Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Pacific Journalism Review : Twenty years on the front line of regional identity and freedom

Pacific Journalism Review has consistently, at a good standard, honoured its 1994 founding goal: to be a credible peer-reviewed journal in the Asia-Pacific region, probing developments in journalism and media, and supporting journalism education. Global, it considers new media and social movements; ‘regional’, it promotes vernacular media, human freedoms and sustainable development. Asking how it developed, the method for this article was to research the archive, noting authors, subject matter, themes. The article concludes that one answer is the journal’s collegiate approach; hundreds of academics, journalists and others, have been invited to contribute. Second has been the dedication of its one principal editor, Professor David Robie, always somehow providing resources—at Port Moresby, Suva, and now Auckland—with a consistent editorial stance. Eclectic, not partisan, it has nevertheless been vigilant over rights, such as monitoring the Fiji coups d’etat. Watching through a media lens, it follows a ‘Pacific way’, handling hard information through understanding and consensus. It has 237 subscriptions indexed to seven databases. Open source, it receives more than 1000 site visits weekly. With ‘clientele’ mostly in Australia, New Zealand and ‘Oceania’, it extends much further afield. From 1994 to 2014, 701 articles and reviews were published, now more than 24 scholarly articles each year.

Accountability 30 years on: Insurance Contracts Act Reform

The Insurance Contracts Act 1984 (Cth) since inception has effected major reform to the law in this field. One of Australia’s most frequently cited pieces of legislation, it has had a major impact upon the law and practice of insurance. Given the importance of insurance to domestic and commercial activity and its pivotal position as a mechanism to manage exposure to risk, it is not surprising that this legislation has been the subject of extensive analysis in the courts and in legal literature. Furthermore the Act has, arising out of a 2009 review, been significantly amended by the Insurance Contracts Amendment Act 2013 (Cth). The principal amendments introduced are: two-fold: the Insurance Contracts Act 1984 (Cth) has been amended so that a failure to comply with the duty of good faith is now a breach of the Act; and disclosure and misrepresentation provisions under the Insurance Contracts Act 1984 (Cth) are amended and clarified.

General practitioner utilisation amongst urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged less than 5 years

Aim There are limited studies documenting the frequency and reason for attendance to primary health care services in Australian children, particularly for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children. This study describes health service utilisation in this population in an urban setting. Methods An ongoing prospective cohort study of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged <5 years registered with an urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander primary health care centre in Brisbane, Australia. Detailed demographic, clinical, health service utilisation and risk factor data are collected by Aboriginal researchers at enrolment and monthly for a period of 12 months on each child. The incidence of health service utilisation was calculated according to the Poisson distribution. Results Between 14 February 2013 and 31 October 2014, 118 children were recruited, providing data for 535 child-months of observation. Ninety-one percent of children were Aboriginal, 4% Torres Strait Islander and 5% were both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander. The incidence of presentations to see a doctor for any reason was 43.9 episodes/100 child months (95%CI 38.4 – 49.9) The most common reasons for presentation were for immunisations (23%), respiratory illnesses (19%) and for Australian Government funded Indigenous child health check (16%). The primary health services used, for majority of these visits were Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander specific medical services (61%). Conclusions Within a cultural-specific service for an urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, there is a high frequency of childhood attendance at for primary health care services. Well-health checks and respiratory illnesses were the most common reasons. The high proportion of visits for well child services suggests a potential for opportunistic health promotion, education and early interventions across a range of child health issues.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: Ten years of cancer-registry-based surveillance

The Tasmanian Cancer Registry carried out population-based surveillance of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) from 1978 to 1987. A total of 8,651 NMSC were recorded in 7,160 individuals, representing an age-standardized rate of 161/100,000 per year. Ninety-four percent of cases were based on histological diagnosis. Incidence of basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) was higher than the incidence of squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC). The incidence of NMSC was twice as high in men as in women. Incidence increased substantially with age, more markedly for SCC than BCC. For most body sites, BCC was more frequent, but on highly exposed sites such as the backs of hands, lower limbs in women and ears in men, the incidence of SCC was higher. There was an overall increase of 7% per year in the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC. The increase was more marked for BCC than for SCC, and was consistent across age groups and both sexes. A first NMSC during the study period was associated with a 12-fold increase among men and a 15-fold increase among women in the risk of development of a new NMSC within 5 years, when compared with the NMSC incidence recorded for the population as a whole.

