Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

Breastmilk-saliva interactions boost innate immunity by regulating the oral microbiome in early infancy

Introduction Xanthine oxidase (XO) is distributed in mammals largely in the liver and small intestine, but also is highly active in milk where it generates hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). Adult human saliva is low in hypoxanthine and xanthine, the substrates of XO, and high in the lactoperoxidase substrate thiocyanate, but saliva of neonates has not been examined. Results Median concentrations of hypoxanthine and xanthine in neonatal saliva (27 and 19 μM respectively) were ten-fold higher than in adult saliva (2.1 and 1.7 μM). Fresh breastmilk contained 27.3±12.2 μM H2O2 but mixing baby saliva with breastmilk additionally generated >40 μM H2O2, sufficient to inhibit growth of the opportunistic pathogens Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella spp. Oral peroxidase activity in neonatal saliva was variable but low (median 7 U/L, range 2–449) compared to adults (620 U/L, 48–1348), while peroxidase substrate thiocyanate in neonatal saliva was surprisingly high. Baby but not adult saliva also contained nucleosides and nucleobases that encouraged growth of the commensal bacteria Lactobacillus, but inhibited opportunistic pathogens; these nucleosides/bases may also promote growth of immature gut cells. Transition from neonatal to adult saliva pattern occurred during the weaning period. A survey of saliva from domesticated mammals revealed wide variation in nucleoside/base patterns. Discussion and Conclusion During breast-feeding, baby saliva reacts with breastmilk to produce reactive oxygen species, while simultaneously providing growth-promoting nucleotide precursors. Milk thus plays more than a simply nutritional role in mammals, interacting with infant saliva to produce a potent combination of stimulatory and inhibitory metabolites that regulate early oral–and hence gut–microbiota. Consequently, milk-saliva mixing appears to represent unique biochemical synergism which boosts early innate immunity.

Evaluation of residence time on nitrogen oxides removal in non-thermal plasma reactor

Non-thermal plasma (NTP) has been introduced over the last few years as a promising after- treatment system for nitrogen oxides and particulate matter removal from diesel exhaust. NTP technology has not been commercialised as yet, due to its high rate of energy consumption. Therefore, it is important to seek out new methods to improve NTP performance. Residence time is a crucial parameter in engine exhaust emissions treatment. In this paper, different electrode shapes are analysed and the corresponding residence time and NOx removal efficiency are studied. An axisymmetric laminar model is used for obtaining residence time distribution numerically using FLUENT software. If the mean residence time in a NTP plasma reactor increases, there will be a corresponding increase in the reaction time and consequently the pollutant removal efficiency increases. Three different screw thread electrodes and a rod electrode are examined. The results show the advantage of screw thread electrodes in comparison with the rod electrode. Furthermore, between the screw thread electrodes, the electrode with the thread width of 1 mm has the highest NOx removal due to higher residence time and a greater number of micro-discharges. The results show that the residence time of the screw thread electrode with a thread width of 1 mm is 21% more than for the rod electrode.

Muscular activity and fatigue in lower-limb and trunk muscles during different sit-to-stand tests

Sit-to-stand (STS) tests measure the ability to get up from a chair, reproducing an important component of daily living activity. As this functional task is essential for human independence, STS performance has been studied in the past decades using several methods, including electromyography. The aim of this study was to measure muscular activity and fatigue during different repetitions and speeds of STS tasks using surface electromyography in lower-limb and trunk muscles. This cross-sectional study recruited 30 healthy young adults. Average muscle activation, percentage of maximum voluntary contraction, muscle involvement in motion and fatigue were measured using surface electrodes placed on the medial gastrocnemius (MG), biceps femoris (BF), vastus medialis of the quadriceps (QM), the abdominal rectus (AR), erector spinae (ES), rectus femoris (RF), soleus (SO) and the tibialis anterior (TA). Five-repetition STS, 10-repetition STS and 30-second STS variants were performed. MG, BF, QM, ES and RF muscles showed differences in muscle activation, while QM, AR and ES muscles showed significant differences in MVC percentage. Also, significant differences in fatigue were found in QM muscle between different STS tests. There was no statistically significant fatigue in the BF, MG and SO muscles of the leg although there appeared to be a trend of increasing fatigue. These results could be useful in describing the functional movements of the STS test used in rehabilitation programs, notwithstanding that they were measured in healthy young subjects.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Packed bed bioreactor for the isolation and expansion of placental-derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells

