Trace-element modeling of the magmatic evolution of rare-earth-rich carbonatite from the Miaoya deposit, Central China

Carbonatites are known to contain the highest concentrations of rare-earth elements (REE) among all igneous rocks. The REE distribution of carbonatites is commonly believed to be controlled by that of the rock forming Ca minerals (i.e., calcite, dolomite, and ankerite) and apatite because of their high modal content and tolerance for the substitution of Ca by light REE (LREE). Contrary to this conjecture, calcite from the Miaoya carbonatite (China), analyzed in situ by laser-ablation inductively-coupled-plasma mass-spectrometry, is characterized by low REE contents (100–260 ppm) and relatively !at chondrite-normalized REE distribution patterns [average (La/Yb)CN=1.6]. The carbonatite contains abundant REE-rich minerals, including monazite and !uorapatite, both precipitated earlier than the REE-poor calcite, and REE-fluorocarbonates that postdated the calcite. Hydrothermal REE-bearing !uorite and barite veins are not observed at Miaoya. The textural and analytical evidence indicates that the initially high concentrations of REE and P in the carbonatitic magma facilitated early precipitation of REE-rich phosphates. Subsequent crystallization of REE-poor calcite led to enrichment of the residual liquid in REE, particularly LREE. This implies that REE are generally incompatible with respect to calcite and the calcite/melt partition coefficients for heavy REE (HREE) are significantly greater than those for LREE. Precipitation of REE-fluorocarbonates late in the evolutionary history resulted in depletion of the residual liquid in LREE, as manifested by the development of HREE-enriched late-stage calcite [(La/Yb)CN=0.7] in syenites associated with the carbonatite. The observed variations of REE distribution between calcite and whole rocks are interpreted to arise from multistage fractional crystallization (phosphates!calcite!REE-!uorocarbonates) from an initially REE-rich carbonatitic liquid.

Modeling predictors of risky drug use behavior among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Background The application of theoretical frameworks for modeling predictors of drug risk among male street laborers remains limited. The objective of this study was to test a modified version of the IMB (Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model), which includes psychosocial stress, and compare this modified version with the original IMB model in terms of goodness-of-fit to predict risky drug use behavior among this population. Methods In a cross-sectional study, social mapping technique was conducted to recruit 450 male street laborers from 135 street venues across 13 districts of Hanoi city, Vietnam, for face-to-face interviews. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze data from interviews. Results Overall measures of fit via SEM indicated that the original IMB model provided a better fit to the data than the modified version. Although the former model was able to predict a lesser variance than the latter (55% vs. 62%), it was of better fit. The findings suggest that men who are better informed and motivated for HIV prevention are more likely to report higher behavioral skills, which, in turn, are less likely to be engaged in risky drug use behavior. Conclusions This was the first application of the modified IMB model for drug use in men who were unskilled, unregistered laborers in urban settings. An AIDS prevention program for these men should not only distribute information and enhance motivations for HIV prevention, but consider interventions that could improve self-efficacy for preventing HIV infection. Future public health research and action may also consider broader factors such as structural social capital and social policy to alter the conditions that drive risky drug use among these men.

How neoliberalism and ecological modernization shaped environmental policy in Australia

‘Sustainability’ provides the dominant frame within which environmental policy debate occurs, notwithstanding its divergent meanings. However, how different discourses combine to shape understanding of the environment, the causes of environmental issues, and the responses required, is less clear cut. Drawing primarily on the approach to critical discourse analysis (CDA) developed by Fairclough, this paper explores the way in which neoliberal and ecologically modern discourses combine to shape environmental policy. Environmental scholars have made relatively little use of this approach to CDA to date, despite the significant interest in the discursive aspects of environmental issues, and its wide use in other areas of policy interest. Using the case of environmental policy-making in Victoria, Australia, this paper illustrates how neoliberalism and weak ecological modernization represented sustainability in ways that seriously limited the importance of environmental issues.

Modeling bus rapid transit station bus queuing for operational analysis

This paper presents mathematical models for BRT station operation, calibrated using microscopic simulation modelling. Models are presented for station capacity and bus queue length. No reliable model presently exists to estimate bus queue length. The proposed bus queue model is analogous to an unsignalized intersection queuing model.