The Queensland liver transplant programme: The first two years

Orthotopic liver transplantation began in Brisbane in January 1985. During the first two years of the programme an assessment committee evaluated 55 patients (38 adults, 17 children). Patients were either accepted for transplantation, rejected as unsuitable or deferred for elective reassessment. All of the 10 adults who were rejected for transplantation because they had 'too advanced' disease died within four months of assessment. Six children who were accepted for transplantation died before a suitable donor liver could be found. In the first two years, 21 orthotopic liver transplantations were performed on 18 patients (adults, 13 patients; children, five patients). Fifteen of 21 grafts were procured from within Queensland. Twelve (67%) patients are alive at three to 23 months and all have been discharged from hospital. Deaths in adults were due to sepsis (three patients), aspiration pneumonitis (one patient), rejection and hepatic artery thrombosis (one patient) and the recurrence of a hepatocellular carcinoma five months after discharge from hospital (one patient). Two patients underwent a second transplantation procedure because of chronic rejection at four months and at 11 months, respectively, after the initial operation. One patient received a second transplant for primary graft failure at four days after the operation. A scoring system which considered the presence of pre-operative patient factors, such as coma, ascites, malnutrition and previous abdominal surgery, partly predicted the operative blood loss and patient survival. In conclusion, orthotopic liver transplantation is being performed in Australia with survival rates that are comparable with those of established overseas units.

What does the review of the Australian Curriculum mean for History in the Primary Years?

The recent introduction of the Australian Curriculum: History as a timetabled school subject has enhanced the teaching of history in the primary years. Previously, history was integrated with geography, economics and civics and citizenship; however, in the new curriculum students are introduced to history from their first year at school. The review addresses significant concerns about the scope and content in history in an over-crowded primary curriculum (Donnelly & Wiltshire, 2014; APPA, 2014). However, the history curriculum provides a rare opportunity to explore distinctive content and develop agency by investigating personal, local, national and international contexts. This paper examines the recommendations of the review and the implications for history in the primary years.

Written numeracy assessment in the early years: The challenges of pronouns and noun groups

We examine the challenges of pronouns and noun groups in the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s (ACARA) Year 3 National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) Numeracy Example Test (ACARA, 2015a). Framed by discourses of Literacy as a General Capability (ACARA, 2015b) in the Australian Curriculum: Mathematics (ACARA, 2015c), the pronouns and noun groups used in the Example Test are mapped onto the Australian Curriculum: English Content Descriptions (ACARA, 2015d). The findings are that some of the pronouns and noun groups used in the Example Test are more complex than what Year 3 children are expected to achieve in the Australian Curriculum: English. We thus stress the need for early years teachers of mathematics to account for the unique mathematical register of written mathematics problems so that young children are not only prepared for high-stakes written numeracy assessments, but are also enabled as a numerically literate citizen.