Large numbers of Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) are required for clinical relevant doses to treat a number of diseases. To economically manufacture these MSCs, an automated bioreactor system will be required. Herein we describe the development of a scalable closed-system, packed bed bioreactor suitable for large-scale MSCs expansion. The packed bed was formed from fused polystyrene pellets that were air plasma treated to endow them with a surface chemistry similar to traditional tissue culture plastic. The packed bed was encased within a gas permeable shell to decouple the medium nutrient supply and gas exchange. This enabled a significant reduction in medium flow rates, thus reducing shear and even facilitating single pass medium exchange. The system was optimised in a small-scale bioreactor format (160 cm2) with murine-derived green fluorescent protein-expressing MSCs, and then scaled-up to a 2800 cm2 format. We demonstrated that placental derived MSCs could be isolated directly within the bioreactor and subsequently expanded. Our results demonstrate that the closed system large-scale packed bed bioreactor is an effective and scalable tool for large-scale isolation and expansion of MSCs.

Effects of increasing neuromuscular electrical stimulation current intensity on cortical sensorimotor network activation: A time domain fNIRS study

Neuroimaging studies have shown neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES)-evoked movements activate regions of the cortical sensorimotor network, including the primary sensorimotor cortex (SMC), premotor cortex (PMC), supplementary motor area (SMA), and secondary somatosensory area (S2), as well as regions of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) known to be involved in pain processing. The aim of this study, on nine healthy subjects, was to compare the cortical network activation profile and pain ratings during NMES of the right forearm wrist extensor muscles at increasing current intensities up to and slightly over the individual maximal tolerated intensity (MTI), and with reference to voluntary (VOL) wrist extension movements. By exploiting the capability of the multi-channel time domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy technique to relate depth information to the photon time-of-flight, the cortical and superficial oxygenated (O₂Hb) and deoxygenated (HHb) hemoglobin concentrations were estimated. The O₂Hb and HHb maps obtained using the General Linear Model (NIRS-SPM) analysis method, showed that the VOL and NMES-evoked movements significantly increased activation (i.e., increase in O₂Hb and corresponding decrease in HHb) in the cortical layer of the contralateral sensorimotor network (SMC, PMC/SMA, and S2). However, the level and area of contralateral sensorimotor network (including PFC) activation was significantly greater for NMES than VOL. Furthermore, there was greater bilateral sensorimotor network activation with the high NMES current intensities which corresponded with increased pain ratings. In conclusion, our findings suggest that greater bilateral sensorimotor network activation profile with high NMES current intensities could be in part attributable to increased attentional/pain processing and to increased bilateral sensorimotor integration in these cortical regions.

Exact solutions of coupled multispecies linear reaction–diffusion equations on a uniformly growing domain

Embryonic development involves diffusion and proliferation of cells, as well as diffusion and reaction of molecules, within growing tissues. Mathematical models of these processes often involve reaction–diffusion equations on growing domains that have been primarily studied using approximate numerical solutions. Recently, we have shown how to obtain an exact solution to a single, uncoupled, linear reaction–diffusion equation on a growing domain, 0 < x < L(t), where L(t) is the domain length. The present work is an extension of our previous study, and we illustrate how to solve a system of coupled reaction–diffusion equations on a growing domain. This system of equations can be used to study the spatial and temporal distributions of different generations of cells within a population that diffuses and proliferates within a growing tissue. The exact solution is obtained by applying an uncoupling transformation, and the uncoupled equations are solved separately before applying the inverse uncoupling transformation to give the coupled solution. We present several example calculations to illustrate different types of behaviour. The first example calculation corresponds to a situation where the initially–confined population diffuses sufficiently slowly that it is unable to reach the moving boundary at x = L(t). In contrast, the second example calculation corresponds to a situation where the initially–confined population is able to overcome the domain growth and reach the moving boundary at x = L(t). In its basic format, the uncoupling transformation at first appears to be restricted to deal only with the case where each generation of cells has a distinct proliferation rate. However, we also demonstrate how the uncoupling transformation can be used when each generation has the same proliferation rate by evaluating the exact solutions as an appropriate limit.

