Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Experimenting with the future of journalism : social capital as a desideratum for networked journalism research

The aim of this article is to position social capital as a theoretical framework for investigating online communities, specifically pro-am operations. It will review pertinent literature on social capital and the future of journalism in this context, and detail how the broader field of Sociology and this dynamic field of Journalism converge to produce a unique opportunity for pro-am research. Currently, much concern has been expressed regarding the future of journalism institutions in society, and while journalism itself is seen as a cornerstone of democracy, the form of structures that facilitate such practice has been questioned. Compounding this problem is a lack of research that produces data suitable for meta-analysis. For example, case-study data of start-up operations in this volatile field do not provide sufficient grounds for conclusions that could result in evidence-based policy. In response to these dynamics, this article will propose experimentation as a method of research for pro-am start-ups.

Internal audit involvement in enterprise risk management

Purpose The paper examines the impact of internal auditors’ involvement in Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) on perceptions of their willingness to report a breakdown in risk procedures and whether a strong relationship with the audit committee affects such willingness to report. The study also investigates the use of ERM and the role of internal audit in ERM in Australian private and public sector entities. Design/methodology/approach The study uses an experimental design, manipulating (i) the internal auditor’s involvement in ERM and (ii) the strength of the relationship between internal audit and the audit committee. Participants are 117 certified internal auditors. The study also gathers descriptive data on the use of ERM. Findings The study indicates that a high involvement in ERM impacts the perceptions of internal auditors’ willingness to report a breakdown in risk procedures to the audit committee. However, a strong relationship with the audit committee does not appear to affect their perceived willingness to report. The study also finds that the majority of organisations have recently adopted ERM. Internal auditors are involved in ERM assurance activities but some also engage in activities that could compromise objectivity.

Optimising employee engagement with internal communication : a social exchange perspective

Drawing on principles of social exchange this thesis employs mediated regression to investigate the relationship between internal communication and employee engagement in the Australian workforce. Findings suggest organisations and supervisors should focus internal communication efforts toward building greater perceptions of support and stronger identification among employees in order to foster optimal engagement. This research contributes to public relations and management scholarship through understanding how perceived support and identification act as mediating mechanisms in the relationship between internal communication and employee engagement at the organisational and supervisory level.

Structured contract strategies for capital and operations expenditure projects in the oil and gas industry

This project was a step forward in developing a 'descriptive theory' of contracting in the oil and gas industry that reflects the operating environment in which the project manager operates. This study investigates the existing processes and methods used in establishing contracts which are very often prescriptive, and not always appropriate or optimal for a given situation. This study contributes to contracting effectiveness or optimal contracting in the oil and gas industry.

Optimizing employee engagement with internal communication : a social exchange perspective

Employee engagement is linked to higher productivity, lower attrition, and improved organizational reputations resulting in increased focus and resourcing by managers to foster an engaged workforce. While drivers of employee engagement have been identified as perceived support, job characteristics, and value congruence, internal communication is theoretically suggested to be a key influence in both the process and maintenance of employee engagement efforts. However, understanding the mechanisms by which internal communication influences employee engagement has emerged as a key question in the literature. The purpose of this research is to investigate whether social factors, namely perceived support and identification, play a mediating role in the relationship between internal communication and engagement. To test the theoretical model, data are collected from 200 non-executive employees using an online self-administered survey. The study applies linear and mediated regression to the model and finds that organizations and supervisors should focus internal communication efforts toward building greater perceptions of support and stronger identification among employees in order to foster optimal levels of engagement.

Discussion on full-scale internal pressure measurements

The wind loading on most structural elements is made up of both an external and internal pressure. Internal pressures are also important for the design of naturally ventilated buildings. The internal pressure is the interaction between the external pressure propagating through the building envelope and any internal plant causing building pressurization. Although the external pressure field can be well defined through a series of wind tunnel tests, modeling complexities makes accurate prediction of the internal pressure difficult. For commercial testing for the determination of design cladding pressures, an internal pressure coefficient is generally assumed from wind loading standards. Several theories regarding the propagation of internal pressures through single and multiple dominant openings have been proposed for small and large flexible buildings (Harris (1990), Holmes, (1979), Liu & Saathoff (1981 ), Vickery (1986, 1994), Vickery & Bloxham (1992), Vickery & Georgiou (1991))...

Model for internal porosity development of different shaped foods

Three particular geometrical shapes of foods were prepared from food materials. Cuboidal (aspect ratio = 1:1, 2:1, 3:1) , cylindrical (length: dameter = 1:1, 2:1, 3:1) and spheres were selected from potato, beans and peas respectively. Internal porosity was determined from solid density (theoretical)and particle density (experimental) during fluidised bed drying at different moisture contents. Solid density was calculated using formulae (conservation of mass and volume) already published in the literature by previous researchers. Determined porosity values were correlated with moisture ratio for different geometrical shapes.

