Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Nonvolatile multilevel data storage memory device from controlled ambipolar charge trapping mechanism

The capability of storing multi-bit information is one of the most important challenges in memory technologies. An ambipolar polymer which intrinsically has the ability to transport electrons and holes as a semiconducting layer provides an opportunity for the charge trapping layer to trap both electrons and holes efficiently. Here, we achieved large memory window and distinct multilevel data storage by utilizing the phenomena of ambipolar charge trapping mechanism. As fabricated flexible memory devices display five well-defined data levels with good endurance and retention properties showing potential application in printed electronics.

An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

The choice of spatial scales and spatial smoothness priors for various spatial patterns

Given the drawbacks for using geo-political areas in mapping outcomes unrelated to geo-politics, a compromise is to aggregate and analyse data at the grid level. This has the advantage of allowing spatial smoothing and modelling at a biologically or physically relevant scale. This article addresses two consequent issues: the choice of the spatial smoothness prior and the scale of the grid. Firstly, we describe several spatial smoothness priors applicable for grid data and discuss the contexts in which these priors can be employed based on different aims. Two such aims are considered, i.e., to identify regions with clustering and to model spatial dependence in the data. Secondly, the choice of the grid size is shown to depend largely on the spatial patterns. We present a guide on the selection of spatial scales and smoothness priors for various point patterns based on the two aims for spatial smoothing.

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

Heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : spatial variation and area-level predictors

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of illness and death in many locations across the globe, including subtropical Australia. The possibility of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves warrants continued efforts to reduce this health burden, which could be accomplished by targeting intervention measures toward the most vulnerable communities. Objectives: We sought to quantify spatial variability in heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia, to highlight regions of the city with the greatest risk. We also aimed to find area-level social and environmental determinants of high risk within Brisbane. Methods: We used a series of hierarchical Bayesian models to examine city-wide and intracity associations between temperature and morbidity using a 2007–2011 time series of geographically referenced hospital admissions data. The models accounted for long-term time trends, seasonality, and day of week and holiday effects. Results: On average, a 10°C increase in daily maximum temperature during the summer was associated with a 7.2% increase in hospital admissions (95% CI: 4.7, 9.8%) on the following day. Positive statistically significant relationships between admissions and temperature were found for 16 of the city’s 158 areas; negative relationships were found for 5 areas. High-risk areas were associated with a lack of high income earners and higher population density. Conclusions: Geographically targeted public health strategies for extreme heat may be effective in Brisbane, because morbidity risk was found to be spatially variable. Emergency responders, health officials, and city planners could focus on short- and long-term intervention measures that reach communities in the city with lower incomes and higher population densities, including reduction of urban heat island effects.

