A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

A theory of waste behaviour in the construction industry

Levels of waste within the construction industry need to be reduced for environmental and economic reasons. Changing people's wasteful behaviour can make a significant contribution. This paper describes a research project that used Ajzen's 'theory of planned behaviour' to investigate the attitudinal forces that shape behaviour at the operative level. It concludes that operatives see waste as an inevitable by-product of construction activity. Attitudes towards waste management are not negative, although they are pragmatic and impeded by perceptions of a lack of managerial commitment. Waste management is perceived as a low project priority, and there is an absence of appropriate resources and incentives to support it. A theory of waste behaviour is proposed for the construction industry, and recommendations are made to help managers improve operatives' attitudes towards waste.

Why evolutionary realism underpins evolutionary economic analysis and theory

This paper offers a reply to Jochen Runde's critical appraisal of the ontological framework underpinning Dopfer and Potts's (2008) General Theory of Economic Evolution. We argue that Runde's comprehensive critique contains several of what we perceive to be misunderstandings in relation to the key concepts of ‘generic’ and ‘meso’ that we seek here to unpack and redress.

An improved genetic algorithm and graph theory based method for optimal sectionalizer switch placement in distribution networks with DG

In this paper a new graph-theory and improved genetic algorithm based practical method is employed to solve the optimal sectionalizer switch placement problem. The proposed method determines the best locations of sectionalizer switching devices in distribution networks considering the effects of presence of distributed generation (DG) in fitness functions and other optimization constraints, providing the maximum number of costumers to be supplied by distributed generation sources in islanded distribution systems after possible faults. The proposed method is simulated and tested on several distribution test systems in both cases of with DG and non DG situations. The results of the simulations validate the proposed method for switch placement of the distribution network in the presence of distributed generation.

Business process management : theory on progression and maturity

Business Process Management (BPM) is a topic that continues to grow in significance as organisations seek to gain and sustain competitive advantage in an increasingly global environment. Despite anecdotal evidence of organisations improving performance by pursuing a BPM approach, there is little theory that explains and substantiates this relationship. This study provides the first theory on the progression and maturity of BPM Initiatives within organisations and provides a vital starting block upon which future research in this area can build. The Researcher starts by clearly defining three key terms (BPM Initiative, BPM Progression and BPM Maturity), showing the relationship between these three concepts and proposing their relationship with Organisational Performance. The Researcher then combines extant literature and use of the Delphi Technique and the case study method to explore the progression and measurement of the BPM Initiatives within organisations. The study builds upon the principles of general theories including the Punctuated Equilibrium Model and Dynamic Capabilities to present theory on BPM Progression and BPM Maturity. Using the BPM Capability Framework developed through an international Delphi study series, the Researcher shows how the specific organisational context influences which capability areas an organisation chooses to progress. By comparing five separate organisations over an extended time the Researcher is able to show that, despite this disparity, there is some evidence of consistency with regard to the capability areas progressed. This suggests that subsequent identification of progression paths may be possible. The study also shows that the approach and scope taken to BPM within each organisation is a likely predictor of such paths. These outcomes result in the proposal of a formative model for measuring BPM Maturity.

A preliminary theory of dark network resilience

A crucial contemporary policy question for governments across the globe is how to cope with international crime and terrorist networks. Many such “dark” networks—that is, networks that operate covertly and illegally—display a remarkable level of resilience when faced with shocks and attacks. Based on an in-depth study of three cases (MK, the armed wing of the African National Congress in South Africa during apartheid; FARC, the Marxist guerrilla movement in Colombia; and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, LTTE, in Sri Lanka), we present a set of propositions to outline how shocks impact dark network characteristics (resources and legitimacy) and networked capabilities (replacing actors, linkages, balancing integration and differentiation) and how these in turn affect a dark network's resilience over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers.

