Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Renewable energy distribution in public spaces: Analyzing the case of Ballast Point Park in Sydney, using a triple bottom line approach

As cities are rapidly developing new interventions against climate change, embedding renewable energy in public spaces is an important strategy. However, most interventions primarily include environmental sustainability while neglecting the social and economic interrelationships of electricity production. Although there is a growing interest in sustainability within environmental design and landscape architecture, public spaces are still awaiting viable energy-conscious design and assessment interventions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate this issue in a renowned public space—Ballast Point Park in Sydney—using a triple bottom line (TBL) case study approach. The emerging factors and relationships of each component of TBL, within the context of public open space, are identified and discussed. With specific focus on renewable energy distribution in and around Ballast Point Park, the paper concludes with a general design framework, which conceptualizes an optimal distribution of onsite electricity produced from renewable sources embedded in public open spaces.

Book Review: "Below the Line: Producers and Production Studies in the New Television Economy by Vicki Mayer", Duke University Press, 2012

Vicki Mayer’s book is unusual in that, despite its title, it is not about television producers at all, or at least not in the sense that scholars and the television industry itself have traditionally understood the role. Rather than referring to those in creative, managerial or financial control, or those with substantial intellectual input into a program, Mayer uses the term in a deliberately broad sense to mean, essentially, anyone ‘whose labor, however small, contributes to [television] production’ (179).

Modeling and control of a robotic power line inspection vehicle

Power line inspection is a vital function for electricity supply companies but it involves labor-intensive and expensive procedures which are tedious and error-prone for humans to perform. A possible solution is to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with video surveillance equipment to perform the inspection. This paper considers how a small, electrically driven rotorcraft conceived for this application could be controlled by visually tracking the overhead supply lines. A dynamic model for a ducted-fan rotorcraft is presented and used to control the action of an Air Vehicle Simulator (AVS), consisting of a cable-array robot. Results show how visual data can be used to determine, and hence regulate in closed loop, the simulated vehicle’s position relative to the overhead lines.

Resilience and work-life balance in first-line nurse manager

Purpose The aim of this study was to explore how first-line nurse managers constructed the meaning of resilience and its relationship to work-life balance for nurses in Korea. Methods Participants were 20 first-line nurse managers working in six university hospitals. Data were collected through in-depth interviews from December 2011 to August 2012, and analyzed using Strauss and Corbin's grounded theory method. Results Analysis revealed that participants perceived work-life balance and resilience to be shaped by dynamic, reflective processes. The features consisting resilience included "positive thinking", "flexibility", "assuming responsibility", and "separating work and life". This perception of resilience has the potential to facilitate a shift in focus from negative to positive experiences, from rigidity to flexibility, from task-centered to person-centered thinking, and from the organization to life. Conclusions Recognizing the importance of work-life balance in producing and sustaining resilience in first-line nurse managers could increase retention in the Korean nursing workforce.

Beyond Moa's Ark and Wallace's Line: extralimital distribution of new species of Austronothrus (Acari, Oribatida, Crotoniidae) and the endemicity of the New Zealand oribatid mite fauna

The genus Austronothrus was previously known from three species recorded only from New Zealand. Austronothrus kinabalu sp. nov. is described from Sabah, Borneo and A. rostralis sp. nov. from Norfolk Island, south-west Pacific. A key to Austronothrus is included. These new species extend the distribution of Austronothrus beyond New Zealand and confirms that the subfamily Crotoniinae is not confined to former Gondwanan landmasses. The distribution pattern of Austronothrus spp., combining Oriental and Gondwanan localities, is indicative of a curved, linear track; consistent with the accretion of island arcs and volcanic terranes around the plate margins of the Pacific Ocean, with older taxa persisting on younger island though localised dispersal within island arc metapopulations. Phylogenetic analysis and an area cladogram are consistent with a broad ancestral distribution of Austronothrus in the Oriental region and on Gondwanan terranes, with subsequent divergence and distribution southward from the Sunda region to New Zealand. This pattern is more complex than might be expected if the New Zealand oribatid fauna was derived from dispersal following re-emergence of land after inundation during the Oligocene (25 mya), as well as if the fauna emanated from endemic, relictual taxa following separation of New Zealand from Gondwana during the Cretaceous (80 mya).