In pursuit of an architecture realism

The noble idea of studying seminal works to ‘see what we can learn’ has turned in the 1990s into ‘let’s see what we can take’ and in the last decade a more toxic derivative ‘what else can’t we take’. That is my observation as a student of architecture in the 1990s, and as a practitioner in the 2000s. In 2010, the sense that something is ending is clear. The next generation is rising and their gaze has shifted. The idea of classification (as a means of separation) was previously rejected by a generation of Postmodernists; the usefulness of difference declined. It’s there in the presence of plurality in the resulting architecture, a decision to mine history and seize in a willful manner. This is a process of looking back but never forward. It has been a mono-culture of absorption. The mono-culture rejected the pursuit of the realistic. It is a blanket suffocating all practice of architecture in this country from the mercantile to the intellectual. Independent reviews of Australia’s recent contributions to the Venice Architecture Biennales confirm the malaise. The next generation is beginning to reconsider classification as a means of unification. By acknowledging the characteristics of competing forces it is possible to bring them into a state of tension. Seeking a beautiful contrast is a means to a new end. In the political setting, this is described by Noel Pearson as the radical centre[1]. The concept transcends the political and in its most essential form is a cultural phenomenon. It resists the compromised position and suggests that we can look back while looking forward. The radical centre is the only demonstrated opportunity where it is possible to pursue a realistic architecture. A realistic architecture in Australia may be partially resolved by addressing our anxiety of permanence. Farrelly’s built desires[2] and Markham’s ritual demonstrations[3] are two ways into understanding the broader spectrum of permanence. But I think they are downstream of our core problem. Our problem, as architects, is that we are yet to come to terms with this place. Some call it landscape others call it country. Australian cities were laid out on what was mistaken for a blank canvas. On some occasions there was the consideration of the landscape when it presented insurmountable physical obstacles. The architecture since has continued to work on its piece of a constantly blank canvas. Even more ironic is the commercial awards programs that represent a claim within this framework but at best can only establish a dialogue within itself. This is a closed system unable to look forward. It is said that Melbourne is the most European city in the southern hemisphere but what is really being described there is the limitation of a senseless grid. After all, if Dutch landscape informs Dutch architecture why can’t the Australian landscape inform Australian architecture? To do that, we would have to acknowledge our moribund grasp of the meaning of the Australian landscape. Or more precisely what Indigenes call Country[4]. This is a complex notion and there are different ways into it. Country is experienced and understood through the senses and seared into memory. If one begins design at that starting point it is not unreasonable to think we can arrive at an end point that is a counter trajectory to where we have taken ourselves. A recent studio with Masters students confirmed this. Start by finding Country and it would be impossible to end up with a building looking like an Aboriginal man’s face. To date architecture in Australia has overwhelmingly ignored Country on the back of terra nullius. It can’t seem to get past the picturesque. Why is it so hard? The art world came to terms with this challenge, so too did the legal establishment, even the political scene headed into new waters. It would be easy to blame the budgets of commerce or the constraints of program or even the pressure of success. But that is too easy. Those factors are in fact the kind of limitations that opportunities grow out of. The past decade of economic plenty has, for the most part, smothered the idea that our capitals might enable civic settings or an architecture that is able to looks past lot line boundaries in a dignified manner. The denied opportunities of these settings to be prompted by the Country they occupy is criminal. The public realm is arrested in its development because we refuse to accept Country as a spatial condition. What we seem to be able to embrace is literal and symbolic gestures usually taking the form of a trumped up art installations. All talk – no action. To continue to leave the public realm to the stewardship of mercantile interests is like embracing derivative lending after the global financial crisis.Herein rests an argument for why we need a resourced Government Architect’s office operating not as an isolated lobbyist for business but as a steward of the public realm for both the past and the future. New South Wales is the leading model with Queensland close behind. That is not to say both do not have flaws but current calls for their cessation on the grounds of design parity poorly mask commercial self interest. In Queensland, lobbyists are heavily regulated now with an aim to ensure integrity and accountability. In essence, what I am speaking of will not be found in Reconciliation Action Plans that double as business plans, or the mining of Aboriginal culture for the next marketing gimmick, or even discussions around how to make buildings more ‘Aboriginal’. It will come from the next generation who reject the noxious mono-culture of absorption and embrace a counter trajectory to pursue an architecture of realism.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Predicting transactive memory systems in multidisciplinary teams : The interplay between team and professional identities

In explaining how communication quality predicts TMS in multidisciplinary teams, we drew on the social identity approach to investigate the mediating role of team identification and the moderating role of professional identification. Recognizing that professional identification could trigger intergroup biases among professional subgroups, or alternatively, could bring resources to the team, we explored the potential moderating role of professional identification in the relationship between team identification and TMS. Using data collected from 882 healthcare personnel working in 126 multidisciplinary hospital teams, results supported our hypothesis that perceived communication quality predicted TMS through team identification. Furthermore, findings provided support for a resource view of professional subgroup identities with results indicating that high levels of professional identification compensated for low levels of team identification in predicting TMS. We provide recommendations on how social identities may be used to promote TMS in multidisciplinary teams.