Modeling Bus Rapid Transit station bus queuing for Bus Rapid Transit station bus operation analysis

Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy is used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. In the first of three stages, we conducted microscopic simulation modeling to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. A mathematical model was then developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time. Finally, simulation results were calibrated and validated.

Establishing definitions and modeling public transport travel time variability

Public transport travel time variability (PTTV) is essential for understanding deteriorations in the reliability of travel time, optimizing transit schedules and route choices. This paper establishes key definitions of PTTV in which firstly include all buses, and secondly include only a single service from a bus route. The paper then analyses the day-to-day distribution of public transport travel time by using Transit Signal Priority data. A comprehensive approach using both parametric bootstrapping Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Bayesian Information Creation technique is developed, recommends Lognormal distribution as the best descriptor of bus travel time on urban corridors. The probability density function of Lognormal distribution is finally used for calculating probability indicators of PTTV. The findings of this study are useful for both traffic managers and statisticians for planning and researching the transit systems.

A stochastic thermostat algorithm for coarse-grained thermomechanical modeling of large-scale soft matters : theory and application to microfilaments

As all-atom molecular dynamics method is limited by its enormous computational cost, various coarse-grained strategies have been developed to extend the length scale of soft matters in the modeling of mechanical behaviors. However, the classical thermostat algorithm in highly coarse-grained molecular dynamics method would underestimate the thermodynamic behaviors of soft matters (e.g. microfilaments in cells), which can weaken the ability of materials to overcome local energy traps in granular modeling. Based on all-atom molecular dynamics modeling of microfilament fragments (G-actin clusters), a new stochastic thermostat algorithm is developed to retain the representation of thermodynamic properties of microfilaments at extra coarse-grained level. The accuracy of this stochastic thermostat algorithm is validated by all-atom MD simulation. This new stochastic thermostat algorithm provides an efficient way to investigate the thermomechanical properties of large-scale soft matters.

Applying the ecological model of behavior change to a physical activity trial in retirement communities : description of the study protocol

Objectives To describe the intervention protocol for the first multilevel ecological intervention for physical activity in retirement communities that addresses individual, interpersonal and community influences on behavior change. Design A cluster randomized controlled trial design was employed with two study arms: a physical activity intervention and an attention control successful aging condition. Setting Sixteen continuing care retirement communities in San Diego County. Participants Three hundred twenty older adults, aged 65 years and older, are being recruited to participate in the trial. In addition, peer leaders are being recruited to lead some study activities, especially to sustain the intervention after study activities ceased. Intervention Participants in the physical activity trial receive individual, interpersonal and community intervention components. The individual level components include pedometers, goal setting and individual phone counseling. The interpersonal level components include group education sessions and peer-led activities. The community level components include resource audits and enumeration, tailored walking maps, and community improvement projects. The successful aging group receives individual and group attention about successful aging topics. Measurements The main outcome is light to moderate physical activity, measured objectively by accelerometry. Other objective outcomes included physical functioning, blood pressure, physical fitness, and cognitive functioning. Self report measures include depressive symptoms and health related quality of life. Results The intervention is being delivered successfully in the communities and compliance rates are high. Conclusion Ecological Models call for interventions that address multiple levels of the model. Previous studies have not included components at each level and retirement communities provide a model environment to demonstrate how to implement such an intervention.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Error modeling and calibration of exteroceptive sensors for accurate mapping applications

Reliable robotic perception and planning are critical to performing autonomous actions in uncertain, unstructured environments. In field robotic systems, automation is achieved by interpreting exteroceptive sensor information to infer something about the world. This is then mapped to provide a consistent spatial context, so that actions can be planned around the predicted future interaction of the robot and the world. The whole system is as reliable as the weakest link in this chain. In this paper, the term mapping is used broadly to describe the transformation of range-based exteroceptive sensor data (such as LIDAR or stereo vision) to a fixed navigation frame, so that it can be used to form an internal representation of the environment. The coordinate transformation from the sensor frame to the navigation frame is analyzed to produce a spatial error model that captures the dominant geometric and temporal sources of mapping error. This allows the mapping accuracy to be calculated at run time. A generic extrinsic calibration method for exteroceptive range-based sensors is then presented to determine the sensor location and orientation. This allows systematic errors in individual sensors to be minimized, and when multiple sensors are used, it minimizes the systematic contradiction between them to enable reliable multisensor data fusion. The mathematical derivations at the core of this model are not particularly novel or complicated, but the rigorous analysis and application to field robotics seems to be largely absent from the literature to date. The techniques in this paper are simple to implement, and they offer a significant improvement to the accuracy, precision, and integrity of mapped information. Consequently, they should be employed whenever maps are formed from range-based exteroceptive sensor data. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Did socio-ecological factors drive the spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)?

