Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Suggestive linkage of the parathyroid receptor type 1 to osteoporosis

We have investigated the role of 23 candidate genes in the control of bone mineral density (BMD) by linkage studies in families of probands with osteoporosis (lumbar spine [LS] or femoral neck [FN] BMD T score < -2.5) and low BMD relative to an age- and gender-matched cohort (Z score < -2.0). One hundred and fifteen probands (35 male, 80 female) and 499 of their first- or second-degree relatives (223 males and 276 females) were recruited for the study. BMD was measured at the LS and FN using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and expressed as age- and gender-matched Z scores corrected for body mass index. The candidate genes studied were the androgen receptor, type I collagen A1 (COLIA1), COLIA2, COLIIA1, vitamin D receptor (VDR), colony-stimulating factor 1, calcium-sensing receptor, epidermal growth factor (EGF), estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1), fibrillin type 1, insulin-like growth factor 1, interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1α), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-11 (IL-11), osteopontin, parathyroid hormone (PTH), PTH-related peptide, PTH receptor type 1 (PTHR1), transforming growth factor-beta 1, and tumor necrosis factors alpha and beta. Sixty-four microsatellites lying close to or within these genes were investigated for linkage with BMD. Using the program MapMaker/Sibs there was suggestive evidence of linkage between BMD and PTHR1 (maximum LOD score obtained [MLS] 2.7-3.5). Moderate evidence of linkage was also observed with EGF (MLS 1.8), COLIA1 (MLS 1.7), COLIIA1/VDR (MLS 1.7), ESR1 (MLS 1.4), IL-1α (MLS 1.4), IL-4 (MLS 1.2), and IL-6 (MLS 1.2). Variance components analysis using the program ACT, correcting for proband-wise ascertainment, also showed evidence of linkage (p ≤0.05) at markers close to or within the candidate genes IL- 1α, PTHR1, IL-6, and COLIIA1/VDR. Further studies will be required to confirm these findings, to refine the location of gene responsible for the observed linkage, and to screen the candidate genes targeted at these loci for mutations.

Legal duties following the discharge of mental health patients

In the recent decision of Hunter and New England Local Health District v McKenna; Hunter and New England Local Health District v Simon, the High Court of Australia held that a hospital and its medical staff owed no common law duty of care to third parties claiming for mental harm, against the background of statutory powers to detain mentally ill patients. This conclusion was based in part on the statutory framework and in part on the inconsistency which would arise if such a duty was imposed. If such a duty was imposed in these circumstances, the consequence may be that doctors would generally detain rather than discharge mentally ill persons to avoid the foreseeable risk of harm to others. Such an approach would be inconsistent with the policy of the mental health legislation , which favours personal liberty and discharge rather than detention unless no other care of a less restrictive kind is appropriate and reasonably available.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Thermal conductivity of a new carbon nanotube analog: The diamond nanothread

Based on the non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we have studied the thermal conductivities of a novel ultra-thin one-dimensional carbon nanomaterial - diamond nanothread (DNT). Unlike single-wall carbon nanotube (CNT), the existence of the Stone-Wales transformations in DNT endows it with richer thermal transport characteristics. There is a transition from wave-dominated to particle-dominated transport region, which depends on the length of poly-benzene rings. However, independent of the transport region, strong length dependence in thermal conductivity is observed in DNTs with different lengths of poly-benzene ring. The distinctive SW characteristic in DNT provides more degrees of freedom to tune the thermal conductivity not found in the homogeneous structure of CNT. Therefore, DNT is an ideal platform to investigate various thermal transport mechanisms at the nanoscale. Its high tunability raises the potential to design DNTs for different applications, such as thermal connection and temperature management.

Kinetic analysis of nitroxide radical coupling reactions mediated by CuBr

In a previous paper, we described the room temperature rapid, selective, reversible, and near quantitative Cu-activated nitroxide radical coupling (NRC) technique to prepare 3-arm polystyrene stars. In this work, we evaluated the Cu-activation mechanism, either conventional atom transfer or single electron transfer (SET), through kinetic simulations. Simulation data showed that one can describe the system by either activation mechanism. We also found through simulations that bimolecular radical termination, regardless of activation mechanism, was extremely low and could be considered negligible in an NRC reaction. Experiments were carried out to form 2- and 3-arm PSTY stars using two ligands, PMDETA and Me6TREN, in a range of solvent conditions by varying the ratio of DMSO to toluene, and over a wide temperature range. The rate of 2- or 3-arm star formation was governed by the choice of solvent and ligand. The combination of Me6TREN and toluene/DMSO showed a relatively temperature independent rate, and remarkably reached near quantitative yields for 2-arm star formation after only 1 min at 25 °C.