Broadening the perspective on the airborne transmission of respiratory infection

Airborne bioaerosols are becoming increasingly recognized as a potential route of transmission for the spread of bacterial and viral respiratory tract infections.

'Crossing the line': Criminological expertise, policy advice and the 'quarrelling society'

In October 2009, Professor David Nutt, eminent neuropsychopharmacologist and world leading expert on drugs, was dismissed as Chair of the UK government’s Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs for comments he made at the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies’ Eve Saville lecture. This article considers the role of evidence in political decision-making through the case of David Nutt. It is argued that the status of expert knowledge is in crisis for both the natural and the social sciences. We examine the role of the criminological advisor within emerging discourses of public criminology and suggest that high-stakes political issues can open up unprecedented opportunities for critical voices to engage in unbridled critique and to mobilise movements of dissent.

EVERSUN: A phase 2 trial of alternating sunitinib and everolimus as first-line therapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma

Background We hypothesised that alternating inhibitors of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) and mammalian target of rapamycin pathways would delay the development of resistance in advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). Patients and methods A single-arm, two-stage, multicentre, phase 2 trial to determine the activity, feasibility, and safety of 12-week cycles of sunitinib 50 mg daily 4 weeks on / 2 weeks off, alternating with everolimus 10 mg daily for 5 weeks on / 1 week off, until disease progression or prohibitive toxicity in favourable or intermediate-risk aRCC. The primary end point was proportion alive and progression-free at 6 months (PFS6m). The secondary end points were feasibility, tumour response, overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs). The correlative objective was to assess biomarkers and correlate with clinical outcome. Results We recruited 55 eligible participants from September 2010 to August 2012. Demographics: mean age 61, 71% male, favourable risk 16%, intermediate risk 84%. Cycle 2 commenced within 14 weeks for 80% of participants; 64% received ≥22 weeks of alternating therapy; 78% received ≥22 weeks of any treatment. PFS6m was 29/55 (53%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 40% to 66%). Tumour response rate was 7/55 (13%; 95% CI 4% to 22%, all partial responses). After median follow-up of 20 months, 47 of 55 (86%) had progressed with a median progression-free survival of 8 months (95% CI 5–10), and 30 of 55 (55%) had died with a median OS of 17 months (95% CI 12–undefined). AEs were consistent with those expected for each single agent. No convincing prognostic biomarkers were identified. Conclusions The EVERSUN regimen was feasible and safe, but its activity did not meet pre-specified values to warrant further research. This supports the current approach of continuing anti-VEGF therapy until progression or prohibitive toxicity before changing treatment.

Modelling of Electric Fields

South Africa has an electrical transmission grid of over 25 000 km of overhead power lines with voltages of 132 kV to 765 kV. The grid has been largely designed and built by the power utility, Eskom. This book embodies the planning philosophies, design principles and construction practices of Eskom. It is the culmination of decades of thought, study, research and the practical experience of many overhead power line engineers and researchers. The book covers the main aspects of overhead power line design and construction, from electrical first principles, system planning, insulation co-ordination (including live line working), mechanical design through to environmental impact management and power line communications. The content emphasises the need for close interaction between all technical disciplines involved and the importance of optimising designs for economy and performance. Additional challenges in South Africa are the relatively high altitude of the interior plateau (1 000 m to 1 700 m above sea level), severe lightning in some areas and long transmission distances. The book explains how these factors are accommodated in modern designs. Other advanced work covered includes the use and understanding of polymeric insulators, the judicious reduction of phase-to-phase spacings and the adoption of guyed structures.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

A candidate gene association study for growth performance in an improved Giant Freshwater Prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) culture line