Polypharmacy among inpatients aged 70 years or older in Australia

Objectives To investigate medication changes for older patients admitted to hospital and to explore associations between patient characteristics and polypharmacy. Design Prospective cohort study. Participants and setting Patients aged 70 years or older admitted to general medical units of 11 acute care hospitals in two Australian states between July 2005 and May 2010. All patients were assessed using the interRAI assessment system for acute care. Main outcome measures Measures of physical, cognitive and psychosocial functioning; and number of regular prescribed medications categorised into three groups: non-polypharmacy (0–4 drugs), polypharmacy (5–9 drugs) and hyperpolypharmacy (≥ 10 drugs). Results Of 1220 patients who were recruited for the study, medication records at admission were available for 1216. Mean age was 81.3 years (SD, 6.8 years), and 659 patients (54.2%) were women. For the 1187 patients with complete medication records on admission and discharge, there was a small but statistically significant increase in mean number of regular medications per day between admission and discharge (7.1 v 7.6), while the prevalence of medications such as statins (459 [38.7%] v 457 [38.5%] patients), opioid analgesics (155 [13.1%] v 166 [14.0%] patients), antipsychotics (59 [5.0%] v 65 [5.5%] patients) and benzodiazepines (122 [10.3%] v 135 [11.4%] patients) did not change significantly. Being in a higher polypharmacy category was significantly associated with increase in comorbidities (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20–1.34), presence of pain (OR, 1.31; 1.05–1.64), dyspnoea (OR, 1.64; 1.30–2.07) and dependence in terms of instrumental activities of daily living (OR, 1.70; 1.20–2.41). Hyperpolypharmacy was observed in 290/1216 patients (23.8%) at admission and 336/1187 patients (28.3%) on discharge, and the proportion of preventive medication in the hyperpolypharmacy category at both points in time remained high (1209/3371 [35.9%] at admission v 1508/4117 [36.6%] at discharge). Conclusions Polypharmacy is common among older people admitted to general medical units of Australian hospitals, with no clinically meaningful change to the number or classification (symptom control, prevention or both) of drugs made by treating physicians.

The disruptive technologies that will shape business in the years ahead

Regardless of your industry, the marketplace is continually evolving. The reason, increasingly, is the evolution of disruptive technology. Disruptive technologies are enhanced or new technological innovations that essentially displace conventional and established technology, rendering it obsolete. They can create opportunities for new products, new markets, and new ways of conducting business. In 2016, business models will again change as businesses adapt. The enhancement of current technology and the development of new technological innovations will undeniably transform how new businesses are established, and how existing businesses compete. For small and medium-sized firms, technology will also enable significant leaps forward in terms of innovation, efficiency and competitiveness. Adapting quickly will be essential, so here’s the top six we think you should be prepared for.

The identification of teaching interactions used in one-to-one teaching of number in the early years of schooling

This research paper reports on phase one of an investigation of video recorded intensive one-to-one teaching interactions with 6–7-year-old students who were in their second year of schooling in Australia and identified by the their teacher as low attaining in early number. The two-phased study from which this paper emerges was originally conducted in 1998 as part of my Bachelor of Teaching Honours (Research) program at Southern Cross University Lismore, New South Wales. That study identified teaching interactions particularly suited to one-to-one teaching in the Maths Recovery Program, a program designed for these students who were at risk of failure in early number. Since that time a great deal has not changed with limited literature available that comprehensively reports on teaching interactions in intensive one-to-one settings. Revisiting the original study is considered timely given the increasing number of withdrawal and intensive programs now funded and adopted by schools and yet, rarely reported on in terms of the effectiveness of the teaching interactions that occur in such settings. This paper then presents a discussion of a preliminary series of teaching interactions that either positively and or negatively influence an intensive one-to-one teaching and learning setting

Sleep and self-regulation from birth to 7 years: A retrospective study of children with and without ADHD at 8-9 years

Objective To examine mean level differences, and longitudinal and reciprocal relations among behavioral sleep problems, emotional dysregulation, and attentional regulation across early childhood for children with and without ADHD at 8-9 years. Method This study used data from Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) – Infant Cohort (n = 4109 analyzed). Children with and without ADHD were identified at age 8-9 years via parent-report of ADHD diagnosis and the 5-item Inattention-Hyperactivity subscale from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Maternal report of child sleep problems and self-regulation was collected at 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 and 6-7 years of age. ANOVA was used to compare mean level differences in sleep problems, emotional and attentional regulation by ADHD group. Longitudinal structural equation modeling examined the relations among sleep and self-regulation across time in children with and without ADHD. Results Children with ADHD had persistently elevated levels of sleep problems (from infancy) and emotional and attentional dysregulation compared to controls (from 2-3 years of age). Sleep problems, emotional dysregulation, and attentional regulation were stable over time for both groups. Sleep problems were associated with greater emotional dysregulation two years later from 2-3 years of age for both groups, which in turn was associated with poorer attentional regulation. There was no direct relationship between sleep problems and later attentional regulation. Conclusion Sleep problems in children with and without ADHD are associated with emotional dysregulation, which in turn contributes to poorer attentional functioning. This study highlights the importance of assessing and managing sleep problems in young children.