BACKGROUND Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has a significant public health impact. This study aimed to examine the effect of socio-ecological factors on the transmission of H1N1 in Brisbane, Australia. METHODOLOGY We obtained data from Queensland Health on numbers of laboratory-confirmed daily H1N1 in Brisbane by statistical local areas (SLA) in 2009. Data on weather and socio-economic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between variation of H1N1 and independent factors and to determine its spatiotemporal patterns. RESULTS Our results show that average increase in weekly H1N1 cases were 45.04% (95% credible interval (CrI): 42.63-47.43%) and 23.20% (95% CrI: 16.10-32.67%), for a 1 °C decrease in average weekly maximum temperature at a lag of one week and a 10mm decrease in average weekly rainfall at a lag of one week, respectively. An interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on H1N1 incidence was found (changes: 0.71%; 95% CrI: 0.48-0.98%). The auto-regression term was significantly associated with H1N1 transmission (changes: 2.5%; 95% CrI: 1.39-3.72). No significant association between socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA) and H1N1 was observed at SLA level. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate that average weekly temperature at lag of one week and rainfall at lag of one week were substantially associated with H1N1 incidence at a SLA level. The ecological factors seemed to have played an important role in H1N1 transmission cycles in Brisbane, Australia.

Performance analysis in team sports : advances from an ecological dynamics approach

Capacity to produce data for performance analysis in sports has been enhanced in the last decade with substantial technological advances. However, current performance analysis methods have been criticised for the lack of a viable theoretical framework to assist on the development of fundamental principles that regulate performance achievement. Our aim in this paper is to discuss ecological dynamics as an explanatory framework for improving analysis and understanding of competitive performance behaviours. We argue that integration of ideas from ecological dynamics into previous approaches to performance analysis advances current understanding of how sport performance emerges from continuous interactions between individual players and teams. Exemplar data from previous studies in association football are presented to illustrate this novel perspective on performance analysis. Limitations of current ecological dynamics research and challenges for future research are discussed in order to improve the meaningfulness of information presented to coaches and managers.

The enemy of music : modeling the behavior of a cultural industry in crisis

The purpose of this explorative study is to contribute to the understanding of current music industry dynamics. The situation is undeniably quite dramatic: Since the turn of the millennium, the global music industry has declined by $ US 6.2 billion in value—a fall of 16.3% in constant dollar terms. IFPI, the trade organization representing the international recording industry, identifies a number of exogenous factors as the main drivers of the downturn. This article suggests that other factors, in addition to those identified by IFPI, may have contributed to the current difficulties. A model is presented which indicates that business strategies which were designed to cope with the challenging business environment have reduced product diversity, damaged profitability, and contributed to the problem they were intended to solve.

The Use of Ecological Design to Achieve Sustainable Development in Queensland, Australia

This series of technical papers arose out of the action by a private entrepreneur to initiate a process beyond mere regulatory compliance in order to achieve best environmental practice at proposed large new visitor gateways to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Because of the complexity of issues involved at such urbanized downstream sites, the range of topics covered is wide – though still only those considered at this juncture to be of management priority. Included on this platform is one introductory paper reviewing the history of environmental management in the field in Queensland, and three papers which seek to appreciate the main techniques by which government contributes to the solutions viz. through the national park, threatened species list, and environmental impact assessment. The history paper was designed to allow the present series to be considered in broad context as well as performance to date. The work emphasizes that much of the fertile land that must be sustained nowadays lies in the province of the private sector, and that the initiative to create any new cost-effective paradigm in ecologically-sustainable practices lies mostly in their hands. In all instances, this strategic approach to large-scale property planning is through ecological design – using field case studies around the immediate biophysical catchment of the development, with attendant focus on the associated legal catchment (the actual development site) and the social catchment (the effective land managers). The first of these has given rise to a document termed a Regional Landscape Strategy, its implementation planned in concert with an Environmental Impact Assessment of the site and with a Strategic Regional Initiative (still being tested in the field) for community engagement. The first document takes into account the aspirations of government as expressed in its broad-scale regional plans.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.