A candidate gene approach using type I single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers can provide an effective method for detecting genes and gene regions that underlie phenotypic variation in adaptively significant traits. In the absence of available genomic data resources, transcriptomes were recently generated in Macrobrachium rosenbergii to identify candidate genes and markers potentially associated with growth. The characterisation of 47 candidate loci by ABI re-sequencing of four cultured and eight wild samples revealed 342 putative SNPs. Among these, 28 SNPs were selected in 23 growth-related candidate genes to genotype in 200 animals selected for improved growth performance in an experimental GFP culture line in Vietnam. The associations between SNP markers and individual growth performance were then examined. For additive and dominant effects, a total of three exonic SNPs in glycogen phosphorylase (additive), heat shock protein 90 (additive and dominant) and peroxidasin (additive), and a total of six intronic SNPs in ankyrin repeats-like protein (additive and dominant), rolling pebbles (dominant), transforming growth factor-β induced precursor (dominant), and UTP-glucose-1-phosphate uridylyltransferase 2 (dominant) genes showed significant associations with the estimated breeding values in the experimental animals (P =0.001−0.031). Individually, they explained 2.6−4.8 % of the genetic variance (R2=0.026−0.048). This is the first large set of SNP markers reported for M. rosenbergii and will be useful for confirmation of associations in other samples or culture lines as well as having applications in marker-assisted selection in future breeding programs.

Effectiveness of on-line resources to enhance student learning and engagement

BACKGROUND For engineering graduates to be work-ready with marketable skills they must not only be well-versed with engineering science and its applications, but also able to adapt to using commercial software that is widely used in engineering practice. Hydrological/hydraulic modelling is one aspect of engineering practice which demands the ability to apply fundamentals into design and construction using software. The user manuals for such software are usually tailored for the experienced engineer but not for undergraduates who typically are novices to concepts of modelling and software tools. As the focus of a course such as Advanced Water Engineering is on the wider aspects of engineering application of hydrological and hydraulic concepts, it is ineffective for the lecturers to direct the students to user manuals as students have neither the time nor the desire to sift through numerous pages in a manual. An alternative and efficient way to demonstrate the use of the software is enabling students to develop a model to simulate real-world scenario using the tools of the software and directing them to make informed decisions based on outcomes. PURPOSE Past experience of the lecturer showed that the resources available for the students left a knowledge gap leading to numerous student queries outside contact hours. The purpose of this study is to assess how effective purpose-built video resources can be in supplementing the traditional learning resources to enhance student learning. APPROACH Short-length animated video clips comprising guided step-by-step instructions were prepared using screen capture software to capture screen activity and later edited to focus on specific features using pop-up annotations; Vocal narration was purposely excluded to avoid disturbances due to noise and allow different learning paces of individual students. The video clips were made available to the students alongside the traditional resources/approaches such as in-class demonstrations, guideline notes, and tips for efficient and error-free procedural descriptions. The number of queries the lecturer received from the student cohort outside the lecture times was recorded. An anonymous survey to assess the usefulness and adequacy of the courseware was conducted. OUTCOMES While a significant decline in the number of student queries was noted, an overwhelming majority of the survey respondents confirmed the usefulness of the purpose-developed courseware. CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS/SUMMARY The survey and lecturer’s experience indicated that animated demonstration video clips illustrating the various steps involved in developing hydrologic and hydraulic models and simulating design scenarios is an effective supplement for traditional learning resources. Among the many advantages of the custom-made video clips as a learning resource are that they (1) highlight the aspects that are important to undergraduate learning but not available in the software manuals as the latter are designed for more mature users/learners; (2) provide short, to-the point communication in a step-by-step manner; (3) allow students flexibility to self-learn at their own pace; (4) enhance student learning; and (5) enable time savings for the lecturer in the long term by avoiding queries of a repetitive nature. It is expected that these newly developed resources will be improved to incorporate students’ suggestions before being offered to future cohorts of students. The concept can also be expanded to other relevant courses where animated demonstrations of key modelling steps are beneficial to student learning.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.