The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ-28): A parsimonious version validated for longitudinal use from 2-5 years

Prospective studies and intervention evaluations that examine change over time assume that measurement tools measure the same construct at each occasion. In the area of parent-child feeding practices, longitudinal measurement properties of the questionnaires used are rarely verified. To ascertain that measured change in feeding practices reflects true change rather than change in the assessment, structure, or conceptualisation of the constructs over time, this study examined longitudinal measurement invariance of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) subscales (9 constructs; 40 items) across 3 time points. Mothers participating in the NOURISH trial reported their feeding practices when children were aged 2, 3.7, and 5 years (N = 404). Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) within a structural equation modelling framework was used. Comparisons of initial cross-sectional models followed by longitudinal modelling of subscales, resulted in the removal of 12 items, including two redundant or poorly performing subscales. The resulting 28-item FPSQ-28 comprised 7 multi-item subscales: Reward for Behaviour, Reward for Eating, Persuasive Feeding, Overt Restriction, Covert Restriction, Structured Meal Setting and Structured Meal Timing. All subscales showed good fit over 3 time points and each displayed at least partial scalar (thresholds equal) longitudinal measurement invariance. We recommend the use of a separate single item indicator to assess the family meal setting. This is the first study to examine longitudinal measurement invariance in a feeding practices questionnaire. Invariance was established, indicating that the subscales of the shortened FPSQ-28 can be used with mothers to validly assess change in 7 feeding constructs in samples of children aged 2-5 years of age.

Child dietary and eating behaviour outcomes up to 3.5 years after an early feeding intervention: the NOURISH RCT

- Objective To evaluate dietary intake impact outcomes up to 3.5 years after the NOURISH early feeding intervention (concealed allocation, assessor masked RCT). - Methods 698 first-time mothers with healthy term infants were allocated to receive anticipatory guidance on protective feeding practices or usual care. Outcomes were assessed at 2, 3.7 and 5 years (3.5 years post-intervention). Dietary intake was assessed by 24-hour recall and Child Dietary Questionnaire. Mothers completed a food preference questionnaire and Children’s Eating Behaviour Questionnaire. Linear mixed models assessed group, time and time x group effects. - Results There were no group or time x group effects for fruit, vegetables, discretionary food and non-milk sweetened beverages intake. Intervention children showed a higher preference for fruits (74.6% vs 69.0% liked, P<.001), higher Child Dietary Questionnaire score for fruit and vegetables (15.3 vs 14.5, target>18, P=0.03), lower food responsiveness (2.3 vs 2.4, of maximum 5, P=.04) and higher satiety responsiveness (3.1 vs 3.0, of maximum 5, P=.04). - Conclusions Compared to usual care, an early feeding intervention providing anticipatory guidance regarding positive feeding practices led to small improvements in child dietary score, food preferences and eating behaviours up to 5 years of age, but not in dietary intake measured by 24-hour recall.

The Systems Theory Framework of career development: 20 years of contribution to theory and practice

The development and sustained contribution of the Systems Theory Framework to career development theory and practice is well documented in national and international literatures. In addition to its contribution to theory integration, it has added to the growing literature on connecting career theory and practice, in particular for non-Western populations. In addition, it has been the basis of the development of a broad array of constructivist approaches to career counselling, and indeed specific reflective career assessment activities. This article begins with a brief history of the Systems Theory Framework which is then followed by a rationale for its development. The contribution of the Systems Theory Framework to theory and practice is then described prior to concluding comments by the authors.