Ultrafast and reversible multiblock formation by the SET-Nitroxide radical coupling reaction

The single electron transfer-nitroxide radical coupling (SET-NRC) reaction has been used to produce multiblock polymers with high molecular weights in under 3 min at 50◦C by coupling a difunctional telechelic polystyrene (Br-PSTY-Br)with a dinitroxide. The well known combination of dimethyl sulfoxide as solvent and Me6TREN as ligand facilitated the in situ disproportionation of CuIBr to the highly active nascent Cu0 species. This SET reaction allowed polymeric radicals to be rapidly formed from their corresponding halide end-groups. Trapping of these carbon-centred radicals at close to diffusion controlled rates by dinitroxides resulted in high-molecular-weight multiblock polymers. Our results showed that the disproportionation of CuI was critical in obtaining these ultrafast reactions, and confirmed that activation was primarily through Cu0. We took advantage of the reversibility of the NRC reaction at elevated temperatures to decouple the multiblock back to the original PSTY building block through capping the chain-ends with mono-functional nitroxides. These alkoxyamine end-groups were further exchanged with an alkyne mono-functional nitroxide (TEMPO–≡) and ‘clicked’ by a CuI-catalyzed azide/alkyne cycloaddition (CuAAC) reaction with N3–PSTY–N3 to reform the multiblocks. This final ‘click’ reaction, even after the consecutive decoupling and nitroxide-exchange reactions, still produced high molecular-weight multiblocks efficiently. These SET-NRC reactions would have ideal applications in re-usable plastics and possibly as self-healing materials.

Rapid, selective, and reversible Nitroxide Radical Coupling (NRC) reactions at amibient temperature

High activation of polystyrene with bromine end groups (PSTY-Br) to their incipient radicals occurred in the presence of Cu(I)Br, Me6TREN, and DMSO solvent. These radicals were then trapped by nitroxide species leading to coupling reactions between PSTY-Br and nitroxides that were ultrafast and selective in the presence of a diverse range of functional groups. The nitroxide radical coupling (NRC) reactions have the attributes of a “click” reaction with near quantitative yields of product formed, but through the reversibility of this reaction, it has the added advantage of permitting the exchange of chemical functionality on macromolecules. Conditions were chosen to facilitate the disproportionation of Cu(I)Br to the highly activating nascent Cu(0) and deactivating Cu(II)Br2 in the presence of DMSO solvent and Me6TREN ligand. NRC at room temperature gave near quantitative yields of macromolecular coupling of low molecular weight polystyrene with bromine chain-ends (PSTY-Br) and nitroxides in under 7 min even in the presence of functional groups (e.g., −≡, −OH, −COOH, −NH2, =O). Utilization of the reversibility of the NRC reaction at elevated temperatures allowed the exchange of chain-end groups with a variety of functional nitroxide derivatives. The robustness and orthogonality of this NRC reaction were further demonstrated using the Cu-catalyzed azide/alkyne “click” (CuAAC) reactions, in which yields greater than 95% were observed for coupling between PSTY-N3 and a PSTY chain first trapped with an alkyne functional TEMPO (PSTY-TEMPO-≡).

"We don't tell people what to do": An ethnography of health promotion with Indigenous Australians in South East Queensland

This thesis contributes to the decolonisation of health promotion by examining Indigenous-led health promotion practice in an urban setting. Using critical ethnography, the study revealed dialogical, identity-based approaches that centred relationship, community control and choice. Based on the findings, the thesis proposes four interrelated principles for decolonising health promotion and argues that Indigenous-led health promotion presents a way to bridge the rhetoric and practice of empowerment in Australian mainstream health promotion practice.

“We don’t tell people what to do”: Ethical practice and Indigenous health promotion

Health promotion aspires to work in empowering, participatory ways, with the goal of supporting people to increase control over their health. However, buried in this goal is an ethical tension: while increasing people’s autonomy, health promotion also imposes a particular, health promotion-sanctioned version of what is good. This tension positions practitioners precariously, where the ethos of empowerment risks increasing health promotion’s paternalistic control over people, rather than people’s control over their own health. Here in we argue that this ethical tension is amplified in Indigenous Australia, where colonial processes of control over Indigenous lands, lives and cultures are indistinguishable from contemporary health promotion ‘interventions’. Moreover, the potential stigmatisation produced in any paternalistic acts ‘done for their own good’ cannot be assumed to have evaporated within the self-proclaimed ‘empowering’ narratives of health promotion. This issue’s guest editor’s call for health promotion to engage ‘with politics and with philosophical ideas about the state and the citizen’ is particularly relevant in an Indigenous Australian context. Indigenous Australians continue to experience health promotion as a moral project of control through intervention, which contradicts health promotion’s central goal of empowerment. Therefore, Indigenous health promotion is an invaluable site for discussion and analysis of health promotion’s broader ethical tensions. Given the persistent and alarming Indigenous health inequalities, this paper calls for systematic ethical reflection in order to redress health promotion’s general failure to reduce health inequalities experienced by Indigenous Australians.