Capital cost model for Robert evaporators

ROBERT EVAPORATORS in Australian sugar factories are traditionally constructed with 44.45 mm outside diameter stainless steel tubes of ~2 m length for all stages of evaporation. There are a few vessels with longer tubes (up to 2.8 m) and smaller and larger diameters (38.1 and 50.8 mm). Queensland University of Technology is undertaking a study to investigate the heat transfer performance of tubes of different lengths and diameters for the whole range of process conditions typically encountered in the evaporator set. Incorporation of these results into practical evaporator designs requires an understanding of the cost implications for constructing evaporator vessels with calandrias having tubes of different dimensions. Cost savings are expected for tubes of smaller diameter and longer length in terms of material, labour and installation costs in the factory. However these savings must be considered in terms of the heat transfer area requirements for the evaporation duty, which will likely be a function of the tube dimensions. In this paper a capital cost model is described which provides a relative cost of constructing and installing Robert evaporators of the same heating surface area but with different tube dimensions. Evaporators of 2000, 3000, 4000 and 5000 m2 are investigated. This model will be used in conjunction with the heat transfer efficiency data (when available) to determine the optimum tube dimensions for a new evaporator at a specified evaporation duty. Consideration is also given to other factors such as juice residence time (and implications for sucrose degradation and control) and droplet de-entrainment in evaporators of different tube dimensions.

Generation of uniform plasmas by crossed internal oscillating current sheets : key concepts and experimental verification

The results of comprehensive experimental studies of the operation, stability, and plasma parameters of the low-frequency (0.46 MHz) inductively coupled plasmas sustained by the internal oscillating rf current are reported. The rf plasma is generated by using a custom-designed configuration of the internal rf coil that comprises two perpendicular sets of eight currents in each direction. Various diagnostic tools, such as magnetic probes, optical emission spectroscopy, and an rf-compensated Langmuir probe were used to investigate the electromagnetic, optical, and global properties of the argon plasma in wide ranges of the applied rf power and gas feedstock pressure. It is found that the uniformity of the electromagnetic field inside the plasma reactor is improved as compared to the conventional sources of inductively coupled plasmas with the external flat coil configuration. A reasonable agreement between the experimental data and computed electromagnetic field topography inside the chamber is reported. The Langmuir probe measurements reveal that the spatial profiles of the electron density, the effective electron temperature, plasma potential, and electron energy distribution/probability functions feature a high degree of the radial and axial uniformity and a weak azimuthal dependence, which is consistent with the earlier theoretical predictions. As the input rf power increases, the azimuthal dependence of the global plasma parameters vanishes. The obtained results demonstrate that by introducing the internal oscillated rf currents one can noticeably improve the uniformity of electromagnetic field topography, rf power deposition, and the plasma density in the reactor.

Inductively coupled plasmas sustained by an internal oscillating current

A global electromagnetic model of an inductively coupled plasma sustained by an internal oscillating current sheet in a cylindrical metal vessel is developed. The electromagnetic field structure, profiles of the rf power transferred to the plasma electrons, electron/ion number density, and working points of the discharge are studied, by invoking particle and power balance. It is revealed that the internal rf current with spatially invariable phase significantly improves the radial uniformity of the electromagnetic fields and the power density in the chamber as compared with conventional plasma sources with external flat spiral inductive coils. This configuration offers the possibility of controlling the rf power deposition in the azimuthal direction.

The phenomenological approach : a framework to design markets

An approach is proposed and applied to five industries to prove how phenomenology can be valuable in rethinking consumer markets (Popp & Holt, 2013). The purpose of this essay is to highlight the potential implications that 'phenomenological thinking' brings for competitiveness and innovation (Sanders, 1982), hence helping managers being more innovative in their strategic marketing decisions (i.e. market creation, positioning, branding). Phenomenology is in fact a way of thinking − besides and before being a qualitative research procedure − a very practical exercise that strategic managers can master and apply in the same successful way as other scientists have already done in their fields of study (e.g. sociology, psychology, psychiatry, and anthropology). Two fundamental considerations justify this research: a lack of distinctiveness among firms due to high levels of competition and consumers no longer knowing what they want (i.e. no more needs). The authors will show how the classical mental framework generally used to study markets by practitioners appears on the one hand to be established and systematic in the life of a company, while on the other is no longer adequate to meet the needs of innovation required to survive. To the classic principles of objectivity, generality, and psycho-sociology the authors counterpose the imaginary, eidetic-phenomenological reduction, and an existential perspective. From a theoretical point of view, this paper introduces a set of functioning rules applicable to achieve innovation in any market and useful to identify cultural practices inherent in the act of consumption.

Effect of an internal rotating current on low-frequency inductively coupled plasmas

The effects of an inductively rotating current were observed on low-frequency inductively coupled plasmas. The spatial distribution of electromagnetic fields was investigated in a cylindrical metallic chamber filled with dense plasma. The distribution of the magnetic field in plasma chamber was observed for rarefied and dense plasmas. The plasma was assumed as uniform in the electromagnetic fields. The results showed the plasma density increased with power and the electron density increased with pressure.