Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

The Learning Component of Dynamic Allocation Indices

For a multiarmed bandit problem with exponential discounting the optimal allocation rule is defined by a dynamic allocation index defined for each arm on its space. The index for an arm is equal to the expected immediate reward from the arm, with an upward adjustment reflecting any uncertainty about the prospects of obtaining rewards from the arm, and the possibilities of resolving those uncertainties by selecting that arm. Thus the learning component of the index is defined to be the difference between the index and the expected immediate reward. For two arms with the same expected immediate reward the learning component should be larger for the arm for which the reward rate is more uncertain. This is shown to be true for arms based on independent samples from a fixed distribution with an unknown parameter in the cases of Bernoulli and normal distributions, and similar results are obtained in other cases.

The introduction of an Inter-professional learning unit: staff and student perspectives

Background The School of Clinical Sciences comprises a number of health disciplines including podiatry, paramedic science, pharmacy, medical imaging and radiation therapy. A new inter-professional unit was introduced in 2014, which covered key introductory learnings applicable for future health practitioners. This study examined teaching staff and student perspectives about their experience with the new unit for first year students. Methods Qualitative interviews with teaching staff (n=9) and focus group interviews with students (5 groups which ranged in size from 4-30) were conducted. Extensive notes were taken during the interviews Issues emerging from the interviews were identified and organised according to themes and subthemes. Results Four major themes were identified namely: Something new; To be or not to be that is the question; Advantages of the new unit; and Areas for improvement. Previous staff experience with inter-professional learning (IPL) had been ad-hoc, whereas the new unit brought together several disciplines in a planned and deliberate way. There was strong philosophical agreement about the value of IPL but some debate about the extent to which the unit provided IPL experience. The unit was seen as assisting students’ social and academic adjustment to university and provided opportunity for professional socialisation, exposure to macro and micro aspects of the Australian health care system and various types of communication. For podiatry students it was their first opportunity to formally meet and work with other podiatry students and moved their identity from ‘university student’ to ‘podiatry student’. Other positives included providing the opportunity for staff and students to interact at an early stage with the perceived benefit of reducing attrition. Areas for unit improvement included institutional arrangements, unit administration aspects and assessment. Conclusion The unit was seen as beneficial by staff and students however, students were more polarised in their views than staff. There was a tension between feeling apart of and learning about one's own profession and feeling apart of and learning about the roles of other health professionals in relation to patient care and the health care system.

Validation of a 4DOF manoeuvring model of a high-speed vehicle-passenger trimaran

This paper presents the validation of a manoeuvring model for a novel 127m-vehicle-passenger trimaran via full scale trials. The adopted structure of the model is based on a model previously proposed in the literature with some simplifications. The structure of the model is discussed. Then initial parameter estimates are computed, and the final set of parameters are obtained via adjustments based on engineering judgement and application of a genetic algorithm so as to match the data of the trials. The validity of the model is also assessed with data from a trial different from the one use for the parameter adjustment. The model shows good agreement with the trial data.

Disability Standards for Education

This chapter of Higher Education and the Law considers the scope of the obligation of Australian Universities to make reasonable adjustments to facilities, procedures and curriculum, for students with disability. It reflects upon relevant case law to inform analysis of problematic aspects of that scope including, for example, the accommodation of students with problem behaviour flowing from disability and adjustment to assessment for students with disability.

China, film coproduction and soft power competition

This thesis investigates China's film internationalism and coproduction strategy based on three cases: Hong Kong and China film coproduction; US and China without any state-level agreements; Australia and China based on an official coproduction treaty. It investigates the evolution of coproduction in the film industry, the process of coproduction, foreign film companies' strategies of adjustment to state policies, and the culture and complexities that hinder coproduction. It surveys the current environment for China film coproduction and investigates the degree to which film coproduction has been - to this stage - a contributor to China's global cultural presence – its soft power.

