Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

Traffic and nucleation events as main sources of ultrafine particles in high-insolation developed world cities

Road traffic emissions are often considered the main source of ultrafine particles (UFP, diameter smaller than 100 nm) in urban environments. However, recent studies worldwide have shown that - in high-insolation urban regions at least - new particle formation events can also contribute to UFP. In order to quantify such events we systematically studied three cities located in predominantly sunny environments: Barcelona (Spain), Madrid (Spain) and Brisbane (Australia). Three long term datasets (1-2 years) of fine and ultrafine particle number size distributions (measured by SMPS, Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer) were analysed. Compared to total particle number concentrations, aerosol size distributions offer far more information on the type, origin and atmospheric evolution of the particles. By applying k-Means clustering analysis, we categorized the collected aerosol size distributions in three main categories: “Traffic” (prevailing 44-63% of the time), “Nucleation” (14-19%) and “Background pollution and Specific cases” (7-22%). Measurements from Rome (Italy) and Los Angeles (California) were also included to complement the study. The daily variation of the average UFP concentrations for a typical nucleation day at each site revealed a similar pattern for all cities, with three distinct particle bursts. A morning and an evening spike reflected traffic rush hours, whereas a third one at midday showed nucleation events. The photochemically nucleated particles burst lasted 1-4 hours, reaching sizes of 30-40 nm. On average, the occurrence of particle size spectra dominated by nucleation events was 16% of the time, showing the importance of this process as a source of UFP in urban environments exposed to high solar radiation. On average, nucleation events lasting for 2 hours or more occurred on 55% of the days, this extending to >4hrs in 28% of the days, demonstrating that atmospheric conditions in urban environments are not favourable to the growth of photochemically nucleated particles. In summary, although traffic remains the main source of UFP in urban areas, in developed countries with high insolation urban nucleation events are also a main source of UFP. If traffic-related particle concentrations are reduced in the future, nucleation events will likely increase in urban areas, due to the reduced urban condensation sinks.

Traffic safety at road–rail level crossings using a driving simulator and traffic simulation

Several intelligent transportation systems (ITS) were used with an advanced driving simulator to assess its influence on driving behavior. Three types of ITS interventions were tested: video in vehicle, audio in vehicle, and on-road flashing marker. The results from the driving simulator were inputs for a developed model that used traffic microsimulation (VISSIM 5.4) to assess the safety interventions. Using a driving simulator, 58 participants were required to drive through active and passive crossings with and without an ITS device and in the presence or absence of an approaching train. The effect of changes in driver speed and compliance rate was greater at passive crossings than at active crossings. The slight difference in speed of drivers approaching ITS devices indicated that ITS helped drivers encounter crossings in a safer way. Since the traffic simulation was not able to replicate a dynamic speed change or a probability of stopping that varied depending on ITS safety devices, some modifications were made to the traffic simulation. The results showed that exposure to ITS devices at active crossings did not influence drivers’ behavior significantly according to the traffic performance indicator, such as delay time, number of stops, speed, and stopped delay. However, the results of traffic simulation for passive crossings, where low traffic volumes and low train headway normally occur, showed that ITS devices improved overall traffic performance.

Evaluate traffic noise level based on traffic microsimulation combined with a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sized trucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Building local capacity to reduce road traffic injury in rapidly motorising countries

Road safety is a significant public health issue - 1.24m killed each year, 20-50m injured, 91% in rapidly motorising low/mid income countries Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020: - National and local actions: “strengthening the management infrastructure and capacity for technical implementation of road safety activities at the national, regional and global levels” - Capacity as a constraint on a country’s action - Emphasis on knowledge/training – understand principles, promote training and education etc

Human health risk of toxic chemical pollutants generated from traffic and land use activities

The research project developed a quantitative approach to assess the risk to human health from heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater based on traffic and land use factors. The research outcomes are expected to strengthen the scientifically robust management and reuse of urban stormwater. The innovative methodology developed can be applied to evaluate human health risk in relation to toxic chemical pollutants in urban stormwater runoff and for the development of effective risk mitigation strategies.