Exact solutions of linear reaction-diffusion on a uniformly growing domain: criteria for successful colonization

Many processes during embryonic development involve transport and reaction of molecules, or transport and proliferation of cells, within growing tissues. Mathematical models of such processes usually take the form of a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) on a growing domain. Previous analyses of such models have mainly involved solving the PDEs numerically. Here, we present a framework for calculating the exact solution of a linear reaction-diffusion PDE on a growing domain. We derive an exact solution for a general class of one-dimensional linear reaction—diffusion process on 0

The mechanisms of human renal epithelial cell modulation of autologous dendritic cell phenotype and function

Proximal tubule epithelial cells (PTEC) of the kidney line the proximal tubule downstream of the glomerulus and play a major role in the re-absorption of small molecular weight proteins that may pass through the glomerular filtration process. In the perturbed disease state PTEC also contribute to the inflammatory disease process via both positive and negative mechanisms via the production of inflammatory cytokines which chemo-attract leukocytes and the subsequent down-modulation of these cells to prevent uncontrolled inflammatory responses. It is well established that dendritic cells are responsible for the initiation and direction of adaptive immune responses. Both resident and infiltrating dendritic cells are localised within the tubulointerstitium of the renal cortex, in close apposition to PTEC, in inflammatory disease states. We previously demonstrated that inflammatory PTEC are able to modulate autologous human dendritic cell phenotype and functional responses. Here we extend these findings to characterise the mechanisms of this PTEC immune-modulation using primary human PTEC and autologous monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MoDC) as the model system. We demonstrate that PTEC express three inhibitory molecules: (i) cell surface PD-L1 that induces MoDC expression of PD-L1; (ii) intracellular IDO that maintains the expression of MoDC CD14, drives the expression of CD80, PD-L1 and IL-10 by MoDC and inhibits T cell stimulatory capacity; and (iii) soluble HLA-G (sHLA-G) that inhibits HLA-DR and induces IL-10 expression by MoDC. Collectively the results demonstrate that primary human PTEC are able to modulate autologous DC phenotype and function via multiple complex pathways. Further dissection of these pathways is essential to target therapeutic strategies in the treatment of inflammatory kidney disorders.

Human bladder uroepithelial cells synergize with monocytes to promote IL-10 synthesis and other cytokine responses to Uropathogenic Escherichia coli

Urinary tract infections are a major source of morbidity for women and the elderly, with Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) being the most prevalent causative pathogen. Studies in recent years have defined a key anti-inflammatory role for Interleukin-10 (IL-10) in urinary tract infection mediated by UPEC and other uropathogens. We investigated the nature of the IL-10-producing interactions between UPEC and host cells by utilising a novel co-culture model that incorporated lymphocytes, mononuclear and uroepithelial cells in histotypic proportions. This co-culture model demonstrated synergistic IL-10 production effects between monocytes and uroepithelial cells following infection with UPEC. Membrane inserts were used to separate the monocyte and uroepithelial cell types during infection and revealed two synergistic IL-10 production effects based on contact-dependent and soluble interactions. Analysis of a comprehensive set of immunologically relevant biomarkers in monocyte-uroepithelial cell co-cultures highlighted that multiple cytokine, chemokine and signalling factors were also produced in a synergistic or antagonistic fashion. These results demonstrate that IL-10 responses to UPEC occur via multiple interactions between several cells types, implying a complex role for infection-related IL-10 during UTI. Development and application of the co-culture model described in this study is thus useful to define the degree of contact dependency of biomarker production to UPEC, and highlights the relevance of histotypic co-cultures in studying complex host-pathogen interactions.