Violence against the adolescents of Kolkata: A study in relation to the socio-economic background and mental health

This study attempts to understand the nature of violence suffered by the adolescents of Kolkata (erstwhile Calcutta) and to identify its relation with their socio-economic background and mental health variables such as anxiety, adjustment, and self-concept. It is a cross-sectional study covering a total of 370 adolescents (182 boys and 188 girls) from six higher secondary schools in Kolkata. The data was gathered by way of a semi-structured questionnaire and three standard psychological tests. Findings revealed that 52.4%, 25.1%, and 12.7% adolescents suffered psychological, physical, and sexual violence in the last year. Older adolescents (aged 17–18 years) suffered more psychological violence than the younger ones (15–16 years) (p < 0.05). Sixty nine (18.6%) adolescent students stood witness to violence between adult members in the family. More than three-fifth (61.9%) adolescents experienced at least one type of violence, while one-third (32.7%) experienced physical or sexual violence or both. Whatever its nature is, violence leaves a scar on the mental health of the victims. Those who have been through regular psychological violence reported high anxiety, emotional adjustment problem, and low self-concept. Sexual abuse left a damaging effect on self-concept (p < 0.05), while psychological violence or the witnessing of violence prompted high anxiety scores (p < 0.05), poor emotional adjustment (p < 0.05), and low self-concept (p < 0.05). This study stresses the need to provide individual counselling services to the maltreated adolescents of Kolkata so that their psychological traumas can heal and that they can move on in life with new hopes and dreams.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Differences in parent regulation beliefs and maternal postnatal depressive symptoms in early weeks

Postnatal depression is consistently associated with couple relationship qualities. Substantial infant care requirements in early weeks may highlight differences in parenting beliefs between mother and father. We calculated difference scores in parenting beliefs (disparity) in a community sample of 209 parent dyads. Contrary to previous research regarding ‘disagreement’ which could be interpreted as discord, independently measured disparity was not associated with maternal depressive symptoms. Coparenting interventions should promote respectful negotiation rather than resolution of differences.

Information sharing in distance collaboration: A software engineering perspective

Information sharing in distance collaboration: A software engineering perspective, QueenslandFactors in software engineering workgroups such as geographical dispersion and background discipline can be conceptually characterized as "distances", and they are obstructive to team collaboration and information sharing. This thesis focuses on information sharing across multidimensional distances and develops an information sharing distance model, with six core dimensions: geography, time zone, organization, multi-discipline, heterogeneous roles, and varying project tenure. The research suggests that the effectiveness of workgroups may be improved through mindful conducts of information sharing, especially proactive consideration of, and explicit adjustment for, the distances of the recipient when sharing information.

Sitting-time and 9-year all-cause mortality in older women

Background Studies of mid-aged adults provide evidence of a relationship between sitting-time and all-cause mortality, but evidence in older adults is limited. The aim is to examine the relationship between total sitting-time and all-cause mortality in older women. Methods The prospective cohort design involved 6656 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were followed for up to 9 years (2002, age 76–81, to 2011, age 85–90). Self-reported total sitting-time was linked to all-cause mortality data from the National Death Index from 2002 to 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the relationship between sitting-time and all-cause mortality, with adjustment for potential sociodemographic, behavioural and health confounders. Results There were 2003 (30.1%) deaths during a median follow-up of 6 years. Compared with participants who sat <4 h/day, those who sat 8–11 h/day had a 1.45 times higher risk of death and those who sat ≥11 h/day had a 1.65 times higher risk of death. These risks remained after adding sociodemographic and behavioural covariates, but were attenuated after adjustment for health covariates. A significant interaction (p=0.02) was found between sitting-time and physical activity (PA), with increased mortality risk for prolonged sitting only among participants not meeting PA guidelines (HR for sitting ≥8 h/day: 1.31, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.61); HR for sitting ≥11 h/day: 1.47, CI 1.15 to 1.93). Conclusions Prolonged sitting-time was positively associated with all-cause mortality. Women who reported sitting for more than 8 h/day and did not meet PA guidelines had an increased risk of dying within the next 9 years.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Reactions to changes in work control: Implications for self-determined and non-self-determined individuals

We investigate the extent to which individuals’ global motivation (self-determined and non-self-determined types) influences adjustment (anxiety, positive reappraisal) and engagement (intrinsic motivation, task performance) in reaction to changes to the level of work control available during a work simulation. Participants (N = 156) completed 2 trials of an inbox activity under conditions of low or high work control—with the ordering of these levels varied to create an increase, decrease, or no change in work control. In support of the hypotheses, results revealed that for more self-determined individuals, high work control led to the increased use of positive reappraisal. Follow-up moderated mediation analyses revealed that the increases in positive reappraisal observed for self-determined individuals in the conditions in which work control was high by Trial 2 consequently increased their intrinsic motivation toward the task. For more non-self-determined individuals, high work control (as well as changes in work control) led to elevated anxiety. Follow-up moderated mediation analyses revealed that the increases in anxiety observed for non-self-determined individuals in the high-to-high work control condition consequently reduced their task performance. It is concluded that adjustment to a demanding work task depends on a fit between individuals’ global motivation and the work control available, which has consequences for engagement with demanding work.