A potent nonporphyrin class of photodynamic therapeutic agent: Cellular localisation, cytotoxic potential and influence of hypoxia

We have developed a totally new class of nonporphyrin photodynamic therapeutic agents with a specific focus on two lead candidates azadipyrromethene (ADPM)01 and ADPM06. Confocal laser scanning microscopy imaging showed that these compounds are exclusively localised to the cytosolic compartment, with specific accumulation in the endoplasmic reticulum and to a lesser extent in the mitochondria. Light-induced toxicity assays, carried out over a broad range of human tumour cell lines, displayed EC50 values in the micro-molar range for ADPM01 and nano-molar range for ADPM06, with no discernable activity bias for a specific cell type. Strikingly, the more active agent, ADPM06, even retained significant activity under hypoxic conditions. Both photosensitisers showed low to nondeterminable dark toxicity. Flow cytometric analysis revealed that ADPM01 and ADPM06 were highly effective at inducing apoptosis as a mode of cell death. The photophysical and biological characteristics of these PDT agents suggest that they have potential for the development of new anticancer therapeutics. © 2005 Cancer Research UK.

Downregulation of microRNA-498 in colorectal cancers and its cellular effects

miR-498 is a non-coding RNA located intergenically in 19q13.41. Due to its predicted targeting of several genes involved in control of cellular growth, we examined the expression of miR-498 in colon cancer cell lines and a large cohort of patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma. Two colon cancer cancer cell lines (SW480 and SW48) and one normal colonic epithelial cell line (FHC) were recruited. The expression of miR-498 was tested in these cell lines by using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Tissues from 80 patients with surgical resection of colorectum (60 adenocarcinomas and 20 non-neoplastic tissues) were tested for miR-498 expression by qRT-PCR. In addition, an exogenous miR-498 (mimic) was used to detect the miRNA׳s effects on cell proliferation and cell cycle events in SW480 using MTT calorimetric assay and flow cytometry respectively. The colon cancer cell lines showed reduced expression of miR-498 compared to a normal colonic epithelial cell line. Mimic driven over expression of miR-498 in the SW480 cell line resulted in reduced cell proliferation and increased proportions of G2-M phase cells. In tissues, miR-498 expression was too low to be detected in all colorectal adenocarcinoma compared to non-neoplastic tissues. This suggests that the down regulation of miR-498 in colorectal cancer tissues and the direct suppressive cellular effect noted in cancer cell lines implies that miR-498 has some direct or indirect role in the pathogenesis of colorectal adenocarcinomas.

Young driver perceptions of police traffic enforcement and self reported driving offences

Purpose Road policing is a key method used to improve driver compliance with road laws. However, we have a very limited understanding of the perceptions of young drivers regarding police enforcement of road laws. This paper addresses this gap. Design/Methodology/Approach Within this study 238 young drivers from Queensland, Australia, aged 17-24 years (M = 18, SD = 1.54), with a provisional (intermediate) driver’s licence completed an online survey regarding their perceptions of police enforcement and their driver thrill seeking tendencies. This study considered whether these factors influenced self-reported transient (e.g., travelling speed) and fixed (e.g., blood alcohol concentration) road violations by the young drivers. Findings The results indicate that being detected by police for a traffic offence, and the frequency with which they display P-plates on their vehicle to indicate their licence status, are associated with both self-reported transient and fixed rule violations. Licence type, police avoidance behaviours and driver thrill seeking affected transient rule violations only, while perceptions of police enforcement affected fixed rule violations only. Practical implications This study suggests that police enforcement of young driver violations of traffic laws may not be as effective as expected and that we need to improve the way in which police enforce road laws for young novice drivers. Originality/value: This paper identifies that perceptions of police enforcement by young drivers does not influence all types of road offences.

Predicting crashes using traffic offences. A meta-analysis that examines potential bias between self-report and archival data

Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.