Educational attainment: A genome wide association study in 9538 Australians

BACKGROUND Correlations between Educational Attainment (EA) and measures of cognitive performance are as high as 0.8. This makes EA an attractive alternative phenotype for studies wishing to map genes affecting cognition due to the ease of collecting EA data compared to other cognitive phenotypes such as IQ. METHODOLOGY In an Australian family sample of 9538 individuals we performed a genome-wide association scan (GWAS) using the imputed genotypes of approximately 2.4 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) for a 6-point scale measure of EA. Top hits were checked for replication in an independent sample of 968 individuals. A gene-based test of association was then applied to the GWAS results. Additionally we performed prediction analyses using the GWAS results from our discovery sample to assess the percentage of EA and full scale IQ variance explained by the predicted scores. RESULTS The best SNP fell short of having a genome-wide significant p-value (p = 9.77x10(-7)). In our independent replication sample six SNPs among the top 50 hits pruned for linkage disequilibrium (r(2)<0.8) had a p-value<0.05 but only one of these SNPs survived correction for multiple testing--rs7106258 (p = 9.7*10(-4)) located in an intergenic region of chromosome 11q14.1. The gene based test results were non-significant and our prediction analyses show that the predicted scores explained little variance in EA in our replication sample. CONCLUSION While we have identified a polymorphism chromosome 11q14.1 associated with EA, further replication is warranted. Overall, the absence of genome-wide significant p-values in our large discovery sample confirmed the high polygenic architecture of EA. Only the assembly of large samples or meta-analytic efforts will be able to assess the implication of common DNA polymorphisms in the etiology of EA.

Human papillomavirus infection and vaccination: Awareness and knowledge of HPV and acceptability of HPV vaccine among mothers of teenage daughters in Weihai, Shandong, China

In preparation for the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, we investigated awareness and knowledge of HPV/HPV vaccine and potential acceptability to HPV vaccine among mothers with a teenage daughter in Weihai, Shandong, China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2013 with a sample of 1850 mothers who had a daughter (aged 9–17 years) attending primary, junior and senior high schools. In the final sample (N = 1578, response rate 85.30%), awareness of HPV was reported by 305 (19.32%) mothers. Awareness varied significantly by daughter’s age (P<0.01), mother’s education level (P<0.01), mother’s occupation (P<0.01), household income (P<0.01) and residence type (P<0.01). Knowledge about HPV/HPV vaccine was poor with a mean total score of 3.56 (SD = 2.40) out of a possible score of 13. Mothers with a higher education level reported higher levels of knowledge (P = 0.02). Slightly more than one-fourth (26.49%) of mothers expressed their potential acceptability of HPV vaccine for their daughters. Acceptability increased along with increased daughters’ age (P<0.01), household income (P<0.01) and knowledge level (P<0.01). House wives and unemployed mothers had the highest acceptability (P<0.01). The most common reasons for not accepting HPV vaccination were “My daughter is too young to have risk of cervical cancer (30.95%)”, “The vaccine has not been widely used, and the decision will be made after it is widely used (24.91%)”, “Worry about the safety of the vaccine (22.85%)”. Awareness and knowledge of HPV/HPV vaccines are poor and HPV vaccine acceptability is low among these Chinese mothers. These results may help inform appropriate health education programs in this population.

Corneal confocal microscopy detects neuropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes without retinopathy or microalbuminuria

Objective Corneal innervation is increasingly used as a surrogate marker of human diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) however its temporal relationship with the other microvascular complications of diabetes is not fully established. In this cross-sectional, observational study we aimed to assess whether neuropathy occurred in patients with type 1 diabetes, without retinopathy or microalbuminuria. Materials and Methods All participants underwent detailed assessment of peripheral neuropathy [neuropathy disability score (NDS), vibration perception threshold (VPT), peroneal motor nerve conduction velocity (PMNCV), sural sensory nerve conduction velocity (SSNCV) and in vivo corneal confocal microscopy (IVCCM)], retinopathy (digital fundus photography) and albuminuria status [albumin: creatinine ratio (ACR)]. Results 53 patients with Type 1 diabetes with (n=37) and without retinopathy (n=16) were compared to control subjects (n=27). SSNCV, corneal nerve fibre (CNFD) and branch (CNBD) density and length (CNFL) were reduced significantly (p<0.001) in diabetic patients without retinopathy compared to control subjects. Furthermore, CNFD, CNBD and CNFL were also significantly (p<0.001) reduced in diabetic patients without microalbuminuria (n=39), compared to control subjects. Greater neuropathic severity was associated with established retinopathy and microalbuminuria. Conclusions IVCCM detects early small fibre damage in the absence of retinopathy or microalbuminuria in patients with Type 1 diabetes.