A communitarian theory of the education rights of students with disabilities

There is a lack of writing on the issue of the education rights of people with disabilities by authors of any theoretical persuasion. While the deficiency of theory may be explained by a variety of historical, philosophical and practical considerations, it is a deficiency which must be addressed. Otherwise, any statement of rights rings out as hollow rhetoric unsupported by sound reason and moral rectitude. This paper attempts to address this deficiency in education rights theory by postulating a communitarian theory of the education rights of people with disabilities. The theory is developed from communitarian writings on the role of education in democratic society. The communitarian school, like the community within which it nests, is inclusive. Schools both reflect and model the shape of communitarian society and have primary responsibility for teaching the knowledge and virtues which will allow citizens to belong to and function within society. Communitarians emphasise responsibilities, however, as the corollary of rights and require the individual good to yield to community good when the hard cases arise. The article not only explains the basis of the right to an inclusive education, therefore, but also engages with the difficult issue of when such a right may not be enforceable.

Prediction of structural integrity, robustness and service life using advanced finite element methods

Corrosion is a common phenomenon and critical aspects of steel structural application. It affects the daily design, inspection and maintenance in structural engineering, especially for the heavy and complex industrial applications, where the steel structures are subjected to hash corrosive environments in combination of high working stress condition and often in open field and/or under high temperature production environments. In the paper, it presents the actual engineering application of advanced finite element methods in the predication of the structural integrity and robustness at a designed service life for the furnaces of alumina production, which was operated in the high temperature, corrosive environments and rotating with high working stress condition.

Re-thinking how we plan to address technically complex problems : drawing on planning theory to guide practice in revision of land use plans in coastal high hazard zones

Queensland's new State Planning Policy for Coastal Protection, released in March and approved in April 2011 as part of the Queensland Coastal Plan, stipulates that local governments prepare and implement adaptation strategies for built up areas projected to be subject to coastal hazards between present day and 2100. Urban localities within the delineated coastal high hazard zone (as determined by models incorporating a 0.8 meter rise in sea level and a 10% increase in the maximum cyclone activity) will be required to re-evaluate their plans to accommodate growth, revising land use plans to minimise impacts of anticipated erosion and flooding on developed areas and infrastructure. While implementation of such strategies would aid in avoidance or minimisation of risk exposure, communities are likely to face significant challenges in such implementation, especially as development in Queensland is so intensely focussed upon its coasts with these new policies directing development away from highly desirable waterfront land. This paper examines models of planning theory to understand how we plan when faced with technically complex problems towards formulation of a framework for evaluating and improving practice.

Knowledge-based urban development redefined : from theory to practice knowledge-based development of cities

The concept of knowledge-based urban development has first come to the urban planning and development agenda during the very last years of the 20th century as a promising paradigm to support the transformation process of cities into knowledge cities and their societies into knowledge societies. However, soon after the exponentially rapid advancements experienced, during the first decade of the 21st century, particularly, in the domains of economy, society, management and technology along with the severe impacts of climate change, have made the redefinition of the term a necessity. This paper, first, reports the findings of the review of the relatively short but dynamic history of urbanisation experiences of our cities around the globe. The paper, then, focuses on the 21st century urbanisation context and discusses the conceptual base of the knowledge-based development of cities and how this concept found application ground in many parts of the world. Following this, the paper speculates development of future cities by particularly highlighting potential challenges and opportunities that previously have not been fully considered. This paper, lastly, introduces and elaborates how relevant theories support the better conceptualisation of this relatively new, but rapidly emerging paradigm, and redefines it accordingly.

A grounded theory of protest movement continuity

Using a thematic story telling approach which draws on ethnographic method, a grounded theory of protest movement continuity is presented. The grounded theory draws from theories and activist stories relating to the facilitative role of movement networks, social contagion theory and the cultural experience of activism. It highlights the contagious influence of protest networks in maintaining protest continuity over time and how this leads to common perceptions of development risk and opportunity within communities. It also reveals how communities use collective values and identity, social capital, emotional dynamics and symbolic artifacts to maintain protest continuity.