Graphene with patterned fluorination: Morphology modulation and implications

Recent years have witnessed a large volume of works on the modification of graphene; however, an understanding of the associated morphology or mechanical properties changes is still lacking, which is vital for its engineering implementation. By taking the C4F fluorination as an example, we find that the morphology of both graphene sheet (GS) and graphene nanoribbon (GNR) can be effectively tailored by fluorination patterning via molecular dynamics simulations. The fluorine atom produces out-of-plane forces which trigger several intriguing morphology changes to monolayer graphene, including zigzag, folded, ruffle, nanoscroll, and chain structures. Notably, for multilayer GNR, the delamination and climbing phenomena of the surface layer are observed. Further studies show that the fluorination pattern can also be utilized to modulate the mechanical properties of graphene, e.g., about 40% increase of the effective yield strain is observed for the examined GNR with fluorination patterns. This study not only demonstrates the significant impacts on the morphology of graphene from fluorination but also suggests an effective avenue to tailor the morphology and thus mechanical properties of GS and GNR.

Genome-wide association study identifies novel genetic variants contributing to variation in blood metabolite levels

Metabolites are small molecules involved in cellular metabolism, which can be detected in biological samples using metabolomic techniques. Here we present the results of genome-wide association and meta-analyses for variation in the blood serum levels of 129 metabolites as measured by the Biocrates metabolomic platform. In a discovery sample of 7,478 individuals of European descent, we find 4,068 genome- and metabolome-wide significant (Z-test, P<1.09 × 10−9) associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and metabolites, involving 59 independent SNPs and 85 metabolites. Five of the fifty-nine independent SNPs are new for serum metabolite levels, and were followed-up for replication in an independent sample (N=1,182). The novel SNPs are located in or near genes encoding metabolite transporter proteins or enzymes (SLC22A16, ARG1, AGPS and ACSL1) that have demonstrated biomedical or pharmaceutical importance. The further characterization of genetic influences on metabolic phenotypes is important for progress in biological and medical research.

Political feminism: Activist art in Australia in 2015

Brisbane-based artist and Founding Co-Director of LEVEL artist run initiative Courtney Coombs discusses feminist activist art practice in Australia. Recent discussions both in the art world and beyond have increased the profile and demystified the notion of feminism in the twenty-first century, and the term has once again become integrated into mainstream discussion internationally and in Australia. Now that pop music star Taylor Swift has declared herself a feminist, you could be persuaded that the 'f' word has finally become socially acceptable. However, while many artists have adopted the feminist label across the country, it often feels like feminism has become a lifestyle choice rather than a political one. When the badge is so readily worn by many, society can be fooled into thinking that there is no more work to be done. With the 'f' word once again acceptable while the 'p' word (patriarchy) remains so pass , how are artists responding to the changed conditions but continued imposition of what bell hooks has described as the 'imperialist white supremacist capitalist patriarchy'?

Impact of malnutrition on 12-month mortality following acute hip fracture

Background Studies investigating the relationship between malnutrition and post-discharge mortality following acute hip fracture yield conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether malnutrition independently predicted 12-month post-fracture mortality after adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. Methods An ethics approved, prospective, consecutive audit was undertaken for all surgically treated hip fracture inpatients admitted to a dedicated orthogeriatric unit (November 2010–October 2011). The 12-month mortality data were obtained by a dual search of the mortality registry and Queensland Health database. Malnutrition was evaluated using the Subjective Global Assessment. Demographic (age, gender, admission residence) and clinical covariates included fracture type, time to surgery, anaesthesia type, type of surgery, post-surgery time to mobilize and post-operative complications (delirium, pulmonary and deep vein thrombosis, cardiac complications, infections). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was retrospectively applied. All diagnoses were confirmed by the treating orthogeriatrician. Results A total of 322 of 346 patients were available for audit. Increased age (P = 0.004), admission from residential care (P < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (P = 0.007), malnutrition (P < 0.001), time to mobilize >48 h (P < 0.001), delirium (P = 0.003), pulmonary embolism (P = 0.029) and cardiovascular complication (P = 0.04) were associated with 12-month mortality. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that malnutrition (odds ratio (OR) 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–4.7, P = 0.007)), in addition to admission from residential care (OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.3–5.3, P = 0.005)) and pulmonary embolism (OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.5–78.7, P = 0.017)), independently predicted 12-month mortality. Conclusions Findings substantiate malnutrition as an independent predictor of 12-month mortality in a representative sample of hip fracture inpatients. Effective strategies to identify and treat malnutrition in hip fracture should be prioritized.