Analysis of body composition in individuals with high bone mass reveals a marked increase in fat mass in women but not men

Context: High bone mass (HBM), detected in 0.2% of dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, is characterized by raised body mass index, the basis for which is unclear. Objective: To investigate why body mass index is elevated in individuals with HBM, we characterized body composition and examined whether differences could be explained by bone phenotypes, eg, bone mass and/or bone turnover. Design, Setting, and Participants: We conducted a case-control study of 153 cases with unexplained HBM recruited from 4 UK centers by screening 219 088 DXA scans. Atotal of 138 first-degree relatives (of whom 51 had HBM) and 39 spouses were also recruited. Unaffected individuals served as controls. Main Outcome Measures: We measured fat mass, by DXA, and bone turnover markers. Results: Amongwomen, fat mass was inversely related to age in controls (P<.01), but not in HBM cases (P<.96) in whom mean fat mass was 8.9 [95% CI 4.7, 13.0] kg higher compared with controls (fully adjusted mean difference, P<.001). Increased fat mass in male HBM cases was less marked (gender interaction P = .03). Compared with controls, lean mass was also increased in female HBM cases (by 3.3 [1.2, 5.4] kg; P<.002); however, lean mass increases wereless marked than fat mass increases, resulting in 4.5% lower percentage lean mass in HBM cases (P<.001). Osteocalcin was also lower in female HBM cases compared with controls (by 2.8 [0.1, 5.5]μg/L; P = .04). Differences in fat mass were fully attenuated after hip bone mineral density (BMD) adjustment (P = .52) but unchanged after adjustment for bone turnover (P < .001), whereas the greater hip BMD in female HBM cases was minimally attenuated by fat mass adjustment (P<.001). Conclusions: HBM is characterized by a marked increase in fat mass in females, statistically explained by their greater BMD, but not by markers of bone turnover. Copyright © 2013 by The Endocrine Society.

Elevated circulating sclerostin concentrations in individuals with high bone mass, with and without LRP5 mutations

CONTEXT: The role and importance of circulating sclerostin is poorly understood. High bone mass (HBM) caused by activating LRP5 mutations has been reported to be associated with increased plasma sclerostin concentrations; whether the same applies to HBM due to other causes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine circulating sclerostin concentrations in HBM. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: In this case-control study, 406 HBM index cases were identified by screening dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) databases from 4 United Kingdom centers (n = 219 088), excluding significant osteoarthritis/artifact. Controls comprised unaffected relatives and spouses. MAIN MEASURES: Plasma sclerostin; lumbar spine L1, total hip, and total body DXA; and radial and tibial peripheral quantitative computed tomography (subgroup only) were evaluated. RESULTS: Sclerostin concentrations were significantly higher in both LRP5 HBM and non-LRP5 HBM cases compared with controls: mean (SD) 130.1 (61.7) and 88.0 (39.3) vs 66.4 (32.3) pmol/L (both P < .001, which persisted after adjustment for a priori confounders). In combined adjusted analyses of cases and controls, sclerostin concentrations were positively related to all bone parameters found to be increased in HBM cases (ie, L1, total hip, and total body DXA bone mineral density and radial/tibial cortical area, cortical bone mineral density, and trabecular density). Although these relationships were broadly equivalent in HBM cases and controls, there was some evidence that associations between sclerostin and trabecular phenotypes were stronger in HBM cases, particularly for radial trabecular density (interaction P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating plasma sclerostin concentrations are increased in both LRP5 and non-LRP5 HBM compared with controls. In addition to the general positive relationship between sclerostin and DXA/peripheral quantitative computed tomography parameters, genetic factors predisposing to HBM may contribute to increased sclerostin levels.