not directly aimed to the true locations. The sequence instead is divided into successive parts each of which is aimed to intermediate targets between the initial and the true locations. We also investigate the incorporation of pose information in the cascaded model. The aim is to find out whether the model can be directly used to estimate head pose. Experiments on the Annotated Facial Landmarks in the Wild database have shown that the proposed method is able to improve the localization and give accurate estimates of pose.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Quantitative genetic parameter estimates for body and carcass traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest weight in Vietnam

We estimated the heritability and correlations between body and carcass weight traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest body weight in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body and carcass weight traits were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P>. 0.05). Maternal effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females than in males. Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in the mixed sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high. Although some issues remain regarding the best statistical model to be fitted to GFP data, our results suggest that selection for high harvest body weight based on breeding values estimated by fitting an animal model to the data can significantly improve mean body and carcass weight in GFP.

Traffic density estimation of signalised arterials with stop line detector and probe data

This research aims to develop a reliable density estimation method for signalised arterials based on cumulative counts from upstream and downstream detectors. In order to overcome counting errors associated with urban arterials with mid-link sinks and sources, CUmulative plots and Probe Integration for Travel timE estimation (CUPRITE) is employed for density estimation. The method, by utilizing probe vehicles’ samples, reduces or cancels the counting inconsistencies when vehicles’ conservation is not satisfied within a section. The method is tested in a controlled environment, and the authors demonstrate the effectiveness of CUPRITE for density estimation in a signalised section, and discuss issues associated with the method.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.